What If Hawaii Never Joined The United States?

The Actual History

The Hawaiian Islands, a volcanic archipelago in the central Pacific, existed as an independent kingdom for nearly a century before American annexation. The unified Kingdom of Hawaii was established in 1795 when King Kamehameha I completed his conquest of most of the major islands. The Hawaiian monarchy continued through several generations, developing international relations and trade networks while maintaining sovereignty.

Western contact, beginning with Captain James Cook's arrival in 1778, steadily increased throughout the 19th century. American missionaries arrived in the 1820s, followed by traders, planters, and businessmen who established sugar plantations. By the 1850s, these economic interests began reshaping Hawaiian society, economy, and politics. The Hawaiian monarchy, particularly under King Kalākaua (reigned 1874-1891), attempted to balance modernization with cultural preservation while navigating growing foreign influence.

The pivotal shift came in 1887 when American and European business interests, primarily represented by the "Hawaiian League," forced King Kalākaua to sign what became known as the "Bayonet Constitution." This document stripped the monarchy of much of its authority and concentrated power among wealthy, primarily white landowners. It also restricted voting rights through property qualifications that disenfranchised most native Hawaiians.

When Queen Liliʻuokalani ascended to the throne in 1891, she sought to restore power to the monarchy and native Hawaiians. In January 1893, as she prepared to promulgate a new constitution, American and European business interests organized a coup with the complicity of U.S. Minister to Hawaii John L. Stevens. The conspirators, backed by U.S. Marines who landed from the USS Boston, deposed the queen and established a provisional government.

President Grover Cleveland initially opposed the overthrow, withdrawing the proposed annexation treaty and ordering an investigation. The Blount Report of July 1893 concluded that U.S. diplomatic and military representatives had abused their authority. Cleveland proposed restoring Liliʻuokalani to the throne, but the provisional government refused to cede power.

In 1894, the Republic of Hawaii was established with Sanford B. Dole as president. When William McKinley became U.S. president in 1897, he favored annexation, which was accomplished via a joint resolution of Congress rather than a treaty. The formal ceremony transferring sovereignty occurred on August 12, 1898, and Hawaii became a U.S. territory. Native Hawaiians widely opposed annexation – a petition against it gathered over 21,000 signatures (representing the majority of native Hawaiians) – but they were powerless to prevent it.

Hawaii remained a territory until August 21, 1959, when it became the 50th U.S. state following a referendum in which 94% of voters supported statehood. Throughout the 20th century, Hawaii experienced dramatic social and economic changes, including the development of tourism as its primary industry, military buildup (exemplified by the Pearl Harbor naval base), and cultural revitalization movements among native Hawaiians.

Today, the legacy of this history remains contentious. Some native Hawaiian groups continue to advocate for sovereignty, pointing to the illegal nature of the 1893 overthrow – a view officially acknowledged by Congress in the 1993 Apology Resolution, which recognized that "the indigenous Hawaiian people never directly relinquished their claims to their inherent sovereignty" and that the overthrow was "illegal."

The Point of Divergence

What if Hawaii never joined the United States? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where the Hawaiian Kingdom maintained its sovereignty, avoiding the 1893 overthrow and subsequent annexation that irrevocably changed the archipelago's destiny.

Several plausible historical junctures could have produced this divergence:

Scenario 1: Queen Liliʻuokalani's Tactical Retreat In our timeline, when confronted with the 1893 coup backed by U.S. Marines, Queen Liliʻuokalani yielded her authority under protest, believing the United States would eventually restore her throne once the facts became known. In this alternate scenario, perhaps she recognized the plotters' intentions earlier and strategically delayed her constitutional reforms while building stronger international alliances. Rather than directly confronting the conspirators, she might have worked methodically to diminish their influence through diplomatic channels, preserving the monarchy through a more gradual approach to constitutional reform.

Scenario 2: Decisive American Non-Intervention The role of U.S. Minister John L. Stevens was crucial in the actual overthrow. He preemptively recognized the provisional government and authorized the landing of U.S. Marines. In this alternate timeline, perhaps President Benjamin Harrison issued clearer directives against American interference in Hawaiian governance, or Stevens was replaced by a diplomat who maintained proper neutrality. Without American military backing, the coup plotters might have lacked the necessary leverage to overthrow the queen.

Scenario 3: Effective International Pressure Hawaii had treaties with major powers including Britain, France, and Japan. In this alternate timeline, these nations might have more forcefully objected to American interference in a recognized sovereign state. British interests in particular, given their historical relationship with the Hawaiian monarchy, could have provided diplomatic counterweight to American expansionism.

Scenario 4: President Cleveland's Successful Intervention After the overthrow, President Grover Cleveland's investigation concluded that U.S. actions were inappropriate, and he attempted to restore the queen. In our timeline, his efforts failed against congressional opposition. In this divergent scenario, Cleveland might have successfully leveraged executive authority to reverse the overthrow, perhaps by withdrawing recognition from the provisional government and imposing diplomatic or economic consequences until the queen was restored.

For this alternate history, we'll primarily follow Scenario 4, wherein President Cleveland's administration successfully orchestrates the restoration of Queen Liliʻuokalani to the Hawaiian throne in 1893-94, effectively reversing the coup and setting Hawaii on a path of continued independence.

Immediate Aftermath

Restoration of Constitutional Monarchy (1893-1895)

Following President Cleveland's firm stance against the illegal overthrow, the U.S. government applied significant diplomatic pressure on the provisional government. In late 1893, Cleveland sent Special Commissioner James Blount back to Hawaii with expanded authority and the backing of naval forces—not to support the provisional government, but to oversee a peaceful transition of power back to the constitutional monarchy.

The provisional government, led by Sanford Dole, initially resisted. However, when faced with the withdrawal of American recognition, potential economic sanctions, and the explicit statement that the United States would not consider annexation under these circumstances, their position weakened considerably. By February 1894, negotiations facilitated by British and Japanese diplomats resulted in a compromise: Queen Liliʻuokalani would be restored to the throne under a revised constitution that balanced monarchical authority with representative government.

Key to this resolution was Liliʻuokalani's pragmatic decision to offer amnesty to most coup participants in exchange for their acceptance of the restoration. This magnanimous approach, though difficult for her personally, helped prevent further polarization of Hawaiian society.

Constitutional Reforms and Political Reconciliation (1895-1898)

The restored Hawaiian government implemented a series of careful reforms:

Constitutional Amendments: The new constitution maintained many democratic elements while removing the most egregious features of the 1887 "Bayonet Constitution." Voting rights were expanded, though some property qualifications remained as a transitional measure.
Land Reform Programs: Recognizing that economic inequality fueled political instability, the government initiated moderate land reforms that protected native Hawaiian land interests while providing security for legitimate foreign investments.
Judicial Restructuring: The Hawaiian courts were reorganized to ensure greater independence and protect both native Hawaiian interests and foreign commerce under clearly established rules of law.

Queen Liliʻuokalani, drawing lessons from the overthrow, governed with a coalition cabinet that included both native Hawaiian leaders and moderate business representatives. This balanced approach helped stabilize the political situation, though tensions remained between sovereignty advocates and those with American commercial interests.

International Relations and Security Arrangements (1895-1900)

The Hawaiian Kingdom recognized that maintaining independence required adept diplomacy. Several key developments shaped Hawaii's international position:

Diversified Treaty Network: While maintaining friendly relations with the United States, the Hawaiian government deliberately strengthened ties with Britain, Japan, and Germany, creating a balanced international framework that made unilateral action by any single power more difficult.
Pearl Harbor Lease Renegotiation: The existing Pearl Harbor lease to the United States was maintained but renegotiated in 1896 to include clearer sovereignty provisions and increased compensation, acknowledging American strategic interests while reinforcing Hawaiian independence.
Military Modernization: With revenues from international trade and leasing arrangements, Hawaii began a modest military modernization program, focusing primarily on coastal defenses and a small naval force for territorial waters. Japanese naval advisors complemented the existing American and European military influences.

Economic Adjustments and Development (1895-1903)

Hawaii's economy underwent significant transitions during this period:

Sugar Industry Restructuring: While American sugar interests remained important, the Hawaiian government encouraged diversification of ownership and investment sources. British and Japanese capital began flowing into the sugar industry, reducing dependence on American markets.
Trade Agreement Diversification: Recognizing the risk of economic dependence, Hawaiian diplomats negotiated new trade agreements with Japan, Australia, and Canada, while maintaining access to the American market through a revised reciprocity treaty.
Infrastructure Development: The restored monarchy invested in harbor facilities, roads, and early electrical systems, especially in Honolulu, positioning Hawaii as an increasingly modern Pacific state rather than just an agricultural producer.

By 1900, Hawaii had weathered the immediate crisis of the attempted overthrow and established a more stable constitutional monarchy with diversified international relationships. Queen Liliʻuokalani, though aging, had successfully guided the kingdom through its most serious sovereignty challenge, setting the stage for a new generation of leadership in the 20th century.

Long-term Impact

Political Evolution (1900-1940)

The Hawaiian Kingdom underwent significant political developments in the early 20th century:

Succession and Modernization: Following Queen Liliʻuokalani's death in 1917, the Hawaiian throne passed to her designated heir, Prince Jonah Kūhiō Kalanianaʻole, who had been groomed for leadership. Under his reign (1917-1930), the monarchy continued its evolution toward a European-style constitutional monarchy where the sovereign held important symbolic and diplomatic roles while government operations fell increasingly to an elected parliament.
Democratic Reforms: By the 1920s, property qualifications for voting were eliminated entirely, and women gained suffrage, actually ahead of several Western nations. The Hawaiian political system developed a distinctive character that blended Westminster parliamentary traditions with indigenous Hawaiian governance concepts.
Multicultural Political Integration: Unlike many Pacific societies under colonial rule, independent Hawaii developed political institutions that gradually integrated its multicultural population. By the 1930s, ethnic Japanese, Chinese, and Filipino Hawaiians had representation in parliament, creating a unique political culture.

Economic Development and Industrialization (1900-1960)

Hawaii's economy diversified significantly beyond its 19th-century plantation roots:

Agricultural Diversification: While sugar remained important, pineapple cultivation expanded rapidly in the early 20th century. Without American tariff protections that favored specific industries in our timeline, Hawaiian agriculture developed more varied crops and ownership structures.
Early Tourism Development: Beginning in the 1920s, Hawaii began developing tourism, leveraging its unique culture and natural beauty. Without American domestic tourism domination, Hawaii's tourism industry evolved with a more international character, attracting wealthy visitors from Japan, Australia, and Europe alongside Americans.
Light Industrial Development: By the 1940s and 1950s, Hawaii had developed modest manufacturing sectors, particularly food processing, textile production, and crafts. The necessity of economic self-sufficiency drove innovation in sectors that were underdeveloped in our timeline's Hawaii.
Banking and Financial Services: Honolulu emerged as a minor but significant Pacific financial center, serving as an intermediary between Asian and American markets, particularly after World War II. The Kingdom established the Bank of Hawaii as a central bank in 1908, giving it monetary policy flexibility unavailable to the American territory.

World War II and Strategic Position (1939-1945)

Hawaii's experience during World War II would have differed dramatically:

Neutrality Attempts: Initially, the Hawaiian Kingdom attempted to maintain neutrality when war broke out in Europe. However, its strategic position and existing relationships made this increasingly difficult.
Pearl Harbor Question: Without American sovereignty, Pearl Harbor would have presented a complex diplomatic situation. Most likely, the Hawaiian government would have continued leasing facilities to the U.S. Navy while maintaining formal neutrality. This arrangement would have created tension with Japan as Pacific conflicts intensified.
Japanese Diplomatic Pressure: Given Hawaii's significant ethnic Japanese population and its strategic position, Japan likely would have applied intense diplomatic pressure on Hawaii prior to 1941, possibly demanding similar basing rights or preferential treatment.
Limited Occupation Scenario: In this timeline, Japan might have occupied or established significant control over Hawaii during 1941-1943 as part of its Pacific expansion. Unlike the devastating surprise attack in our timeline, this might have involved combined military action and political pressure on the Hawaiian government.
Liberation and Aftermath: Allied forces, primarily American, would have eventually liberated Hawaii, likely by 1944-1945. This experience would have created a complex relationship between Hawaii and the United States—gratitude mixed with determination to maintain independence.

Post-War International Position (1945-1975)

After World War II, Hawaii would have navigated the Cold War era from a unique position:

Demilitarized Neutrality: Learning from the war experience, Hawaii might have adopted a formally neutral but Western-aligned stance, similar to Switzerland or Sweden. The Pearl Harbor facilities might have been maintained under a NATO-adjacent agreement rather than as sovereign American territory.
United Nations Founding Member: As an independent state, Hawaii would have been among the original United Nations members in 1945, giving it an international platform disproportionate to its size.
Pacific Regional Leadership: Hawaii could have emerged as a leader in Pacific regionalism, potentially housing headquarters for Pacific cooperation organizations and advocating for other island nations.
Cultural and Diplomatic Influence: Leveraging its unique position between East and West, Hawaii likely would have developed significant diplomatic expertise and cultural exchange programs, becoming a bridge between Asian and Western powers.

Modern Economic and Cultural Development (1975-2025)

In recent decades, independent Hawaii would have evolved along a distinctive path:

Economic Model: Rather than the tourism-dominated economy of our timeline, independent Hawaii would likely have developed a more balanced economy resembling Singapore or New Zealand—combining tourism, high-value agriculture, education, technology, and financial services.
Technology Hub Development: Beginning in the 1980s, Hawaii could have leveraged its position to become a Pacific technology center, potentially developing earlier and stronger internet infrastructure due to its position as a telecommunications hub between continents.
Indigenous Cultural Renaissance: Without American cultural domination, native Hawaiian language and cultural practices would have remained more continuously integrated into national life. The Hawaiian language would be the national language alongside English, with higher everyday usage rates than in our timeline.
Environmental Leadership: As an island nation particularly vulnerable to climate change, Hawaii would likely have emerged as a global environmental leader, pioneering renewable energy and conservation policies earlier than many larger nations.
Modern Monarchy: By 2025, the Hawaiian monarchy would represent one of the world's most modern constitutional monarchies, serving as a cultural foundation and international symbol while operating within a fully democratic system.

Geopolitical Position in 2025

In the present day of our alternate timeline, the Kingdom of Hawaii would occupy a distinctive position in global affairs:

Regional Importance: With approximately 1.8 million citizens, Hawaii would be small but influential, particularly in Pacific affairs where it would serve as a mediating force between larger powers.
Economic Standing: With a diverse economy built on tourism, technology, education, and financial services, Hawaii would likely have a GDP per capita comparable to New Zealand or Singapore—higher than in our timeline due to greater economic diversification and control over its development model.
Military Arrangements: Hawaii would maintain a small but professional defense force while hosting limited international military facilities under carefully negotiated agreements with several powers, allowing it to maintain relationships without being dominated by any single nation.
Cultural Influence: Hawaii would wield soft power disproportionate to its size, with its indigenous-influenced governance models and sustainability practices studied internationally. Hawaiian cultural productions and educational institutions would have global reach.

This independent Hawaii, while facing the challenges all small nations encounter in a world of great powers, would represent a unique example of how indigenous sovereignty could evolve within the modern global system—an alternative to both complete Westernization and isolation.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Keanu Kamaka, Professor of Hawaiian Political History at the University of Honolulu, offers this perspective: "Had Hawaii maintained its independence, we would likely see a nation that resembles other successful small states like Singapore or New Zealand, but with a crucial difference—the continuous evolution of indigenous political traditions. The Hawaiian monarchy would have modernized while preserving its cultural foundations, potentially creating governance models that blend Westminster parliamentary efficiency with traditional Hawaiian consensus-building practices. This would have global significance as an example of how indigenous political systems can adapt to modernity without being replaced by them."

Dr. Jennifer Nakoa, Economic Historian at the East-West Center, provides this economic analysis: "Independent Hawaii would almost certainly be more prosperous on a per capita basis than in our timeline. Without the plantation-dominated economy that American annexation reinforced, Hawaii would have diversified earlier. By controlling its own trade policy and immigration, Hawaii could have positioned itself as a Pacific commercial hub decades earlier than Singapore did. The preservation of traditional land tenure systems alongside modern development might have created more equitable patterns of wealth distribution as well, potentially avoiding some of the extreme property value issues that plague Hawaii today."

Professor Thomas Kawamoto, International Relations specialist at Tokyo University, considers security implications: "An independent Hawaii would have faced enormous pressure during World War II and the Cold War. Its survival would have required sophisticated diplomacy and carefully balanced relationships with multiple powers. The most likely outcome would be something resembling Austria or Finland during the Cold War—formally neutral but Western-leaning with carefully negotiated security arrangements. In today's multipolar Pacific with rising tensions between China and the United States, Hawaii might actually be in a unique position to serve as a diplomatic intermediary, hosting regional security dialogues that might be impossible on either American or Chinese territory."