What If Casablanca Developed Different Industrial Policies?

The Actual History

Casablanca, Morocco's largest city and economic capital, underwent significant industrial transformation in the decades following the country's independence from France in 1956. Under the French Protectorate (1912-1956), Casablanca had already been developed as a major port city, with the French establishing modern port facilities, transportation networks, and the beginnings of an industrial base focused primarily on processing agricultural products and minerals for export to European markets.

After independence, Morocco, like many newly independent nations, faced the challenge of economic development and industrialization under significant constraints. The country adopted a mixed economic model that combined elements of state planning with private enterprise. In the late 1950s and 1960s, Morocco implemented various five-year plans that emphasized import substitution industrialization (ISI), a common development strategy at the time. This approach aimed to reduce dependence on imported manufactured goods by developing domestic industries behind protective tariff barriers.

Casablanca became the focal point of these industrialization efforts. The city's industrial zones expanded with factories producing textiles, processed food, building materials, and light consumer goods primarily for the domestic market. The state invested in infrastructure including the expansion of the port, which remained the country's primary gateway for international trade. Large state-owned enterprises were established in strategic sectors including phosphate processing (Morocco holds approximately 75% of the world's phosphate reserves), sugar refineries, and cement production.

The 1970s oil shocks and global economic turbulence revealed weaknesses in Morocco's development model. Rising debt and persistent trade deficits led to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) structural adjustment program in the early 1980s. This marked a significant policy shift toward liberalization, privatization, and export orientation. Casablanca's industrial focus gradually shifted from import substitution to export promotion, particularly in labor-intensive industries like textiles, garments, and leather goods that could capitalize on Morocco's relatively low labor costs.

During the 1990s and 2000s, Morocco deepened its integration into the global economy, signing free trade agreements with the European Union (Association Agreement, 1996), the United States (2004), and various Arab and African countries. Casablanca adapted by diversifying into higher value-added manufacturing and services. The Casablanca Finance City initiative, launched in 2010, aimed to establish the city as a regional financial hub for Africa.

Despite these developments, Casablanca's industrial base has faced significant challenges. Competition from lower-cost Asian manufacturers has eroded Morocco's traditional advantages in labor-intensive industries. While sectors like automotive (with major investments from Renault-Nissan and more recently, Chinese manufacturers) and aerospace (focused around Bombardier and Airbus supplier ecosystems) have grown, they remain relatively concentrated and dependent on foreign investment and technology.

By 2025, Casablanca's economy reflects the mixed results of Morocco's development strategies. The city accounts for approximately 30% of Morocco's GDP and hosts the majority of its industrial production. However, industrial employment has stagnated, with services growing more rapidly. Manufacturing constitutes about 16% of Morocco's GDP, below the 20-30% typical of successful industrializing economies. Income inequality remains pronounced, with luxury developments and informal settlements coexisting within the urban landscape. While Casablanca's port remains one of Africa's largest, its industrial zones display a mix of dynamic new sectors alongside declining traditional industries.

The Point of Divergence

What if Casablanca had pursued fundamentally different industrial policies in the critical post-independence period? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where Morocco's economic planners made different strategic choices in the late 1950s and early 1960s that set Casablanca on an alternative development trajectory.

The point of divergence centers on the critical period between 1958 and 1962, when Morocco's first comprehensive economic development plans were being formulated. In our timeline, Morocco followed a relatively conventional import substitution industrialization model similar to many developing countries of that era. However, several alternative approaches were debated among Moroccan economists and policymakers at the time.

One possibility is that Morocco might have pursued a more aggressive export-oriented industrialization strategy from the beginning, similar to what South Korea and Taiwan would later implement with great success. This would have required different institutional arrangements, infrastructure priorities, and foreign economic relationships.

Alternatively, Morocco might have chosen a more state-directed industrial policy focused on developing specific strategic industries where the country had potential comparative advantages, particularly in phosphate-based industries, advanced agricultural processing, and maritime industries leveraging Casablanca's port location.

A third possibility is that Casablanca might have developed as a special economic zone with distinct policies from the rest of Morocco, similar to Hong Kong's relationship with China or Singapore's independent development path. Given Casablanca's established commercial elite and international connections, such an approach might have gathered political support.

In this alternate timeline, we'll explore a scenario where Casablanca adopted a hybrid approach combining elements of export orientation with strategic industrial planning. The divergence occurred when King Mohammed V, impressed by early reports of industrialization efforts in East Asia, appointed a different economic team led by economists with training in Japan and the United States rather than the predominantly French-educated advisors who shaped actual policies. This new team implemented a distinctive "Casablanca Development Strategy" that prioritized export competitiveness, strategic industrial development around Morocco's natural resources, and institutional innovation that gave Casablanca special economic status within Morocco.

Immediate Aftermath

The "Casablanca Strategy" Takes Shape (1958-1965)

In the immediate years following independence, the alternative economic team developed what became known as the "Casablanca Strategy," which diverged significantly from Morocco's actual post-independence economic policies. While maintaining state involvement in the economy, this approach was more pragmatic and externally oriented from the beginning.

The strategy had several distinctive features:

Export Processing Zones: Rather than focusing primarily on import substitution behind tariff barriers, Casablanca established Morocco's first Export Processing Zone (EPZ) in 1960, offering tax incentives, simplified customs procedures, and infrastructure support for export-oriented manufacturers. This zone, located adjacent to the port, initially attracted European textile and electronics assembly operations seeking lower production costs.
Strategic Industry Development: Instead of broadly protecting a wide range of industries, the government identified a smaller set of strategic sectors for concentrated development. These included phosphate-based chemicals and fertilizers (leveraging Morocco's vast phosphate reserves), food processing that added value to Morocco's agricultural products, and maritime industries including shipbuilding and repair facilities to service vessels using the Strait of Gibraltar.
Institutional Innovation: Casablanca received semi-autonomous economic governance under a "Casablanca Economic Development Authority" that had greater flexibility in infrastructure investment, business regulation, and workforce development than other Moroccan regions. This allowed for more rapid decision-making and adaptation to international economic opportunities.
Educational Priorities: The University of Casablanca (founded in 1962 in this timeline, several years earlier than in actual history) emphasized technical education, engineering, and business administration rather than the humanities and law focus typical of Francophone universities of the era. Technical training institutes were established with assistance from Japanese and German partners rather than relying exclusively on French educational models.

Early Economic Outcomes (1965-1975)

The initial results of this divergent approach were mixed but promising, creating distinctive economic patterns:

Export Growth: By 1965, Casablanca's exports had grown at nearly double the rate of our timeline, primarily in textile products, processed foods, and simple electronics assembly. European firms established operations to take advantage of proximity to European markets combined with lower labor costs. By 1970, exports constituted approximately 25% of Casablanca's economic output compared to around 15% in our timeline.
Phosphate Industry Transformation: Rather than simply mining and exporting raw phosphates, Morocco developed more advanced processing capabilities. By 1968, Casablanca had become home to sophisticated phosphoric acid and fertilizer production facilities, adding significant value to Morocco's primary resource export. Joint ventures with American and Japanese chemical companies accelerated technology transfer in this sector.
Port Development: The Port of Casablanca expanded more rapidly and with greater specialization than in our timeline. By 1972, it featured dedicated facilities for container handling (one of the first in Africa to adopt containerization), bulk fertilizer exports, and ship repair. This infrastructure supported both export industries and positioned Casablanca as a regional maritime services hub.
Urban Development Patterns: The more export-oriented and specialized industrial development created different urban growth patterns. Industrial zones were more planned and concentrated, with better transportation linkages. Worker housing developments were constructed closer to industrial areas, reducing commuting times and urban sprawl compared to our timeline.

Regional and International Relations (1965-1975)

The alternative Casablanca development model also affected Morocco's international economic and political relationships:

Diversified International Partnerships: While maintaining strong ties with France, Morocco developed more balanced economic relationships with the United States, West Germany, and Japan, which became significant sources of investment and technology transfer. By 1970, French investment constituted less than 40% of foreign capital in Casablanca, compared to over 60% in our timeline.
Regional Leadership: Casablanca's distinctive development path gave Morocco greater economic prestige within North Africa. The city hosted a series of Pan-African economic conferences between 1965-1970 that promoted economic cooperation and alternative development models. These "Casablanca Conferences" became influential in shaping development thinking across newly independent African states.
Labor Market Effects: The focus on export industries and strategic sectors created greater demand for semi-skilled manufacturing workers. This altered migration patterns within Morocco, with Casablanca attracting workers from rural areas at a faster rate than in our actual timeline. By 1975, Casablanca's population reached approximately 2.2 million, about 15% larger than in our timeline.

Political Economy Challenges

The alternative development path was not without tensions and challenges:

Elite Competition: The new economic model created conflicts between the traditional commercial elite (often with French connections) and a new entrepreneurial class associated with export industries and strategic sectors. This tension played out in political debates over economic policy throughout the 1960s.
Labor Organization: The concentration of manufacturing workers in export zones and strategic industries facilitated labor organization. Casablanca experienced more significant strike actions in 1968-1969 than in our timeline, leading to wage increases and improved working conditions that partially eroded initial cost advantages.
Regional Disparities: Casablanca's exceptional status and rapid development exacerbated disparities with other Moroccan regions. By 1975, economic output per capita in Casablanca was approximately three times the national average, compared to about twice the average in our timeline. This created political pressure for more balanced regional development.

Long-term Impact

Industrial Evolution (1975-1990)

The alternative development trajectory created distinctive industrial patterns that evolved over subsequent decades:

Industrial Upgrading

Casablanca's early focus on export orientation positioned it to advance up the industrial value chain more rapidly than in our timeline:

Electronics Manufacturing: Building on early assembly operations, Casablanca developed more sophisticated electronics manufacturing capabilities by the late 1970s. In partnership with European and Japanese firms, factories producing telecommunications equipment, industrial electronics, and early computing devices were established. By 1985, electronics constituted approximately 15% of Casablanca's manufacturing output, compared to less than 5% in our actual timeline.
Phosphate-based Industries: The strategic focus on adding value to Morocco's phosphate resources created a sophisticated chemical industry cluster. By the early 1980s, Casablanca had developed production capabilities for specialty fertilizers, phosphate derivatives for food additives, and industrial chemicals. These higher-value products were less vulnerable to commodity price swings than raw phosphate exports, providing greater economic stability.
Maritime Services Expansion: The early investment in port infrastructure and shipbuilding/repair facilities positioned Casablanca to capitalize on growing maritime trade. By 1982, Casablanca had developed the largest ship repair and maintenance facilities in Africa, servicing vessels traversing the Mediterranean-Atlantic shipping routes.

Responding to Global Economic Shifts

The 1970s brought significant global economic challenges with the oil shocks and resulting economic turbulence. Casablanca's alternative development model shaped its response to these challenges:

Energy Policy Innovation: The oil crisis of 1973-74 hit Morocco hard as an energy importer. In this alternate timeline, Casablanca pioneered energy efficiency standards and industrial cogeneration systems that reduced energy intensity in manufacturing. By 1985, Casablanca's industries used approximately 25% less energy per unit of output than comparable North African industrial centers.
Debt Management: While Morocco still accumulated significant external debt during this period, the stronger export orientation of the economy provided greater foreign exchange earnings to service this debt. When the debt crisis struck developing countries in the early 1980s, Morocco required less extensive structural adjustment than in our timeline, preserving more of its industrial policy autonomy.
South-South Cooperation: Casablanca's commercial relationships diversified beyond Europe earlier than in our timeline. By the mid-1980s, significant trade and investment links had been established with Gulf states, Nigeria, and emerging East Asian economies. This diversification reduced dependence on European markets and created greater resilience to regional economic downturns.

Technological and Economic Transformation (1990-2010)

The alternative development path positioned Casablanca differently for the technological changes and globalization of the 1990s and 2000s:

Digital Economy Development

IT Services Growth: Building on the electronics manufacturing base and technical education emphasis, Casablanca developed significant information technology services capabilities starting in the early 1990s. The city established North Africa's first technology park in 1994, which became a center for software development, IT outsourcing, and later, business process outsourcing services.
Digital Infrastructure: Casablanca invested earlier and more extensively in digital infrastructure than in our timeline. By 2000, the city had developed the most extensive fiber optic network in Africa and established multiple international data connections, becoming a regional digital hub. This infrastructure supported both IT services industries and the digitalization of traditional manufacturing and logistics operations.
E-commerce Pioneer: Leveraging its digital infrastructure and manufacturing base, Casablanca became an early center for e-commerce in Africa. By 2005, Casablanca-based online marketplaces connected Moroccan manufacturers directly to global consumers, reducing dependence on traditional distribution channels.

Manufacturing Evolution

Automotive and Aerospace Development: The stronger industrial base and skilled workforce allowed Casablanca to move into advanced manufacturing sectors earlier and more extensively than in our timeline. Rather than simply providing low-cost assembly for European manufacturers, Casablanca developed more sophisticated component manufacturing capabilities. By 2005, a cluster of automotive and aerospace suppliers had developed, producing precision-engineered parts for global markets.
Fashion and Design Industries: Building on the early textile industry, Casablanca developed higher-value fashion design and production capabilities. By the early 2000s, "Casablanca Fashion" became recognized as a distinctive style combining European, African, and Middle Eastern influences, creating a niche in global fashion markets that sustained higher wages than basic garment production.
Circular Economy Innovation: Facing resource constraints, Casablanca pioneered industrial ecology practices in North Africa, with waste from one industry becoming inputs for another. By 2010, the Casablanca Industrial Symbiosis Network connected over 200 companies in waste exchange and resource recovery systems, reducing environmental impact while creating economic efficiencies.

Social and Urban Transformation

The alternative industrial development path profoundly shaped Casablanca's social structure and urban form:

Education and Workforce Development

Technical Education Excellence: Casablanca developed the most advanced technical education system in Africa, with specialized institutes co-developed with industry partners. By 2000, approximately 35% of Casablanca's youth received technical post-secondary education, compared to about 15% in our timeline. This created a larger middle class of skilled technicians and engineers.
Research and Development Capacity: Earlier investment in applied research facilities connected to strategic industries built greater innovation capacity. By 2005, R&D expenditure in Casablanca reached 1.8% of local GDP, compared to less than 0.8% in our timeline, supporting incremental innovation in manufacturing processes and product development.
Entrepreneurial Ecosystem: The combination of technical education, export orientation, and institutional flexibility fostered a stronger entrepreneurial culture. By the early 2000s, Casablanca had developed North Africa's most active startup ecosystem, with specialized incubators supporting technology-based enterprises and innovative manufacturing ventures.

Urban Development Patterns

Planned Industrial Districts: The more strategic approach to industrial development resulted in better-planned industrial zones with improved infrastructure and environmental controls. This reduced the pollution and congestion problems that plagued Casablanca's industrial areas in our timeline.
Transportation Networks: Earlier and more coherent investment in transportation infrastructure created more efficient urban mobility. By 1995, Casablanca had developed an extensive light rail system connecting industrial zones with residential areas, reducing commuting times and pollution from private vehicles.
Housing Development: The greater prosperity and larger middle class created different housing patterns. While informal settlements still developed, they constituted a smaller proportion of the urban area than in our timeline. Planned middle-income neighborhoods with better services characterized more of Casablanca's urban expansion.

Contemporary Position (2010-2025)

By 2025 in this alternate timeline, Casablanca has developed into a substantially different city than in our actual world:

Economic Structure

Diversified Industrial Base: Manufacturing constitutes approximately 28% of Casablanca's economy (compared to about 16% in our timeline), but with a much more diverse and higher-value profile. Advanced manufacturing in electronics, specialty chemicals, precision components, and medical devices forms a larger share, while traditional labor-intensive industries have largely relocated to lower-cost regions.
Innovation-Driven Services: Business services, particularly in IT, engineering, design, and logistics, have grown to approximately 35% of the economy. These services are often directly linked to manufacturing, creating an integrated industrial ecosystem.
African Commercial Hub: Casablanca has developed into the preeminent commercial gateway between Europe, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa. The port handles approximately 40% more cargo than in our timeline, while Casablanca financial institutions manage significant investment flows into West and Central African development projects.

Regional and Global Position

Economic Leadership: With a GDP per capita approximately 60% higher than in our timeline, Casablanca has become a regional economic powerhouse. The "Casablanca Model" of strategic industrial policy combined with market orientation has influenced development thinking across Africa and other emerging regions.
Environmental Adaptation: Earlier awareness of environmental constraints led to greater investment in sustainable industrial practices, renewable energy, and water conservation technologies. By 2020, Casablanca had developed globally recognized expertise in industrial sustainability, with its consulting firms advising other developing cities on green industrialization.
Cultural and Commercial Crossroads: The economic success and international connections have reinforced Casablanca's position as a cultural crossroads. The city has become a major center for pan-African media, arts, and cultural industries, blending traditional Moroccan influences with global contemporary trends.

Challenges and Limitations

Despite its greater economic success in this alternate timeline, Casablanca still faces significant challenges:

Inequality Patterns: While overall prosperity is greater, inequality remains a challenge, though with different patterns. The gap between skilled technical workers and professional classes versus those in service jobs has become the primary economic divide, rather than the formal versus informal sector divide that characterizes our timeline.
Regional Disparities: Casablanca's exceptional development has exacerbated disparities with Morocco's interior regions, creating political tensions and migration pressures. Government policies since 2010 have increasingly focused on diffusing industrial development to secondary cities.
Competitive Pressures: The higher wage levels achieved through industrial upgrading have brought new competitive challenges. By 2025, Casablanca faces significant competition from both lower-cost manufacturing locations in Sub-Saharan Africa and more advanced innovation hubs in Europe and Asia.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Amal Benkirane, Professor of Economic Development at the University of Casablanca, offers this perspective: "The alternative industrial development path we've explored would have positioned Casablanca as a model of what development economists now call the 'middle innovation path' - neither solely dependent on low labor costs nor requiring the frontier innovation capabilities of advanced economies. By developing specific sectors where Morocco had natural advantages and systematically building capabilities in those areas, Casablanca could have achieved a more sustainable industrialization than the actual pattern of development, which has been characterized by periodic shifts in focus and vulnerability to external economic pressures. The counterfactual scenario suggests that post-colonial economies had more strategic options than were often recognized at the time."

Professor Richard Chen, Chair of Comparative Industrial Policy at the London School of Economics, provides this analysis: "What's striking about this alternative Casablanca scenario is how timing matters in development strategies. The late 1950s and early 1960s were a critical juncture when newly independent countries were establishing economic pathways that often proved difficult to change later. Had Morocco adopted elements of the East Asian export-oriented model earlier, before it was widely proven, they might have established first-mover advantages in certain industries within their region. However, we should be cautious about assuming too much success - the institutional requirements for effective industrial policy are substantial, and many countries that attempted to emulate East Asian models without the necessary institutional foundations achieved disappointing results. The Casablanca scenario would have required not just different policies but different institutional capabilities than Morocco possessed at independence."

Dr. Fatima Ouazzani, Research Director at the North African Economic Future Institute, considers broader implications: "This alternative development trajectory raises fascinating questions about regional economic geography. A more industrially dynamic Casablanca might have created different patterns of economic integration across North Africa and between North Africa and Europe. We might have seen earlier and more substantive regional production networks, perhaps a more manufacturing-oriented integration with Europe rather than the emphasis on agriculture, energy, and tourism that has characterized actual North African-European economic relations. The ripple effects could have extended to migration patterns, with greater employment opportunities in manufacturing potentially reducing the pressure for outward migration to Europe that became significant from the 1970s onward. Ultimately, this scenario reminds us that the industrial structure of regions is not predetermined by geography alone but shaped by policy choices made at critical historical moments."