What If Decolonization Happened Earlier?

The Actual History

The dismantling of European colonial empires – a process known as decolonization – primarily occurred in the decades following World War II. Prior to this, at their height in the early 20th century, European powers controlled approximately 85% of the world's landmass through their colonial possessions. Britain, France, Belgium, Portugal, the Netherlands, Spain, Germany, and Italy had carved up vast territories across Africa, Asia, the Middle East, the Caribbean, and the Pacific.

World War I (1914-1918) did bring some limited changes to this colonial order. Germany lost its colonies, which were distributed to other European powers through the mandate system established by the League of Nations. Woodrow Wilson's "Fourteen Points" speech in 1918 included the principle of "self-determination of peoples," but this was applied selectively, primarily to European ethnic groups rather than colonized peoples in Africa and Asia.

During the interwar period (1918-1939), nationalist movements gained strength in many colonies. India's independence movement under Mahatma Gandhi and the Indian National Congress intensified. Ho Chi Minh formed the Vietnamese Revolutionary Youth League in 1925. Pan-African congresses were organized. However, European powers largely maintained their colonial holdings, implementing some reforms but resisting substantial decolonization.

World War II (1939-1945) fundamentally weakened European powers economically and militarily while strengthening anti-colonial movements. The Atlantic Charter of 1941, signed by Roosevelt and Churchill, affirmed the right of all peoples to choose their form of government, although Churchill later insisted this did not apply to British colonies. Japan's wartime occupation of European colonies in Asia undermined the myth of European invincibility and accelerated nationalist movements.

The actual wave of decolonization began shortly after World War II. In 1947, British India gained independence, partitioned into India and Pakistan. In 1949, Indonesia secured independence from the Netherlands after four years of armed struggle. Between 1957 and 1965, most of Britain's and France's African colonies achieved independence, often after prolonged negotiations and sometimes after armed conflicts. Portugal, however, clung to its colonies until the mid-1970s, when its African territories gained independence following the Portuguese Revolution of 1974 and years of liberation wars.

The decolonization process was uneven and often violent. Algeria's war for independence from France (1954-1962) claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. Kenya's Mau Mau Uprising (1952-1960) against British rule was brutally suppressed before independence was granted in 1963. The Belgian Congo achieved independence in 1960 but immediately faced political crises, civil war, and foreign intervention.

The newly independent states emerged into a Cold War world where both the United States and Soviet Union sought influence, often resulting in proxy conflicts. Many post-colonial states struggled with artificial borders drawn by colonizers, ethnic tensions, underdeveloped economies dependent on former colonial powers, and weak democratic institutions. The Non-Aligned Movement, formalized at the 1961 Belgrade Conference, represented an attempt by post-colonial states to chart an independent course between the two superpower blocs.

By 1975, most of the world's colonial territories had achieved independence, though some smaller possessions remained. The legacy of colonialism—in economic structures, political institutions, cultural influences, and geopolitical alignments—continues to shape international relations and development challenges into the present day.

The Point of Divergence

What if decolonization had begun in earnest after World War I rather than after World War II? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where European powers, faced with the devastation of the Great War and growing anti-colonial movements, began dismantling their empires in the 1920s instead of maintaining them for another generation.

Several plausible mechanisms could have triggered this earlier decolonization:

First, Woodrow Wilson's principle of self-determination might have been applied more broadly. In our timeline, Wilson's idealism was compromised by European realpolitik and his own racial biases. But imagine if more consistent pressure from the United States had made colonial retention untenable, perhaps through economic leverage as European nations sought American loans to rebuild after the war. Wilson might have insisted that self-determination apply to all peoples as a condition for American financial assistance.

Second, anti-colonial movements could have gained greater momentum earlier. The Russian Revolution of 1917 already frightened Western powers with its anti-imperialist rhetoric. In this alternate timeline, more coordinated resistance movements might have emerged simultaneously across multiple colonies, perhaps inspired by international networks of anti-colonial intellectuals and activists who shared strategies and resources.

Third, war-weary European populations might have questioned the morality and expense of empire more forcefully. The Great War had demonstrated the hollow nature of claims to European moral superiority, and rebuilding devastated European economies while simultaneously maintaining distant colonial administrations represented a significant burden. In this alternate timeline, democratic pressures within Europe itself could have pushed governments toward decolonization.

Finally, more forward-thinking colonial administrators and politicians might have recognized the inevitable trajectory toward independence and decided to manage the process proactively rather than reactively. The British had already begun limited experiments with self-government in the "white dominions." In this alternate timeline, similar approaches might have been extended more broadly, with European powers establishing timetables for independence throughout their empires in the 1920s and 1930s.

This earlier decolonization would fundamentally alter the trajectory of the 20th century, creating ripple effects across global politics, economics, and culture that would grow more pronounced with each passing decade.

Immediate Aftermath

The League of Nations and a New International Order

In this alternate timeline, the League of Nations would take on a dramatically different character than in our history. Rather than serving primarily as a forum for European powers and their dominions, the League would become a genuine international organization with substantial representation from newly independent states in Asia and Africa.

The mandate system, which in our timeline allowed European powers to effectively claim former German colonies under League supervision, would instead become a more robust transitional mechanism. League mandates would have clearly defined timetables for independence, international oversight, and requirements for developing local administrative capacity and infrastructure.

Former colonies might initially join the League as "Associate Members" with partial voting rights during transitional periods, but would rapidly move toward full membership. By 1930, the League's Assembly would include dozens of newly independent states, dramatically shifting the balance of power in international diplomacy.

Economic Transitions and Challenges

The economic consequences of earlier decolonization would be profound and mixed. European economies, particularly Britain and France, would lose privileged access to colonial markets and resources at precisely the time they were rebuilding from World War I. This could potentially deepen and extend the economic difficulties of the 1920s.

For newly independent states, economic sovereignty would bring both opportunities and significant challenges. Many would initially maintain economic ties with former colonial powers through trade agreements, but would begin diversifying their economic relationships more quickly. Without the concentrated economic development of the post-WWII period, infrastructure development would be more gradual.

The global economic depression that began in 1929 would still occur in this timeline, but would unfold differently. European economies, having already adjusted to the loss of colonial markets, might prove somewhat more resilient. Meanwhile, newly independent states with less integration into global financial systems might be partially insulated from the worst effects, though commodity exporters would still suffer from price collapses.

Political Developments in Former Colonies

The political trajectories of newly independent states would vary considerably based on local conditions, leadership, and the circumstances of their decolonization.

In India, independence in the early 1920s would likely have avoided the partition that created Pakistan in our timeline. Without the religious polarization that intensified during WWII, and with key leaders like Gandhi and Jinnah still in the earlier stages of their careers, a unified federal India might have emerged. However, integrating the princely states and managing religious and ethnic diversity would remain significant challenges.

In Africa, earlier independence would mean emerging with somewhat stronger indigenous leadership structures and traditional institutions that had less time to be dismantled by colonial rule. However, the arbitrary borders drawn by colonial powers would still create challenges. Newly independent African states might have formed regional federations more successfully than in our timeline, as pan-African thought was strong in the 1920s, and leaders like W.E.B. Du Bois were actively promoting continental unity.

In Southeast Asia, colonies like Indonesia (then the Dutch East Indies) and Vietnam would have achieved independence before Japanese imperial expansion in the region. This would fundamentally alter the political trajectory of these nations, potentially avoiding the Cold War proxy conflicts that devastated the region in our timeline.

Cultural Renaissance and Identity Formation

The 1920s and 1930s would witness an unprecedented cultural renaissance across newly independent nations. Free from colonial censorship and cultural suppression, indigenous artistic traditions would be revitalized and modernized. Literary movements celebrating national identity would flourish earlier than in our timeline.

Educational systems, previously designed to create colonial subjects, would be rapidly reformed to foster national consciousness and technical skills needed for development. Universities in former colonies would expand dramatically, developing distinctive intellectual traditions that blended indigenous knowledge with international scientific and scholarly approaches.

This cultural rebirth would influence Europe as well. The Harlem Renaissance of our timeline might be magnified by stronger direct connections with independent African nations. European modernism would be even more influenced by African and Asian aesthetics than it was in our actual history.

Military and Security Arrangements

The security landscape would shift dramatically. European powers would maintain naval bases and military installations in some former colonies through negotiated agreements, but their global military presence would be significantly reduced.

Newly independent states would face the immediate challenge of building national defense forces, often from units previously commanded by colonial officers. Some might maintain defense partnerships with former colonial powers, while others would seek to demonstrate complete military independence.

Regional security arrangements would begin to emerge earlier than in our timeline, with groups of neighboring former colonies collaborating to address shared security concerns. The absence of Cold War dynamics would allow these arrangements to develop based more on regional priorities rather than superpower competition.

Long-term Impact

World War II Transformed

The most profound long-term consequence of earlier decolonization would be a fundamentally altered World War II—if such a conflict occurred at all in this timeline.

A Different Path to War

Without colonial possessions in Asia, European powers would have different strategic priorities in the Pacific. Japan's imperial ambitions would face a landscape of independent nations rather than European colonies. This might have accelerated Japan's aggression as it sought to establish a "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere," but would also have meant that resistance would come from national armies rather than colonial forces.

In Europe, Nazi Germany's rise might still occur given the economic conditions and political resentments following World War I. However, Hitler's expansionist ideology would confront a different international order. The "Lebensraum" (living space) concept might focus more exclusively on Eastern Europe rather than including dreams of reclaiming colonial territories.

Changed Military Dynamics

If a global conflict still erupted in this timeline, its military character would differ significantly. European powers without colonial manpower and resources would field smaller armies. Britain, for instance, could not draw on millions of Indian soldiers as it did in our timeline.

Newly independent states would make their own decisions about entering the conflict, forming alliances based on their perceived interests rather than being automatically committed by their colonial rulers. Some might remain neutral, while others might join the fight against fascism and militarism based on strategic calculations or ideological affinities.

The war's theaters would shift, with fewer campaigns in Africa and Southeast Asia. The focus might remain more concentrated on Europe and Northeast Asia, potentially changing the war's duration and outcome.

Post-War International Relations Without Cold War Dynamics

Perhaps the most striking divergence from our timeline would come in the post-WWII international order—assuming a similar conflict still occurred. Without the process of decolonization coinciding with Cold War competition, newly independent states would not become proxy battlegrounds between the United States and Soviet Union.

A Multipolar Rather Than Bipolar World

By the 1950s, the international system would likely be multipolar rather than bipolar. Regional powers and alliances would have had decades to establish themselves. Nations that in our timeline were lumped into the "Third World" would have developed more distinctive paths and international positions.

The concept of "non-alignment" might emerge earlier but with different characteristics. Rather than positioning themselves between American and Soviet blocs, independent nations would balance relations among multiple centers of power, including emerging regional leaders.

Different International Institutions

The United Nations (or its equivalent in this timeline) would be born with a fundamentally different character than in our history. Rather than being designed primarily by the victorious powers of WWII, it would evolve more directly from the League of Nations, with its more diverse membership.

International financial institutions would also develop differently. Without the Bretton Woods system emerging from American-led post-war planning, alternative arrangements for international trade and finance would evolve. Regional development banks might precede global institutions, creating a more decentralized international economic architecture.

Accelerated Economic Development Patterns

The economic trajectories of former colonies would diverge significantly from our timeline, though not uniformly.

Earlier Industrialization

Some former colonies with strong resource bases, strategic locations, or effective governance might achieve industrialization decades earlier than in our timeline. Without Cold War restrictions on technology transfer and with greater freedom to pursue economic policies suited to local conditions, countries like India, Egypt, or Indonesia might have industrial revolutions in the 1940s and 1950s rather than the 1970s and 1980s.

This accelerated development would not be universal, however. Nations with less favorable initial conditions might struggle with longer periods of economic experimentation before finding successful development models.

Different Economic Models

Without the binary choice between Soviet-style communism and Western capitalism that characterized the Cold War, a wider variety of economic systems would likely emerge. Some nations might develop mixed economies blending state planning with market mechanisms decades before China's reforms in our timeline. Others might experiment with cooperative ownership structures or develop distinctive approaches to balancing traditional economic practices with industrialization.

Earlier Regional Economic Integration

Regional economic integration would likely begin decades earlier than in our timeline. East African Federation, Southeast Asian economic cooperation, or South American common markets might emerge in the 1950s rather than the 1980s or later, building on decades of independent governance and distinctive regional identities.

Environmental and Demographic Patterns

The environmental consequences of different development patterns would be substantial:

Altered Resource Extraction and Environmental Policies

Resource extraction would follow different patterns without colonial economic structures designed to export raw materials to European manufacturing centers. Some former colonies might emphasize conservation earlier, while others might accelerate extraction under national control rather than foreign ownership.

Without the post-WWII "Green Revolution" as we know it, agricultural development would follow different trajectories. Indigenous farming practices might be preserved and gradually modernized rather than rapidly replaced by industrial agriculture.

Modified Demographic Transitions

Population growth patterns would differ significantly. Earlier improvements in public health combined with more gradual urbanization might lead to more manageable demographic transitions. The massive rural-to-urban migrations of the 1970s and 1980s in our timeline might instead occur more gradually over several decades, allowing infrastructure development to better keep pace with population growth.

Cultural and Intellectual Developments

The intellectual and cultural landscape by the early 21st century would be dramatically different:

Educational Systems and Knowledge Production

Universities in former colonies would have had an additional generation to develop distinctive academic traditions. Science, technology, and scholarly research would be less concentrated in Western institutions, with important centers of innovation emerging earlier across Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Indigenous knowledge systems would be more thoroughly integrated into formal education and research methodologies, potentially leading to different approaches to problems in medicine, agriculture, and environmental management.

Language and Cultural Influence

The global linguistic landscape would differ substantially. While English, French, and other European languages would still be important for international communication, indigenous languages would have stronger positions in education, government, and media. Multilingualism might be more widely valued and practiced.

Cultural production—from literature and film to music and visual arts—would reflect decades of additional independent development. By the early 21st century, cultural influences would flow more equitably among regions rather than predominantly from West to East and North to South as in our timeline.

Religious Developments

Religious movements would evolve differently without the overlay of Cold War secularization and later religious revivals. Indigenous spiritual traditions might maintain stronger continuity, while global religions like Islam and Christianity might develop more distinctive regional variations without the homogenizing influences that occurred during later decolonization in our timeline.

Present-Day Global Order (2025)

By 2025 in this alternate timeline, the global order would be markedly different from our own:

Power Distribution

Rather than the post-Cold War American unipolarity followed by the rise of China, global power would be more widely distributed. Regional powers in Africa, South America, and Asia would have had a century of independent development, creating a more balanced international system.

The Global South/Global North distinction would be less pronounced. Some former colonies would have living standards comparable to or exceeding those of former colonial powers, while others might still lag behind but with different patterns of development challenges than in our timeline.

Technology and Innovation

Technological innovation would be more distributed globally, with research centers across all continents making significant contributions. Digital technologies might have developed along different trajectories, potentially with greater emphasis on accessibility and appropriateness for diverse contexts from their inception.

Social and Cultural Identity

National and cultural identities would be more firmly established, with less of the post-colonial identity questions that characterized the late 20th century in our timeline. Global cultural exchanges would be more multidirectional, with influence flowing among all regions rather than predominantly from Western centers.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Amara Nkrumah, Professor of Global History at the University of Accra, offers this perspective: "Earlier decolonization would have fundamentally altered Africa's development trajectory. Without the intense Cold War competition that turned many newly independent African states into proxy battlegrounds, pan-African cooperation might have flourished. The arbitrary borders established by colonialism would still have posed challenges, but with more time to develop indigenous solutions before the technological acceleration of the late 20th century, African federations and regional cooperation mechanisms might have proven more successful. Most significantly, Africa's rich natural resources would have been developed under African control during crucial decades of global industrialization, potentially allowing for more balanced economic development."

Professor James Chakrabarti, Director of the Institute for Postcolonial Studies at Cambridge University, contends: "The counterfactual of earlier decolonization reveals how profoundly World War II and the Cold War shaped our modern world order. With independence in the 1920s rather than the 1950s and 60s, former colonies would have entered the international system before the rigid structures of the post-WWII order were established. They would have shaped international institutions rather than merely joining them on terms set by others. The most fascinating aspect would be the intellectual and cultural development—imagine if the great anti-colonial thinkers like Fanon, Césaire, or Cabral had written not as revolutionaries fighting for independence, but as citizens of nations that had been independent for decades. Their intellectual focus might have shifted from the psychology of colonization to questions of development, regional cooperation, and distinctive modernities."

Dr. Mei Lin Wong, Economic Historian at the National University of Singapore, suggests a more complex picture: "Earlier decolonization would not have been a panacea. Many newly independent states would have faced severe governance challenges without the institutional development that occurred, however problematically, in the later colonial period. The economic shock of separation from imperial economic systems during the turbulent interwar period might have led to prolonged instability in some regions. However, by avoiding the development models imposed during Cold War competition, these nations might have found more organic, regionally appropriate paths to prosperity. Southeast Asia in particular might have developed regional cooperation decades earlier, potentially creating an economic bloc with substantial global influence by the latter half of the 20th century."