What If Disney Never Bought 20th Century Fox?

The Actual History

In December 2017, The Walt Disney Company announced its intention to acquire 21st Century Fox, a major competitor and one of Hollywood's most storied studios. The $71.3 billion deal, which closed on March 20, 2019, represented one of the largest and most significant media mergers in history. Disney, already an entertainment powerhouse with ownership of Marvel Studios, Lucasfilm (Star Wars), Pixar, and its own legendary animation and live-action studios, absorbed much of Rupert Murdoch's media empire.

The acquisition included the 20th Century Fox film and television studios, FX Networks, National Geographic Partners, Fox's regional sports networks, and Fox's 30% stake in Hulu (giving Disney a controlling 60% ownership position). The Murdoch family retained Fox Broadcasting Company, Fox Television Stations, Fox News, Fox Business, and Fox Sports, reorganizing these assets into a new company called Fox Corporation.

Disney's stated rationale for the purchase centered on strengthening its position for the streaming era. In 2017, Disney had already announced plans to launch its own streaming service (later named Disney+) to compete with Netflix. The Fox acquisition gave Disney an enormous catalog of content and intellectual properties to bolster this effort, including film franchises like Avatar, Alien, and The Simpsons. Crucially, the deal brought Marvel properties previously licensed to Fox—most notably the X-Men, Fantastic Four, and Deadpool—back under Marvel's creative control.

The merger had profound implications for the entertainment industry. It further consolidated power in Hollywood, reducing the "Big Six" studios to five. The integration process resulted in significant layoffs—estimates suggest between 4,000-5,000 jobs were eliminated. Some film projects in development at Fox were canceled, and Fox's distinctive production slate, known for R-rated comedies and adult-oriented dramas, was largely curtailed to align with Disney's family-friendly image.

Following the acquisition, Disney became an even more dominant force in global entertainment. Disney+ launched in November 2019 and rapidly grew to over 100 million subscribers by 2021. The company began integrating Fox properties into its content strategy, with notable success including the release of Avatar: The Way of Water in 2022, which grossed over $2.3 billion worldwide. In the Marvel Cinematic Universe, former Fox-controlled characters began appearing in Disney productions, with 2024's Deadpool & Wolverine representing the first major integration of these previously-separate Marvel film universes.

By 2025, the effects of this historic acquisition continue to reshape the entertainment industry, influencing everything from theatrical distribution patterns to streaming competition and intellectual property management.

The Point of Divergence

What if Disney never bought 20th Century Fox? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where one of the most consequential media mergers in history failed to materialize, leaving both companies on separate trajectories and fundamentally altering the entertainment landscape of the 2020s.

Several plausible points of divergence could have prevented the acquisition:

Regulatory blockage: In our timeline, the U.S. Department of Justice approved the Disney-Fox merger with relatively minor concessions (primarily the divestiture of Fox's regional sports networks). In this alternate timeline, antitrust regulators under the Trump administration might have taken a stricter stance on media consolidation. The DOJ could have determined that Disney's growing dominance—particularly in theatrical market share, which would exceed 40% post-merger—posed too significant a threat to competition.

Comcast outbids Disney: Comcast actually entered a competing bid for Fox assets in June 2018, offering $65 billion in cash compared to Disney's initial $52.4 billion stock offer. In our timeline, Disney countered with its winning $71.3 billion bid. In this alternate reality, Comcast CEO Brian Roberts might have been more aggressive, securing financing for an even higher all-cash offer that the Fox board couldn't refuse—only for that deal to collapse under regulatory scrutiny, leaving Fox independent.

Murdoch family reconsideration: Perhaps the most plausible divergence centers on the Murdoch family itself. In this scenario, patriarch Rupert Murdoch has second thoughts about divesting much of his life's work. His son James, who favored the sale, loses an internal family struggle to Lachlan Murdoch, who convinces his father that the family should maintain control of the full Fox empire rather than retreat to just news and sports assets. Seeing Disney's initial offer as undervaluing their entertainment portfolio, and recognizing the growing importance of content libraries in the approaching streaming wars, the Murdochs decide to reject all acquisition offers and instead position 21st Century Fox as a major independent player in the evolving media landscape.

For the purposes of this alternate timeline, we'll focus on the third scenario: in December 2017, rather than announcing a sale to Disney, Rupert Murdoch surprises the business world by reaffirming his family's commitment to building 21st Century Fox into an entertainment powerhouse for the streaming era.

Immediate Aftermath

Wall Street Reactions

The financial markets responded with volatility to Fox's rejection of Disney's acquisition offer. Disney shares initially dropped 5% on the news, as investors had anticipated the strategic benefits of the merger. Meanwhile, 21st Century Fox shares fell nearly 10% as market analysts questioned whether the Murdochs were passing up the best offer they would ever receive.

"The Murdochs are making a massive bet that they can thrive as an independent entity in an increasingly consolidated media landscape," wrote media analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich of Bank of America in a December 2017 note to investors. "It's a bold move, but one that leaves them potentially vulnerable as smaller players like Viacom, CBS, and Lionsgate seek their own merger partners."

Within six months, however, both companies' stock prices had largely recovered. Disney announced an accelerated timeline for its direct-to-consumer streaming strategy, while Fox unveiled its own ambitious plans to compete in the digital entertainment space.

Disney Pivots Its Streaming Strategy

Without Fox's content library to bolster its upcoming streaming service, Disney was forced to recalibrate its approach. CEO Bob Iger convened an emergency strategic planning session in January 2018, bringing together leaders from across Disney's divisions to chart a new course.

The outcome was a two-pronged streaming strategy: Disney+ would still launch as planned, but with a more focused content offering centered on the company's core brands—Disney Animation, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, and National Geographic. Simultaneously, Disney announced it would increase its stake in Hulu (which remained a joint venture between Disney, Fox, Comcast, and Time Warner) from 30% to 45% by purchasing additional shares from Time Warner.

"We remain committed to establishing a significant presence in the direct-to-consumer space," Iger declared in a February 2018 earnings call. "While our approach has evolved, our belief in the future of streaming has not."

Without the Fox acquisition to finance, Disney redirected billions toward original content production, announcing ambitious slates of new shows for both Disney+ and Hulu. The company also accelerated international expansion plans for both services.

Fox's Independent Strategy Emerges

In March 2018, 21st Century Fox held an investor day where it unveiled "Fox Forward," a five-year strategic plan for remaining competitive as an independent media company. The plan included several key elements:

Content investment: Fox announced a $2 billion annual increase in content spending across its film and television studios, focusing on both established franchises (Avatar, Alien, Planet of the Apes) and new intellectual property development.

Digital transformation: The company revealed plans to launch "Fox+" in early 2020, a streaming service featuring content from 20th Century Fox, FX Networks, and National Geographic, as well as licensed programming.

Strategic partnerships: Rather than going it alone, Fox announced a global content partnership with Amazon Prime Video, giving the latter exclusive international distribution rights to many Fox productions while maintaining Fox's independence.

Marvel strategy: Fox confirmed its commitment to expanding its Marvel universe, announcing new films featuring the X-Men, Fantastic Four, and Deadpool, while exploring potential limited crossovers with Disney's Marvel characters through careful licensing agreements.

Lachlan Murdoch, elevated to the role of Executive Chairman, emphasized that remaining independent allowed Fox to preserve its creative culture. "We believe in making bold, innovative content that isn't always family-friendly," he told The Hollywood Reporter in April 2018. "That's been the Fox difference for decades, and it's a legacy worth protecting."

Industry Consolidation Takes Different Forms

Without the Disney-Fox merger as a catalyst, media consolidation in 2018-2019 followed a different pattern:

Comcast successfully acquired Sky plc in September 2018 for $39 billion (as happened in our timeline), strengthening its international presence.
Viacom and CBS accelerated their re-merger talks, combining in January 2019 (ten months earlier than in our timeline).
Warner Media, under AT&T's ownership, pursued additional acquisitions, including Lionsgate in mid-2019, further consolidating the independent film space.
Tech companies became more aggressive in entertainment acquisitions, with Apple purchasing Sony Pictures in a surprise $23 billion deal announced in December 2019.

The net effect was still significant industry consolidation, but with power distributed differently—and with Fox maintaining its position as a major independent player rather than being absorbed into the Disney ecosystem.

Long-term Impact

Streaming Wars: A Different Battlefield

By 2025, the streaming landscape in this alternate timeline looks markedly different from our own reality:

Disney's Streaming Empire: Without Fox's content library, Disney+ launched in November 2019 with a more limited but focused offering. The service still attracted significant subscribers based on the strength of Marvel, Star Wars, and Disney's animation catalog, but reached approximately 85 million subscribers by 2025—roughly 30% fewer than in our timeline. Disney compensated by taking full ownership of Hulu in 2021 (buying out Fox and Comcast's stakes), positioning it as their platform for more adult-oriented content while maintaining Disney+ as their family-friendly service.

Fox+: Launched in April 2020, Fox's streaming platform combined the studio's extensive film library with content from FX, National Geographic, and the Fox broadcast network. By leveraging franchises like The Simpsons (which remained exclusively on Fox+ rather than Disney+), Avatar, Alien, and its Marvel properties, Fox+ established itself as a significant streaming player with approximately 50 million global subscribers by 2025. The service found particular success with adult-oriented content, horror, and science fiction programming—areas where Disney historically treaded lightly.

Other Competitors: The alternate streaming landscape features several other major players:

Netflix remains the largest service with approximately 275 million subscribers
Warner-Lionsgate (combining HBO Max and Starz into a single platform) holds around 120 million
Apple TV+, bolstered by Sony's film and television library, reaches 90 million
Amazon Prime Video maintains roughly 200 million users with access to video content
NBCUniversal's Peacock struggles at around 30 million subscribers

The result is a more fragmented streaming marketplace with content spread across more services, higher cumulative consumer costs, and more frequent subscriber churn as viewers sign up for specific shows and then cancel.

Marvel's Fractured Universe

Perhaps the most noticeable difference for fans is the continued separation of Marvel properties across competing studios:

Marvel Cinematic Universe: Disney's MCU continued its successful run but faced creative challenges without access to the X-Men, Fantastic Four, and associated characters. Kevin Feige's team focused on developing previously underutilized characters from the available Marvel roster, including She-Hulk, Moon Knight, and Nova, while building storylines around cosmic entities that weren't tied to Fox's properties. In 2023, the MCU introduced its own version of the Illuminati—but without Professor X or Reed Richards, instead featuring Doctor Strange, Black Panther, Captain Marvel, and Namor.

Fox's Marvel Universe: Under the creative leadership of director Matthew Vaughn, who was appointed head of Fox's Marvel division in 2020, the X-Men franchise received a creative reboot focused on younger versions of the characters in a 1990s setting. Meanwhile, a critically acclaimed Fantastic Four reboot launched in 2022, and the R-rated success of the Deadpool franchise continued with a third installment in 2023 that featured a multiverse storyline allowing for limited cameos from certain Disney-owned Marvel characters (negotiated through a complex licensing agreement).

By 2025, fans experience two distinct Marvel cinematic universes operating in parallel, occasionally acknowledging each other through multiverse concepts but largely telling separate stories with different tones—Disney's more family-friendly approach versus Fox's willingness to explore darker, more mature themes.

Box Office and Theatrical Exhibition

The theatrical landscape evolved differently without Disney's absorption of Fox:

Market Share Distribution: Rather than Disney commanding up to 40% of the domestic box office (as happened in our timeline during 2019), market share remained more evenly distributed among studios. In 2024, market share approximated: Disney (24%), Warner Bros. (20%), Universal (18%), Fox (17%), Sony (10%), Paramount (8%), and others (3%).

Mid-Budget Films: Without Disney's family-friendly mandate reshaping Fox's production slate, 20th Century Fox continued producing a diverse range of films, including critically acclaimed mid-budget dramas and comedies that might have been relegated to streaming platforms in our timeline. Films like "The Eyes of Tammy Faye" and "Nightmare Alley" received theatrical runs with Fox's full marketing support rather than limited releases under Searchlight Pictures.

Theatrical Windows: Competition between more equal-sized studios prevented the dramatic collapse of theatrical windows that occurred during and after the pandemic in our timeline. By 2025, the standard exclusive theatrical window settled at approximately 45 days (compared to the previous 90-day standard and the variable, sometimes non-existent windows in our current reality). This compromise position emerged from negotiations between studios that maintained more equal bargaining power with theater chains.

Corporate Culture and Creative Direction

The most significant long-term impacts may be cultural rather than financial:

Fox's Independence: By remaining independent, 20th Century Fox preserved its distinct creative culture, continuing to develop and produce edgier, more adult-oriented content than typically associated with Disney. Under Lachlan Murdoch's leadership, the studio maintained investments in prestige dramas, horror franchises, and R-rated comedies alongside its tentpole productions. Fox Searchlight (which retained its original name rather than becoming "Searchlight Pictures") continued as the industry's premier specialty film division.

Disney's Evolution: Without Fox's assets to integrate, Bob Iger and his successor focused Disney's strategy on maximizing its existing intellectual property while developing new franchises internally. The company made fewer but larger bets on theatrical releases, averaging 10-12 films per year compared to the combined Disney-Fox slate of 20+ films in our timeline. Disney also invested more heavily in theme park expansions to leverage its core IP, including a major Star Wars land in Disneyland Paris and a Wakanda-themed area in Disney's Animal Kingdom.

Talent Relationships: The employment landscape for creative professionals remained more diverse, with Fox providing an important alternative for filmmakers whose visions didn't align with Disney's family-friendly approach. Directors like Guillermo del Toro, Ridley Scott, and Taika Waititi maintained strong relationships with Fox, creating films that might have faced creative constraints under Disney ownership.

Media Diversity: Perhaps most importantly, the continued existence of Fox as a major independent studio contributed to greater diversity in storytelling approaches, target audiences, and risk tolerance across Hollywood. While industry consolidation still occurred through other mergers, the preservation of Fox as a separate entity helped maintain a more pluralistic entertainment landscape.

Murdoch Family Legacy

By 2025 in this alternate timeline, the Murdoch family's decision to reject Disney's offer has reshaped their legacy and business empire:

Rupert Murdoch, now in his mid-90s, remains Chairman Emeritus of both Fox Corporation and 21st Century Fox, having successfully preserved the bulk of his media empire for the next generation. Lachlan Murdoch serves as Executive Chairman of both companies, while James Murdoch, who initially disagreed with the decision to reject Disney's offer, eventually reconciled with the family and oversees 21st Century Fox's international expansion.

The family's net worth, while perhaps not as immediately enhanced as it would have been through the Disney sale, has grown substantially as both companies successfully navigated the streaming transition. The decision to maintain independence has cemented Rupert Murdoch's reputation as a media visionary willing to adapt to changing times rather than cashing out at the peak—a narrative he has carefully cultivated in his final years.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Jennifer Holt, Professor of Media Industries at UCLA and author of "Empire of Entertainment," offers this perspective: "The Disney-Fox merger represented a turning point in media consolidation—one that in our timeline dramatically reduced competition and creative diversity in Hollywood. In a world where that merger never happened, we'd likely see more varied content reaching consumers. Fox's willingness to take risks on R-rated films, challenging dramas, and genre fare would have continued providing an important counterbalance to Disney's more family-oriented approach. The resulting competition would likely benefit both creators and audiences, even if it meant slightly less efficient business operations for the studios themselves."

Michael Nathanson, Senior Media Analyst at MoffettNathanson Research, suggests: "From a purely financial perspective, the Murdochs likely left billions on the table by not selling to Disney, especially considering the subsequent challenges facing traditional media companies. However, their decision to remain independent might have proven strategically sound in the longer term. Fox's valuable intellectual property—particularly its Marvel assets—would be extraordinarily valuable in today's content-hungry streaming marketplace. By controlling these properties themselves rather than selling them to Disney, the Murdochs preserved optionality that could ultimately generate greater returns through strategic partnerships, licensing deals, and direct-to-consumer offerings than an outright sale would have provided."

Amanda Lotz, Professor of Media Studies at Queensland University of Technology and author of "We Now Disrupt This Broadcast," analyzes the broader implications: "The streaming wars were always going to drive some degree of media consolidation, but the Disney-Fox merger represented a particular vision of what that consolidation would look like—one centered on intellectual property aggregation and walled content gardens. Without that merger establishing the template, we might have seen more emphasis on strategic partnerships and content licensing between competitors rather than outright ownership consolidation. The resulting media ecosystem would feature more interdependence among companies, potentially creating a healthier balance between competition and cooperation that could better serve diverse audience interests while still achieving some economic efficiencies."