What If Boise Managed Its Growth Differently During Its Population Boom?

The Actual History

Boise, Idaho experienced unprecedented population growth in the early 21st century, transforming from a modest regional hub to one of America's fastest-growing metropolitan areas. Between 2010 and 2020, the city's population surged from approximately 205,000 to 235,000, with the broader metropolitan area growing from about 616,000 to over 770,000 residents—a growth rate more than double the national average. This trend accelerated further during the COVID-19 pandemic, with Ada County alone growing by over 3.3% in 2021.

Several factors contributed to this dramatic influx. Boise consistently ranked in national publications as one of America's most livable cities, attracting attention for its outdoor recreational opportunities, vibrant downtown, lower crime rates, and proximity to natural amenities like the Boise River, foothills, and nearby mountains. The city also benefited from significant economic development, with major employers including Micron Technology, Hewlett-Packard, Simplot, Albertsons, and St. Luke's Health System providing stable employment opportunities.

The city's growth was further fueled by migration from higher-cost West Coast locations like California, Oregon, and Washington. As remote work became increasingly common, especially after 2020, many professionals sought Boise's combination of urban amenities and natural surroundings at a perceived lower cost of living.

However, this rapid growth created significant challenges. Housing prices skyrocketed, with median home values in Ada County increasing by over 118% between 2015 and 2022, from approximately $220,000 to over $500,000, reaching peaks above $570,000 in 2022. Rental costs saw similar dramatic increases, with average rents rising more than 40% between 2015 and 2022. This housing crisis priced out many long-time residents and prevented young locals from entering the housing market.

Infrastructure struggled to keep pace with growth. Traffic congestion worsened substantially, particularly along key corridors like State Street, Eagle Road, and Interstate 84. Public transportation, primarily operated by Valley Regional Transit, remained limited with infrequent service and insufficient coverage. Water resources came under increasing pressure, while public schools faced overcrowding.

The city's response to these challenges was reactive rather than proactive. Zoning regulations remained largely unchanged until 2019-2020, when modest density increases were allowed. Affordable housing initiatives were limited, with programs like the city's Housing Land Trust only providing small-scale solutions. Infrastructure investments, while significant, consistently lagged behind population growth. The 2018 rejection of a $200 million levy for open space and clean water protection further limited the city's ability to preserve natural areas during development.

By 2023, Boise had fundamentally transformed. While economic growth created new opportunities, many long-time residents felt displaced by rising costs and changing community character. The city's previously affordable character had largely vanished, replaced by concerns about becoming "the next Boulder" or "the next Austin"—cities whose rapid growth similarly reduced affordability and altered their fundamental character.

The Point of Divergence

What if Boise had implemented a comprehensive growth management strategy starting around 2010, when early signs of accelerated population growth were becoming evident? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where Boise's civic leaders, recognizing the potential for dramatic population increases, proactively developed and implemented a holistic approach to managing growth rather than reacting to its effects.

The point of divergence occurs in 2011, when newly elected Mayor David Bieter, serving his third term, forms a special Growth Management Task Force comprising urban planners, economists, housing experts, transportation specialists, environmental scientists, and community representatives. This group is charged with developing a 30-year strategy for sustainable growth based on projections showing Boise could attract 100,000+ new residents over the next two decades.

There are several plausible mechanisms that could have enabled this divergence:

First, civic leadership might have recognized earlier warning signs from other rapidly growing western cities like Portland, Denver, and Austin, which had already experienced housing affordability crises and infrastructure strain. Boise's leaders could have studied these cautionary examples and determined to chart a different course.

Second, environmental concerns might have played a larger role in early planning discussions. In this alternate timeline, the impact of unchecked growth on the Boise foothills, the Boise River, and surrounding agricultural lands becomes a rallying point for residents demanding more thoughtful development patterns.

Third, a stronger coalition between business interests and community advocates might have formed earlier. Rather than positioning growth as a business-versus-community issue, this alternate timeline sees tech companies like Micron and HP partnering with neighborhood associations to advocate for balanced growth that maintains Boise's character while accommodating economic development.

Finally, the city might have secured a significant federal urban planning grant in 2011-2012, providing both the resources and external expertise to develop a comprehensive growth strategy before the most dramatic population increases occurred.

This divergence doesn't prevent Boise's growth but fundamentally alters how the city prepares for and manages the population boom that follows, setting the stage for a dramatically different development pattern.

Immediate Aftermath

Zoning and Housing Policy Transformations

Within the first three years following the Point of Divergence (2011-2014), Boise implements substantial zoning reforms centered on the "missing middle" housing concept:

Form-Based Code Adoption: Rather than traditional use-based zoning, Boise implements form-based code in central neighborhoods and along key corridors, regulating building form rather than use. This allows duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, cottage courts, and small apartment buildings in previously single-family-only areas without disrupting neighborhood character.
Transit-Oriented Development Zones: The city designates Transit-Oriented Development zones along State Street, Vista Avenue, Broadway, and other major corridors, allowing significantly increased density within a quarter mile of planned high-frequency transit stops.
Inclusionary Zoning Program: By 2013, Boise implements a mandatory inclusionary zoning ordinance requiring 15-20% affordable units in all new developments over 10 units, with alternatives for in-lieu fees or off-site development of affordable housing. Unlike our timeline, where Idaho later passed a state law prohibiting inclusionary zoning, in this alternate timeline Boise's early implementation creates a grandfather clause when the state legislature considers similar restrictions.
ADU Expansion: Accessory Dwelling Unit regulations are liberalized in 2012, eliminating parking requirements, owner-occupancy requirements, and size limitations for properties near transit, creating thousands of naturally affordable housing units through incremental density.

Transportation Planning Initiative

Transportation planning undergoes a dramatic shift under the Growth Management Task Force's guidance:

BRT Implementation Timeline: Instead of endless study phases as in our timeline, Boise and ACHD commit to building a Bus Rapid Transit system along the State Street corridor by 2017, creating dedicated bus lanes, signal priority, and modern stations with level boarding. Planning begins simultaneously for additional BRT corridors on Vista Avenue and Fairview.
Complete Streets Policy: The Ada County Highway District adopts a strong Complete Streets policy by 2012, prioritizing safe access for all users—pedestrians, cyclists, transit riders, and motorists—in all new road projects and reconstructions.
Commuter Rail Study and Land Banking: Rather than dismissing the idea as financially unfeasible, Boise partners with neighboring communities to purchase and preserve the rail corridor connecting Caldwell, Nampa, Meridian, and Boise for future commuter rail, even while initial service might be decades away.
Bike Network Expansion: The city accelerates development of protected bike lanes and paths, creating a complete network of safe cycling infrastructure rather than the disconnected fragments that emerged in our timeline.

Housing Affordability Measures

In this alternate timeline, Boise takes early action to prevent rather than respond to the housing affordability crisis:

Housing Trust Fund: By 2014, Boise establishes a dedicated Housing Trust Fund with initial funding of $20 million through a voter-approved bond measure, creating a sustainable source of funding for affordable housing development and preservation.
Community Land Trust Scale-Up: Rather than the small pilot program seen in our timeline, Boise partners with the Idaho Housing and Finance Association to establish a large-scale Community Land Trust in 2012, purchasing land throughout the city while values are still relatively affordable and preserving it for permanently affordable housing.
Tax Increment Financing for Affordability: The city strategically uses urban renewal districts and tax increment financing to fund affordable housing within new developments, particularly in areas like the Bench and West End that would later face significant gentrification pressure.
Property Tax Circuit Breaker: Working with state legislators, Boise helps design and implement an expanded property tax circuit breaker program specifically designed to prevent displacement of long-term, lower-income residents due to rising property values and taxes.

Public Response and Community Engagement

The implementation of these measures generates significant public discussion and engagement:

Mixed Initial Reaction: Some established homeowners and property rights advocates initially resist increased density and regulatory measures, arguing they infringe on property rights and neighborhood character. However, the Growth Management Task Force's transparent process and extensive community outreach helps build understanding and support.
Business Community Alliance: Unlike our timeline's occasional business-versus-community tensions, Boise's Chamber of Commerce becomes a key ally in implementing growth management strategies, recognizing that affordability and quality infrastructure are crucial for talent attraction and retention.
Neighborhood Planning Process: To address concerns about top-down planning, the city launches a robust neighborhood planning process, allowing communities to help shape how growth occurs in their areas while still accommodating their share of new development.
Early Wins Build Momentum: When the first transit-oriented development opens in 2015 near the corner of State Street and Collister, featuring ground-floor retail, mixed-income housing, and a public plaza connected to a new BRT station, public opinion begins shifting as residents see the benefits of planned growth.

By 2015-2016, these early initiatives establish a foundation for managing the even more dramatic growth acceleration that occurs during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, positioning Boise to absorb new residents without the severe affordability crisis and infrastructure strain experienced in our timeline.

Long-term Impact

Housing Market Evolution (2015-2025)

In this alternate timeline, Boise's housing market develops along a dramatically different trajectory:

More Gradual Price Appreciation: While housing prices still increase due to growing demand, the median home price in 2022 reaches approximately $380,000 rather than $570,000, representing a 73% increase from 2015 levels instead of the 118%+ increase in our timeline. This moderation occurs primarily because of increased housing supply across diverse housing types.
Housing Type Diversification: By 2020, roughly 40% of new housing units in Boise are "missing middle" housing types like duplexes, cottage courts, townhomes, and small apartment buildings, significantly increasing density without relying on large apartment complexes or single-family sprawl.
Rental Market Stabilization: Average rents increase approximately, but the rate of increase is roughly half that of our timeline. By 2022, approximately 25% of rental units are income-restricted affordable housing, compared to less than 5% in our timeline, creating economic diversity within neighborhoods.
Reduced Displacement: With property tax circuit breakers, supportive housing policies, and tenant protections in place, the displacement of long-term residents decreases significantly. Neighborhoods like the Bench, which experienced substantial gentrification in our timeline, maintain much of their economic diversity while still seeing physical improvements and new amenities.
Construction Innovation: Facing different market incentives, local builders increasingly adopt innovative construction methods including modular construction, cross-laminated timber, and adaptive reuse of existing structures, reducing environmental impact while controlling costs.

Transportation System Transformation (2015-2025)

The alternate Boise's transportation system evolves to support the growth management strategy:

Functional Transit Network: By 2025, Boise has three operational BRT lines (State Street, Fairview Avenue, and Vista Avenue), with 15-minute peak service and dedicated lanes at congested intersections. Ridership exceeds 25,000 daily trips, compared to approximately 4,000 in our timeline's traditional bus service.
Transit-Oriented Development Corridors: High-frequency transit corridors become the focus of development, with mixed-use buildings featuring ground-floor retail and upper-floor housing creating walkable nodes throughout the city. By 2025, over 40% of new housing units are located within these transit-oriented development zones.
Commuter Rail Initiation: In 2024, initial commuter rail service begins between Caldwell and downtown Boise, using the preserved rail corridor and operating limited peak-hour service. While modest in scope, it lays the groundwork for future expansion and creates development opportunities around station areas.
Reduced Vehicle Dependency: Transportation mode share shifts significantly, with the percentage of single-occupancy vehicle trips dropping from 85% in 2010 to 65% by 2025. Walking, cycling, and transit use all see substantial increases, supported by infrastructure investments and land use changes that make car-free living viable in many neighborhoods.
Traffic Congestion Mitigation: While traffic still increases due to population growth, strategic investments in transportation demand management, improved intersections, and alternative transportation options prevent the severe congestion seen in our timeline along corridors like Eagle Road and Interstate 84.

Environmental and Urban Form Outcomes (2015-2025)

The physical development of the city takes a dramatically different form:

Foothills Preservation: Instead of development creeping higher into the Boise foothills, the successful 2015 open space levy (which failed in our timeline) secures protection for an additional 10,000 acres of foothills, creating an expanded ridge-to-rivers trail system while limiting high-end development in fire-prone areas.
Agricultural Land Conservation: Through transfer of development rights programs, conservation easements, and urban growth boundaries established in partnership with Ada County, thousands of acres of farmland in the Treasure Valley remain in agricultural production rather than converting to subdivision development.
Urban Forest Expansion: Boise's urban forest canopy coverage increases from approximately 16% in 2010 to 25% by 2025 through aggressive street tree planting, development requirements, and public land management, mitigating the urban heat island effect.
Infill Development Focus: Rather than primarily expanding outward, approximately 65% of new development occurs as infill within existing city boundaries, utilizing vacant and underutilized parcels, redeveloping aging strip malls, and adaptively reusing historic structures.
Fifteen-Minute Neighborhoods: By focusing on creating complete neighborhoods where daily needs can be met within a fifteen-minute walk or bike ride, the city reduces car dependency while creating distinct community centers throughout Boise.

Economic and Social Impacts (2015-2025)

The alternate growth management approach creates ripple effects throughout Boise's economy and social fabric:

Workforce Recruitment Advantage: As other western cities struggle with extreme housing affordability challenges, Boise's balanced growth creates a competitive advantage for local companies recruiting talent. Micron and HP expand their Boise operations significantly between 2018-2022, citing the city's quality of life and relative affordability compared to other tech hubs.
Small Business Viability: More affordable commercial spaces along transit corridors, combined with policies supporting local businesses, create a thriving small business ecosystem. Local retail and service businesses comprise approximately 70% of new commercial establishments, compared to 45% in our timeline.
Economic Diversification: Beyond the dominant tech sector, Boise sees expansion in sustainable industries including renewable energy, green building, sustainable agriculture, and outdoor recreation, creating a more resilient local economy.
Decreased Economic Segregation: Inclusionary zoning and strategic affordable housing placement reduce economic segregation, with mixed-income neighborhoods becoming the norm rather than the exception. Schools maintain greater socioeconomic diversity, benefitting educational outcomes.
Political Evolution: The successful management of growth creates unusual political coalitions, with traditional pro-development business interests working alongside community advocates on smart growth policies. This collaborative approach eventually inspires similar efforts in Nampa, Meridian, and other Treasure Valley communities.

Pandemic Response Differences (2020-2022)

When COVID-19 arrives, alternate-timeline Boise is better positioned to absorb the accelerated migration:

Accelerated Housing Production: Having established streamlined permitting for multi-family and missing middle housing, Boise rapidly scales production during 2020-2022, building approximately 15,000 new housing units (50% more than in our timeline) to accommodate pandemic-era migrants.
Remote Worker Integration: Instead of feeling overwhelmed by California transplants, established transit corridors and mixed-use developments help integrate new remote workers into the community, reducing the "us versus them" sentiment that emerged in our timeline.
Public Space Utilization: The well-established network of parks, plazas, and public spaces proves invaluable during the pandemic, allowing for safe outdoor gathering and activating commercial districts even during COVID restrictions.

By 2025, the alternate Boise demonstrates what might have been possible with proactive growth management: a city that has grown substantially in population while maintaining affordability, enhancing environmental assets, improving mobility options, and preserving its distinctive character and quality of life.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Amanda Rodriguez, Professor of Urban Planning at Boise State University, offers this perspective: "What makes this alternate scenario particularly interesting is that it doesn't rely on fantastical assumptions or unlimited resources. Everything in this scenario—from inclusionary zoning to transit-oriented development to community land trusts—has been successfully implemented in other mid-sized American cities. The difference is primarily one of timing and political will. Had Boise implemented these strategies in 2010-2012, before the most dramatic growth acceleration occurred, the city could have shaped rather than been shaped by its population boom. The lesson here isn't that growth can or should be prevented, but that communities can choose how they grow, assuming they act before market forces overwhelm public policy options."

Michael Chen, Former Director of the Urban Land Institute's Northwest Division, analyzes the economic implications: "The fascinating element of this counterfactual scenario is that it likely would have created more total wealth, just distributed differently. In our actual timeline, enormous wealth was concentrated among existing homeowners and land speculators, while creating significant economic hardship for renters and new entrants to the housing market. In the alternate timeline, the economic benefits of growth would have been more widely shared. Developers would still have profited, but through increased production volume rather than extreme price escalation. The business community would have benefited from a more affordable workforce. And crucially, the city would have avoided the affordability crisis that ultimately undermines the very qualities that made Boise attractive in the first place. Sometimes the most pro-growth policy is one that actively manages growth rather than simply letting the market run unchecked."

Elaine Clegg, former Boise City Council President and transportation advocate, reflects: "What strikes me about this alternate timeline is how it might have changed the regional dynamics. In our actual history, Boise's growth and rising prices pushed development outward to Meridian, Kuna, Star, and Nampa, creating longer commutes and greater infrastructure challenges. With better managed growth, we might have seen more cooperation between these communities on regional solutions rather than competition. The lost opportunity wasn't just within Boise's boundaries but throughout the Treasure Valley. That said, it's never too late to implement better policies. While we can't go back to 2010 housing prices, we can still make decisions today that will determine whether the Boise of 2035 is more or less affordable, more or less sustainable, and more or less livable than what we have now."