What If Dunedin Preserved More of Its Historical Heritage?

The Actual History

Dunedin, located on New Zealand's South Island, has a distinctive history as the country's "First City." Founded in 1848 by Scottish Free Church settlers, the city's name derives from "Dùn Èideann," the Scottish Gaelic name for Edinburgh. Following the discovery of gold in Central Otago in 1861, Dunedin experienced a significant gold rush that transformed it into New Zealand's largest and wealthiest city by the 1870s. During this prosperous era, the city constructed an impressive collection of Victorian and Edwardian architecture, establishing a distinctive heritage landscape unlike anything else in the southern hemisphere.

The wealth accumulated during the gold rush funded the construction of grand public buildings, churches, commercial structures, and private residences. Notable examples included the Dunedin Railway Station (1906), First Church (1873), the University of Otago (founded 1869, with many historic buildings constructed in the following decades), and numerous commercial buildings in the central business district. This architectural boom coincided with advancements in construction techniques and the height of Victorian ornamental style, resulting in an unusually cohesive and elaborate cityscape.

However, Dunedin's economic fortunes changed dramatically in the 20th century. As the gold reserves depleted, economic power shifted northward to Auckland and Wellington. By the mid-20th century, Dunedin had entered a period of economic stagnation and population decline. This economic downturn paradoxically saved many historic buildings from immediate demolition, as there was less development pressure than in more prosperous New Zealand cities.

The 1960s through 1980s saw significant losses to Dunedin's heritage landscape despite the relative lack of development pressure. Urban renewal projects, modernization efforts, and changing architectural tastes led to the demolition of many Victorian-era buildings. The destruction of the Stock Exchange building, Queen's Gardens buildings, and many commercial structures along Princes Street and George Street significantly altered the city's character. The historic warehouse precinct became largely abandoned, with many buildings left to deteriorate.

This period also saw the controversial construction of the Dunedin Civic Centre and other modernist structures that clashed with the existing Victorian streetscape. The city's transportation infrastructure was modified to accommodate increasing automobile traffic, often at the expense of pedestrian-friendly heritage streetscapes.

By the 1980s, heritage preservation movements began to gain momentum in New Zealand, but by then, Dunedin had already lost a substantial portion of its historic fabric. The Heritage New Zealand Pouhere Taonga Act (initially passed as the Historic Places Act in 1954 and substantially strengthened in 1993) provided some protection for remaining structures, but implementation was inconsistent.

In recent decades, Dunedin has experienced a revival of interest in its heritage assets. The warehouse precinct has undergone partial revitalization, with several buildings restored and repurposed. The city's heritage buildings have become increasingly recognized as tourism assets and points of community pride. However, this recognition came too late for many significant structures that had already been lost to demolition or insensitive modification.

Today, while Dunedin still possesses more intact Victorian architecture than most New Zealand cities, it represents only a fraction of what once existed. The city continues to face tensions between development pressures, economic constraints, and heritage preservation, with ongoing debates about the future of several at-risk historic structures.

The Point of Divergence

What if Dunedin had implemented robust heritage protection measures decades earlier than it did? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where Dunedin recognized the value of its architectural heritage during the crucial period of the 1960s and early 1970s, when many significant buildings were lost in our timeline.

The point of divergence could have occurred in several plausible ways:

First, it might have emerged through early academic recognition of Dunedin's architectural significance. In this scenario, architectural historians at the University of Otago might have conducted comprehensive studies of the city's Victorian and Edwardian buildings in the late 1950s, documenting their unique characteristics and international significance. These studies could have generated public awareness and appreciation for the city's architectural heritage before demolition became widespread.

Alternatively, the divergence might have stemmed from forward-thinking local government. Perhaps a Progressive mayor and city council elected in 1962 recognized the potential economic and cultural value of the city's heritage buildings. Inspired by heritage conservation movements emerging in Europe and parts of North America, they might have implemented New Zealand's first comprehensive heritage protection ordinance, decades before such regulations became common elsewhere in the country.

A third possibility involves early tourism potential recognition. In this scenario, Dunedin's business leaders and Chamber of Commerce might have identified heritage tourism as an economic development strategy as early as 1965, lobbying successfully for protective measures to preserve the city's unique selling proposition as "The Edinburgh of the South."

Finally, the divergence could have resulted from community activism. Perhaps a pivotal moment occurred when developers proposed demolishing a beloved landmark—such as the Railway Station or a significant church—galvanizing unprecedented public opposition that transformed into a sustainable heritage protection movement with substantial political influence.

Regardless of the specific trigger, in this alternate timeline, Dunedin implemented comprehensive heritage protection policies by 1965-1967, establishing building preservation standards, financial incentives for restoration, and legal mechanisms to prevent demolition or inappropriate modification of significant structures. Most importantly, these measures came into effect before the wave of urban renewal projects and modernization efforts that claimed many historic buildings in our timeline.

This early recognition of architectural heritage value represents our timeline's critical fork in the road—a fundamental shift in perspective that would alter not just Dunedin's physical landscape but its economic trajectory and cultural identity for decades to come.

Immediate Aftermath

Policy Framework Development (1965-1970)

The immediate consequences of Dunedin's heritage preservation awakening would have been most visible in policy development. Unlike our timeline, where New Zealand's heritage legislation remained relatively weak until the 1990s, alternate Dunedin would have pioneered comprehensive preservation frameworks at the local level:

Architectural Heritage Inventory: By 1966, the city would have completed its first comprehensive survey of significant buildings, documenting over 800 structures of architectural or historical importance.
Preservation Ordinances: The Dunedin City Council would have established New Zealand's first Heritage Precinct zones by 1967, implementing controls on demolition and exterior alterations within these designated areas.
Financial Incentives: Recognizing that regulation alone was insufficient, the city would have created tax rebates and grants for heritage building owners by 1968, establishing a restoration fund financed through a combination of local government allocation and private donations.
Technical Resources: A Heritage Advisory Service would have been established by 1969, providing owners of historic properties with access to specialized expertise on appropriate restoration techniques and materials.

This regulatory framework would have faced opposition from some property owners and developers who viewed it as an infringement on property rights. However, the presence of abandoned buildings in the warehouse district and relatively low development pressure would have minimized initial conflicts compared to faster-growing New Zealand cities.

Urban Planning Transformation (1967-1975)

The heritage preservation movement would have significantly influenced urban planning decisions during this period:

Transportation Planning: The proposed one-way street system for the central city would have been substantially modified to minimize impact on heritage streetscapes. Instead of widening streets at the expense of historic facades, planners would have developed a more pedestrian-oriented transit approach, maintaining the human scale of the original Victorian commercial districts.
Civic Center Development: Unlike our timeline, where modernist civic buildings replaced historic structures, the alternate Dunedin would have adapted existing heritage buildings for municipal uses. The Stock Exchange Building would have been preserved and incorporated into a more contextually sensitive civic complex.
Urban Renewal Redirection: Rather than demolishing "outdated" buildings in the name of progress, urban renewal funds would have been directed toward rehabilitation of historic structures. The warehouse precinct, instead of falling into decay, would have seen early adaptive reuse projects converting industrial buildings to commercial, residential, and cultural purposes.

Economic Adaptation (1970-1980)

Dunedin's economic landscape would have evolved differently in response to heritage preservation efforts:

Specialized Construction Industry: The demand for heritage-appropriate restoration work would have fostered the development of specialized construction firms and traditional building trades. By the mid-1970s, Dunedin would have become New Zealand's center for traditional masonry, woodworking, and other heritage building skills.
Tourism Development: While mainstream international tourism to New Zealand remained relatively limited in the 1970s, Dunedin would have positioned itself as a cultural destination earlier than in our timeline. Marketing materials from this period would have emphasized the city's Victorian character, creating a distinctive identity separate from New Zealand's predominant natural attractions.
University Integration: The University of Otago would have embraced its historic campus as a key asset, establishing New Zealand's first historic preservation program by 1974. This would have created synergy between academic research and practical application in the city's ongoing preservation efforts.
Retail Strategy: Rather than attempting to compete with suburban malls through modernization, Dunedin's central business district would have leveraged its historic character as a competitive advantage, developing distinctive shopping areas in preserved Victorian commercial buildings.

Political and Cultural Shifts (1965-1980)

The success of early preservation efforts would have reshaped local politics and cultural attitudes:

Political Realignment: Heritage preservation would have become a defining issue in local politics, with pro-heritage candidates generally prevailing in municipal elections throughout the 1970s.
Community Identity: Public pride in the city's distinctive character would have strengthened, with heritage buildings becoming central to local identity. Annual heritage celebrations would have been established by the mid-1970s, including architectural tours, historical reenactments, and Victorian-themed events.
National Influence: Dunedin's pioneering preservation efforts would have influenced national policy much earlier than in our timeline. By 1975, elements of Dunedin's local heritage policies would have been incorporated into a strengthened national Historic Places Trust and its regulations.
Media Recognition: By the late 1970s, Dunedin would have gained international recognition in architectural and travel publications as a remarkable surviving example of a Victorian colonial city, raising its profile well beyond what occurred in our timeline.

These immediate effects would have established the foundation for much more significant long-term impacts, setting Dunedin on a substantially different developmental trajectory than the one it followed in our actual history.

Long-term Impact

Urban Development and Cityscape (1980-2025)

The preservation of Dunedin's heritage buildings would have fundamentally altered the city's physical development over the decades:

Cohesive Historic Districts

By 2025, Dunedin would boast the southern hemisphere's most intact Victorian commercial center, with continuous historic streetscapes throughout the central business district. Unlike our timeline, where heritage buildings stand as isolated specimens amid modern structures, alternate Dunedin would feature complete historic precincts:

The Exchange District: This financial center would retain its complete collection of banking halls, insurance buildings, and commercial structures, creating a spectacular Victorian commercial landscape.
Warehouse Precinct: Rather than the partial revitalization seen in our timeline, this district would have undergone comprehensive adaptive reuse starting decades earlier, becoming a vibrant mixed-use neighborhood with creative industries, residential lofts, boutique hospitality, and cultural venues.
Port Connection: The historic connections between the city and port would have been maintained, with the warehouse district forming a logical connection to the harbor rather than being isolated by transportation infrastructure.

Architectural Innovation within Context

Rather than fostering architectural stagnation, the preservation framework would have encouraged creative contemporary design that responds thoughtfully to historic context:

Infill Architecture: Where new buildings were necessary, Dunedin would have developed a sophisticated approach to contextual design, with contemporary structures that complement rather than mimic their historic neighbors.
Building Adaptation: The city would have become renowned for innovative approaches to adapting historic buildings for modern uses, with exemplary projects showing how heritage structures can accommodate contemporary functions while preserving character-defining features.
Sustainable Heritage: By the 2000s, Dunedin would have pioneered methods for improving the energy efficiency of historic buildings without compromising their integrity, making heritage preservation and environmental sustainability complementary rather than competing values.

Economic Transformation (1980-2025)

Dunedin's economic trajectory would have diverged significantly from our timeline's relatively modest growth:

Heritage Tourism Development

Tourism would have evolved into a major economic sector much earlier and more robustly than in our timeline:

International Recognition: By the 1990s, Dunedin would have secured UNESCO World Heritage status for its Victorian commercial center and university precinct, placing it on global heritage tourism itineraries.
Visitor Infrastructure: The city would have developed sophisticated heritage interpretation centers, guided tour programs, and historically themed experiences, extending visitors' stays and increasing tourism revenue.
Film Industry Attraction: The intact historic streetscapes would have attracted period film and television productions, establishing Dunedin as the southern hemisphere's premier location for Victorian-era productions and creating a specialized sector of the local economy.

Knowledge Economy Clustering

The emphasis on quality of place would have strengthened Dunedin's ability to retain and attract knowledge workers:

University Growth: The University of Otago would have leveraged its historic campus as a recruiting advantage for both students and faculty, growing more substantially than in our timeline and expanding into adaptively reused historic buildings.
Creative Industries: The character-rich warehouse and commercial buildings would have attracted creative businesses, fostering clusters of design firms, publishing companies, gaming studios, and other knowledge-intensive enterprises drawn to distinctive work environments.
Remote Work Hub: By the 2010s, Dunedin would have positioned itself as a destination for remote workers and digital nomads seeking high quality of life in a unique historic setting, partially offsetting New Zealand's geographic isolation.

Specialized Construction and Conservation Economy

Dunedin's early focus on preservation would have developed into a specialized economic sector:

Conservation Center of Excellence: By 2000, the city would have established a national center for building conservation, combining research, training, and practical application.
Artisanal Construction Trades: Traditional building crafts would have been maintained and developed, creating high-value specialized employment in masonry, decorative plastering, heritage carpentry, and stained glass restoration.
Consulting Exports: Dunedin-based heritage architects and conservation specialists would have developed expertise exported throughout the Asia-Pacific region, creating a professional services export sector.

Social and Cultural Evolution (1980-2025)

The preservation of Dunedin's built heritage would have influenced its social and cultural development in profound ways:

Cultural Identity and Community Pride

The distinctive cityscape would have strengthened local identity and attachment to place:

Public Celebrations: Annual heritage festivals would have grown into major cultural events, celebrating not just architecture but the city's multilayered history, including its Māori, Scottish, Chinese, and other cultural influences.
Community Engagement: Preservation efforts would have fostered strong community involvement in city planning and development decisions, creating more participatory governance than seen in our timeline.
Reduced Outmigration: The distinctive character and quality of life would have better retained residents, particularly young adults who in our timeline often leave for larger centers. While still smaller than Auckland or Wellington, Dunedin's population would be notably larger than in our actual timeline.

Educational and Intellectual Life

The physical preservation of historic Dunedin would have enriched its intellectual environment:

Heritage Education: Local schools would have developed rich place-based curriculum components, connecting students to their community's architectural and social history.
Academic Specialization: The University of Otago would have developed world-leading programs in heritage conservation, historic preservation technology, and cultural heritage management.
Public Intellectualism: The city would have attracted historians, writers, and thinkers drawn to its sense of place, fostering a vibrant intellectual scene disproportionate to its size.

New Zealand and International Influence (1980-2025)

Dunedin's preservation success would have influenced national and international approaches to heritage:

National Heritage Policy

Dunedin's early adoption of preservation measures would have accelerated national heritage protection in New Zealand:

Legislative Influence: New Zealand's national heritage legislation would have been strengthened decades earlier than in our timeline, influenced by Dunedin's successful local policies.
National Model: Other New Zealand cities would have begun implementing similar preservation frameworks by the 1980s, resulting in greater retention of historic architecture throughout the country.
Bicultural Heritage Approach: Dunedin's heritage framework would have evolved to more fully incorporate Māori heritage values and perspectives, pioneering integrative approaches to European and Indigenous heritage preservation.

International Recognition and Influence

By 2025, Dunedin would have achieved a level of international recognition for heritage conservation far beyond what exists in our timeline:

Southern Hemisphere Reference Point: The city would have become the primary case study for successful heritage-based revitalization in a southern hemisphere context, frequently referenced in international preservation literature.
Architectural Tourism Circuit: Dunedin would feature prominently in global architectural tourism itineraries alongside cities like Prague, Vienna, and Edinburgh, recognized for its exceptional Victorian and Edwardian architecture.
Economic Case Study: The city would be widely cited in economic development literature as a successful example of leveraging heritage assets for sustainable economic growth outside major metropolitan centers.

Contemporary Challenges (2010-2025)

Even in this alternate timeline, Dunedin would face unique challenges related to its preservation success:

Affordability Pressures: The city's increased desirability would create housing affordability challenges, requiring innovative policies to maintain socioeconomic diversity.
Climate Adaptation: Rising sea levels would threaten portions of the historic harbor district, requiring sophisticated approaches to protecting heritage resources from environmental threats.
Balancing Conservation and Development: Despite stronger heritage values, tensions would still exist between preservation and growth, requiring ongoing negotiation between conservation and development interests.

By 2025 in this alternate timeline, Dunedin would stand as one of the world's most successful examples of heritage-led urban revitalization, with a distinctive character, vibrant economy, and cultural richness that would have significantly diverged from our actual timeline's more modest outcomes.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Julia Fitzgerald, Professor of Urban Planning and Heritage Conservation at the University of Melbourne, offers this perspective: "What makes the Dunedin alternate timeline particularly fascinating is that it represents a plausible path that was genuinely available but not taken. The city possessed all the necessary ingredients for heritage-led revitalization—a cohesive historic fabric, relatively limited development pressure, and institutional capacity through the university. What it lacked in our actual timeline was early recognition of heritage value and political will. Had Dunedin implemented strong preservation measures in the 1960s rather than the 1990s, it likely would have developed into a heritage destination comparable to Québec City or York, England. The economic and cultural dividends would have been substantial, potentially altering not just Dunedin's trajectory but New Zealand's entire approach to urban heritage."

Matthew Hāpai, Director of the Oceania Heritage Foundation and specialist in Indigenous heritage integration, provides a more nuanced view: "An earlier heritage preservation movement in Dunedin would have undoubtedly saved many significant colonial-era buildings, but we must consider how this alternate timeline would have addressed Māori heritage. The early preservation movements of the 1960s internationally were primarily concerned with monumental European-derived architecture and often overlooked Indigenous cultural landscapes. The real challenge in this alternate Dunedin would have been evolving from a purely architectural preservation framework to a more holistic one that acknowledged Ōtepoti's significance to Ngāi Tahu and other Māori. I suspect this evolution would have occurred earlier than in our timeline, potentially pioneering bicultural heritage approaches that balanced colonial architectural preservation with recognition of the continuing significance of place to tangata whenua."

Eleanor Wang, PhD, Economic Historian specializing in heritage economics at the National University of Singapore, analyzes the financial implications: "The Dunedin counterfactual offers a compelling case study in the long-term economics of heritage preservation. Cities that implemented strong preservation measures before large-scale demolition occurred—places like Charleston, Savannah, or certain European cities—have generally seen significant economic returns on that preservation through tourism, knowledge-worker attraction, and place-based premium pricing. What makes Dunedin particularly interesting is that its isolation and relatively modest size would have tested whether these economic benefits could accrue to smaller, peripheral cities. Based on comparable cases, I believe preserved Dunedin would have developed a more resilient and distinctive economy than in our timeline, though still facing the geographic challenges of South Island New Zealand. The early adoption of preservation would have positioned it as the heritage center for Oceania, creating specialized economic niches that would have partially offset its geographic disadvantages."