What If Flanders and Wallonia Separated in Belgium?

The Actual History

Belgium emerged as an independent nation in 1830 following the Belgian Revolution, which separated the southern provinces of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands. The new country united two distinct cultural and linguistic communities: Dutch-speaking Flemings in the north (Flanders) and French-speaking Walloons in the south (Wallonia). This linguistic division has been a defining feature of Belgian politics and society throughout its history.

In the 19th and early 20th centuries, French was Belgium's dominant language in government, education, and among the elite, despite Flemish speakers constituting the majority of the population. Flemish activists gradually fought for language rights and cultural recognition, winning significant victories like the 1898 Equality Law that recognized Dutch as an official language alongside French. The establishment of the linguistic border in 1962-63 formally divided the country into monolingual regions (with Brussels as a bilingual exception), and subsequent constitutional reforms transformed Belgium into a federal state.

Between 1970 and 2011, Belgium underwent six state reforms, progressively devolving powers from the central government to regional authorities. The first reform (1970) established three cultural communities (Flemish, French, and German), while the second (1980) created the Flemish and Walloon Regions with their own parliaments and governments. The Brussels-Capital Region followed in 1989. Over subsequent reforms, competencies in education, culture, environment, agriculture, foreign trade, and aspects of taxation were transferred to these regional governments.

Despite these accommodations, separatist sentiment—particularly in Flanders—has ebbed and flowed. The center-right, nationalist New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) emerged as Belgium's largest party in 2010, advocating for Flemish autonomy within a confederal framework. Following the 2010 elections, Belgium infamously experienced a 541-day period without a federal government, setting a world record and highlighting the deep divisions in Belgian politics.

More recently, though separatist sentiment remains significant, particularly with the growth of the more radical right-wing Vlaams Belang party, most observers consider a formal split unlikely. Economic interdependence, the complex status of Brussels (geographically within Flanders but predominantly French-speaking), and the European Union's stabilizing influence have acted as counterweights to separatist momentum. Belgium continues to function as a federal state, with its complex institutional arrangements reflecting historical compromises between its linguistic communities.

Meanwhile, Belgium has been a founding member of both NATO and the European Union, hosting the headquarters of both organizations in Brussels. The country became a constitutional monarchy with a parliamentary system, developing one of Western Europe's most extensive welfare states. Despite its internal divisions, Belgium ranks highly in quality of life metrics and continues to play an important role in European integration, demonstrating how complex power-sharing arrangements can accommodate deep cultural and linguistic differences within a single nation-state.

The Point of Divergence

What if Belgium had actually split along linguistic lines into separate Flemish and Walloon states? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where the 2010-2011 Belgian political crisis—during which the country went 541 days without a government—ended not with compromise but with dissolution.

The most plausible point of divergence occurs in late 2011, when the protracted negotiations to form a government following the June 2010 elections reached their breaking point. In our timeline, Elio Di Rupo eventually formed a coalition government in December 2011, but several factors could have pushed events in a different direction:

One possibility is that the N-VA, led by Bart De Wever, could have taken a harder line in negotiations, making uncompromising demands for Flemish autonomy that French-speaking parties found impossible to accept. Simultaneously, Walloon political leaders might have calculated that their economic interests would be better served by pursuing their own path rather than continuing the difficult power-sharing arrangements.

Alternatively, an external economic shock could have exacerbated tensions. The European sovereign debt crisis was at its height during this period. If Belgium's credit rating had been downgraded more severely due to the political paralysis, financial markets might have forced a breaking point that political negotiations could not resolve.

A third possibility involves the streets rather than the negotiating rooms. Mass protests in either Flanders or Wallonia demanding separation could have created momentum that politicians found impossible to resist. In this scenario, a series of increasingly large demonstrations throughout 2011 might have shifted the political calculus, making separation seem like the path of least resistance.

Whatever the specific trigger, in this alternate timeline, by early 2012, political leaders from both linguistic communities announced that they had reached an agreement to dissolve the Belgian state. The dissolution would follow a carefully negotiated framework addressing the division of national assets and debts, the status of Brussels, and the timeline for international recognition of the two new states. The European Union, though reluctant to see a member state dissolve, would have been involved in mediating this process to ensure stability in the heart of Europe.

This negotiated separation represents the most orderly version of the divergence. More chaotic scenarios are conceivable—including unilateral declarations of independence or constitutional crises—but a negotiated dissolution mediated by European institutions represents the most plausible path to Belgian separation.

Immediate Aftermath

The Partition Agreement

In the months following the announcement of Belgium's dissolution, intensive negotiations established the framework for separation. The "Brussels Accord," signed in September 2012, outlined the key elements of the partition:

Creation of Two Primary Successor States: The Flemish Republic and the Walloon Republic would be established as the principal successor states to Belgium.
Special Status for Brussels: Given its position as both the Belgian and EU capital, Brussels would become an autonomous city-state with its own government, officially trilingual (French, Dutch, and English), and would host EU institutions as before.
The German-Speaking Community: The small German-speaking region in eastern Belgium would receive the option to join Wallonia, become autonomous, or seek integration with Germany or Luxembourg. In this timeline, they chose autonomous status with special ties to Wallonia.
Division of National Assets and Debts: Belgium's national debt (nearly 100% of GDP at the time) would be divided proportionally based on population, with some adjustments recognizing the different economic capacities of the regions.
Transition Period: A two-year transition would allow for the orderly transfer of administrative functions and the establishment of new institutions.

Economic Turbulence

The economic consequences of the split were immediately felt across both new states and throughout Europe:

Market Reaction: Financial markets initially reacted negatively, with borrowing costs spiking for both Flanders and Wallonia. The uncertainty triggered a mini-crisis in the Eurozone, already weakened by the sovereign debt troubles in Greece, Spain, and Italy.
Corporate Relocations: Major Belgian companies faced difficult decisions about their headquarters. Financial giants like KBC restructured into separate Flemish and Walloon entities, while others like AB InBev relocated their European operations to Luxembourg or the Netherlands to avoid taking sides.
Brussels Real Estate Boom: Paradoxically, Brussels experienced an economic boost as international organizations, lobbying firms, and diplomatic missions expanded their presence, driving up real estate prices in the autonomous city-state.
Divergent Economic Trajectories: Flanders, with its stronger economy (GDP per capita approximately 20% higher than Wallonia in 2012), initially weathered the transition better. The Flemish government implemented business-friendly policies to attract investment, positioning itself as a "Northern European tiger economy." Wallonia faced greater challenges but used the opportunity to accelerate economic restructuring away from its post-industrial malaise, focusing on biotechnology and aerospace sectors around Liège and Charleroi.

Political Reconfiguration

The dissolution necessitated entirely new political structures in both regions:

Flemish Political Landscape: In Flanders, the N-VA dominated the first post-separation elections but faced the challenge of transitioning from a separatist party to a governing one. A coalition government led by Bart De Wever implemented a center-right agenda focusing on economic competitiveness and Flemish cultural identity.
Walloon Political Realignment: In Wallonia, the Socialist Party maintained its traditional strength but faced a new political reality without the Flemish counterweight. The first Walloon government, led by a Socialist-Liberal coalition, emphasized protecting social welfare systems while embarking on economic modernization.
Brussels as a European Washington DC: The Brussels city-state developed a unique political system with guaranteed representation for Dutch and French speakers, plus a new category of "European residents" who gained voting rights. The city's politics became increasingly detached from those of its neighbors, focusing on its role as European capital.

European Union Response

The EU initially struggled to manage the unprecedented situation of a member state dividing into multiple entities:

Accession Process: Both Flanders and Wallonia had to apply for EU membership, though on an expedited track. The European Commission recommended a simplified procedure recognizing that both territories already implemented EU law.
Representation Issues: Contentious negotiations determined how the former Belgian voting rights and parliamentary seats would be allocated between the successor states. Brussels received special representation in the European Parliament.
EU Reform Impetus: The Belgian split catalyzed broader discussions about the future of European integration, with federalists arguing that a "Europe of Regions" could better accommodate Europe's cultural diversity than traditional nation-states.

Social and Cultural Impact

The societal effects of separation were complex and sometimes surprising:

Cultural Renaissance: Both regions experienced cultural resurgences as they redefined their identities. Flemish literature, cinema, and arts enjoyed international recognition, while Wallonia reconnected with its distinct cultural heritage.
Migration Patterns: Some civil servants and professionals relocated based on linguistic affiliation, creating mini population movements, particularly around the Brussels periphery where language rights had been contentious.
Identity Evolution: Polls showed that many citizens maintained a sense of "Belgian" identity alongside their Flemish or Walloon citizenship. Dual identity became particularly common in Brussels, where many residents began describing themselves as "European Brusselers" rather than identifying with either successor state.

Long-term Impact

Economic Divergence and Convergence (2015-2025)

The Flemish Economic Model

Flanders used its independence to pursue an economic strategy modeled after the Netherlands and Scandinavian countries:

Investment Hub: With corporate tax rates slightly below those of the Netherlands and a highly educated workforce, Flanders successfully attracted multinational investments, particularly in pharmaceutical research, logistics, and digital technologies.
Port of Antwerp Expansion: Massive investments in the Port of Antwerp-Bruges made it an even more vital gateway to Europe, with throughput increasing 40% between 2015 and 2025.
Renewable Energy Leadership: Leveraging its North Sea coastline, Flanders developed one of Europe's most extensive offshore wind networks, achieving 60% renewable electricity generation by 2025 and exporting expertise globally.
Labor Market Reforms: Controversial reforms to unemployment benefits and retirement systems initially sparked protests but ultimately contributed to an employment rate exceeding 80% by 2025.

Wallonia's Transformation

Contrary to many predictions, Wallonia's economy showed remarkable resilience and eventual growth:

"Phoenix Program": With EU structural funds and a national economic mobilization program, Wallonia invested heavily in retraining former industrial workers for technology and service sectors.
University-Industry Partnerships: The "Walloon Triangle" between Liège, Namur, and Charleroi developed into a significant biotech and materials science hub, with university spin-offs creating 35,000 new jobs by 2023.
Tourism Boom: Investment in cultural heritage and outdoor recreation in the Ardennes led to a 75% increase in tourism revenues between 2015 and 2025.
Franco-Walloon Integration: Economic ties with northern France intensified, creating a cross-border economic zone that helped revitalize former industrial areas on both sides of the border.

Brussels as a Global City

Brussels capitalized on its unique status to become an even more important global hub:

Beyond the EU: While remaining the de facto capital of the European Union, Brussels diversified its international organizations, becoming a major center for climate diplomacy and international legal institutions.
Financial Services Growth: Taking advantage of Brexit, Brussels positioned itself as a continental alternative to London for certain financial services, particularly those related to EU regulatory compliance.
Cultural Cosmopolitanism: The percentage of non-Belgian EU citizens living in Brussels rose from 10.4% in 2012 to nearly 30% by 2025, transforming the city's character and reinforcing its multicultural identity.

Political Evolution (2015-2025)

Flanders: From Nationalism to Pragmatism

Flemish politics underwent significant transformations after independence:

Nationalist Recalibration: With separation achieved, the N-VA gradually repositioned itself as a mainstream conservative party focused on economic management rather than cultural nationalism. By the 2022 elections, its rhetoric had moderated considerably.
Green Surge: The Flemish Green party made significant gains in the 2018 and 2022 elections, forming part of a coalition government with a strong environmental agenda.
European Federalism: Somewhat ironically, Flanders became a strong advocate for deeper European integration in certain areas, particularly environmental regulation and digital policy.

Wallonia: Social Democracy Reimagined

Wallonia's political landscape evolved from traditional socialism to a more dynamic model:

"Third Way" Socialism: The dominance of the Socialist Party gave way to a more diverse left, with new movements advocating "innovation socialism" that combined strong social protections with entrepreneurship incentives.
Participatory Governance: Wallonia implemented extensive citizen consultation mechanisms, including randomly selected citizen assemblies that contributed to legislative development.
Regional Identities: Within Wallonia, distinct identities for regions like Liège and Hainaut gained prominence, leading to further decentralization of certain powers.

Brussels: Laboratory of Post-National Politics

Brussels developed Europe's most unique political system:

Transnational Democracy: The Brussels Parliament evolved to include representatives elected by EU citizens residing in the city, creating a truly transnational democratic experiment.
Quadrilingual Governance: While officially trilingual (French, Dutch, and English), the increasing importance of the German-speaking community led to de facto quadrilingual administration by 2025.
Neighborhood Autonomy: The 19 municipalities of Brussels gained enhanced powers, creating a nested system of governance that proved surprisingly effective at addressing local concerns while maintaining metropolitan coherence.

Geopolitical Implications (2015-2025)

European Union Transformation

Belgium's dissolution had lasting impacts on EU structure and function:

Reform Catalyst: The complex process of managing the Belgian split led to broader EU treaty reforms in 2017-2018, addressing succession issues and regional representation more clearly.
Strengthened Regionalism: The Committee of the Regions gained enhanced powers, and several other EU member states with strong regional identities (like Spain and Italy) devolved additional powers to their regions.
Security Integration: The need to maintain security cooperation after separation accelerated EU defense integration, with both Flemish and Walloon armed forces participating in new European defense initiatives.

NATO and International Relations

The dissolution also affected international security arrangements:

NATO Headquarters Question: After intense debate, NATO headquarters remained in Brussels, but with a new status agreement recognizing the city-state's autonomy.
Diplomatic Realignment: Flanders developed particularly close relations with the Netherlands and Nordic countries, while Wallonia strengthened its ties with France and southern Europe.
International Organization Membership: Both successor states and Brussels maintained membership in key international organizations, though with reduced individual influence compared to unified Belgium.

Social and Cultural Developments (2015-2025)

Identity Evolution

The relationship between Flemish and Walloon identities developed in unexpected ways:

Post-Separation Cooperation: After an initial period of separation, cultural and educational exchanges between Flanders and Wallonia actually increased compared to pre-dissolution levels, with university joint programs becoming particularly popular.
Linguistic Practices: While each region maintained its linguistic identity, practical bilingualism became more valued in both job markets. By 2025, more Walloons were studying Dutch than during Belgian times, while English became the true lingua franca in professional settings.
Shared Heritage Management: Joint commissions managed shared cultural heritage, from the royal art collections to battlefield memorials, creating models for international cultural cooperation.

Celebrations and Commemorations

New national days and symbols emerged:

Independence Days: Flanders Day (July 11, commemorating the 1302 Battle of the Golden Spurs) and Wallonia Day (September 27) became major celebrations in their respective regions.
Belgian Legacy Events: A "Remember Belgium" day (July 21, the former Belgian national day) evolved from a nostalgic commemoration to a celebration of cross-cultural cooperation.
European Identity: Surveys showed that by 2025, young people in both Flanders and Wallonia identified more strongly as "European" than their counterparts in most other EU member states.

Brussels: Europe's Capital in 2025

By 2025, Brussels had cemented its unique position:

Institutional Hub: The city hosted not only EU institutions but an expanded range of international organizations, solidifying its status as the diplomatic capital of Europe.
Laboratory of Integration: Brussels schools pioneered multilingual education models that became templates for other European cities with diverse populations.
Cultural Crossroads: The Brussels cultural scene flourished with influences from both Flemish and Walloon traditions plus contributions from its growing international population, making it one of Europe's most dynamic creative centers.
Economic Success: With a GDP per capita exceeding both Flanders and Wallonia, Brussels demonstrated that its unusual status as an autonomous city-state could create economic advantages rather than complications.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Liesbet Hooghe, Professor of Political Science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, offers this perspective: "The peaceful dissolution of Belgium represents one of the most significant developments in European territorial politics since the end of the Cold War. What makes this case particularly instructive is how the separation occurred within existing European frameworks rather than against them. Unlike other separatist movements that positioned themselves against supranational integration, both Flemish and Walloon independence movements ultimately worked within the European context, showing that national self-determination and European integration aren't necessarily contradictory. The Brussels solution—creating an autonomous European capital territory—may prove to be the most innovative aspect of the entire process, potentially serving as a model for managing diversity in other contested urban spaces."

Professor Paul De Grauwe, economist at the London School of Economics, provides this economic analysis: "The economic predictions made during the separation process were largely incorrect—both the optimistic Flemish projections and the pessimistic Walloon concerns. The reality has been more nuanced. Flanders did indeed benefit from greater economic autonomy, but the costs of separation were higher than anticipated, particularly in terms of establishing new institutions and managing the division of assets. Wallonia's performance has been the real surprise, with its economic transformation accelerating after independence. This suggests that the psychological effect of self-government shouldn't be underestimated. That said, both entities remain highly integrated with each other's economies, and with the broader European market. One could argue they've simply replaced Belgian economic integration with European economic integration, with Brussels serving as the connective tissue between them."

Dr. Claire Thewissen, historian at the University of Liège, reflects on the cultural implications: "The most fascinating aspect of post-Belgium cultural dynamics has been the renaissance of cross-border identities. After separation, citizens of both new states had to consciously reconsider what elements of 'Belgianness' they wished to retain. This led to a more mature relationship with national identity than exists in many older nation-states. The flourishing of regional identities within Wallonia and Flanders—Liégeois, West Flemish, etc.—suggests that the move away from the Belgian state didn't simply replace one nationalism with another, but rather opened space for multiple, overlapping identities. Brussels, meanwhile, has become Europe's first truly post-national city, where traditional concepts of citizenship and belonging are being reimagined. Historians will look back at the Belgian dissolution not as the failure of a multinational state but as a laboratory for how identity can be reconfigured in the 21st century."