What If Game of Thrones Was Never Adapted for Television?

The Actual History

In 2006, David Benioff and D.B. Weiss, two relatively unknown writers at the time, approached author George R.R. Martin about adapting his fantasy novel series "A Song of Ice and Fire" for television. Initially skeptical about the feasibility of bringing his complex, sprawling narrative to the screen, Martin ultimately agreed after the pair correctly answered his test question: "Who is Jon Snow's mother?" By 2007, HBO had optioned the rights to the series, and development began on what would become "Game of Thrones."

The path to production wasn't smooth. The original pilot, filmed in 2009, was deemed nearly unwatchable by HBO executives and required substantial reshoots and recasting. Several roles were recast, including Catelyn Stark (from Jennifer Ehle to Michelle Fairley) and Daenerys Targaryen (from Tamzin Merchant to Emilia Clarke). Despite these early challenges, HBO greenlit the series, and the first season premiered on April 17, 2011.

Against the odds, "Game of Thrones" became a global phenomenon. The series started with modest ratings—the first season averaged about 2.5 million viewers per episode in the United States—but grew consistently with each season. By the final season in 2019, individual episodes were drawing over 10 million live viewers, with many more watching via streaming and in international markets. The show's season eight premiere attracted 17.9 million viewers across all HBO platforms on the first night alone.

The series fundamentally transformed television in multiple ways. It demonstrated that high-fantasy could work as prestige television, contradicting the long-held industry belief that the genre was too niche or expensive for the small screen. With its production budget eventually reaching $15 million per episode, "Game of Thrones" raised the bar for television production values, featuring battle sequences and special effects that rivaled major motion pictures. The show's willingness to kill off major characters (beginning with Ned Stark in season one) and its morally ambiguous storytelling helped redefine narrative expectations for television dramas.

"Game of Thrones" accumulated 59 Primetime Emmy Awards out of 161 nominations across its eight-season run, the most wins for any dramatic television series. It became a cornerstone of HBO's brand identity and business model, driving subscriptions and anchoring the network's transition into the streaming era with HBO Max (later Max).

For George R.R. Martin, the adaptation created both opportunities and challenges. The series dramatically expanded his readership; by 2016, the "A Song of Ice and Fire" books had sold more than 70 million copies worldwide. However, the show's success also increased pressure on Martin to complete the series, which remained unfinished. As of 2025, the sixth book, "The Winds of Winter," still hasn't been published, 14 years after the release of "A Dance with Dragons" in 2011.

The show's cultural impact extended far beyond television. It sparked countless memes, podcasts, and YouTube channels dedicated to analyzing and theorizing about the show. Phrases like "Winter is coming" and "You know nothing, Jon Snow" entered the cultural lexicon. Tourism increased significantly in filming locations such as Northern Ireland, Croatia, and Spain. Universities began offering courses analyzing the show's themes and political dynamics.

Though the series' final season proved divisive among fans and critics, with many feeling the conclusion was rushed and unsatisfying, its legacy as one of television's most influential and successful series remains secure. By 2022, HBO had begun expanding the franchise with spinoff series, beginning with "House of the Dragon," which premiered to strong ratings, demonstrating the enduring commercial value of Martin's fictional universe.

The Point of Divergence

What if "Game of Thrones" was never adapted for television? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where HBO executives decided not to move forward with the fantasy adaptation after the problematic pilot episode in 2009-2010.

There are several plausible ways this divergence might have occurred:

First, the actual pilot episode for "Game of Thrones" was notoriously troubled. HBO executives could have simply decided that the fundamental issues with the pilot—confusing storytelling, unclear character relationships, and uneven tone—indicated that the source material was unadaptable for television. In our timeline, HBO invested in extensive reshoots and recasting; in this alternate timeline, the network might have cut its losses after the first expensive failure.

Alternatively, the divergence could have centered on business strategy. In 2010, HBO was still primarily focused on critically acclaimed dramas like "The Sopranos," "The Wire," and "Deadwood," along with comedies like "Entourage." The network might have determined that a high-fantasy series with an enormous budget represented too significant a departure from their brand identity. Richard Plepler, who became HBO's CEO in 2013 and championed "Game of Thrones," might have lacked the institutional support to greenlight such an expensive gamble if more executives had opposed the project.

A third possibility involves creative differences with George R.R. Martin. The author had substantial input in the early seasons and was protective of his material. If negotiations with Martin had broken down over creative control or adaptation approach, HBO might have abandoned the project rather than proceed without the author's cooperation.

Finally, the divergence might have been driven by competing priorities at HBO. In this alternate timeline, perhaps HBO committed more resources to other projects in development around the same time. Shows like "Boardwalk Empire" (which premiered in 2010) might have received even larger budgets, while HBO might have optioned different properties that executives believed had more mainstream appeal than a complex fantasy series with dragons, ice zombies, and a cast of hundreds.

Regardless of the specific mechanism, in this alternate timeline, HBO formally passed on "Game of Thrones" in early 2010 after viewing the original pilot. The rights to adapt "A Song of Ice and Fire" remained available, but no other network or streaming service immediately stepped forward to take on the challenging and expensive project.

Immediate Aftermath

Impact on HBO's Programming Strategy (2010-2013)

Without "Game of Thrones" in its lineup, HBO would have pursued a different programming strategy in the early 2010s. The network still had successful shows like "Boardwalk Empire" (2010-2014) and "True Blood" (2008-2014), but lacked what would become its flagship series.

In this alternate timeline, HBO likely would have doubled down on period dramas following the "Boardwalk Empire" model. Without the massive budget commitments required for "Game of Thrones," the network might have developed additional historical dramas or expanded existing properties. "Boardwalk Empire" might have received additional seasons beyond its five-season run, while other period pieces in HBO's development pipeline could have moved forward instead of being shelved.

The network would have continued its strategy of attracting prestigious directors and actors to television. In our timeline, Martin Scorsese directed the "Boardwalk Empire" pilot; in this alternate timeline, HBO likely would have pursued similar high-profile film directors for television projects. However, without the "Game of Thrones" halo effect, these attempts might have yielded more limited success.

By 2013, HBO would have recognized its need for a new flagship drama as "Boardwalk Empire" and "True Blood" approached their conclusions. The network might have accelerated development on shows like "True Detective," which premiered in January 2014 in our timeline. Without "Game of Thrones," "True Detective" might have received an even larger marketing push and budget, positioning it as HBO's primary prestige drama.

George R.R. Martin's Writing Career (2010-2015)

Without the television adaptation, George R.R. Martin's career would have followed a markedly different trajectory. One significant change would have been his writing pace and priorities.

In our timeline, Martin served as a consultant for "Game of Thrones," writing one episode per season for the first four seasons and providing input on scripts and casting. These television commitments, coupled with increased public appearances at conventions and promotional events, consumed substantial time that might otherwise have been dedicated to writing.

In this alternate timeline, Martin likely would have completed "The Winds of Winter" much sooner, possibly releasing it around 2013-2014 instead of the still-pending publication date in our timeline. Without the pressure of the show potentially overtaking his books (as it did from season six onward), Martin might have maintained a more measured writing pace, focusing on quality over speed.

However, without the television adaptation, the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series would have remained popular primarily within the fantasy literature community rather than becoming a mainstream cultural phenomenon. Book sales would have continued at a respectable but not extraordinary rate, perhaps reaching 15-20 million copies worldwide by 2015 instead of the 70+ million achieved with the show's boost.

Martin might have expanded his involvement with other projects as well. His work as editor of the "Wild Cards" series might have received more of his attention, and his development deal with HBO might have focused on adapting other works rather than "A Song of Ice and Fire" spinoffs.

The Fantasy Television Landscape (2011-2015)

Without "Game of Thrones" demonstrating the commercial viability of high-fantasy television, the genre would have evolved differently in the early 2010s. The success of Peter Jackson's "The Lord of the Rings" trilogy had already proven fantasy could work in film, but television executives remained skeptical about sustaining fantasy narratives across multiple seasons.

In this alternate timeline, fantasy television would have developed more gradually. Starz's "Camelot" (2011) and "Da Vinci's Demons" (2013-2015) still would have been produced, but without "Game of Thrones" raising the bar for production values and adult-oriented content, these shows might have set the standard for fantasy television—a standard significantly lower than what we saw in our timeline.

Amazon might not have invested so heavily in acquiring the rights to "The Lord of the Rings" for television, as the $250 million deal in our timeline was largely motivated by the desire to find "the next Game of Thrones." Similarly, Netflix might have directed its resources toward other genres rather than fantasy series like "The Witcher."

The broader television landscape would have continued its transition toward serialized storytelling and prestige drama, but without the specific influence of "Game of Thrones." Shows like "Breaking Bad," "Mad Men," and "The Walking Dead" would still have pushed television toward more complex narratives and morally ambiguous protagonists, but the particular blend of political intrigue, historic inspiration, and fantasy elements that characterized "Game of Thrones" would have remained largely unexplored territory.

Early Streaming Services Development (2013-2015)

The emergence of streaming services as producers of original content began around 2013, with Netflix releasing "House of Cards" and "Orange Is the New Black." In our timeline, these services looked to "Game of Thrones" as a model of must-see television that drove subscriptions.

In this alternate timeline, without "Game of Thrones" demonstrating the subscription-driving power of a cultural phenomenon show, streaming services might have pursued different content strategies. Instead of seeking their own big-budget fantasy epics, they might have focused more on mid-budget dramas and comedies that could attract critical acclaim without requiring massive production investments.

Netflix, Amazon, and Hulu would still have emerged as major players in original content, but their programming priorities might have skewed more toward the "House of Cards" model of prestige drama or the "Orange Is the New Black" model of diverse ensemble storytelling, rather than high-concept genre fare.

Long-term Impact

The Evolution of Television Production Values (2015-2025)

Without "Game of Thrones" redefining expectations for television production values, the medium's visual evolution would have followed a different trajectory. In our timeline, "Game of Thrones" regularly produced episodes with feature film-quality visual effects, massive battle sequences, and elaborate sets and costumes, eventually reaching budgets of $15 million per episode.

In this alternate timeline, television budgets would have increased more incrementally. While shows like "The Crown" on Netflix still would have pushed production value boundaries, the ceiling would have been lower. By 2025, premium television budgets might have topped out around $7-8 million per episode for the most expensive productions, rather than the $20+ million per episode seen for shows like "House of the Dragon" and Amazon's "The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power" in our timeline.

This more modest growth in production values would have affected the industry in several ways:

Visual Effects Industry: The television visual effects industry would have expanded more slowly, with fewer television projects requiring feature film-quality CGI. Major VFX houses might have remained primarily focused on film rather than television work.
Location Filming: The explosion of international location shooting partially driven by "Game of Thrones" would have been less pronounced. The economic impact on filming locations like Northern Ireland (which saw tourism increase by 300% in areas with "Game of Thrones" connections) would never have materialized.
Crew Development: The training ground that "Game of Thrones" provided for hundreds of crew members in specialized fantasy production would not have existed, potentially resulting in a smaller pool of experienced personnel for other fantasy projects.

Fantasy in Popular Culture (2015-2025)

Without "Game of Thrones" mainstreaming adult-oriented fantasy, the genre would have remained more niche in popular culture. Fantasy literature would have continued its steady popularity, but adaptations would have faced greater skepticism from studios and networks.

Some specific genre developments in this alternate timeline would include:

Adult Fantasy Perception: The perception that fantasy is primarily for younger audiences would have persisted longer. The graphic violence, complex political themes, and explicit content that "Game of Thrones" normalized within fantasy would have remained exceptional rather than expected.
Fantasy Adaptations: Major fantasy literature properties would have faced greater hurdles to adaptation. Works like "The Wheel of Time" (Amazon) and "Shadow and Bone" (Netflix) might never have been greenlighted without "Game of Thrones" proving the commercial viability of the genre. Those that did move forward would likely have received smaller budgets and less marketing support.
Film vs. Television Balance: Fantasy might have remained primarily a film genre rather than successfully transitioning to television. Studios would have continued to prefer condensing fantasy narratives into feature films rather than exploring them through multi-season television arcs.
Grimdark Fantasy: The "grimdark" subgenre of fantasy, characterized by moral ambiguity and realistic consequences, might have remained primarily literary rather than influencing visual media. Authors like Joe Abercrombie and Mark Lawrence would have maintained their literary followings but might not have seen interest in adapting their works for the screen.

George R.R. Martin's Legacy and "A Song of Ice and Fire" (2015-2025)

In this alternate timeline, George R.R. Martin's career and the fate of his magnum opus would have developed very differently:

Book Completion: Without television commitments and with less public pressure, Martin likely would have completed "The Winds of Winter" by 2014-2015 and potentially finished "A Dream of Spring" (the planned final volume) by 2020-2022, concluding the series as originally envisioned.
Critical Reception: The completed series would have been evaluated primarily on its literary merits rather than in comparison to a television adaptation. Critical reception would likely have remained strong, with the series maintaining its status as a landmark work within fantasy literature.
Cultural Impact: While still significant within fantasy circles, the cultural impact of "A Song of Ice and Fire" would have been substantially smaller. Characters like Tyrion Lannister, Daenerys Targaryen, and Jon Snow would not have become household names, and phrases like "Winter is coming" would not have entered the broader cultural lexicon.
Martin's Other Works: With "A Song of Ice and Fire" completed earlier, Martin might have returned to other writing projects. His novella series "Tales of Dunk and Egg" might have received more installments, and he might have developed entirely new fictional worlds rather than focusing on spinoffs and companion works for his most famous creation.

The Streaming Wars and Business of Television (2018-2025)

The development of the streaming industry would have proceeded quite differently without the "Game of Thrones" model influencing content strategy:

Tentpole Strategy: The strategy of building streaming services around expensive "tentpole" shows designed to drive subscriptions might have emerged more gradually. Without "Game of Thrones" demonstrating how a single must-see show could drive HBO subscriptions, services might have focused more on library depth rather than individual high-budget productions.
IP Acquisition: The frenzied acquisition of intellectual property rights that characterized the late 2010s would have been less pronounced. Amazon might not have spent $250 million just for the rights to "The Lord of the Rings" (before production costs), and similar high-dollar IP acquisitions might have been viewed as too risky.
HBO's Business Model: HBO's transition to streaming would have faced greater challenges. In our timeline, "Game of Thrones" helped bridge the network's identity from the cable era to the streaming era. Without this flagship show, HBO might have struggled more with this transition, potentially losing market position to Netflix and other competitors earlier.
Franchise Expansion: The model of developing multiple spinoffs from successful properties (as HBO has done with the "Game of Thrones" universe) might not have become as prevalent. Media companies might have remained more focused on developing new properties rather than expanding existing fictional universes.

Alternative Cultural Phenomena (2011-2025)

Nature abhors a vacuum, and in this alternate timeline, other shows would have emerged to capture the cultural conversation that "Game of Thrones" dominated in our timeline:

Elevated AMC Dramas: Without "Game of Thrones," shows like "The Walking Dead" and its spinoffs might have maintained higher cultural relevance for longer. AMC might have invested more heavily in additional prestige dramas rather than seeing its flagship series overshadowed by HBO's fantasy epic.
Different HBO Flagships: HBO would have developed different flagship dramas. Shows like "Westworld" (which premiered in 2016) might have received even more resources and marketing, positioning them as the network's primary draws rather than following in "Game of Thrones" footsteps.
Alternate Fantasy Breakthrough: Eventually, some other fantasy property might have broken through to mainstream success, but likely on a smaller scale and later in the timeline. Perhaps Netflix's "The Witcher" or Amazon's "The Wheel of Time" might have become the first truly mainstream fantasy television series around 2019-2021, but with more modest cultural impact.
Political Drama Dominance: Without fantasy rising to prominence, political dramas like "House of Cards" might have maintained greater cultural significance throughout the 2010s. The appetite for complex political narratives that "Game of Thrones" partially satisfied might have been channeled more directly into contemporary political storytelling.

By 2025 in this alternate timeline, television would still be in its "golden age," but the specific contours of that era would look markedly different. The medium would be less dominated by big-budget spectacle, with greater emphasis on intimate character studies and mid-budget drama. The fantasy genre would remain important but not central to premium television's identity, and the strategies of streaming services would reflect a more diverse approach to content development rather than the race for the "next Game of Thrones" that characterized our timeline.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Amanda Rodriguez, Professor of Media Studies at UCLA, offers this perspective: "The absence of 'Game of Thrones' from our cultural landscape would have created a fundamentally different trajectory for television as a medium. What 'Game of Thrones' did was demonstrate that television could support narratives of incredible scope and complexity—spanning continents, featuring dozens of principal characters, and unfolding over years—while maintaining mainstream appeal. Without this proof of concept, I believe we would have seen a more conservative approach to television storytelling throughout the 2010s, with networks and streaming services less willing to take risks on sprawling, expensive genre productions. The medium would still have evolved toward greater serialization and production quality, but the ceiling would have been substantially lower, and the fantasy genre might still be considered too niche for major investment."

Professor Thomas Chen, author of "Fantasy Media in the Digital Age," provides this analysis: "If 'Game of Thrones' had never been adapted, the fantasy genre would likely still be primarily literary rather than visual in its cultural impact. What made 'Game of Thrones' revolutionary wasn't just that it was fantasy on television—it was how it translated Martin's complex, morally ambiguous approach to fantasy into a visual medium. Without this example, I believe fantasy adaptations would have continued to focus on more traditional heroic narratives with clearer moral lines. We might never have seen the current renaissance of adult-oriented fantasy television. Most importantly, the perception of fantasy as a niche interest would have persisted much longer. In our timeline, 'Game of Thrones' made it acceptable for anyone to be invested in dragons and medieval politics; in an alternate timeline, these interests might still carry the stigma of niche fandom rather than being part of mainstream cultural literacy."

Sarah Johnson, entertainment industry analyst and former HBO executive, explains: "From a business perspective, the absence of 'Game of Thrones' would have dramatically altered HBO's transition into the streaming era. 'Game of Thrones' wasn't just a hit show—it was a subscription driver that brought millions of viewers to HBO who might otherwise never have considered the service. This subscriber base was crucial as HBO navigated the shift from cable to direct-to-consumer models with HBO Now and later HBO Max. Without this flagship property, HBO might have struggled to differentiate itself in an increasingly crowded streaming marketplace. The network's identity was so intertwined with 'Game of Thrones' during the 2010s that its absence would have necessitated an entirely different brand strategy, likely one more rooted in the network's traditional strengths in urban dramas and prestige filmmaking rather than expansion into genre television. The ripple effects across the industry would have been enormous, potentially giving Netflix and other competitors even more dominance in the crucial early years of the streaming wars."