What If Berlin's Tempelhof Airport Was Redeveloped Instead of Preserved?

The Actual History

Berlin Tempelhof Airport stands as one of the most historically significant transportation landmarks in Germany and Europe. Designed in the 1930s and famously described by Norman Foster as "the mother of all airports," Tempelhof features a monumental 1.2-kilometer-long curved terminal building that was once among the largest structures in the world. The airport gained international fame during the 1948-49 Berlin Airlift, when Allied forces delivered food, fuel, and supplies to West Berlin during the Soviet blockade, cementing Tempelhof's place in Cold War history as a symbol of freedom and resistance.

By the late 20th century, however, Tempelhof's role in Berlin's aviation infrastructure had diminished. With limited capacity compared to newer facilities and its inner-city location constraining expansion, the airport was slated for closure as part of Berlin's airport reorganization plan. Despite protests and attempts to keep it operational, Tempelhof ceased all aviation operations on October 30, 2008, with city officials citing financial losses, noise pollution, and the planned consolidation of Berlin's air traffic at the expanded Berlin Brandenburg Airport.

Following the closure, the site's future became a contentious political issue. Initially, the Berlin Senate proposed the "Tempelhof Freiheit" (Tempelhof Freedom) development project, which would have transformed the 386-hectare area into a new urban district containing residential housing, commercial spaces, and a large public park. Preliminary plans included up to 4,700 apartments, commercial spaces, and the Berlin State Library, while preserving the historic terminal building.

This redevelopment plan faced significant public opposition, leading to the formation of the "100% Tempelhofer Feld" citizens' initiative in 2011. This group successfully gathered enough signatures to force a public referendum on the site's future. On May 25, 2014, Berliners voted decisively against development, with 64.3% favoring a law to preserve the entire airfield as public open space. The "Tempelhofer Feld Conservation Law" (ThF-Gesetz) effectively prohibited any construction on the former airfield, allowing only minor modifications to support its use as a public park.

Since then, Tempelhof Field has become Europe's largest inner-city open space, drawing millions of visitors annually for recreational activities ranging from kite-flying and urban gardening to cycling and rollerblading along the former runways. The terminal building itself has found new life hosting cultural events, exhibitions, and providing emergency refugee accommodation during the 2015 European migrant crisis. While some critics argue that the preservation represents a missed opportunity to address Berlin's housing shortage, supporters celebrate Tempelhof as a unique urban commons that preserves both historical memory and ecological value in the heart of a growing metropolis.

The Point of Divergence

What if Berlin's Tempelhof Airport had been redeveloped instead of preserved as an urban park? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where the 2014 referendum that decided Tempelhof's fate had a different outcome, allowing the Berlin Senate's development plans to proceed.

The point of divergence occurs on May 25, 2014, when Berliners voted on the future of Tempelhof Field. In our timeline, 64.3% of voters supported preserving the entire airfield as open space, but several factors could have plausibly produced a different result:

First, the Berlin Senate might have mounted a more effective campaign emphasizing the housing crisis. Berlin in 2014 was already experiencing rapidly rising rents and housing shortages. A more compelling presentation of how Tempelhof development could address these issues—perhaps with stronger guarantees of affordable housing percentages and social infrastructure—could have swayed public opinion, especially among younger voters and families struggling with housing costs.

Alternatively, the referendum might have offered a more nuanced compromise proposal rather than the binary choice between complete preservation and development. A third option that promised substantial open space preservation (perhaps 65-70% of the area) alongside carefully planned development zones might have garnered majority support from pragmatic voters.

A third possibility involves timing and turnout. The actual referendum coincided with European Parliament elections, which boosted participation. In our alternate timeline, perhaps weather conditions, competing events, or technical issues at polling stations could have suppressed turnout among preservation-minded voters, particularly in neighborhoods like Kreuzberg and Neukölln that strongly favored the park concept.

In this alternate history, the result is reversed: 58% of Berliners vote against the preservation law, giving the Berlin Senate the mandate to proceed with the "Tempelhof Freiheit" development plan. The following day, Mayor Klaus Wowereit announces that Berlin will move forward with a "responsible, sustainable transformation" of the former airport while "honoring its historical significance and providing substantial green space for future generations."

Immediate Aftermath

Political Fallout and Public Reaction

The aftermath of the failed preservation referendum sent immediate shockwaves through Berlin's political landscape. The 100% Tempelhofer Feld initiative and allied environmental groups expressed profound disappointment, organizing protests in the weeks following the vote. Several thousand demonstrators gathered at Tempelhof on the first weekend after the referendum, forming a human chain around portions of the field they hoped to protect from construction.

Mayor Wowereit, whose popularity had been declining, received an unexpected political boost from the referendum result. Having advocated for development throughout his tenure, he could now claim a mandate to address Berlin's housing challenges through the Tempelhof project. However, recognizing the divisive nature of the vote, his administration quickly announced the formation of a "Tempelhof Dialog" process to incorporate community feedback into the final development plans.

The Berlin Green Party, which had strongly backed the preservation initiative, suffered internal divisions following the defeat. Their more pragmatic wing argued for engaging with the development process to ensure environmental considerations, while hardliners advocated continued resistance through legal challenges and protests. This tension contributed to their weakened position in the 2016 Berlin state elections.

Revised Development Plans

By early 2015, the Berlin Senate unveiled revised plans for "Tempelhof Freiheit 2.0," incorporating some concessions to preservation advocates:

Expanded Green Preservation: The central portion of the airfield (approximately 40% of the total area) would remain undeveloped as a central park, preserving one complete runway as a historical marker and recreational space.
Housing Focus: The development would include 5,500 new housing units (increased from the original 4,700), with a legally binding commitment that 35% would be affordable social housing - a higher percentage than initially proposed.
Education Campus: Plans included a comprehensive education campus with primary and secondary schools, addressing the growing demand for educational facilities in the surrounding neighborhoods.
Innovation Quarter: The northwestern section was designated as an "innovation quarter" targeting technology companies, research institutions, and creative industries, with the pitch that "Berlin's historic gateway to the world would become its gateway to the future."
Architectural Competition: An international architectural competition was announced for the master plan, with requirements to incorporate sustainability principles and respect the site's historical significance.

Initial Development Phase

By late 2015, preliminary work began at Tempelhof, starting with environmental assessments and archaeological surveys. The first physical changes to the site occurred in spring 2016, when construction began on the southeastern edge nearest to Neukölln for the initial residential district.

The Berlin State Library project was fast-tracked, with groundbreaking in autumn 2016 for its new facility adjacent to the terminal building. This strategic choice aimed to demonstrate cultural and intellectual benefits early in the development process.

The historic terminal building itself saw accelerated renovation work, with several wings reopened for expanded cultural uses by 2017. Unlike in our timeline where the building remained underutilized for years, the alternate timeline saw more rapid investment in adapting its spaces for exhibitions, events, and creative industry offices.

Housing Market Effects

The announcement of substantial housing development at Tempelhof had immediate effects on Berlin's property market. In the neighborhoods surrounding Tempelhof—particularly Neukölln, Kreuzberg, and Tempelhof-Schöneberg—property values increased 8-12% in the year following the referendum as investors anticipated the area's transformation.

While housing advocates initially celebrated the plan for new housing stock, gentrification concerns quickly emerged. Despite not being scheduled for completion until 2019-2020, the mere announcement of upscale development accelerated rental increases in adjacent neighborhoods, intensifying displacement pressures on lower-income residents—the very issue the development had partially aimed to address.

Refugee Crisis Response

When the European refugee crisis intensified in 2015, the development plans required adaptation. Unlike our timeline, where the empty hangars and terminal spaces provided emergency accommodation for thousands of refugees, the alternate timeline's active construction sites limited these options. The Berlin Senate temporarily halted construction on certain parcels to erect emergency refugee housing, which later became integrated into the permanent development plan as transitional housing facilities, creating a more distributed approach to refugee accommodation across the site.

Long-term Impact

Urban Transformation by 2025

By 2025, the Tempelhof development has fundamentally transformed Berlin's urban landscape. The 386-hectare site, once an empty field, has become an integrated urban district accommodating approximately 17,000 residents across diverse housing types. The development's phased approach reached completion of its major components in 2024, although some elements continue to evolve:

Residential Districts

The southeastern and western perimeters have been developed into distinctive residential neighborhoods:

Neuköllner Terrassen: The southeastern development adjacent to Neukölln features stepped terrace buildings that maximize sunlight exposure. With 3,200 housing units, this district has become known for its multigenerational living concept, with integrated childcare facilities and senior services within residential complexes.
Tempelhofer Gärten: The western residential area incorporates community gardens between housing blocks, continuing the urban gardening tradition that began during Tempelhof's park phase. This district's 2,300 units emphasize sustainability, with all buildings meeting passive house standards.

Despite the mandated 35% affordable housing quota, the development has not fully addressed Berlin's housing affordability crisis. Average rents in the new districts exceed those in surrounding neighborhoods by approximately 15%, reflecting the premium associated with new construction and amenities. Housing advocacy groups point to this outcome as validation of their original concerns about the project.

Innovation Quarter

The "Tempelhof Innovation Quarter" occupying the northwestern section has become a significant economic engine for Berlin:

The area hosts over 200 technology companies ranging from startups to established firms, employing approximately 5,000 people in technology and creative sectors.
The German Aerospace Center (DLR) established a urban mobility research campus focusing on electric aviation and drone technology—a nod to the site's aviation heritage.
Annual economic output from this district is estimated at €450 million, generating substantial tax revenue for Berlin.

Cultural Infrastructure

The former terminal building has been fully renovated and repurposed:

The central hangar spaces host the "Berlin Technology Museum" focused on aviation and communications technology.
The Berlin State Library's new wing has become an architectural landmark drawing over 500,000 visitors annually.
The "Tempelhof Creative Campus" occupies the former administrative spaces, providing subsidized studios and workshops for artists and designers.

Preserved Central Park

The preserved central portion of the airfield, now known as "Tempelhofer Park," covers approximately 155 hectares:

One complete runway has been preserved as a historical marker and recreational space, popular for cycling, inline skating, and community events.
The park features restored segments of native meadow ecosystems, supporting greater biodiversity than the original airfield.
Regular open-air concerts and cultural festivals utilize the open space during summer months, with an annual "Tempelhof Festival" drawing up to 100,000 visitors.

Environmental Impacts

The environmental consequences of Tempelhof's development have been mixed:

Positive Outcomes

The development incorporated advanced sustainability standards, with all new buildings meeting strict energy efficiency requirements and 60% featuring green roofs.
A district heating system powered by renewable energy sources serves the entire development, reducing carbon emissions compared to conventional urban development.
Stormwater management systems throughout the site have improved Berlin's resilience to heavy rainfall events, which have increased due to climate change.

Negative Outcomes

The loss of 60% of the open space has reduced Tempelhof's effectiveness as an urban "cool island," contributing to a measurable 1.2°C temperature increase in surrounding neighborhoods during summer heat waves.
The site's value as habitat for certain bird species has declined significantly, with several species that nested in the former airfield relocating elsewhere or experiencing population declines.
Despite extensive public transportation connections, the development has generated approximately 12,000 additional daily car trips in central Berlin, increasing localized air pollution.

Socioeconomic Effects on Surrounding Neighborhoods

The development has triggered substantial changes in Berlin's social geography:

Accelerated Gentrification

The adjacent neighborhoods of northern Neukölln and eastern Kreuzberg have experienced accelerated gentrification. Between 2015-2025:

Average rents increased 68% in these areas (compared to a citywide average of 45%).
The demographic composition shifted noticeably, with the percentage of residents with immigrant backgrounds decreasing from 53% to 41% in northern Neukölln.
Traditional small businesses have been replaced by upscale cafes, boutiques, and service businesses catering to the new demographic.

New Social Divisions

The development has created new spatial divisions within Berlin:

The Tempelhof development itself has become demographically distinct from its surroundings, with higher average incomes and education levels.
Community surveys indicate limited social interaction between residents of the new development and long-established communities in adjacent neighborhoods.
School enrollment patterns show evidence of educational segregation, with families in the new development often choosing schools within the development rather than established neighborhood schools.

Political Ripple Effects

The Tempelhof development decision triggered lasting changes in Berlin's political landscape:

Public skepticism toward large-scale urban development projects increased, with subsequent proposals facing stricter scrutiny and more robust public participation requirements.
The Berlin Citizens' Initiative Law was strengthened in 2018, lowering thresholds for calling referendums and making their results more binding on government actions.
Environmental groups gained significant political influence, culminating in the Green Party entering Berlin's governing coalition in 2021 with explicit promises to prevent "another Tempelhof" through stronger urban nature preservation policies.
The successful Tempelhof development model influenced approaches to other former industrial and transportation sites throughout Germany, with Hamburg and Munich adopting similar public-private partnership structures for major urban transformations.

International Influence

By 2025, the Tempelhof redevelopment has become an internationally studied case in urban planning:

Urban planners from cities worldwide regularly tour the site to study its mixed-use integration and partial preservation approach.
The project has won several international awards for urban design, including the 2022 European Urban Planning Award for its innovation quarter design.
Academic research on the "Tempelhof Effect" has generated numerous publications analyzing the balance between development pressures and preservation needs in growing global cities.
The development has become a standard case study in urban planning curricula, particularly for exploring tensions between housing needs, economic development, and environmental preservation.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Hannah Müller, Professor of Urban Planning at Technical University Berlin, offers this perspective: "The Tempelhof redevelopment represents both achievement and missed opportunity. On one hand, Berlin gained badly needed housing and a dynamic innovation district that has strengthened the city's economic position. On the other hand, the loss of Europe's largest inner-city open space has diminished Berlin's ecological resilience at a time when climate change demands more urban green infrastructure, not less. The most concerning legacy is how the development accelerated socioeconomic segregation in central Berlin, creating what I call 'islands of privilege' that remain disconnected from their surroundings. Future cities facing similar decisions should consider more incremental approaches that allow for adaptation as impacts become apparent."

Felix Weber, Director of the Berlin Housing Alliance, provides a contrasting view: "Looking back from 2025, the decision to develop Tempelhof was undoubtedly correct, though imperfectly executed. Berlin desperately needed housing in 2014, and that need has only intensified. The 5,500 new units at Tempelhof have provided homes for thousands of families who might otherwise have been forced to the distant periphery. The mistake wasn't developing Tempelhof—it was not simultaneously implementing stronger rent control and anti-displacement measures in surrounding neighborhoods. We should learn from this that urban development must happen concurrently with robust social protection policies, not in isolation from them."

Dr. Maria Schmidt, Environmental Economist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, analyzes the ecological dimension: "The Tempelhof development represents a measurable loss to Berlin's environmental resilience. Our research shows that the reduction of open space has diminished the city's ability to mitigate urban heat island effects precisely when climate change is making this function more critical. While the developers incorporated many green building features, these do not compensate for the ecosystem services provided by the original open field. One clear lesson is that large open spaces provide cumulative benefits that cannot be replicated through fragmented green infrastructure. Cities increasingly need to value open space not just for recreation but as critical climate adaptation infrastructure."