What If Canada Had Implemented Proportional Representation in 2017?

The Actual History

During the 2015 Canadian federal election campaign, Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau made a bold promise that resonated with many voters: "We are committed to ensuring that the 2015 election will be the last federal election using first-past-the-post." This pledge to reform Canada's electoral system became a significant part of the Liberal platform and helped differentiate Trudeau from the incumbent Conservative government.

After winning a majority government in October 2015, the Trudeau administration began the process of exploring electoral reform:

Special Committee Formation: In June 2016, the government established the Special Committee on Electoral Reform, composed of representatives from all parties in Parliament. The committee conducted extensive consultations, including public hearings across the country, expert testimony, and online submissions.
Committee Recommendations: In December 2016, the committee released its report, recommending that Canada adopt a form of proportional representation (PR). Specifically, the committee suggested a system with a "Gallagher Index" (a measure of disproportionality between votes received and seats allocated) of 5 or less. The report also recommended that a referendum be held before implementing any new system.
Government Response: Despite the committee's recommendations, the government's enthusiasm for electoral reform began to wane. In a mandate letter to newly appointed Democratic Institutions Minister Karina Gould in February 2017, Trudeau officially abandoned the electoral reform promise, stating: "A clear preference for a new electoral system, let alone a consensus, has not emerged. Furthermore, without a clear preference or a clear question, a referendum would not be in Canada's interest."

The decision to abandon electoral reform was met with significant criticism from opposition parties and advocacy groups who had taken the Liberals at their word. The NDP and Green Party, which stood to gain seats under proportional representation, were particularly vocal in their disappointment. Many voters who had supported the Liberals partly because of this promise felt betrayed.

In subsequent elections (2019 and 2021), Canada continued to use the first-past-the-post system, which produced results typical of this system:

In 2019, the Liberals won a minority government with 33.1% of the popular vote but 46.5% of the seats.
In 2021, the Liberals again won a minority government with 32.6% of the popular vote and 47.2% of the seats.

These results highlighted the disproportionality that critics of first-past-the-post had identified: parties could form governments with significantly less than majority support, while parties with more diffuse support (like the Green Party) remained underrepresented in Parliament.

The abandonment of electoral reform became a symbol of unfulfilled promises for many Canadians and contributed to increased cynicism about political commitments. By 2025, electoral reform had faded as a prominent national issue, though it remained an important cause for some advocacy groups and political scientists.

This history raises an intriguing counterfactual question: What if the Trudeau government had followed through on its promise and implemented a form of proportional representation in time for the 2019 federal election? How might Canadian politics and governance have evolved differently?

The Point of Divergence

In this alternate timeline, the divergence occurs in February 2017. Instead of abandoning electoral reform, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau makes a different calculation about the political risks and benefits of proceeding with the initiative.

Several factors contribute to this different decision:

Internal Advocacy: In this timeline, several influential cabinet ministers—particularly those from urban ridings with strong reform support—mount a more effective internal campaign to convince Trudeau that abandoning the promise would cause lasting damage to the Liberal brand among progressive voters.
Public Opinion Shift: A series of well-publicized polls in January 2017 shows stronger public support for electoral reform than the government had anticipated, particularly in key Liberal constituencies. This data challenges the narrative that there is "no consensus" for change.
Strategic Calculation: Trudeau and his advisors conclude that while the Liberals might lose some seats under proportional representation, they could position themselves as the natural governing party in a new era of coalition politics—potentially extending their time in power through strategic alliances.
Legacy Considerations: Trudeau, mindful of his father's constitutional legacy, becomes convinced that electoral reform could be his own historic contribution to Canadian democracy—a calculation that outweighs short-term political concerns.

On February 15, 2017, rather than announcing the abandonment of electoral reform, Democratic Institutions Minister Karina Gould instead unveils "A Path Forward for Electoral Reform." The plan includes:

Adoption of a Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) system similar to the models used in Germany and New Zealand
A transition period with extensive public education
Implementation in time for the 2019 federal election
A mandatory review after two election cycles

The announcement generates immediate controversy. Conservative critics argue that such a fundamental change requires a referendum, while the NDP and Greens celebrate the decision but express skepticism about the government's commitment to follow through. Business leaders express concern about potential instability, while electoral reform advocates mobilize to support the initiative.

Trudeau defends the decision in a national address, arguing that the extensive consultation process has provided sufficient democratic legitimacy and that the change fulfills a clear campaign promise. He frames the reform as part of Canada's democratic evolution and a necessary modernization of an outdated system.

The government introduces the Electoral Modernization Act in April 2017, setting in motion a process that will fundamentally reshape Canadian democracy.

Immediate Aftermath

Legislative Implementation

The path from announcement to implementation proves challenging but ultimately successful:

Parliamentary Battle: The Electoral Modernization Act faces fierce opposition from the Conservative Party, which employs procedural tactics to delay its passage. After extended debate and committee study, the legislation passes in November 2017 with Liberal, NDP, and Green support.
System Design: The legislation establishes a Mixed-Member Proportional system with 60% of MPs elected in single-member districts and 40% from party lists to ensure overall proportionality. The system includes a 5% threshold for parties to qualify for list seats, balancing proportionality with the need to prevent extreme fragmentation.
Boundary Commission: An expedited Electoral Boundaries Commission process begins in January 2018 to redraw constituencies, reducing their number to accommodate the new list MPs while maintaining the same total number of parliamentarians.
Implementation Timeline: Elections Canada receives significant additional funding to prepare for the new system, including updates to ballots, counting procedures, and public education. The Chief Electoral Officer warns of implementation challenges but commits to being ready for the 2019 election.
Public Education Campaign: Beginning in September 2018, the government launches a comprehensive public education campaign called "Your Vote Counts" to explain the new system. The campaign includes television advertisements, social media content, and information sessions across the country.

Political Realignment

The impending change triggers significant shifts in the political landscape:

Party Adaptation: Political parties begin adapting their strategies to the new reality. The Liberals focus on maintaining broad appeal to remain competitive in both constituency races and the proportional component. The Conservatives worry about vote splitting with potential new right-wing parties but benefit from a strong base in rural constituencies.
New Party Formation: Anticipating better chances of winning seats, several new political parties form or gain momentum. The most significant is the Progressive Canadian Party, positioning itself between the NDP and Liberals, and the Canadian Nationalist Party, adopting populist right-wing positions to the right of the Conservatives.
Internal Party Tensions: All major parties experience internal tensions over candidate selection for party lists. The Liberals adopt a regional balance approach, while the Conservatives implement a member-driven ranking system. The NDP prioritizes diversity in its list construction.
Strategic Positioning: Parties begin preparing for a post-election landscape where majority governments will be rare. The Liberals and NDP quietly explore areas of potential cooperation, while the Conservatives focus on strategies to build a broader right-of-center coalition.

Public and Media Reaction

The reaction to the reform reveals complex attitudes toward democratic change:

Media Coverage: Media coverage is initially skeptical, focusing on implementation challenges and potential instability. However, as the education campaign progresses, coverage becomes more balanced, with increased discussion of how the system works in other countries.
Public Opinion: Public opinion remains divided, with approximately 45% supporting the change, 35% opposing, and 20% uncertain. Support is strongest among younger voters, urban residents, and those with higher education levels.
Regional Variations: Support varies significantly by region, with strongest support in British Columbia (which had held provincial referendums on electoral reform) and Quebec (with its multiparty tradition). Alberta and Saskatchewan show the strongest opposition, with concerns about diminished regional influence.
International Attention: The reform attracts significant international attention, with observers noting Canada's shift away from the Westminster model. Democracy advocates globally cite Canada as an example of peaceful democratic evolution.

Economic and Governance Impacts

The anticipation of change affects governance and economic planning:

Policy Approach: The Liberal government begins adjusting its governance approach, becoming more consultative with opposition parties on major legislation in preparation for a likely minority or coalition government after the next election.
Market Reaction: Financial markets initially react negatively to the uncertainty, with a modest decline in the Canadian dollar and stock market. However, as implementation details clarify, markets stabilize, recognizing that dramatic policy shifts remain unlikely in Canada's consensus-oriented political culture.
Government Stability Concerns: Business associations express concern about potential governance instability, while labor unions and civil society organizations generally welcome the prospect of more representative government. The government emphasizes that countries with proportional systems maintain stable and effective governance.
Provincial Implications: Several provinces begin exploring their own electoral reform initiatives, with British Columbia accelerating plans for another referendum and Quebec's political parties discussing potential provincial reforms.

By early 2019, as the federal election approaches, the new system is fully implemented and Elections Canada declares its readiness to conduct the first proportional election in Canadian history. Political parties have adapted their strategies, candidates have been selected for both constituencies and party lists, and voters have been educated about the new ballots they will use.

The stage is set for a historic election that will fundamentally reshape Canadian politics.

Long-term Impact

The 2019 Election and New Parliament

The October 2019 federal election under the new Mixed-Member Proportional system produces results dramatically different from our timeline:

Electoral Results:
- Liberal Party: 29% of the vote, 98 seats (down from 184 in 2015)
- Conservative Party: 34% of the vote, 115 seats (up from 99 in 2015)
- New Democratic Party: 16% of the vote, 54 seats (up from 44 in 2015)
- Green Party: 7% of the vote, 24 seats (up from 1 in 2015)
- Bloc Québécois: 8% of the vote, 27 seats (up from 10 in 2015)
- People's Party: 5% of the vote, 17 seats (new party)
- Progressive Canadian Party: 1% of the vote, 0 seats (below threshold)
Government Formation: After three weeks of negotiations, the Liberals and NDP form a formal coalition government, with the Liberals' Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister and the NDP's Jagmeet Singh as Deputy Prime Minister. The agreement includes specific policy commitments on climate change, pharmacare, and indigenous reconciliation.
Parliamentary Functioning: The new Parliament develops different procedural norms. Committee chairs are distributed proportionally among all parties, and the Speaker enforces more collaborative debate rules. Cross-party legislative working groups become common for developing major legislation.
Opposition Dynamics: The Conservatives, as the largest party but in opposition, struggle initially to adapt to the new reality where simply criticizing the government is insufficient. By 2020, they develop a more constructive opposition approach, presenting alternative policies rather than just opposing government initiatives.

Evolution of Political Culture

By 2025, Canadian political culture has transformed in several significant ways:

Coalition Governance: Coalition and confidence-and-supply agreements become normalized. The initial Liberal-NDP coalition completes its full term, demonstrating that such arrangements can provide stable governance. Media coverage evolves from treating coalitions as "unstable" to analyzing them as normal democratic outcomes.
Policy Development: Policy development becomes more incremental and consensus-based. Major initiatives require support beyond the governing parties, leading to more consultation and compromise. This produces fewer dramatic policy shifts but greater policy stability across electoral cycles.
Political Discourse: Political discourse gradually becomes less adversarial. While partisan differences remain strong, the need to work across party lines moderates the most extreme rhetoric. Party leaders who can build bridges gain influence, while those who only appeal to their base find themselves marginalized.
Voter Engagement: Voter turnout increases from 67% in 2015 to 74% in the 2023 election, as voters recognize that their preferences have a greater chance of being represented. Particularly notable is increased participation among younger voters and in urban areas where votes were previously "wasted" in safe seats.
Party System Evolution: The party system continues to evolve, with the Green Party establishing itself as a significant parliamentary force focused on environmental and democratic reform issues. The People's Party maintains a presence representing populist right-wing views. By 2025, two additional parties gain parliamentary representation: the Indigenous Peoples' Alliance and a Quebec-based progressive party that splits from the Bloc.

Policy Outcomes

The new electoral system influences policy development in several key areas:

Climate Policy: Climate policy becomes more ambitious and stable. The Liberal-NDP coalition implements carbon pricing with steadily increasing rates and significant investments in renewable energy. The policy survives beyond the coalition due to support from Greens and moderate Conservatives, creating policy certainty that encourages business investment in low-carbon solutions.
Healthcare Expansion: A national pharmacare program is implemented in 2021 as a condition of the Liberal-NDP coalition agreement. While more limited than the NDP's original proposal, it establishes universal coverage for essential medications. The program's popularity makes it politically difficult for subsequent governments to dismantle.
Indigenous Relations: Indigenous issues gain greater prominence, with the Indigenous Peoples' Alliance entering Parliament in 2023 and securing key committee positions. This leads to accelerated implementation of Truth and Reconciliation Commission recommendations and more meaningful consultation on resource development projects.
Regional Development: Regional development policies become more nuanced and less politically driven. With parties needing to maintain support across regions rather than focusing on "battleground" ridings, investments are distributed based on more objective criteria rather than electoral calculations.
Democratic Reforms: The success of electoral reform creates momentum for additional democratic innovations. By 2025, Parliament implements reforms to question period, strengthens the independence of parliamentary committees, and establishes a more transparent process for appointments to federal agencies and courts.

Economic and Fiscal Impacts

The economic impacts of the new system are mixed but generally positive:

Fiscal Policy: Fiscal policy becomes more moderate and predictable. The need for cross-party support prevents both dramatic tax cuts and major spending increases without broad consensus. This fiscal moderation is viewed positively by credit rating agencies and contributes to stable economic growth.
Business Environment: After initial concerns about instability, the business community generally adapts positively to the new system. The greater policy predictability allows for longer-term investment planning, particularly in areas like energy and infrastructure where policy uncertainty previously hampered development.
Regional Economic Development: Economic development becomes more balanced regionally. With parties needing to maintain support across the country rather than focusing on specific battleground regions, economic policies address the needs of previously neglected areas, including rural communities and smaller urban centers.
Innovation Policy: Innovation policy benefits from greater continuity. Programs supporting research and development, particularly in clean technology and digital sectors, maintain consistent funding across electoral cycles, allowing for longer-term projects and partnerships.
Trade Relations: Trade policy becomes more stable and less subject to political shifts. The broader consensus required for major trade agreements ensures they have sufficient support to survive changes in government, providing certainty for businesses engaged in international commerce.

International Perception and Influence

Canada's international position evolves in response to its democratic innovation:

Democratic Leadership: Canada's successful implementation of electoral reform enhances its reputation as a democratic innovator. Canadian experts are sought out to advise other countries considering similar reforms, particularly in the Commonwealth.
Foreign Policy Consistency: Canadian foreign policy gains consistency across electoral cycles. The need for broader consensus prevents dramatic shifts in international relationships and commitments, making Canada a more reliable partner in international institutions.
Diplomatic Approach: Canada's diplomatic approach increasingly emphasizes multilateralism and coalition-building, reflecting the domestic experience of negotiation and compromise. This approach proves effective in international climate negotiations and trade discussions.
Soft Power: Canada's soft power increases as its democratic model attracts positive attention. The successful transition to proportional representation without significant disruption becomes a case study in peaceful democratic evolution, enhancing Canada's influence in democracy promotion efforts.
Relations with Similar Systems: Canada develops stronger relationships with other countries using proportional representation, particularly in Europe. These relationships facilitate knowledge exchange on governance approaches and policy solutions that work in multiparty systems.

Unforeseen Consequences

The reform produces several unexpected outcomes:

Party Discipline Evolution: Party discipline, traditionally very strong in Canadian politics, gradually relaxes. With multiple parties needed for majorities, and list MPs having different incentives than constituency MPs, more independent voting emerges on non-confidence matters.
Media Transformation: Political media transforms to cover the more complex political landscape. Horse-race coverage declines in favor of more substantive policy analysis and coalition speculation. Political journalism becomes more focused on explaining complex governance arrangements to the public.
Political Career Paths: Political career paths diversify. The system creates space for policy specialists who might not excel at constituency service but bring valuable expertise through party lists. This broadens the talent pool in Parliament and brings more diverse professional backgrounds into politics.
Civic Education: Civic education in schools evolves significantly to explain the more complex system. This has the secondary effect of increasing overall political literacy and engagement among young Canadians, who develop a more sophisticated understanding of democratic processes.
Constitutional Evolution: While not a formal constitutional amendment, the electoral reform initiates a period of constitutional reflection. By 2025, serious discussions begin about Senate reform and clarifying federal-provincial relations, building on the democratic renewal started by electoral reform.

By 2025, the proportional representation system has become an established feature of Canadian democracy. While debates continue about specific aspects of the system and potential refinements, there is no serious movement to return to first-past-the-post. The 2019 reform is increasingly viewed as a significant milestone in Canada's democratic development, comparable to the Charter of Rights and Freedoms in its transformative impact on Canadian governance and political culture.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Henry Milner, Professor of Political Science at the University of Montreal, observes:

"The implementation of proportional representation in Canada represents a fascinating case of institutional adaptation within a Westminster system. What's particularly notable is how Canadian political culture both changed and maintained continuity through this transition. The Westminster traditions of responsible government and parliamentary supremacy remained intact, but operated through new mechanisms of coalition and cross-party cooperation. This hybrid model—combining elements of British parliamentary tradition with continental European coalition practices—created a distinctly Canadian approach to proportional governance. The feared instability and fragmentation did not materialize to the degree critics predicted, largely because Canada's political culture remained pragmatic and compromise-oriented. Perhaps most significantly, the reform demonstrated that established democracies can undertake major institutional reforms without crisis or revolution—an important lesson in an era when many democracies face pressure to evolve their institutions to address contemporary challenges. The Canadian experience suggests that electoral system change, while significant, is more evolutionary than revolutionary when implemented thoughtfully within a stable democratic context."

Dr. Elizabeth May, former Green Party leader and Professor of Environmental Policy at the University of Victoria, notes:

"The shift to proportional representation fundamentally altered the trajectory of Canadian climate policy. In the previous system, climate action was vulnerable to electoral swings that could bring governments opposed to carbon pricing or emissions regulations to power with a minority of votes. Under the proportional system, the consistent 60-65% support for climate action among Canadian voters translated into parliamentary majorities for climate-friendly policies, regardless of which parties formed government. This created the policy stability necessary for long-term business planning and investment in low-carbon solutions. The inclusion of Green MPs in meaningful numbers also brought specific policy expertise into parliamentary debates and committee work, improving the technical quality of environmental legislation. Perhaps most importantly, the need to build broader consensus led to climate policies with stronger regional considerations and just transition provisions, addressing the legitimate concerns of resource-dependent communities while maintaining environmental ambition. This demonstrates how electoral systems don't just affect who governs, but fundamentally shape what policies can be successfully implemented and sustained."

Professor Peter Russell, constitutional scholar and Professor Emeritus at the University of Toronto, comments:

"The electoral reform of 2017 may ultimately be seen as the beginning of a broader constitutional evolution in Canada. While the change did not require formal constitutional amendment, it has initiated a reconsideration of other aspects of our governance system. The successful adaptation to coalition politics has made Senate reform more feasible, as proportional representation in the Commons addressed some of the regional representation concerns that previously drove Senate reform discussions. Similarly, the more collaborative political culture has created space for more productive federal-provincial relations, with less partisan positioning and more focus on practical problem-solving. Indigenous constitutional recognition has advanced further than in our original timeline, partly because Indigenous perspectives gained greater voice in the more diverse Parliament. What's particularly interesting is how this evolution occurred without the trauma of constitutional negotiations that characterized the Meech Lake and Charlottetown eras. By starting with electoral reform rather than attempting comprehensive constitutional change, Canada found a pathway to evolutionary constitutional development that avoided the all-or-nothing dynamics of formal amendment processes. This may offer a model for how established democracies can adapt their fundamental institutions to contemporary needs without constitutional crisis."