What If Dundee Developed Different Post-Industrial Strategies?

The Actual History

Dundee, Scotland's fourth-largest city, experienced a dramatic economic transformation throughout the 20th century as it transitioned from an industrial powerhouse to a post-industrial economy. The city's industrial history was primarily built on the "three Js" – jute, jam, and journalism. By the late 19th century, Dundee had become the world center for jute processing, with over 60,000 people employed in the industry, representing nearly half the city's working population. Dundee's jute mills processed raw materials imported from the Indian subcontinent, producing coarse fabrics used for packaging, backing for linoleum, and various industrial applications.

However, the jute industry faced terminal decline after World War II due to competition from cheaper producers in India and Bangladesh. Between 1945 and the early 1970s, nearly all of Dundee's jute mills closed, resulting in massive unemployment, particularly affecting women who made up the majority of the jute workforce. The city's last major jute mill, Halley's, closed in 1998, marking the end of an era.

Parallel to this decline, Dundee's shipbuilding industry—which had flourished along the River Tay since the 19th century—also contracted sharply. The Caledon Shipyard, once one of Scotland's most significant shipbuilders, closed in 1981. Traditional manufacturing at companies like NCR (National Cash Register) and Timex also underwent substantial downsizing or closure by the 1990s, with the bitter Timex industrial dispute of 1993 becoming emblematic of Dundee's industrial decline.

Facing severe economic challenges by the 1980s and 1990s, Dundee embarked on a series of regeneration strategies. The city gradually pivoted toward education, healthcare, and creative industries. The presence of two universities—the University of Dundee (which gained independent status from the University of St Andrews in 1967) and Abertay University (granted university status in 1994)—became central to Dundee's reinvention.

A particularly successful development emerged unexpectedly in the digital creative sector, specifically video game development. The 1980s saw Dundee-based developers creating early games for platforms like the ZX Spectrum, with Abertay University launching the world's first computer games degree in 1997. This educational innovation helped foster what became a thriving gaming cluster, with the worldwide success of "Grand Theft Auto" (originally developed by DMA Design, later Rockstar North) representing the most notable achievement from this emerging ecosystem.

Beginning in the early 2000s, Dundee embarked on an ambitious £1 billion waterfront regeneration project, seeking to reconnect the city with the River Tay after decades of industrial decline and poor urban planning had separated them. The centerpiece of this development became the V&A Dundee, Scotland's first design museum and the only V&A museum outside London, which opened in 2018. Designed by Japanese architect Kengo Kuma, the striking building quickly became an iconic landmark and symbol of Dundee's cultural ambitions.

Despite these regeneration efforts, Dundee has continued to face significant socioeconomic challenges. The city has persistently high rates of poverty, unemployment, and drug-related deaths compared to Scottish and UK averages. As of 2023, multiple areas within Dundee rank among Scotland's most deprived zones according to the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. The benefits of regeneration have not been equally distributed across the city's population, with critics arguing that flagship projects like the V&A have primarily benefited tourists and more affluent residents while failing to address the structural inequalities facing many working-class communities.

Today, Dundee presents a complex picture of a post-industrial city in transition—celebrated for its cultural regeneration and creative industries on one hand, while still grappling with the lasting social and economic scars of deindustrialization on the other.

The Point of Divergence

What if Dundee had pursued radically different post-industrial strategies beginning in the 1980s? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where Dundee's civic leadership, business community, and educational institutions collectively charted an alternative course for economic regeneration following the collapse of traditional industries.

The point of divergence occurs in 1981-1982, during the depths of recession and following the closure of the Caledon Shipyard. In our timeline, Dundee's regeneration efforts through the 1980s and 1990s were characterized by fragmented initiatives, periods of policy inconsistency between changing local and national governments, and a gradual, somewhat accidental emergence of the creative digital sector.

In this alternate timeline, several developments occur differently:

First, the Dundee Project—a public-private partnership established in 1981 to address the city's economic challenges—adopts a more ambitious and coherent strategy. Rather than the somewhat piecemeal approach seen in our timeline, this alternative Dundee Project develops a 25-year comprehensive plan for economic transformation with greater continuity across political administrations.

Second, Dundee's two higher education institutions take different developmental paths. While in our timeline Abertay University (then Dundee Institute of Technology) gradually specialized in computing and creative technologies through the 1990s, in this alternate reality, it makes this strategic shift earlier and more emphatically, perhaps receiving special designation and funding as a national center for technological innovation as early as 1985.

Third, the city's approach to waterfront development follows an entirely different model. Rather than the focus on cultural regeneration through iconic architecture that eventually manifested with the V&A, this alternate Dundee might have embraced different paradigms—perhaps prioritizing manufacturing innovation, renewable energy technology, or becoming a pioneering "smart city" decades before this concept became mainstream.

These alternate paths could have emerged through various plausible mechanisms: a different composition of the city council following local elections; key entrepreneurial figures choosing to remain in or relocate to Dundee rather than departing; alternative national policies from either Conservative governments or an earlier devolved Scottish Parliament; or even international investment that bypassed Dundee in our timeline finding fertile ground in this Scottish city hungry for reinvention.

Immediate Aftermath

Alternative Educational Development

In this alternate timeline, Dundee's educational institutions undergo significant transformations beginning in the early 1980s, with profound implications for the city's development trajectory.

Dundee Institute of Technology (which would become Abertay University) receives special designation as a National Centre for Applied Technology in 1984, following intensive lobbying from local politicians and business leaders. This designation comes with substantial government funding, allowing the institution to invest in cutting-edge computing facilities several years earlier than in our timeline. Rather than gradually evolving into a leader in computer game education in the 1990s, the institution immediately positions itself at the forefront of computer science, applied technology, and industrial automation.

The University of Dundee, meanwhile, develops a different specialty focus. Rather than its eventual strengths in life sciences and medicine that developed in our timeline, the university builds on its engineering heritage to establish what becomes the UK's premier center for manufacturing innovation. By 1986, its newly established Institute for Manufacturing Futures attracts significant industry partnerships, initially focusing on modernizing traditional industries through automation and later pioneering advanced manufacturing techniques.

"The early specialization of Dundee's educational institutions created a virtuous cycle of talent attraction and retention," notes a 1989 report from the Scottish Development Agency. "The clear differentiation between the technology focus at DIT and the manufacturing innovation center at the University of Dundee has prevented competition and instead created complementary centers of excellence."

Maritime Innovation District

Rather than allowing its maritime industries to collapse entirely, this alternate Dundee repurposes its shipbuilding heritage in a novel direction. The closing Caledon Shipyard is not simply shuttered as in our timeline but becomes the nucleus for what city planners ambitiously dub the "Maritime Innovation District" in 1983.

Initial government funding secured through the Scottish Development Agency allows for environmental remediation of the industrial site and conversion of several facilities for new purposes. While traditional shipbuilding does not continue, a cluster of marine engineering companies takes root, focusing on specialized vessel designs, offshore energy equipment, and eventually, renewable marine technologies.

The former shipyard becomes home to Scotland's first purpose-built business incubator specifically focused on maritime technologies. By 1987, this incubator hosts seventeen small companies, many founded by former shipyard workers who have retrained through specialized programs at the educational institutions. These businesses focus on diverse areas including underwater robotics, wave energy conversion systems, and advanced materials for marine applications.

This development stands in stark contrast to our timeline, where the shipyard area remained largely derelict for many years following closure, eventually becoming part of the broader waterfront redevelopment plans decades later without retaining maritime industrial functions.

Digital Manufacturing Instead of Gaming

While in our timeline Dundee developed an organic strength in video game development, this alternate Dundee channels its emerging computing expertise in a different direction. Instead of entertainment software, the city becomes an early pioneer in what would later be termed "Industry 4.0" – the integration of digital technologies into manufacturing processes.

This shift begins in 1985 when NCR's Dundee facility, rather than focusing primarily on ATM production as in our timeline, becomes the company's global center for manufacturing automation systems. This decision to retain and expand operations in Dundee (rather than the gradual downsizing that occurred in reality) provides an anchor for the developing digital manufacturing ecosystem.

By 1988, a consortium of Dundee-based businesses, supported by both educational institutions, secures funding to establish the Advanced Digital Manufacturing Centre, focusing on computer-integrated manufacturing, early robotics applications, and automated quality control systems. This center attracts attention from traditional manufacturing businesses across Scotland and northern England seeking to modernize their operations.

The 1989 launch of the Dundee Manufacturing Technology Exhibition becomes an annual event, growing rapidly to attract international visitors. By 1991, the Financial Times reports that "Dundee has established itself as Britain's unexpected leader in the digitalisation of manufacturing processes, creating a new industrial paradigm that combines traditional manufacturing expertise with cutting-edge computing technology."

Housing and Urban Development

The alternate Dundee takes a markedly different approach to housing and urban planning compared to our timeline. Rather than focusing primarily on the waterfront, city planners prioritize comprehensive neighborhood revitalization beginning with the Hilltown and Stobswell areas in 1984.

The Dundee Community Housing Initiative, established as a partnership between the city council and newly formed housing cooperatives, takes an innovative approach to the deteriorating tenement housing stock. Instead of demolition and replacement with modernist structures (as occurred in many instances in our timeline), the program emphasizes restoration, energy efficiency retrofitting, and incremental development.

This approach draws inspiration from European models, particularly German housing cooperatives, following a study visit by Dundee planners in 1983. By 1987, the first phase of the housing initiative has created 300 restored dwellings managed through cooperative ownership structures, with shared equity models allowing lower-income residents to gradually build ownership stakes.

The program receives national recognition in 1988 when it wins the Royal Town Planning Institute's Award for Housing Innovation, with judges praising "Dundee's community-centered approach that preserves urban heritage while addressing modern housing needs." This contrasts with our timeline's more conventional social housing approaches and later gentrification pressures in some areas.

Long-term Impact

The Manufacturing Renaissance

By the late 1990s, Dundee's alternative development strategy produces a distinctly different economic profile than what emerged in our timeline. Rather than becoming known primarily for its cultural regeneration and creative digital industries, this alternate Dundee establishes itself as a center for what economists term "advanced manufacturing."

Digital Manufacturing Leadership

The early focus on digital manufacturing technologies positions Dundee ideally for the global manufacturing trends of the 2000s. The Advanced Digital Manufacturing Centre, established in the late 1980s, evolves into the Scottish Manufacturing Technology Institute by 1997, receiving substantial funding from both the UK government and the newly established Scottish Parliament after devolution.

This institute becomes globally recognized for its expertise in fields that would later be termed "smart manufacturing" or "Industry 4.0." By 2003, the institute hosts over 120 researchers and maintains partnerships with manufacturing facilities across Europe and Asia. Its specialties include:

Advanced robotics and collaborative automation systems
Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) applications
Predictive maintenance using machine learning
Digital twin technologies for manufacturing optimization

The presence of this institute and associated businesses creates an economic profile markedly different from our timeline. Rather than an economy increasingly dominated by services, education, and creative industries, manufacturing remains central to Dundee's identity but in a thoroughly modernized form. By 2010, manufacturing directly accounts for 27% of Dundee's economic output (compared to less than 10% in our timeline) and supports approximately 15,000 jobs across various skill levels.

Sustainable Industries Cluster

The Maritime Innovation District, initially focused on repurposing shipbuilding expertise, evolves through the 1990s and 2000s to become a globally significant center for renewable marine energy technologies. This transformation accelerates after 1997 as climate concerns gain greater political traction.

In 2001, the district hosts the establishment of the Marine Renewable Engineering Centre, a public-private partnership focused on developing commercial-scale wave and tidal energy systems. By 2005, the first commercial wave energy array developed in Dundee is deployed off Scotland's west coast, positioning the city as an early leader in this emerging field.

The former shipyard areas, largely abandoned in our timeline until much later redevelopment, become home to a thriving industrial ecosystem employing over 3,500 people by 2010 in fields including marine energy device manufacturing, underwater robotics, and specialized maritime engineering services.

This development connects to broader Scottish economic priorities around renewable energy, but with Dundee—rather than Aberdeen as in our timeline—positioning itself as the center for marine renewable technology. The legacy of shipbuilding skills finds new expression in the precision engineering required for wave and tidal energy systems.

Alternative Urban Development

The trajectory of Dundee's built environment follows a dramatically different path in this alternate timeline, with consequences for both the physical landscape and social dynamics of the city.

Distributed Regeneration Model

Rather than concentrating redevelopment efforts on the waterfront as occurred in our timeline, this alternate Dundee pursues what urban planners term a "distributed regeneration model." The successful neighborhood revitalization efforts that began in Hilltown and Stobswell in the 1980s expand to encompass additional areas including Lochee, Whitfield, and Douglas throughout the 1990s.

This approach emphasizes:

Preservation and adaptive reuse of industrial heritage
Distributed cultural facilities throughout neighborhoods rather than centralized flagship attractions
Mixed-income housing developments with strong cooperative governance models
Neighborhood-scale commercial districts rather than centralized retail

By 2015, this approach has produced a city with notably different physical and social characteristics than our timeline's Dundee. Rather than the stark contrasts between the regenerated waterfront and struggling peripheral neighborhoods, development benefits are more evenly distributed. The Economist notes in a 2015 feature that "Dundee has avoided the common post-industrial city pattern of gleaming center and neglected periphery, instead creating a more balanced urban fabric with multiple vibrant districts."

Industrial Heritage Integration

The alternate Dundee takes a different approach to its industrial past, choosing to integrate rather than replace these elements. The massive Camperdown Works—once the world's largest jute factory—becomes a mixed-use development combining manufacturing space for small and medium enterprises with residential lofts, educational facilities, and cultural venues. This contrasts with our timeline, where many such structures were demolished.

The city's numerous former jute mills undergo similar transformations throughout the 1990s and 2000s, creating distinctive mixed-use districts that preserve industrial architectural heritage while accommodating contemporary economic functions. This approach creates a distinctive urban identity that differs from the more conventional redevelopment patterns seen in our timeline.

Educational and Social Outcomes

The alternative development path produces significantly different educational and social outcomes by the 2020s compared to our timeline's Dundee.

Educational Ecosystem Evolution

The early specialization of Dundee's educational institutions creates a distinctive educational ecosystem that evolves over decades. By 2010, the former Dundee Institute of Technology (Abertay University in our timeline) has become the Dundee University of Technology, with over 12,000 students specializing in applied technology fields. Its industrial automation and digital manufacturing programs are rated among the top five globally.

The University of Dundee, meanwhile, develops a different profile than in our timeline. Rather than its strengths in life sciences and medicine, the university becomes known for its integration of engineering, design, and sustainability. Its Institute for Manufacturing Futures evolves into the Centre for Sustainable Production by 2008, focusing on circular economy principles applied to industrial processes.

Together, these institutions produce a talent pipeline specifically aligned with the city's economic specializations, resulting in higher graduate retention rates than in our timeline. By 2020, approximately 47% of graduates from Dundee's universities remain in the city after graduation, compared to around 25% in our timeline.

Social Indicators and Inequality

Perhaps the most significant divergence from our timeline appears in social indicators by the 2020s. The distributed economic development model, with its emphasis on manufacturing innovation and widespread neighborhood regeneration, produces different patterns of employment and income distribution.

Key differences by 2023 include:

Significantly lower income inequality (Gini coefficient of 0.32 compared to 0.39 in our timeline)
Unemployment rates consistently 2-3 percentage points below Scotland's average (rather than above average as in our timeline)
Drug-related death rates approximately 40% lower than in our timeline
Child poverty rates of 18% compared to nearly 30% in our timeline's Dundee

These differences stem from the preservation of diverse employment pathways, including skilled manufacturing jobs accessible to those without university degrees, alongside the more equitable urban development model.

Global Positioning and Recognition

By the 2020s, this alternate Dundee occupies a different position in national and global recognition than the city in our timeline.

While our timeline's Dundee gained attention primarily for cultural regeneration exemplified by the V&A Dundee and its creative industries, this alternate Dundee becomes known instead as a model for post-industrial manufacturing renewal. The city features prominently in international economic case studies of industrial adaptation, with organizations like the OECD highlighting the "Dundee Model" of integrating traditional industrial expertise with digital technologies.

Rather than tourism and cultural industries driving external perceptions, this Dundee attracts attention for its leadership in manufacturing innovation and sustainable industrial practices. By 2020, the city hosts an annual "Future of Manufacturing" conference attracting over 4,000 international delegates, contrasting with the design and creative industry events that characterize our timeline's Dundee.

This different development path means that while this alternate Dundee might lack the iconic architectural landmarks and cultural cachet of our timeline's city, it enjoys greater economic resilience, lower inequality, and stronger industrial capabilities as it enters the mid-2020s.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Fiona MacKenzie, Professor of Urban Economic Geography at the University of Edinburgh, offers this perspective: "What's fascinating about contemplating alternative development paths for Dundee is how it highlights the role of early strategic choices in shaping decades of subsequent urban evolution. The actual Dundee we know pursued cultural regeneration and creative industries—a model influenced heavily by cities like Bilbao and Glasgow—but this emphasis came with tradeoffs. An alternate Dundee that doubled down on manufacturing innovation rather than cultural regeneration would likely have developed greater economic resilience and potentially more equitable outcomes. The counterfactual scenario reminds us that deindustrialization's impacts weren't inevitable; they were shaped by policy choices that prioritized certain development models over others."

Michael Chen, Director of the Center for Industrial Transformation at MIT, provides this assessment: "The Dundee counterfactual is particularly instructive when considering how mid-sized post-industrial cities can respond to economic disruption. While many cities faced with manufacturing decline in the 1980s and 1990s pursued service-oriented economies or creative class strategies, an alternate path emphasizing advanced manufacturing would have been viable with the right institutional supports. The hypothetical Dundee that leveraged its educational institutions toward digital manufacturing rather than creative technologies represents a road not taken for many Western cities. Today, as we see renewed interest in industrial policy and reshoring of manufacturing, this alternate timeline for Dundee feels increasingly relevant—it's essentially the strategy that cities from Sheffield to Pittsburgh are belatedly attempting to implement now."

Professor Catriona Murray, Historian of Modern Scotland at the University of Glasgow, contextualizes the scenario: "We should remember that Dundee's actual development path wasn't merely a matter of local choice—it reflected broader political and economic currents. The emphasis on cultural regeneration, tourism, and creative industries aligned with national policies during the 1990s and 2000s that often privileged consumption over production. An alternative Dundee that maintained manufacturing as its core identity would have required swimming against powerful currents of deindustrialization that affected the entire UK. That said, cities like Dundee did have agency within these constraints. The counterfactual helps us question whether the cultural regeneration model, while visually impressive and effective at changing perceptions, actually addressed the fundamental economic and social challenges left by industrial decline."