What If Canada Joined The United States?

The Actual History

The separate national identities of the United States and Canada emerged from a complex series of historical developments in the aftermath of European colonization of North America. While the thirteen American colonies revolted against British rule in 1776, the northern British colonies that would eventually become Canada remained loyal to the British Crown.

During the American Revolution (1775-1783), approximately 40,000-50,000 Loyalists fled the newly formed United States for British North America, particularly to Nova Scotia and Quebec. This influx of people who explicitly rejected American independence reinforced a distinct political identity in these regions. The War of 1812 further solidified this separation when American forces attempted to invade British North America, only to be repelled by British forces and local militia.

Throughout the early 19th century, the British colonies in North America remained separate entities: Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and the Province of Canada (formed in 1841 by merging Upper and Lower Canada). By the 1860s, several factors pushed these colonies toward confederation:

American expansionism: The end of the American Civil War in 1865 freed up military resources, and many Canadians feared the United States might act on its "Manifest Destiny" ideology to expand northward. The Fenian Raids of 1866-1871, when Irish-American groups attacked Canadian territory, heightened these concerns.
British withdrawal: Great Britain was increasingly reluctant to bear the cost of defending its North American colonies and encouraged them to unite for mutual defense.
Economic considerations: A railway linking the Maritime provinces with Canada West (Ontario) and Canada East (Quebec) was seen as economically vital, and confederation would facilitate this project.
Political deadlock: The Province of Canada was experiencing political paralysis due to the equal representation given to Canada East and Canada West despite population differences.

These pressures culminated in the Charlottetown Conference (1864) and the Quebec Conference (1864), where delegates from the colonies drafted a framework for confederation. The British North America Act was passed by the British Parliament and received royal assent on March 29, 1867, creating the Dominion of Canada on July 1, 1867, initially comprising Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick.

Canada gradually expanded westward, absorbing Manitoba (1870), British Columbia (1871), and Prince Edward Island (1873). The remaining western territories became Alberta and Saskatchewan in 1905. Newfoundland was the last province to join, in 1949.

Throughout its history, there were moments when annexation to the United States gained some support in Canada, particularly during economic downturns. The Annexation Manifesto of 1849 saw some Montreal businessmen advocate for joining the United States during a period of economic depression. However, these movements never gained mainstream traction.

Instead, Canada developed its own national identity, legal system, and political institutions. While maintaining close economic and cultural ties with the United States, Canada established different approaches to healthcare, multiculturalism, foreign policy, and gun control. Today, despite sharing the world's longest undefended border and being each other's largest trading partners, Canada and the United States remain distinct sovereign nations with significant cultural and political differences.

The Point of Divergence

What if the British North American colonies had joined the United States instead of forming their own confederation? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where the political calculations of the 1860s led to a dramatic northward expansion of the United States rather than the birth of an independent Canada.

Several plausible points of divergence emerge in the crucial period between 1864 and 1867:

Scenario 1: The Civil War's Northern Impact The American Civil War could have played out differently, with the Union making explicit overtures to British North America during the conflict. Abraham Lincoln, recognizing the strategic advantage of securing the northern border, might have initiated serious diplomatic efforts to bring the British colonies into the Union as a way to strengthen the North against the Confederacy. This could have resonated with some colonies that were already experiencing economic challenges.

Scenario 2: A Failed Charlottetown Conference The 1864 Charlottetown Conference was critical to Canadian Confederation. If the delegates from the various colonies had failed to reach agreement—perhaps due to more intense regional rivalries or disagreements over the proposed division of powers—the confederation movement might have faltered. With British support for their colonies waning and confederation stalled, American annexation could have emerged as a practical alternative.

Scenario 3: Economic Imperatives The Reciprocity Treaty of 1854-1866 had created beneficial trade relations between the United States and British North America. In our timeline, when the U.S. abrogated this treaty, it pushed the colonies toward confederation for economic survival. In an alternate scenario, the United States might have instead offered even more favorable trade terms—but conditional on political union—at a time when the colonies were economically vulnerable.

Scenario 4: The British Calculation Britain was reassessing its imperial commitments during this period. In our timeline, they supported confederation as a way to reduce their defense burden while maintaining influence. In an alternate scenario, British leadership might have calculated that their interests in maintaining global trade and good relations with the rapidly industrializing United States outweighed the benefits of maintaining separate colonies in North America.

For our alternate timeline, we'll focus on a combination of these factors, with the primary point of divergence occurring in 1865-1866. Following the end of the American Civil War, President Andrew Johnson and Secretary of State William Seward pursue an aggressive diplomatic strategy to bring the British North American colonies into the Union through peaceful annexation rather than merely purchasing Alaska from Russia (which occurred in 1867 in our timeline). Britain, facing economic pressures and calculating that resistance would be costly, negotiates a gradual transfer of sovereignty, while colonial leaders, divided on confederation, find themselves unable to present a united alternative to American statehood.

Immediate Aftermath

The Annexation Process (1866-1870)

Following the diplomatic breakthrough of 1866, the incorporation of British North America into the United States unfolded through a complex series of negotiations and legislative acts:

The North America Treaty of 1866: After intensive secret negotiations, the United States and Great Britain signed a comprehensive treaty in November 1866. Unlike the outright purchase of Alaska, this agreement established a phased transition for the British North American colonies. Britain would receive significant trade concessions, including preferential access to American markets, while the United States would assume British debt related to North American infrastructure and defense.

Colonial Reactions: The announcement of the treaty triggered varied responses across British North America:

In Canada West (Ontario), business interests largely supported annexation, seeing enormous economic opportunities in American markets.
Canada East (Quebec) experienced the strongest resistance, with concerns about cultural and linguistic preservation.
The Maritime provinces were divided, with Halifax elites opposing the plan while many rural and fishing communities, suffering from economic hardship, cautiously supported it.
In the western territories, where settlement was sparse, reaction was minimal, though the Hudson's Bay Company expressed grave concerns about its charter rights.

Congressional Debates: The U.S. Congress held heated debates through early 1867 about the terms of annexation. Northern Republicans supported expansion, seeing an opportunity to secure their political dominance by adding new free states. Some Democrats opposed the plan, arguing it would dilute American identity. The treaty was ratified in March 1867 after amendments guaranteeing that the new territories would enter as free states and providing cultural protections for French Canadians.

The New State Structure: Rather than bringing the entire territory in as a single entity, Congress established a pathway for multiple new states:

Ontario became the state of Ontario in 1868
The Maritime provinces consolidated as the state of Acadia in 1869
Quebec became a state in 1870 with special provisions for language rights
Manitoba and the Northwest Territories remained territories with statehood pathways defined for future population growth
British Columbia, initially hesitant, joined as a territory in 1870 after negotiations for a transcontinental railroad

Political Reconfiguration (1867-1875)

The absorption of the former British colonies dramatically altered American political dynamics:

Electoral Impact: The 1868 presidential election was the first to include voters from Ontario, expanding the electorate significantly. Republican Ulysses S. Grant's victory was bolstered by strong support from the new state, which appreciated the Republican Party's pro-industrial policies and Civil War legacy.

The Quebec Question: Quebec's integration proved most challenging, with linguistic and religious differences creating immediate tensions. The Quebec Statehood Act of 1870 included unprecedented provisions:

Official bilingualism within the state
Protection for Catholic schools and institutions
Preservation of Quebec's civil law system for private matters
Proportional representation in state offices

These measures, while averting immediate conflict, established precedents that would later challenge American constitutional uniformity.

The "Canadian" Political Bloc: Politicians from the former British colonies quickly formed informal alliances in Congress, creating a distinctive voting bloc on certain issues. They often advocated for:

Stronger trade relationships with Britain
More progressive labor regulations
Enhanced federal investment in infrastructure
Policies that accommodated regional diversity

Economic Integration (1867-1880)

The economic effects of annexation were substantial and immediate:

Currency Unification: The transition from the Canadian pound to the U.S. dollar created short-term disruption but ultimately facilitated trade. The U.S. federal government established exchange programs and provided temporary subsidies to ease the transition.

Railroad Expansion: The promised transcontinental railroad received accelerated federal funding, with construction advancing rapidly from both the east and west. Rather than the Canadian Pacific route of our timeline, the Northern Union Pacific Railroad was completed in 1875, connecting Chicago to Vancouver through the new northern states.

Natural Resource Development: American capital flowed northward into mining, forestry, and agriculture. The Great Lakes industrial region expanded across Ontario, while Quebec saw rapid development of textile manufacturing. The pace of resource extraction accelerated dramatically compared to our timeline.

Banking Transformation: Canadian banks, which had developed differently from American institutions, were forced to reorganize under U.S. banking laws. This created significant disruption, though some larger Canadian banks successfully reestablished themselves as regional American institutions.

International Reactions (1866-1875)

The dramatic expansion of the United States elicited strong responses from other world powers:

British Empire Adjustment: Britain, having negotiated the transfer, publicly presented it as a strategic realignment rather than an imperial retreat. Privately, however, the loss of Canada accelerated reforms in imperial governance, with greater autonomy granted to Australia and New Zealand to prevent similar outcomes.

European Concerns: France, Germany, and other European powers viewed the expansion with alarm, interpreting it as a significant shift in global power dynamics. Diplomatic correspondence from the period reveals increased concern about American hemispheric dominance.

Russian Strategy: Russia accelerated its sale of Alaska to the United States, completed in 1867, recognizing that an American-controlled continent was inevitable. However, Russia negotiated more favorable terms than in our timeline, leveraging American eagerness for the territory that would connect their new northern territories.

Mexican Relations: The expanded United States took a more assertive stance toward Mexico, resulting in additional territorial concessions in the northern Mexican states and greater American economic penetration during the 1870s.

By 1875, the initial integration phase was largely complete, though cultural and institutional adaptation would continue for decades. The United States had transformed from a nation recovering from civil war to a continental colossus spanning from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic Circle.

Long-term Impact

Political Evolution (1875-1950)

The absorption of former British North America fundamentally altered American political development:

Constitutional Adaptations

The integration of Quebec with its distinct legal, linguistic, and cultural traditions necessitated unprecedented constitutional flexibility. The "Quebec Compromise" established principles that gradually expanded beyond state boundaries:

The Supreme Court recognized limited "cultural federalism" in a series of landmark cases from 1880-1900
The concept of "heritage languages" gained constitutional protection in 1912
Regional legal variations received greater tolerance than in our timeline

These precedents created a more decentralized federal structure that paradoxically strengthened the union by accommodating greater diversity.

Party System Transformation

The expanded electorate and new regional interests reshaped American political parties:

The "Northern Progressive" faction emerged within the Republican Party by the 1880s, championing labor protections, natural resource conservation, and greater economic regulation
The Democratic Party developed a stronger urban, industrial wing earlier than in our timeline, partly in response to Catholic voters in Quebec and industrial workers in Ontario
A tradition of viable regional third parties took root, especially in Quebec and the former Maritime provinces

By 1900, American politics featured stronger progressive elements and weaker nativist movements than in our timeline, though racial politics regarding African Americans remained largely unchanged.

Foreign Policy Reorientation

With secure northern borders and vastly expanded territory, American foreign policy evolved differently:

Anglo-American relations solidified into a stronger alliance decades earlier than in our timeline
American imperialism focused more intensely on the Caribbean and Pacific, with the Spanish-American War occurring earlier (1892) and resulting in more extensive territorial acquisitions
A "North Atlantic orientation" competed with the "Pacific ambition," creating more complex foreign policy debates

Economic Development (1875-2000)

Continental Integration

The unified North American market accelerated industrialization across the northern regions:

The Great Lakes industrial zone expanded to include Toronto and Hamilton, creating the world's largest manufacturing corridor by 1900
Quebec's textile and paper industries integrated with New England's manufacturing economy, speeding urbanization
Western resource extraction developed earlier and more intensively, with grain, minerals, and timber flowing through an expanded rail network

This continental economic integration accelerated American economic growth during the crucial 1875-1925 period, allowing the United States to surpass the British Empire as the world's leading economic power by 1910 rather than the 1920s.

Resource Management

The vast northern forests, watersheds, and mineral deposits added to American territory changed approaches to resource management:

Theodore Roosevelt's conservation movement emerged earlier and with broader support, influenced by concerns about rapid northern deforestation
Federal water management became a higher priority, leading to earlier development of hydroelectric power
The oil discoveries in Alberta (1910s) reduced American dependence on foreign oil during critical decades

The Great Depression and Response

When the Great Depression struck in 1929, the expanded United States responded differently:

The more decentralized federal system allowed for greater regional experimentation in economic recovery
Social welfare innovations that emerged in Ontario and Quebec states influenced New Deal programs
The agricultural crisis affected a larger portion of the country, leading to more comprehensive farm policies

Cultural Evolution (1875-Present)

Language and Identity

The integration of French-speaking Quebec profoundly influenced American cultural development:

American identity gradually accommodated bilingualism in ways unimaginable in our timeline
Cultural protections initially granted to Quebec expanded to other cultural and linguistic minorities
The concept of "hyphenated Americanism" gained earlier acceptance, with "Franco-American" identity establishing a template for other groups

By the mid-20th century, American cultural identity included elements of multiculturalism that didn't emerge until much later in our timeline.

Indigenous Relations

The different traditions of U.S. and British/Canadian relations with indigenous peoples created complex outcomes:

Initially, northern indigenous groups faced harsher policies as American frontier practices extended northward
By the early 20th century, however, the more formalized treaty relationships of the British tradition influenced reforms in American Indian policy
Indigenous political movements developed earlier and with greater cross-border coordination

The Arts and Entertainment

The expanded territory enriched American cultural production:

French-language literature became part of the American canon, creating bilingual literary traditions
Northern landscapes inspired distinctive schools of painting and photography
Montreal emerged as a major center of American jazz and later rock music, rivaling New Orleans and New York

Geopolitical Consequences (1900-2025)

World Wars and Global Position

The expanded United States entered the World Wars with different calculations:

In World War I, American entry came several months earlier than in our timeline, influenced by stronger Anglo-American relations and the sinking of passenger ships with citizens from the northern states
In World War II, the absence of a separate Canada meant all North American resources were immediately committed to the Allied cause after Pearl Harbor
The Manhattan Project developed differently, with uranium mining centered in the northern territories and some research facilities located in Montreal and Toronto

Cold War Dynamics

During the Cold War, the geopolitical map shifted significantly:

The United States maintained a stronger Arctic presence, developing early warning systems and military infrastructure across the northern territories
Soviet calculations about nuclear strategy had to account for America's deeper strategic depth
NATO formed with slightly different membership and command structures

Post-Cold War Era (1990-2025)

In recent decades, the expanded United States has faced distinct challenges:

Cultural tensions between Quebec and Anglo regions have periodically flared, though constitutional accommodations have prevented serious separatist movements
The Arctic has become a more central focus of American security and economic policy as climate change has accelerated
Relations with the United Kingdom have remained stronger than in our timeline, with the "special relationship" built on deeper historical and institutional connections

By 2025, this alternate United States spans from the Caribbean to the Arctic Circle, with 60 states instead of 50, a population approaching 400 million, and a more complex cultural identity that blends American constitutional traditions with elements of British parliamentary practice and French cultural heritage. While facing challenges of regional autonomy and cultural preservation, it stands as an even more dominant continental power with a somewhat more nuanced approach to global affairs than in our timeline.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Margaret Wilson, Professor of North American History at Harvard University, offers this perspective: "The annexation of British North America fundamentally altered the trajectory of American development in ways we're still understanding. Without the constant comparison and contrast with Canada that shaped both nations in our timeline, American political culture evolved with different reference points and pressures. The necessity of accommodating Quebec's distinct society created constitutional precedents that made the United States more tolerant of regional and cultural differences. However, this came with costs – the more decentralized federal structure has sometimes hampered national responses to crises, and the expanded territory accelerated environmental exploitation in ways that created earlier conservation movements but also more extensive damage."

Professor Jean-Pierre Doucet, Director of the Center for Franco-American Studies at the University of Quebec State, presents a different analysis: "The integration of Quebec into the American union represents one of history's most fascinating cultural accommodations. While Quebec culture has undoubtedly been diluted compared to our timeline's independent Quebec within Canada, it has also exerted remarkable influence on broader American society. The legal protections established in the 1870s created templates for cultural preservation that benefited many groups. French language and cultural traditions survived not as isolated phenomena but as integral components of a more diverse American identity. What we lost in distinctiveness, we gained in influence – though this remains a point of heated debate among Québécois historians today."

Dr. Elizabeth Taylor, Senior Fellow at the Wilson International Center, examines the global implications: "The consolidation of North America under a single sovereignty fundamentally altered the global balance of power during the crucial period of 1875-1925 when the modern international system was taking shape. American economic dominance emerged earlier and more completely without a separate Canada, accelerating the transition from British to American hegemony. The resources of the entire continent, mobilized under one government, provided unmatched strategic depth during both World Wars and the Cold War. However, this also meant that counterbalancing powers emerged differently – European integration accelerated in response, and Soviet strategic planning prioritized different capabilities. The absence of Canada as a distinct diplomatic voice also removed a moderating influence that often provided alternatives to American approaches in international forums."