What If Catalonia Successfully Seceded From Spain?

The Actual History

The Catalan independence movement reached its most critical moment in October 2017, when the autonomous region of Catalonia held a controversial referendum on independence from Spain, followed by a unilateral declaration of independence that was quickly suppressed by the Spanish government. This crisis represented the culmination of a long-standing independence movement that had gained significant momentum in the early 21st century.

Catalonia, located in northeastern Spain with Barcelona as its capital, has a distinct cultural and linguistic identity dating back centuries. While it had enjoyed varying degrees of autonomy throughout its history, it was fully integrated into Spain following the War of Spanish Succession (1701-1714), when Barcelona fell to Bourbon forces. The defeat, commemorated annually on September 11 (Catalonia's National Day), became a symbol of Catalan national identity and resistance to centralized Spanish rule.

Modern Catalan nationalism emerged in the late 19th century as a cultural renaissance (Renaixença) that evolved into political movements seeking greater autonomy. During the Second Spanish Republic (1931-1939), Catalonia achieved significant self-government, but this was abolished under Francisco Franco's dictatorship (1939-1975), which suppressed Catalan language and culture.

Following Spain's transition to democracy after Franco's death, the 1978 Constitution established a system of autonomous communities, with Catalonia regaining substantial self-government. The Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia, first approved in 1979 and significantly expanded in 2006, granted the region control over areas including education, healthcare, culture, and urban planning, while the Spanish government retained authority over foreign affairs, defense, customs, and most taxation.

The contemporary independence movement gained momentum after 2010, when Spain's Constitutional Court struck down several articles of the 2006 Statute of Autonomy, ruling that references to Catalonia as a "nation" had no legal effect and limiting aspects of the region's self-government and fiscal autonomy. This decision, combined with the economic hardships of the 2008 financial crisis, catalyzed growing support for independence.

Between 2012 and 2016, pro-independence sentiment grew substantially. Mass demonstrations on Catalonia's National Day drew hundreds of thousands of participants. In 2015, pro-independence parties won a majority of seats (though not votes) in the Catalan Parliament and began preparations for a binding referendum on independence, despite the Spanish government's insistence that such a vote would be unconstitutional.

On October 1, 2017, the Catalan government held an independence referendum despite being declared illegal by Spain's Constitutional Court. Spanish police attempted to prevent voting, resulting in violent clashes that injured hundreds of civilians. Despite these disruptions, the Catalan government reported that 90% of the approximately 2.3 million voters (a 43% turnout) supported independence.

On October 27, 2017, the Catalan Parliament unilaterally declared independence. The Spanish government immediately invoked Article 155 of the Constitution, temporarily suspending Catalonia's autonomy and dismissing its government. Several Catalan leaders were arrested and charged with sedition and misuse of public funds, while others, including President Carles Puigdemont, fled abroad to avoid prosecution.

In the subsequent regional elections in December 2017, pro-independence parties again won a parliamentary majority, though with a slight decrease in their overall vote share. The Spanish government under Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy maintained a firm stance against independence, offering no concessions toward greater autonomy or a legal referendum.

The situation evolved further when Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez became Spanish Prime Minister in June 2018 following a no-confidence vote against Rajoy. Sánchez adopted a more conciliatory approach, engaging in dialogue with Catalan authorities and eventually pardoning nine imprisoned independence leaders in 2021. However, he consistently opposed independence or a binding referendum.

The trials of Catalan leaders concluded in October 2019, with nine receiving prison sentences of 9-13 years for sedition and misuse of public funds. These sentences sparked renewed protests in Catalonia. Meanwhile, Puigdemont and other exiled leaders remained abroad, with Spanish attempts to extradite them largely unsuccessful.

By 2023, the independence movement had lost some momentum but remained a significant political force. Pro-independence parties continued to govern Catalonia, though with internal divisions over strategy. Public opinion polls showed support for independence fluctuating between 40-50%, below the level needed for a clear mandate. The Spanish government maintained its opposition to independence while offering dialogue on other issues.

The Catalan crisis had broader implications for Spain and Europe. It highlighted tensions in Spain's territorial model and raised questions about self-determination versus constitutional order in democratic societies. For the European Union, it presented a dilemma between respecting member states' territorial integrity and acknowledging democratic expressions of regional identity. The EU consistently supported Spain's position, emphasizing that an independent Catalonia would find itself outside the EU and would need to apply for membership.

Economically, the 2017 crisis temporarily damaged Catalonia's economy, with thousands of companies relocating their legal headquarters elsewhere in Spain due to uncertainty. However, the region remained one of Spain's economic powerhouses, contributing approximately 20% of Spanish GDP.

The unresolved nature of the Catalan question continues to influence Spanish politics, with right-wing parties generally advocating a harder line against separatism while left-wing parties favor dialogue and potential constitutional reforms to accommodate regional aspirations within a united Spain.

The Point of Divergence

In this alternate timeline, the Catalan independence process takes a fundamentally different path beginning in mid-2017. Instead of proceeding with a unilateral referendum and declaration of independence, Catalan President Carles Puigdemont and his government pursue a more strategic approach that ultimately leads to a negotiated path to independence.

The key divergence occurs in July 2017, when Puigdemont, recognizing the risks of unilateralism, secretly initiates back-channel negotiations with moderate elements in the Spanish government. These discussions, facilitated by respected European diplomats, focus on establishing a framework for a legally recognized referendum. Simultaneously, Puigdemont works to build broader international support by emphasizing Catalonia's commitment to democratic principles, rule of law, and European values.

In this timeline, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, facing mounting international pressure and concerned about potential economic disruption, reluctantly agrees to a framework that would allow a binding referendum under specific conditions:

A clear supermajority requirement (55% for independence)
A minimum turnout threshold (65% of eligible voters)
A two-year negotiation period before implementation if independence is approved
Guarantees regarding debt sharing, citizenship rights, and continued cooperation

This agreement, announced in September 2017 to widespread surprise, is formalized through emergency legislation in both the Spanish and Catalan parliaments. The referendum is scheduled for April 15, 2018, allowing for a full campaign period where both sides can present their cases.

The campaign is intense but largely peaceful. The Spanish government vigorously advocates for Catalonia to remain, offering enhanced autonomy including greater fiscal powers. The pro-independence camp emphasizes Catalonia's distinct identity and the economic benefits of independence. European leaders, while officially neutral, signal that an independent Catalonia following this legal process could expect a path to EU membership.

On referendum day, turnout reaches 79% of eligible voters. When the votes are counted, 57.3% have chosen independence, exceeding the required threshold. Puigdemont declares victory, while Rajoy acknowledges the result and announces that negotiations on separation terms will begin as agreed.

This outcome sets in motion a complex two-year process of negotiating Catalonia's transition to independence, scheduled to take effect on May 1, 2020. The negotiations are difficult but proceed within the established framework, fundamentally altering the political landscape of Spain and creating Europe's newest independent state through a process unprecedented in its democratic legitimacy.

Immediate Aftermath

Political Reconfiguration

The referendum result triggered immediate political changes in both Catalonia and Spain. In Catalonia, President Puigdemont formed a cross-party "Transition Council" including representatives from all pro-independence parties to oversee the independence process. This council established working groups on constitutional development, international recognition, economic transition, and citizenship rights.

The Catalan Parliament began drafting a provisional constitution, drawing on extensive public consultation. The draft maintained Catalonia as a parliamentary democracy with strong protections for minority rights, including guarantees for Spanish speakers. It also provided for a transitional period during which certain Spanish laws would remain in effect to ensure stability.

In Madrid, Prime Minister Rajoy faced severe political backlash from Spanish nationalists who accused him of betraying national unity. His government nearly collapsed when several ministers resigned in protest, but he managed to maintain a fragile majority by emphasizing that the negotiated approach avoided the chaos of unilateral secession and protected Spanish economic interests.

Spanish politics polarized further, with the right-wing opposition parties Ciudadanos and Vox gaining support through strong anti-independence rhetoric. The Socialist Party (PSOE) took a more nuanced position, criticizing Rajoy's handling of the crisis while accepting the democratic result and focusing on ensuring favorable terms in the separation negotiations.

Negotiation Process

The negotiations between Spanish and Catalan representatives were structured around five main committees:

Economic and Financial Affairs: Addressing debt allocation, currency arrangements, pension rights, and division of assets
Citizenship and Border Management: Determining citizenship options, residence rights, and border control mechanisms
International Relations: Managing the transition of treaty obligations and international organization memberships
Security and Defense: Arranging the division of security responsibilities and military assets
Infrastructure and Public Services: Ensuring continuity in transportation, utilities, and public services

The economic negotiations proved particularly challenging. After months of difficult talks, an agreement was reached whereby Catalonia would assume approximately 19% of Spanish public debt (slightly below its population share but reflecting its higher contribution to GDP). In exchange, Catalonia agreed to continue contributing to certain shared services during a five-year transition period.

On currency, Catalonia would continue using the euro, though without formal representation in the European Central Bank until it achieved EU membership. The Bank of Spain's assets in Catalonia would transfer to a new Catalan Central Bank, which would operate under European banking regulations.

Citizenship arrangements were relatively straightforward: all residents of Catalonia would automatically receive Catalan citizenship while retaining Spanish citizenship if desired. A special status was created for Spanish citizens wishing to live or work in Catalonia, and vice versa, preserving freedom of movement between the territories.

Economic Adjustments

The two-year negotiation period allowed for more orderly economic adjustments than would have occurred with unilateral independence. Nevertheless, the referendum result created significant economic uncertainty.

In the weeks following the vote, the Spanish stock market fell approximately 8%, while borrowing costs for both Spanish and (future) Catalan debt increased. The European Central Bank issued statements emphasizing its commitment to financial stability throughout the transition process, helping to calm markets somewhat.

Some businesses relocated from Catalonia to other parts of Spain, particularly those with strong ties to the Spanish public sector or concerns about future EU market access. However, this movement was less dramatic than in our timeline's 2017 crisis, as the negotiated process provided greater certainty. Other companies, particularly those focused on international markets or supportive of independence, expanded their Catalan operations.

Trade patterns began shifting gradually. Catalan exports to the rest of Spain declined by approximately 15% during the transition period, partially offset by increased trade with France, Germany, and other European countries. The tourism sector experienced a temporary downturn due to negative publicity but recovered as the political situation stabilized.

Property markets saw divergent trends, with some areas of Barcelona experiencing price decreases as Spanish nationals sold properties, while other areas saw increased interest from international buyers attracted by the prospect of a new, business-friendly European state.

Social and Cultural Impact

The referendum result intensified both celebration and anxiety in Catalan society. Pro-independence supporters held massive festivities in Barcelona and other cities, with the Catalan flag (Senyera) and independence flag (Estelada) displayed prominently throughout the region.

However, the approximately 43% who voted against independence experienced a range of emotions from disappointment to genuine fear about their future. Community relations were strained in some areas, particularly in regions with higher concentrations of Spanish speakers who felt their identity might be threatened.

The Catalan government made concerted efforts to reassure the Spanish-speaking population, emphasizing that both Catalan and Spanish would remain official languages and that Spanish cultural heritage would be respected. Special commissions were established to address concerns from minority communities and ensure their representation in the constitutional development process.

Media coverage reflected the polarized environment, with Catalan outlets generally celebrating the result while Spanish national media adopted more critical perspectives. International media coverage was mixed but generally portrayed the process as a significant democratic exercise, contrasting it with more contentious independence movements elsewhere.

International Reactions

International reactions to Catalonia's vote were cautious but generally accepting of the democratic process. The European Union, which had maintained neutrality during the campaign, issued a statement acknowledging the result and expressing willingness to discuss Catalonia's future relationship with the EU once independence was formalized. However, it emphasized that Catalonia would need to apply for membership, though potentially through an accelerated process given its existing compliance with EU law.

NATO similarly indicated openness to Catalan membership while noting that formal application would need to follow independence. The United States recognized the referendum as a legitimate democratic exercise while emphasizing its desire for continued strong relationships with both Spain and the future Catalan state.

Countries with their own separatist movements reacted more cautiously. The United Kingdom, still managing Brexit and concerned about Scottish independence aspirations, emphasized the importance of negotiated solutions to territorial disputes. Belgium, with its own linguistic divisions, adopted a similar position. Canada acknowledged the result while emphasizing the differences between Catalonia's agreed referendum and Quebec's situation.

Russia, seeing an opportunity to highlight Western democratic inconsistencies, was more openly supportive of Catalonia's democratic choice, though this created some wariness among Catalan leaders concerned about being used for geopolitical purposes.

Long-term Impact

Political Evolution

Catalan Governance

Catalonia achieved formal independence on May 1, 2020, as scheduled. The first elections to the independent Catalan Parliament were held in June 2020, with a more diverse political landscape emerging. The previously dominant independence coalition fragmented as parties that had united around the independence goal now differentiated themselves on traditional left-right issues.

By 2023, Catalan politics had developed a more conventional spectrum, though with distinctive Catalan characteristics. The center-right PDeCAT (Puigdemont's party) and the center-left ERC competed for government, with smaller parties including the socialist PSC, left-wing CUP, and conservative Vox-Catalonia playing significant roles. This multi-party system typically produced coalition governments, fostering a political culture of negotiation and compromise.

Catalonia's permanent constitution, ratified by referendum in 2022, established a parliamentary republic with strong protections for civil liberties, minority rights, and regional autonomy within Catalonia. It included innovative provisions for citizen participation, including regular deliberative assemblies on major policy questions and mechanisms for citizen-initiated legislation.

Spanish Political Reconfiguration

Spain underwent significant political transformation following Catalan independence. The traditional two-party system dominated by the conservative People's Party (PP) and the socialist PSOE gave way to a more fragmented landscape. Rajoy's government collapsed shortly after the independence negotiations concluded, leading to a period of political instability.

The territorial question remained central to Spanish politics, with parties divided between those advocating recentralization to prevent further separatism and those proposing a more federal model to accommodate regional aspirations. This debate eventually led to constitutional reforms in 2023 that established a more explicitly federal system for the remaining autonomous communities, with clearer division of powers and enhanced fiscal autonomy.

The loss of Catalonia, while economically and psychologically painful for Spain, ultimately catalyzed long-overdue reforms to the country's territorial model. These reforms helped address grievances in regions like the Basque Country and Galicia, reducing support for independence movements there.

European Implications

Catalonia's successful independence through a negotiated, democratic process established a new precedent in European politics. While EU officials emphasized the unique circumstances of the Catalan case, the process influenced discussions about self-determination throughout Europe.

Scotland's independence movement gained renewed momentum, citing the Catalan example of achieving independence through democratic means. In Belgium, discussions about potential peaceful separation of Flanders and Wallonia became more mainstream, though without immediate practical steps toward division.

The EU itself evolved its approach to regional autonomy and potential new member states, developing clearer guidelines for handling territorial changes within member states. This included procedures for regions of existing member states to maintain EU relationship continuity during transitions to independence, provided the process occurred with the consent of the original member state.

Economic Developments

Catalan Economy

Catalonia's economic trajectory after independence was mixed but generally positive after initial adjustment challenges. The new state maintained a strong export-oriented economy, leveraging its industrial base, tourism appeal, and growing technology sector.

The transition to independent economic institutions proceeded relatively smoothly. The Catalan Central Bank established credibility through conservative monetary policies while the country continued using the euro. Tax collection, previously a major grievance with Spain, was reformed to improve efficiency and compliance.

EU membership negotiations progressed steadily, with formal accession occurring in 2025 after a five-year process. During the interim period, special arrangements maintained most economic integration, though with some additional administrative requirements for Catalan businesses trading with the EU.

By 2023, Catalonia's GDP per capita had recovered to approximately 105% of its pre-independence level, with particularly strong performance in technology, renewable energy, biomedical research, and high-value manufacturing. Barcelona strengthened its position as a major European business hub, attracting substantial international investment and talent.

Spanish Economic Adjustment

Spain faced significant economic challenges following Catalan independence. The loss of Catalonia's economic output (approximately 20% of Spanish GDP) created immediate fiscal pressures and necessitated painful adjustments to public spending.

However, the negotiated nature of the separation allowed for orderly economic transition rather than chaotic disruption. The Spanish economy gradually adapted, with some regions like Valencia, Madrid, and the Basque Country experiencing accelerated growth as businesses relocated from Catalonia or expanded to serve markets previously dominated by Catalan firms.

The Spanish government implemented substantial economic reforms, partly necessitated by the post-Catalonia fiscal reality. These included labor market modernization, education system improvements, and digital transformation initiatives. By 2023, Spanish GDP had recovered to approximately 95% of its pre-separation level in real terms, with more balanced regional development than before.

Trade and Economic Relations

Economic relations between Catalonia and Spain evolved from initial tension to pragmatic cooperation. While trade between the two declined by approximately 25% in the first years after independence, it stabilized and began recovering as political relations normalized.

Cross-border infrastructure remained integrated, with joint management of key transportation links, water resources, and energy systems. A comprehensive economic cooperation agreement, signed in 2022, reduced trade barriers and established mechanisms for resolving commercial disputes.

Both economies became more internationally oriented following separation. Catalonia increased trade with France, Germany, and other EU countries, while Spain strengthened economic ties with Portugal, Morocco, and Latin America. This diversification ultimately reduced their economic vulnerability and dependence on each other.

International Relations

Catalonia's Global Position

Independent Catalonia established itself as a small but active European nation with a distinctive foreign policy emphasizing multilateralism, environmental leadership, and cultural diplomacy. It joined the United Nations in 2020 and the EU in 2025, while also participating in organizations including the Council of Europe, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and the Union for the Mediterranean.

Catalonia developed particularly close relationships with neighboring countries including France, Portugal, and Andorra, as well as culturally connected regions like Valencia and the Balearic Islands (which remained part of Spain). It also emphasized connections with other middle powers with similar values, including the Nordic countries, Canada, and New Zealand.

With limited military capabilities, Catalonia focused on specialized contributions to international security, including cybersecurity, humanitarian assistance, and maritime security in the Mediterranean. It joined NATO in 2026 as its 31st member, though with a limited military role focused on these niche capabilities.

Spain's International Repositioning

Spain underwent a significant recalibration of its international position following Catalan independence. After an initial period of diplomatic efforts to limit recognition of Catalonia, pragmatism prevailed, and Spain shifted focus to maintaining its influence in the EU and strengthening other international relationships.

Spain's position within the EU evolved, with some initial reduction in influence due to smaller population and economic output. However, Spanish diplomats worked effectively to ensure continued relevance, particularly on issues related to Mediterranean security, relations with North Africa, and Latin American engagement.

Spain-Catalonia relations gradually improved from initial tension to functional cooperation. By 2023, the two countries had established comprehensive bilateral mechanisms for addressing shared challenges, from migration to environmental protection. While political rhetoric occasionally reverted to antagonism, particularly during election periods, practical cooperation continued regardless.

European Integration Dynamics

Catalonia's independence and subsequent EU accession influenced broader European integration dynamics. The process demonstrated both the EU's flexibility in accommodating democratic changes to its membership and its insistence on orderly processes respecting existing legal frameworks.

The experience led to clearer EU policies regarding territorial changes within member states, establishing that regions achieving independence with the consent of their parent state could expect streamlined (though not automatic) paths to EU membership.

This clarification had stabilizing effects in some regions with independence aspirations, as it established that unilateral secession would not be rewarded with EU membership, while negotiated processes could lead to continued European integration. This encouraged dialogue in several regions with separatist movements.

Social and Cultural Developments

Catalan Identity and Society

Catalan national identity evolved in interesting ways after independence. The initial surge of nationalist sentiment gradually gave way to more nuanced expressions of Catalanness that incorporated both traditional elements and forward-looking, cosmopolitan values.

Language policy remained a sensitive issue. While Catalan was established as the primary official language, Spanish maintained co-official status, and the government implemented policies to ensure that Spanish speakers did not face discrimination. Bilingualism increased in both directions, with more native Catalan speakers becoming fully fluent in Spanish and vice versa.

Immigration to Catalonia increased following independence and EU membership, creating a more diverse society, particularly in Barcelona and other urban areas. The Catalan government actively encouraged immigration to address demographic challenges and labor market needs, implementing integration programs that emphasized Catalan language learning while respecting cultural diversity.

Cultural Expression and Media

Catalan cultural expression flourished in the post-independence environment. Film, television, literature, and music saw increased production and international recognition, supported by government investment in cultural industries and international promotion.

A new Catalan public broadcaster, established from the former regional network TV3, developed a stronger international presence while maintaining some content-sharing arrangements with Spanish media. Private media ownership diversified, with some Catalan-owned outlets emerging alongside Spanish and international media companies operating in the Catalan market.

Barcelona strengthened its position as a major European cultural capital, hosting expanded international festivals, exhibitions, and cultural exchanges. The city's architectural heritage, including Gaudí's works, remained major tourist attractions, while new cultural infrastructure projects reflected the confidence of the independent state.

Spanish Society and Identity

In Spain, the departure of Catalonia prompted reflection on national identity and values. The initial sense of loss and failure gradually gave way to a reimagining of Spanish identity that acknowledged the country's plurinational character while finding new sources of cohesion.

The constitutional reforms of 2023 formally recognized Spain as a "nation of nations," with greater acknowledgment of the distinct historical communities within the state. This recognition, combined with enhanced autonomy for regions like the Basque Country and Galicia, helped address some of the grievances that had fueled separatism.

Spanish cultural expression engaged deeply with the national trauma of separation, producing significant literature, film, and art exploring themes of identity, loss, and renewal. This cultural processing helped Spanish society come to terms with the new reality and begin developing a forward-looking national narrative.

Technological and Economic Innovation

Barcelona as a Tech Hub

Independent Catalonia invested heavily in positioning Barcelona as a major European technology center. Building on the city's existing strengths in mobile technology, biotech, and design, the government implemented policies to attract international tech companies and nurture local startups.

These efforts included tax incentives for R&D investment, streamlined visa processes for tech talent, expanded technical education programs, and the development of innovation districts like the 22@ area. By 2023, Barcelona had established itself as one of Europe's top five tech hubs, sometimes described as "Europe's San Francisco" for its combination of technological innovation, cultural vibrancy, and quality of life.

The Mobile World Congress, already hosted in Barcelona before independence, expanded its presence, and the city attracted additional major technology events and corporate headquarters. This tech ecosystem created high-value employment opportunities and stimulated innovation across multiple sectors.

Renewable Energy Leadership

Both Catalonia and post-separation Spain emerged as leaders in renewable energy, though with different emphases. Catalonia focused on urban sustainability, offshore wind, and integration of renewables into its industrial base. Its government set ambitious targets for carbon neutrality and implemented policies to accelerate the energy transition.

Spain, with its extensive open territories, doubled down on solar and onshore wind development, becoming Europe's largest producer of solar energy by 2025. This focus on renewables helped revitalize rural areas affected by depopulation and created new economic opportunities in regions that had traditionally lagged behind Catalonia economically.

This parallel development of renewable energy expertise created opportunities for cooperation despite the political separation, with Spanish and Catalan companies often collaborating on international projects combining their complementary capabilities.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Montserrat Guibernau, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, observes: "Catalonia's negotiated path to independence would represent a significant innovation in how self-determination conflicts are resolved in democratic contexts. Unlike most historical independence movements, which involved either unilateral action or decolonization, this process would establish a precedent for peaceful, democratic separation within a developed democracy. The key factors enabling success would be the democratic legitimacy conferred by a clear referendum result and the pragmatic acceptance of this outcome by the Spanish state, however reluctant. This case would demonstrate that while constitutional frameworks typically lack provisions for secession, democratic principles can sometimes necessitate flexibility when faced with clear popular mandates."

Professor Ignacio Sánchez-Cuenca, political scientist at Carlos III University in Madrid, offers a perspective on Spanish democracy: "Spain's eventual acceptance of Catalan independence, while painful, might paradoxically strengthen Spanish democracy in the long run. By demonstrating that the constitutional order can accommodate fundamental change when democratically demanded, Spain would move beyond the 'militant democracy' model that sometimes prioritizes constitutional unity over democratic expression. The subsequent reforms to create a more federal system for remaining regions would address long-standing tensions in Spain's territorial model. While the economic and psychological costs would be substantial, the political system might emerge more flexible and responsive to regional diversity."

Dr. Elisenda Casanas Adam, lecturer in public law at the University of Edinburgh, provides insight on European dimensions: "The EU's handling of Catalan independence would require significant innovation in its approach to territorial changes within member states. While maintaining that independence movements are internal matters, the EU would need to develop clearer protocols for regions achieving independence by democratic, negotiated means. This would likely include transitional arrangements preserving economic integration during the accession process. Such an approach would balance respect for existing member states' concerns about separatism with the EU's fundamental values of democracy and self-determination. The precedent would be carefully circumscribed but would nevertheless influence how the EU approaches regional autonomy and potential future cases of independence."