What If the Battle of Actium Was Won by Antony and Cleopatra?

The Actual History

On September 2, 31 BCE, the naval Battle of Actium was fought in the Ionian Sea near the promontory of Actium in Greece. This decisive engagement between the forces of Octavian (the future Emperor Augustus) and the combined forces of Mark Antony and Cleopatra VII of Egypt effectively ended the Final War of the Roman Republic and set the stage for the establishment of the Roman Empire.

The battle was the culmination of years of growing tension between Octavian and Antony, who had once been allies in the Second Triumvirate alongside Marcus Aemilius Lepidus. This political alliance, formed after the assassination of Julius Caesar in 44 BCE, had divided the Roman world among the three men. However, the alliance gradually deteriorated as Octavian consolidated his power in Rome and the western provinces, while Antony established himself in the east, where he began a romantic and political relationship with Cleopatra, the last Ptolemaic ruler of Egypt.

By 32 BCE, the conflict between Octavian and Antony had become irreconcilable. Octavian declared war, officially against Cleopatra, though Antony was the real target. This clever political maneuver allowed Octavian to portray the conflict not as a civil war but as a war against a foreign enemy, with Antony cast as a Roman who had abandoned his heritage for an exotic eastern queen.

Antony and Cleopatra assembled a large fleet and army at Actium on the western coast of Greece. Their combined forces included around 230 warships, many of them large quinqueremes and even larger vessels, along with a substantial land army. Octavian's fleet, commanded by his loyal friend and brilliant admiral Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa, consisted of about 400 ships, generally smaller and more maneuverable than those of their opponents.

The battle began when Antony's fleet attempted to break out of the Gulf of Ambracia and escape to Egypt. Agrippa's more agile ships attacked the center of Antony's line, creating confusion and preventing an orderly escape. During the battle, Cleopatra's squadron of 60 ships suddenly raised their sails and fled through the gap in the Roman lines. Antony, seeing this, transferred from his flagship to a smaller vessel and followed her.

With their leaders gone, Antony's forces fought on for a time but eventually surrendered. Octavian captured or destroyed most of the enemy fleet and took control of Antony's abandoned camp. Antony and Cleopatra escaped to Egypt, but their position was hopeless. The following year, as Octavian's forces closed in on Alexandria, both Antony and Cleopatra committed suicide rather than be captured—Antony by sword, Cleopatra reportedly by allowing an asp (a venomous snake) to bite her.

The victory at Actium left Octavian as the undisputed master of the Roman world. In 27 BCE, he was granted the title "Augustus" by the Senate and established a new political system that maintained the façade of republican government while concentrating real power in his hands. This system, known as the Principate, marked the beginning of the Roman Empire. Augustus ruled for over four decades, establishing the Julio-Claudian dynasty and creating a period of relative peace and prosperity known as the Pax Romana.

The Battle of Actium thus stands as one of history's most consequential military engagements, determining not just the outcome of a civil war but the very nature of the Roman state for centuries to come. It ended the Roman Republic, established the Empire, extinguished the Ptolemaic dynasty in Egypt (which became a Roman province), and set the stage for the political and cultural development of the Mediterranean world under Roman imperial rule.

The Point of Divergence

What if Antony and Cleopatra had won the Battle of Actium? Let's imagine a scenario where, instead of attempting to break out and flee, Antony executed a more effective battle plan that resulted in a decisive victory over Octavian's forces.

Perhaps in this alternate timeline, Antony recognized the superior maneuverability of Octavian's ships and devised tactics to counter it. Maybe he positioned Cleopatra's squadron more strategically, using it to outflank Agrippa's fleet rather than for escape. Or perhaps Antony's larger ships, with their greater height and capacity for marines, successfully employed grappling and boarding tactics that negated the advantage of Octavian's more nimble vessels.

In this scenario, let's envision that Agrippa's fleet was decisively defeated, with many ships captured or sunk, and Agrippa himself either killed or captured. Octavian, who was present at the battle though not in direct command, might have been captured as well, or perhaps forced to flee with the remnants of his fleet.

With their naval forces shattered and their best admiral lost, Octavian's land forces in Greece would have been isolated and vulnerable. Antony, a capable general in his own right, could have followed up his naval victory with a successful campaign against these stranded troops, eliminating Octavian's military presence in the eastern Mediterranean.

This alternate timeline explores how the Roman world—and by extension, world history—might have developed if Antony and Cleopatra had emerged victorious from the Battle of Actium, potentially establishing a dual Roman-Egyptian empire centered on Alexandria rather than the Augustan principate centered on Rome.

Immediate Aftermath

Political Consequences

A victory at Actium would have dramatically altered the political landscape of the Roman world:

Elimination of Octavian: Following his defeat, Octavian would likely have been either killed, captured, or forced to flee to Italy with greatly diminished forces and prestige. If captured, he might have been executed as Julius Caesar's assassins had been, or possibly exiled to a remote location.
Consolidation of Antony's Position: With his primary rival defeated, Antony would have emerged as the dominant Roman leader. He would likely have moved quickly to secure control of the eastern provinces where his support was strongest, while preparing for a campaign into Italy.
Cleopatra's Enhanced Status: A victory would have validated Cleopatra's alliance with Antony and strengthened her position both within Egypt and in the broader Mediterranean world. Her role as a key partner in the defeat of Octavian would have made it difficult for Romans to dismiss her as merely a foreign seductress, as Octavian's propaganda had portrayed her.
Reorganization of the Triumvirate: The Second Triumvirate (technically already expired by 31 BCE) would have been effectively dissolved. Lepidus, the third triumvir who had already been marginalized, would have remained a minor figure. Antony might have established a new power-sharing arrangement, perhaps elevating some of his loyal generals to positions of authority over different regions.

Military Developments

The immediate military situation would have favored Antony and Cleopatra:

Control of the Eastern Mediterranean: Victory at Actium would have given Antony and Cleopatra naval supremacy in the eastern Mediterranean, securing their supply lines and communications between Egypt, Greece, and Asia Minor.
Campaign in Italy: Antony would likely have prepared for a campaign into Italy to eliminate remaining resistance. With control of the eastern legions and now the sea, he would have been in a strong position to invade the Italian peninsula.
Realignment of Military Loyalties: Many of Octavian's troops, seeing the defeat of their leader, might have switched allegiance to Antony, particularly if he offered generous terms. Roman soldiers were often pragmatic about serving the likely victor.
Egyptian Naval Expansion: With their contribution to the victory validated, Egypt under Cleopatra might have invested further in naval power, potentially becoming the dominant maritime force in the Mediterranean.

Regional Reactions

The Mediterranean world would have responded to this dramatic shift in power:

Roman Senate and Italy: The Senate, which had largely aligned with Octavian, would have faced a difficult choice between continued resistance and accommodation with Antony. Some senators might have fled Rome, while others would have prepared to welcome Antony and negotiate terms.
Eastern Kingdoms and Provinces: Client kingdoms and provinces in the East that had already been under Antony's influence would have reaffirmed their loyalty. Those that had hedged their bets might have quickly moved to demonstrate their support for the victor.
Parthian Empire: Rome's eastern rival might have reassessed its position, potentially seeking either to exploit Roman internal divisions or to negotiate more favorable terms with Antony, who had previously campaigned against them.
Western Provinces: Provinces in Gaul, Hispania, and North Africa, which had generally supported Octavian, would have faced uncertainty. Local governors might have prepared for resistance or sought accommodation with Antony's regime.

Long-term Impact

The Antonine-Ptolemaic Regime

Assuming Antony and Cleopatra consolidated their victory, a new political order would have emerged:

Dual Power Center: Rather than a Rome-centered empire, we might have seen the development of a dual power structure with Alexandria serving as an equally important capital. Antony might have spent time in both cities, with Cleopatra primarily based in Egypt.
Status of Egypt: Instead of becoming a Roman province as it did historically, Egypt would likely have maintained a measure of independence while being closely integrated with Roman territories. Cleopatra might have retained her title as Queen of Egypt while also receiving Roman recognition and perhaps even formal authority over certain eastern provinces.
Succession Planning: The children of Antony and Cleopatra—Alexander Helios, Cleopatra Selene, and Ptolemy Philadelphus—as well as Antony's son Antyllus from a previous marriage, would have been positioned as heirs to this combined realm. This might have created a new dynasty with both Roman and Ptolemaic legitimacy.
Governmental Structure: Antony might have established a monarchy more openly than Augustus did historically, perhaps drawing on both Roman and Hellenistic models of kingship. The Roman Senate might have continued to exist but with even less real power than under the historical Principate.

Cultural and Social Evolution

The cultural trajectory of the Mediterranean world would have been significantly altered:

Accelerated Hellenization: Greek cultural influence, already strong in the eastern Mediterranean, might have become more pronounced throughout the Roman world. Alexandria, with its famous library and museum, might have eclipsed or at least equaled Rome as a cultural center.
Egyptian Influence: Egyptian religious concepts, artistic styles, and administrative practices might have had greater impact on Roman civilization. The cult of Isis, already spreading in the Roman world, might have received official promotion.
Different Religious Development: The religious landscape would have evolved differently, potentially affecting the later development and spread of Christianity. A more eastern-oriented empire might have been more receptive to mystery religions and eastern philosophical traditions.
Architectural and Artistic Synthesis: A unique blend of Roman, Greek, and Egyptian artistic and architectural styles might have emerged, creating a distinctive visual culture different from the historical Augustan classicism.

Geopolitical Implications

The geopolitical map would have developed along different lines:

Eastern Focus: With Alexandria as a co-capital, the empire's center of gravity would have shifted eastward. More resources and attention might have been devoted to eastern frontiers and provinces, potentially at the expense of western regions.
Relations with Parthia: Antony might have pursued a more aggressive policy toward the Parthian Empire than Augustus did historically. With secure control of the eastern Mediterranean, he might have launched new campaigns to avenge his earlier defeats and extend Roman influence further east.
Different Expansion Patterns: Rather than the northern expansion into Germany that Augustus attempted (ultimately unsuccessfully), Antony might have focused on consolidating control of the eastern Mediterranean and perhaps expanding further into the Near East or along the North African coast.
Naval Power and Trade: With Egypt's resources and maritime tradition, naval power might have played a more central role in this alternate Roman Empire. Trade routes through the Red Sea to India and beyond might have received greater imperial attention and investment.

Institutional Development

The institutional framework of the Roman state would have evolved differently:

Different Imperial Institutions: The administrative systems developed by Augustus to govern the empire while maintaining republican facades might never have been created. Instead, Antony might have established more openly monarchical institutions, perhaps drawing on both Roman and Ptolemaic models.
Role of the Military: The relationship between the ruler and the army might have developed differently, potentially with greater emphasis on the personal loyalty of troops to their general (Antony) rather than the more institutionalized system Augustus eventually established.
Legal Evolution: Roman law might have incorporated more elements from Hellenistic and Egyptian legal traditions, creating a different legal framework for the Mediterranean world.
Economic Systems: With Egypt—the breadbasket of the Mediterranean—as a central component rather than just another province, economic policies might have been structured differently, perhaps with greater state involvement in grain distribution and trade regulation.

Legacy and Historical Memory

The way later generations understood the ancient world would have been transformed:

Different Classical Heritage: The cultural and political models transmitted to later civilizations would have reflected this Romano-Egyptian synthesis rather than the purely Roman imperial model that historically influenced European civilization.
Historical Narratives: Figures like Cleopatra, vilified in much of historical Roman literature, might instead have been remembered as successful rulers and founders of a dynasty. Octavian/Augustus, revered historically as Rome's first and perhaps greatest emperor, might have been remembered as a failed faction leader.
Linguistic Developments: Greek might have maintained or even strengthened its position as an administrative language alongside Latin, potentially altering the linguistic development of the Mediterranean region and later European languages.
Architectural and Artistic Legacy: The monuments, buildings, and art that survived to influence later periods would have reflected different aesthetic priorities and cultural values, potentially changing the course of Western art and architecture.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Alexandra Ptolemy, historian specializing in Hellenistic Egypt, suggests:

"A victory for Antony and Cleopatra at Actium would have created a fascinating synthesis of Roman and Ptolemaic governance. Cleopatra was a shrewd ruler who understood both Egyptian traditions and Hellenistic administration. Combined with Antony's connections to the Roman military and political elite, they might have established a remarkably stable dual system. Alexandria would likely have become at least as important as Rome, serving as the eastern capital of this hybrid empire. The cultural implications would have been profound—imagine a Rome where Egyptian deities like Isis and Serapis were as prominent as Jupiter and Mars, where Greek remained the language of administration in half the empire, and where the architectural landscape blended Roman engineering with Egyptian monumentality and Greek aesthetics. The children of Antony and Cleopatra, raised with multiple cultural identities, might have created a truly Mediterranean dynasty that transcended the traditional boundaries between Roman and 'barbarian.'"

Dr. Marcus Antonius Severus, expert in late Republican Roman politics, notes:

"We should be cautious about assuming too smooth a transition to an Antonine-Ptolemaic regime. Even with a victory at Actium, Antony would have faced significant challenges. The Roman aristocracy was deeply suspicious of Cleopatra and eastern influences in general. Antony would have needed to carefully balance his relationship with Cleopatra against the need to appease traditional Roman sensibilities. Additionally, Octavian still had substantial support in Italy and the western provinces. A prolonged civil war might have ensued, potentially weakening the empire regardless of the eventual victor. That said, if Antony had prevailed and established a stable regime, Roman history would have followed a dramatically different course. The careful Augustan balance between republican appearances and monarchical reality might have been replaced by a more openly Hellenistic-style monarchy. This could have avoided centuries of constitutional fiction but might have created different tensions within the Roman state."