What If the Crusades Never Happened?

The Actual History

The Crusades represent one of the most significant series of military campaigns in medieval history, profoundly shaping relations between Western Christianity, Eastern Orthodoxy, and Islam for centuries. These religiously motivated expeditions to the Holy Land spanned nearly two centuries, from 1095 to 1291, and fundamentally altered the political, religious, and cultural landscape of Europe and the Middle East.

The origins of the Crusades can be traced to several converging factors in the late 11th century. The Byzantine Empire, which had long served as a buffer between Western Europe and the Islamic world, was facing increasing pressure from the Seljuk Turks, who had defeated Byzantine forces at the Battle of Manzikert in 1071 and subsequently occupied much of Anatolia (modern Turkey). In 1095, Byzantine Emperor Alexios I Komnenos sent envoys to Pope Urban II requesting military assistance against the Turks.

Pope Urban II transformed this request for aid into a much broader religious mission. At the Council of Clermont in November 1095, he delivered an impassioned speech calling for Western Christians to take up arms to help their Eastern brethren and to liberate Jerusalem and the Holy Land from Muslim control. Urban promised spiritual rewards, including the remission of sins, for those who participated in this "armed pilgrimage." His call resonated throughout Western Europe, inspiring thousands to "take the cross" (the origin of the term "crusade").

The First Crusade (1096-1099) began with the chaotic and disastrous People's Crusade, led by Peter the Hermit and Walter Sans Avoir, which resulted in the massacre of thousands of untrained peasants in Anatolia. However, the subsequent, better-organized expedition of knights and nobles achieved remarkable success. Despite a lack of unified command, the crusaders captured Nicaea and Antioch before taking Jerusalem in July 1099. The brutal sack of Jerusalem, during which crusaders massacred many Muslim and Jewish inhabitants, established four "Crusader States": the Kingdom of Jerusalem, the County of Edessa, the Principality of Antioch, and the County of Tripoli.

The Second Crusade (1147-1149) was launched in response to the fall of Edessa to Muslim forces in 1144. Led by King Louis VII of France and Holy Roman Emperor Conrad III, this crusade failed to recapture Edessa and ended in a disastrous attempt to take Damascus.

The most significant setback for the crusader states came in 1187 when Saladin, the Sultan of Egypt and Syria, defeated crusader forces at the Battle of Hattin and subsequently recaptured Jerusalem. This loss prompted the Third Crusade (1189-1192), led by Emperor Frederick Barbarossa, King Philip II of France, and King Richard I "the Lionheart" of England. While Frederick drowned en route and Philip returned to France early, Richard achieved some military successes against Saladin, ultimately securing a treaty that allowed unarmed Christian pilgrims access to Jerusalem, though the city remained under Muslim control.

Subsequent crusades achieved even less success in the Holy Land. The Fourth Crusade (1202-1204) infamously diverted to Constantinople, where the crusaders sacked the Byzantine capital, severely weakening the Eastern Roman Empire and creating lasting animosity between Eastern and Western Christianity. The Children's Crusade of 1212 ended in tragedy, with many young participants dying or being sold into slavery. The Fifth through Eighth Crusades achieved only temporary gains or outright failures.

By 1291, with the fall of Acre, the last major crusader stronghold in the Holy Land, the era of the major crusades to the Levant had ended. However, the crusading movement continued in different forms, including campaigns against pagans in northeastern Europe, against Christian heretics (like the Albigensian Crusade against the Cathars in southern France), and against the advancing Ottoman Turks in southeastern Europe.

The Crusades had profound and lasting consequences:

Political Impact: The crusades contributed to the rise of monarchical power in Europe, as kings asserted authority over crusading nobles and the church. The weakening of the Byzantine Empire following the Fourth Crusade ultimately facilitated the Ottoman conquest of Constantinople in 1453.
Religious Consequences: The crusades deepened the schism between Eastern Orthodoxy and Roman Catholicism. They also institutionalized the concept of "holy war" in Western Christianity and created lasting negative perceptions between Christians and Muslims.
Economic and Cultural Effects: Increased contact with the Islamic world stimulated European trade and exposed Western Europeans to advanced Arab and Byzantine knowledge in fields like medicine, mathematics, and philosophy. Italian maritime republics like Venice and Genoa expanded their commercial networks and power.
Military Developments: European military architecture evolved through exposure to more sophisticated Eastern fortifications, while military orders like the Knights Templar and Knights Hospitaller emerged as significant powers.
Social Changes: The crusades contributed to the decline of feudalism, as many nobles sold their lands to finance their expeditions, and some peasants gained freedom by joining crusades.

The legacy of the crusades continues to influence international relations and religious perceptions today. While modern historians emphasize the complex motivations behind the crusades—including religious devotion, political ambition, economic opportunity, and social pressures—these medieval campaigns remain powerful symbols in both Western and Islamic collective memory, often invoked in contemporary political and religious discourse.

The Point of Divergence

In this alternate timeline, the chain of events that historically led to the Crusades takes a significantly different turn in the late 11th century. The point of divergence centers on the Byzantine Empire's approach to its challenges and Pope Urban II's response to them.

Let's imagine that Emperor Alexios I Komnenos, facing the Seljuk Turkish threat after the Battle of Manzikert in 1071, pursues a different strategy. Rather than sending envoys to Pope Urban II requesting Western military assistance in 1095, Alexios focuses entirely on diplomatic solutions with the Seljuks while strengthening his remaining territories. Perhaps he secures a more comprehensive peace treaty with the Seljuk Sultan, ceding some territory in Anatolia but stabilizing the Byzantine eastern frontier.

Simultaneously, in this alternate timeline, Pope Urban II faces different political circumstances in Western Europe and within the Church. The Investiture Controversy—the power struggle between the Papacy and Holy Roman Empire over the appointment of church officials—demands more of his attention and resources. Without the Byzantine appeal for help and preoccupied with European matters, Urban never makes his fateful speech at the Council of Clermont in November 1095.

Without Urban's call to arms, the religious fervor that historically united disparate European nobles and commoners in a common cause never coalesces. The concept of an "armed pilgrimage" with spiritual benefits, including the remission of sins, is not promulgated by papal authority. Individual knights and nobles might still undertake pilgrimages to Jerusalem, but they do so as individuals, not as part of a massive military campaign.

In this timeline, the Fatimid Caliphate, which controlled Jerusalem in the late 11th century, continues its generally tolerant policy toward Christian pilgrims visiting the holy sites. Without the threat of crusader armies, there is less reason to restrict Christian access to Jerusalem, maintaining the status quo that had existed for centuries where pilgrims of different faiths visited their respective holy sites under Muslim rule.

The People's Crusade never forms, sparing thousands of peasants from massacre in Anatolia. The military expedition of knights and nobles that historically became the First Crusade never assembles. The Kingdom of Jerusalem and the other Crusader States are never established. The military orders dedicated to protecting pilgrims and the Holy Land—the Knights Templar, Knights Hospitaller, and Teutonic Knights—either never form or develop along very different lines.

This single divergence—the absence of the call for crusade and the subsequent military expeditions to the Holy Land—creates a profoundly different trajectory for medieval Europe, the Byzantine Empire, and the Islamic world, with ripple effects extending into the modern era.

Immediate Aftermath

Political Reconfiguration in Europe

Without the unifying cause of the Crusades, European political development follows different patterns:

Continued Fragmentation: The Crusades historically provided a common cause that temporarily united various European powers and helped strengthen monarchical authority, particularly in France. Without this unifying factor, political fragmentation persists longer in Western Europe, with feudal lords maintaining greater independence from their nominal sovereigns.
Different Papal-Imperial Relations: The Papacy, lacking the prestige and authority gained from leading the Crusades, potentially has less leverage in its ongoing power struggle with the Holy Roman Empire. The Investiture Controversy might resolve differently, with long-term implications for church-state relations throughout Europe.
Norman Expansion Redirected: Norman adventurers, who historically participated enthusiastically in the Crusades, channel their martial energy elsewhere. This potentially accelerates Norman expansion in the Mediterranean, with greater pressure on Byzantine territories in Southern Italy and Sicily, or more extensive Norman involvement in Iberian conflicts.

Byzantine Empire Trajectory

The Byzantine Empire follows a significantly different path without the complex effects of the Crusades:

Gradual Stabilization: Without the disruption caused by massive Western armies passing through its territories and the catastrophic Fourth Crusade that historically sacked Constantinople in 1204, the Byzantine Empire potentially stabilizes its borders and internal governance. While still facing challenges from Seljuk Turks and other neighbors, the empire avoids the severe weakening that historically facilitated its eventual fall.
Different Religious Relations: The absence of Western military intervention prevents the deepening of the schism between Eastern Orthodoxy and Roman Catholicism that historically resulted from crusader behavior and the sack of Constantinople. Religious dialogue potentially continues on more equal terms.
Revised Military Strategy: Without Western crusader states creating buffer zones in the Levant, the Byzantine Empire develops different defensive strategies, potentially focusing more resources on Anatolia and less on distant territories in Syria and Palestine.

Islamic World Development

The Islamic powers of the region develop along different lines without the crusader threat:

Fatimid-Seljuk Dynamics: Without external Christian invasion, the conflict between the Shi'ite Fatimid Caliphate in Egypt and the Sunni Seljuk Turks remains the dominant political struggle in the region. Jerusalem and the Levant continue to change hands between these Muslim powers rather than becoming crusader states.
Delayed Kurdish Rise: Saladin, the Kurdish leader who historically united Muslim forces against the crusaders, might never rise to prominence in the same way. The Ayyubid Dynasty he founded might never form, altering the political landscape of Egypt and the Levant.
Different Urban Development: Cities like Acre, Antioch, and Jerusalem develop differently without the architectural and urban planning influences brought by Western European occupiers. Islamic architectural styles remain more dominant in the region's urban landscapes.

Economic and Trade Patterns

Commercial networks develop along different lines without crusader-established trade routes:

Mediterranean Commerce: Italian maritime republics like Venice and Genoa, which historically gained trading privileges and established commercial outposts through their support of the Crusades, find different paths to commercial expansion. Their trade with the Islamic world potentially develops more gradually and on terms more favorable to Muslim rulers.
Banking Evolution: The financial instruments developed to fund crusades, including early forms of banking and credit developed by the Knights Templar, evolve differently or emerge later. This potentially slows the development of European financial systems.
Luxury Goods Trade: The increased flow of Eastern luxury goods, spices, and textiles into Western Europe that historically accompanied the Crusades occurs more gradually. European demand for these products still exists, but the trade routes and mechanisms develop differently.

Cultural and Intellectual Exchange

The patterns of cultural and intellectual transmission between civilizations take different forms:

Gradual Knowledge Transfer: The relatively sudden exposure of Western Europeans to more advanced Arab and Byzantine knowledge in medicine, mathematics, philosophy, and other fields that historically accompanied the Crusades becomes a more gradual process. Knowledge still transfers, but through different channels and potentially at a slower pace.
Different Literary Traditions: The chivalric literature and crusader chronicles that historically emerged in Western Europe never develop in the same way. Literary traditions focus on different themes, potentially remaining more locally oriented rather than incorporating extensive Eastern elements.
Religious Pilgrimage Patterns: Christian pilgrimage to the Holy Land continues but remains more similar to its pre-Crusade form: smaller in scale, less militarized, and conducted under Muslim rule with appropriate taxes and permissions.

Military Developments

Warfare evolves differently without the crusading experience:

Fortification Technology: European castle design, which historically incorporated many elements observed in Byzantine and Islamic fortifications during the Crusades, develops more slowly or along different lines. The massive concentric castles inspired by crusader experiences might never become prominent in Western Europe.
Military Orders: The major military-religious orders—the Knights Templar, Knights Hospitaller, and Teutonic Knights—either never form or develop as smaller organizations focused purely on protecting pilgrims rather than becoming major military and economic powers.
Military Professionalization: The experiences gained by European knights in the Crusades historically contributed to the professionalization of warfare. Without these campaigns, military development in Europe follows different patterns, potentially remaining more feudal and less professional for a longer period.

Long-term Impact

Religious Evolution

The absence of the Crusades fundamentally alters the development of both Christianity and Islam:

Christian-Muslim Relations: Without the Crusades as a historical trauma, relations between Christianity and Islam develop along different lines. While conflicts still occur at various boundaries between these civilizations, the absence of the Crusades removes a powerful symbol of religious warfare that has historically poisoned interfaith relations.
Delayed Reformation: The corruption and worldliness of the Church, partly fueled by crusade indulgences and the wealth of military orders in our timeline, might develop more slowly or differently. This could potentially delay or alter the conditions that led to the Protestant Reformation in the 16th century.
Different Eastern Orthodoxy-Roman Catholicism Relations: Without the Fourth Crusade's sack of Constantinople (1204), which created lasting animosity between Eastern and Western Christianity, the schism between these branches might not become as deep or permanent. Efforts at reconciliation might find more fertile ground, potentially preventing or modifying the formal East-West Schism.
Alternative Islamic Development: Without the external pressure of the Crusades, which historically contributed to the militarization of Islamic societies and the emphasis on jihad as defensive warfare, Islamic theological and political development follows different paths. The concept of jihad might retain more of its internal, spiritual meaning rather than becoming associated primarily with external warfare.

Political and Territorial Developments

The political map of Europe and the Middle East evolves differently:

Byzantine Longevity: Without being critically weakened by the Fourth Crusade, the Byzantine Empire potentially survives longer, maintaining control of more territory in Anatolia and the Balkans. While still facing challenges from various neighbors, the empire might persist as a significant power into the later medieval period or beyond.
Different Ottoman Rise: The Ottoman Turks, who historically rose to power in the vacuum created partly by crusader weakening of both Byzantine and Seljuk states, might face a more resilient Byzantine Empire. Their expansion potentially takes different directions or occurs at a different pace.
Alternative Iberian Development: The Reconquista in Spain, which was influenced by and sometimes explicitly linked to the crusading movement, potentially proceeds differently—perhaps more slowly or with different patterns of Christian-Muslim coexistence in the peninsula.
Different Colonial Patterns: In the longer term, the absence of the crusading precedent might influence how European powers conceptualize and justify overseas expansion and colonization beginning in the 15th century. Without the crusading model of "justified conquest of non-Christian lands," colonial ideologies might develop along different lines.

Economic and Commercial Evolution

Trade and economic systems develop along alternative paths:

Mediterranean Commercial Powers: Without the commercial privileges and outposts gained through crusader conquests, Italian maritime republics like Venice and Genoa develop different patterns of trade with the Islamic world. Their rise to commercial dominance might be slower or take different forms.
Banking and Finance: The financial innovations associated with funding the Crusades, including early banking practices developed by the Templars and the expansion of papal taxation, emerge differently or later. This potentially slows the development of European financial capitalism.
Trade Route Development: Without crusader states creating European-controlled corridors to Eastern luxury goods, alternative trade routes might gain greater importance earlier. This could accelerate or delay European interest in finding sea routes to Asia, potentially affecting the timing and nature of the Age of Exploration.
Urban Development: Cities that historically benefited from crusade-related trade and finance—particularly in Italy and southern France—develop differently. Some might never achieve the prominence they historically did, while others might rise in their place.

Military and Technological Impact

Warfare and military technology evolve along different lines:

Castle Architecture: European fortification design, which historically incorporated many elements observed in Byzantine and Islamic structures during the Crusades, develops more slowly or differently. The massive concentric castles that characterized later medieval European military architecture might emerge later or in different forms.
Military Organization: Without the experience of large-scale expeditionary warfare gained during the Crusades, European military organization potentially remains more feudal and less professional for a longer period. The logistics of moving and supplying large armies over long distances develop more slowly.
Naval Technology: The naval innovations stimulated by the need to transport crusader armies across the Mediterranean might emerge more gradually. This could affect the timing and nature of European maritime expansion in later centuries.
Military Orders' Absence: Without the major military-religious orders that historically emerged from the Crusades, the landscape of European military, religious, and economic power looks substantially different. The vast wealth and lands accumulated by the Templars and Hospitallers remain in secular or traditional ecclesiastical hands.

Cultural and Intellectual Consequences

The cultural and intellectual landscape of Europe and the Middle East develops differently:

Different Knowledge Transmission: The transmission of Arabic knowledge in medicine, mathematics, astronomy, and philosophy to Western Europe still occurs but through different channels and potentially at a different pace. Universities might develop along different lines without the influx of translated Arabic texts that historically accompanied increased East-West contact during the Crusades.
Altered Literary Traditions: The chivalric romances and crusader chronicles that formed an important part of medieval European literature never emerge in the same form. Literary traditions focus on different themes and heroes.
Architectural Influences: Without exposure to Byzantine and Islamic architectural styles during the Crusades, Western European architecture potentially develops along different lines. The Gothic style, which incorporated some elements observed in the East, might take different forms.
Different Perceptions of "The Other": Without the Crusades creating powerful narratives about Christian-Muslim conflict, European perceptions of the Islamic world and vice versa develop differently. While stereotypes and misunderstandings would still exist, they might be less militarized and apocalyptic in nature.

Global Historical Implications

The absence of the Crusades has cascading effects on world history:

Different Colonial Ideologies: The crusading concept of "justified warfare against non-Christians" historically provided ideological foundations for later European colonialism. Without this precedent, colonial expansion might develop different justifications or face stronger moral questioning.
Alternative Ottoman-European Relations: Without the legacy of the Crusades coloring Ottoman-European relations, interactions between these powers potentially develop along different lines. The Ottoman Empire might be viewed less as an existential religious threat and more as a conventional political rival.
Modified European Identity: European identity, which historically incorporated the crusading experience as a formative element, develops differently. The concept of "Christendom" as a unified entity opposed to an external "other" might be weaker or take different forms.
Different Modern Middle East: In the very long term, the absence of the Crusades potentially alters the modern Middle East's development. Without this historical trauma and the later colonial experiences that sometimes explicitly referenced crusading precedents, relations between the Middle East and the West might develop along different lines.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Jonathan Phillips, Professor of Crusading History at Royal Holloway, University of London, suggests:

"The absence of the Crusades would have profoundly altered the development of papal authority and prestige. Urban II's call for the First Crusade in 1095 represented a dramatic expansion of papal power—suddenly, the Pope was not just a spiritual leader but someone who could mobilize massive military expeditions across political boundaries. This enhanced papal authority was then institutionalized through crusade taxation, indulgences, and the power to direct these 'armed pilgrimages.' Without the Crusades, papal development would have followed a different trajectory, likely remaining more focused on European ecclesiastical matters rather than international military ventures. The Papacy might have developed as a more purely religious institution rather than the hybrid religious-political-military power it became. This would have had cascading effects on church-state relations throughout Europe, potentially weakening papal claims to supremacy over secular rulers and changing the entire dynamic of medieval European politics."

Professor Carole Hillenbrand, expert in Islamic history at the University of Edinburgh, notes:

"From the Islamic perspective, the absence of the Crusades would have significantly altered both political developments and cultural memory. The counter-Crusade movement historically united previously fractious Muslim powers, most notably under Saladin, creating political configurations that shaped the region for centuries. Without the Crusader threat, the Fatimid Caliphate in Egypt might have persisted longer, maintaining a Shi'ite power center to balance the Sunni Seljuks and later Ayyubids. Perhaps most significantly, the concept of jihad, which gained renewed military emphasis during the counter-Crusade period, might have retained more of its internal, spiritual dimensions rather than becoming so strongly associated with defensive warfare against Christian invaders. The powerful cultural memory of the Crusades, which has been invoked from Saladin's time to the present day as a symbol of Western aggression, would never have formed. This absence would have removed a powerful historical narrative that has shaped Islamic-Western relations for nearly a millennium."

Dr. Michael Angold, Byzantine historian and Professor Emeritus at the University of Edinburgh, observes:

"For the Byzantine Empire, the absence of the Crusades would have been transformative. The Fourth Crusade's sack of Constantinople in 1204 was catastrophic, destroying much of the city's wealth, dispersing its artistic and intellectual treasures, and fatally undermining imperial power. Without this devastating blow, the empire might have maintained its position as a middle-ranking power for centuries longer. Even the earlier crusades were problematic for Byzantium, bringing massive, difficult-to-control Western armies through imperial territory and establishing Latin states that often competed with Byzantine interests. Without these disruptions, the empire could have focused on its gradual reconquest of Anatolia from the Seljuk Turks and maintained a more effective defense against various Balkan challengers. While the Byzantine Empire would still have faced significant challenges, the absence of the Crusades removes one of the most destructive elements in its historical decline. A longer-lasting Byzantine Empire would have maintained Greek Orthodox civilization as a significant force in the Eastern Mediterranean, potentially preventing or delaying Ottoman dominance in the region and preserving classical Greek learning more directly rather than through the circuitous route of Arabic translations that historically occurred."