What If Affirmative Action Was Never Implemented?

The Actual History

Affirmative action in the United States emerged as a policy approach to address historical discrimination and promote diversity, particularly in education and employment. The term first appeared in Executive Order 10925, signed by President John F. Kennedy in 1961, which required government contractors to "take affirmative action to ensure that applicants are employed, and employees are treated during employment, without regard to their race, creed, color, or national origin."

The policy gained significant momentum under President Lyndon B. Johnson, who issued Executive Order 11246 in 1965, expanding Kennedy's order and establishing enforcement mechanisms. Johnson articulated the philosophical underpinning of affirmative action in his 1965 commencement address at Howard University: "You do not take a person who, for years, has been hobbled by chains and liberate him, bring him up to the starting line of a race and then say, 'you are free to compete with all the others,' and still justly believe that you have been completely fair."

Throughout the late 1960s and 1970s, affirmative action policies expanded across government agencies, educational institutions, and private companies. The Philadelphia Plan, implemented under President Nixon in 1969, required federal contractors in construction to set specific goals for hiring minority workers, establishing the quota-based approach that would later become controversial.

The legal battles over affirmative action began almost immediately. In the landmark Regents of the University of California v. Bakke case (1978), the Supreme Court ruled that strict racial quotas were unconstitutional but upheld the consideration of race as one factor in admissions decisions. This established the "diversity rationale" that would become central to subsequent defenses of affirmative action.

The 1980s and 1990s saw increasing challenges to affirmative action policies, with the Reagan and Bush administrations generally opposing them. Nevertheless, major court decisions such as Grutter v. Bollinger (2003) continued to uphold limited forms of race-conscious admissions in higher education.

The debate intensified in the 21st century. In Fisher v. University of Texas (2013 and 2016), the Supreme Court narrowly upheld race-conscious admissions policies while imposing stricter scrutiny. Many states, including California, Michigan, and Washington, banned race-conscious admissions at public universities through ballot initiatives or legislative action.

The conservative shift in the Supreme Court ultimately led to the end of race-conscious affirmative action in higher education. In Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard and Students for Fair Admissions v. University of North Carolina (2023), the Court ruled 6-3 that race-conscious admissions programs at Harvard and UNC violated the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment, effectively ending explicit consideration of race in college admissions nationwide.

Despite ongoing controversy, affirmative action has substantially increased minority representation in higher education, government, and the private sector over its six-decade history. Many institutions have now shifted toward alternative approaches to diversity, including consideration of socioeconomic factors, geographic diversity, and first-generation status, while still attempting to maintain diverse student bodies and workforces.

The Point of Divergence

What if affirmative action policies were never implemented in the United States? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where neither the Kennedy nor Johnson administrations established affirmative action through executive orders, setting American civil rights policy on a markedly different trajectory.

Several plausible divergence points exist for this scenario. First, President Kennedy might have faced stronger opposition from within his administration regarding Executive Order 10925. Attorney General Robert Kennedy, who played a significant role in civil rights policy, might have advocated for a different approach focused solely on anti-discrimination enforcement rather than "affirmative" measures. Under pressure from Southern Democrats and business interests, Kennedy could have moderated the language to remove the affirmative action concept entirely.

Alternatively, the assassination of President Kennedy in November 1963 created a window for policy change when Johnson assumed office. In our timeline, Johnson expanded Kennedy's policies, but in this alternate history, Johnson—known for his political pragmatism—might have calculated that affirmative action would generate too much backlash from white voters. Concerned about maintaining electoral coalitions for his Great Society programs, Johnson might have deliberately avoided the affirmative action approach, instead focusing exclusively on anti-discrimination laws like the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

A third possibility centers on the Philadelphia Plan under Nixon. Though initially opposed to affirmative action, Nixon implemented the Philadelphia Plan for political reasons—to drive a wedge between labor unions and civil rights groups. In this alternate timeline, Nixon might have maintained his ideological opposition to quotas and numerical targets, preventing the establishment of the first significant quota-based system and potentially undermining the development of similar programs.

Regardless of the specific mechanism, this divergence would have profound implications. Without executive orders establishing affirmative action, civil rights progress would likely have followed a different path—one focused on formal legal equality and anti-discrimination enforcement rather than proactive measures to increase minority representation. The "colorblind" approach to civil rights might have become the dominant paradigm much earlier, fundamentally altering American institutions and demographic representation across sectors.

Immediate Aftermath

Civil Rights Movement's Strategic Shift

The absence of affirmative action as a policy tool would have immediately forced civil rights organizations to recalibrate their strategies. The NAACP, Urban League, and other prominent civil rights groups initially welcomed affirmative action as an essential mechanism for translating legal rights into practical opportunities. Without this approach, these organizations would likely have shifted toward alternative strategies:

Legal Enforcement Focus: Civil rights groups would have concentrated more intensely on enforcing existing anti-discrimination laws. The NAACP Legal Defense Fund might have filed even more lawsuits against employers and institutions with patterns of discrimination, seeking specific remedies for individual cases rather than systemic changes.
Economic Empowerment: Leaders like Bayard Rustin, who emphasized economic issues, might have gained greater prominence within the movement. Programs promoting Black capitalism, community development, and workforce training would have received more attention and resources.
Coalition Building: The civil rights movement might have worked more aggressively to build coalitions with labor unions and working-class white organizations around shared economic interests, avoiding the wedge that affirmative action sometimes created between these natural allies.

Educational Institutions Adapt

Higher education would have experienced immediate consequences from the absence of affirmative action policies:

Slower Integration: Elite universities, which began implementing race-conscious admissions in the late 1960s and early 1970s, would have integrated more slowly. Harvard, Yale, Princeton, and similar institutions might have maintained overwhelmingly white student bodies for significantly longer.
Alternative Approaches: Some universities might have developed alternative diversity approaches earlier, including place-based admissions (e.g., accepting top students from all high schools) or socioeconomic considerations. These would likely have been less effective at increasing racial diversity but might have increased economic diversity.
Historical Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs): Without aggressive recruitment by predominantly white institutions, HBCUs would have retained more top Black students. These institutions might have received greater support and investment from the Black community and potentially from government sources as the primary pathway to higher education for many Black Americans.

Employment Patterns and Corporate Response

The workplace would have seen different patterns of integration without the federal government pushing affirmative action:

Federal Contractor Hiring: Without Executive Order 11246 requiring affirmative action from federal contractors, these companies would have maintained significantly lower minority employment rates. Major defense contractors and other businesses with substantial government contracts would have diversified their workforces much more slowly.
Corporate Voluntarism: Some forward-thinking corporations might have still implemented diversity initiatives, particularly in urban areas with significant minority populations. However, these would likely have been more limited in scope and less focused on specific numerical goals.
Public Sector Employment: Government employment, historically an important avenue for Black economic advancement, would have remained important. However, without affirmative action, the rate of integration in federal, state, and local government workforces would have proceeded more slowly, particularly in management positions.

Political Realignment

The absence of affirmative action would have altered political dynamics:

Democratic Party Coalitions: The Democratic Party might have maintained stronger support among working-class white voters without the wedge issue of affirmative action. This could have altered electoral outcomes in the 1970s and 1980s.
Republican Positioning: Without affirmative action to oppose, the Republican Party under Nixon and later Reagan might have developed different approaches to attracting white voters, potentially focusing even more heavily on tax policy, crime, or cultural issues.
Black Political Strategy: Black political leaders might have maintained stronger alliances with labor unions and white liberals, potentially creating different legislative priorities focused more on universal economic programs rather than race-specific remedies.

Early Judicial Developments

The absence of affirmative action would have eliminated a major area of constitutional litigation:

Supreme Court Docket: The Court would never have heard cases like Bakke, Grutter, or Fisher that defined the constitutional parameters of race-conscious policies. This might have allowed the Court to focus more on other areas of civil rights law.
Constitutional Interpretation: Without the need to carve out exceptions to equal protection principles for affirmative action, the Court might have developed a more consistently "colorblind" jurisprudence earlier, potentially affecting other areas of law.

Long-term Impact

Educational Attainment and Professional Advancement

Over decades, the absence of affirmative action would have significantly altered educational and professional trajectories for minorities:

Higher Education Demographics

Elite Institution Demographics: Without affirmative action, elite universities would have remained significantly less diverse through the late 20th and early 21st centuries. A 2003 study by William Bowen and Derek Bok suggested that without race-conscious admissions, Black enrollment at selective colleges would have decreased by 50-75%. In our alternate timeline, this reduction would be the baseline reality.
Professional School Pipeline: Medical schools, law schools, and business schools would have admitted significantly fewer minority students. A 2014 Association of American Medical Colleges study indicated that without race-conscious admissions, Black and Hispanic enrollment in medical schools would decline by 70%. This would have created a persistent shortage of minority professionals across prestigious fields.
Different Educational Pathways: Minority students might have concentrated more heavily in regional public universities, community colleges, and HBCUs. While potentially creating stronger community institutions, this segregation would have limited networking opportunities and access to resources available at elite institutions.

Professional Achievement Gaps

Corporate Leadership: The already slow progress of diversity in corporate leadership would have been even more delayed. Without affirmative action as a catalyst, corporate America might have maintained overwhelmingly white leadership into the 2020s, with minorities making minimal inroads into executive suites and boardrooms.
Academic Faculty: University faculties would have diversified much more slowly. The percentage of minority professors, already low in our timeline (approximately 25% of all faculty positions by 2020), would likely be substantially lower, perhaps remaining below 15% even into the 2020s.
Wealth Accumulation: Professional advancement serves as a critical pathway for wealth building. Without affirmative action facilitating entry into high-paying professions, the racial wealth gap—already substantial in our timeline—would likely be even more pronounced, with cascading effects on homeownership, investment, and intergenerational wealth transfer.

Institutional Development and Corporate Culture

The organizational landscape would have evolved differently without the pressures and incentives created by affirmative action:

Corporate Diversity Evolution

Delayed Diversity Infrastructure: The diversity and inclusion apparatus now common in major corporations emerged largely in response to affirmative action requirements. Without this catalyst, corporate America might have developed these functions decades later and with less institutional commitment.
International Competitiveness: American companies might have lagged in developing the cultural competencies needed to compete in global markets. This could have hampered U.S. business expansion in emerging markets in Africa, Latin America, and Asia where cultural understanding provides competitive advantages.
Alternative Business Networks: Without significant integration of mainstream corporate environments, minority business networks might have developed more extensively as parallel structures. Black, Hispanic, and Asian American business associations might play more central roles in their respective communities' economic development.

Educational Institution Adaptation

Admissions Criteria Evolution: Universities might have developed different approaches to admissions earlier, potentially placing greater emphasis on socioeconomic factors, geographic diversity, or other proxies for race. These approaches would likely have produced less racial diversity but might have increased economic diversity earlier.
Campus Culture: University campuses would likely have remained more culturally homogeneous for longer, potentially delaying the development of multicultural centers, ethnic studies departments, and diverse student organizations that have transformed campus life.
Research Agendas: Academic research priorities might have evolved differently, with potentially less emphasis on topics related to racial disparities, implicit bias, and diversity benefits. This could have created significant gaps in social science and medical research related to minority populations.

Political and Social Developments

The absence of affirmative action would have altered political alignments and social attitudes:

Political Landscape Transformation

Racial Polarization: While affirmative action became a polarizing issue in our timeline, its absence might have resulted in different patterns of political polarization. Republicans might have had less success attracting white voters on this specific issue, though racial tensions would likely have found different expressions.
Civil Rights Legislation: Without affirmative action as a target, conservative political movements might have focused more directly on dismantling other civil rights protections or on preventing new civil rights legislation. The absence of the affirmative action debate might have allowed greater focus on issues like voting rights, housing discrimination, or criminal justice reform.
Coalition Politics: Different coalition patterns might have emerged, possibly maintaining stronger alliances between labor unions and civil rights organizations. Working-class political movements might have remained more multiracial without the wedge of affirmative action preferences.

Evolving Social Attitudes

Diversity Concepts: The language and concepts around diversity might have developed differently. Without institutional affirmative action programs normalizing diversity as a value, American workplaces and universities might have maintained more assimilationist attitudes toward minorities rather than developing multicultural approaches.
Merit Narratives: The debate about affirmative action in our timeline has complicated discussions about merit and achievement. In this alternate timeline, success narratives might focus more exclusively on individual achievement, potentially reinforcing beliefs that systemic barriers are insignificant.
Intergroup Relations: Without the shared experiences that come from diverse educational and workplace settings facilitated by affirmative action, interracial understanding might have developed more slowly. Social segregation might remain more pronounced even into the 2020s.

Contemporary Landscape (2025)

By 2025 in this alternate timeline, American institutions would look markedly different:

Educational Patterns

Elite University Demographics: Top universities might have minority enrollments of 10-15% rather than the 25-30% common in our timeline before the 2023 Supreme Court decision. This would create cascading effects across professions requiring elite credentials.
Educational Inequality: Educational attainment gaps between racial groups would likely be more pronounced. The percentage of Black and Hispanic Americans with advanced degrees might be substantially lower, with significant implications for economic opportunity.
Alternative Pathways: Different educational and career pathways might have gained greater prominence and prestige within minority communities, including entrepreneurship, public service, and community-based professions.

Economic Landscape

Income and Wealth Disparities: The racial wealth gap, already substantial in our timeline, would likely be even more pronounced. Without the professional advancement facilitated by affirmative action, middle-class minority households would have fewer opportunities for significant wealth accumulation.
Geographic Economic Patterns: Economic segregation might be more pronounced, with minority economic development more concentrated in specific urban enclaves rather than dispersed through integration into broader economic structures.
Entrepreneurial Development: Minority entrepreneurship might have developed along different lines, possibly with stronger community-focused businesses but less integration into mainstream corporate supply chains and partnerships.

Social Cohesion and National Identity

Intergroup Understanding: With less interaction in educational and professional settings, interracial understanding might be lower. Social networks would likely remain more racially homogeneous.
National Conversation on Race: The national discourse on race and opportunity might focus more heavily on formal legal equality rather than substantive equality of opportunity. Concepts like systemic racism might be less widely understood or accepted in mainstream discourse.
International Standing: America's international image regarding racial progress might be more negative, potentially affecting diplomatic relationships, particularly with nations in the Global South.

Expert Opinions

Dr. James Wilkerson, Professor of Constitutional Law at Georgetown University, offers this perspective: "The absence of affirmative action would have fundamentally altered our constitutional jurisprudence around race. Without the need to carve out exceptions to equal protection principles for remedial purposes, the Supreme Court would likely have developed a more consistently 'colorblind' interpretation of the Fourteenth Amendment much earlier. This might have affected not just education and employment, but voting rights, housing policy, and other areas where race-conscious remedies have been employed. While conservatives might celebrate this outcome, it would have likely cemented rather than reduced racial disparities by removing a key tool for addressing systemic inequality."

Dr. Alicia Ramirez, Director of the Center for Diversity in Higher Education, suggests: "Without affirmative action as we knew it, higher education institutions would have been forced to develop alternative approaches to diversity much earlier. We might have seen greater emphasis on class-based considerations, geographic diversity, or first-generation status as proxies for race. While these approaches would likely have been less effective at increasing racial diversity specifically, they might have produced greater socioeconomic diversity overall. The elite universities would have remained overwhelmingly white and Asian American longer, but we might have developed a less hierarchical and more regionally diverse higher education ecosystem with stronger regional institutions serving diverse populations."

Professor Thomas Washington, historian and author of "Race and Opportunity in America," provides this analysis: "The civil rights movement without affirmative action would have taken a different strategic direction, likely focusing more intently on economic justice and coalition building with working-class whites. This might have produced less middle-class integration but potentially stronger political coalitions around economic issues. Without the wedge issue of affirmative action preferences, the Republican Party's 'Southern Strategy' might have been less effective at attracting working-class white voters. We might have seen different political alignments emerge, potentially maintaining the New Deal coalition longer. This could have produced greater economic equality overall, though racial integration of elite institutions would have proceeded much more slowly."