What If Hitler Was Assassinated in The July 20 Plot?

The Actual History

On July 20, 1944, as World War II entered its fifth year and Nazi Germany faced impending defeat, a group of German military officers executed their long-planned attempt to assassinate Adolf Hitler and seize control of the German government. This conspiracy, centered around Colonel Claus von Stauffenberg and other high-ranking Wehrmacht officers, represented the most significant internal resistance to Hitler's regime.

The plot, codenamed Operation Valkyrie, involved placing a bomb in Hitler's "Wolf's Lair" headquarters in East Prussia during a military briefing. Colonel von Stauffenberg personally carried the explosive device, hidden in his briefcase, into the conference room. At approximately 12:42 PM, he placed the briefcase under the conference table near Hitler and then excused himself from the meeting, ostensibly to make an urgent phone call.

The bomb detonated at 12:50 PM, destroying the conference room and killing several officers present. However, Hitler himself survived with only minor injuries. The heavy oak conference table had shielded him from the blast's full force, and someone had inadvertently moved the briefcase to the opposite side of a thick table leg from where Hitler was standing.

Following the explosion, chaos and confusion initially reigned, but once it became clear that Hitler had survived, the coup attempt quickly unraveled. Von Stauffenberg and his co-conspirators in Berlin had already begun implementing the next phase of their plan, assuming Hitler was dead. They attempted to activate Operation Valkyrie, which involved using the Reserve Army to secure control of Berlin and arrest SS leaders.

However, without confirmation of Hitler's death, many military commanders hesitated to join the coup. By early evening, Hitler was able to broadcast a radio message confirming he was alive, which effectively ended any momentum the conspirators had gained. Within hours, loyal Nazi forces had regained control and began arresting those involved in the plot.

The aftermath was brutal. Hitler ordered savage reprisals against the conspirators and anyone suspected of involvement. Von Stauffenberg and three other key conspirators were executed by firing squad in the courtyard of the Bendlerblock (Army headquarters) in Berlin on the same night. In the following months, approximately 7,000 people were arrested by the Gestapo, and nearly 5,000 were executed. Many were subjected to show trials in the notorious People's Court under Judge Roland Freisler, before being hanged with piano wire from meat hooks, their executions filmed for Hitler's viewing.

The failure of the July 20 plot allowed Hitler to remain in power for another nine months, during which time the war continued with devastating losses. Nazi Germany finally surrendered in May 1945 after Hitler's suicide in his Berlin bunker on April 30. The failed assassination attempt stands as the most significant effort by Germans themselves to remove Hitler and potentially end the war earlier, potentially saving countless lives and altering the course of European history.

The Point of Divergence

What if Colonel Claus von Stauffenberg's bomb had successfully killed Adolf Hitler on July 20, 1944? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where a series of minor but crucial differences led to the success of Operation Valkyrie, fundamentally altering the final stage of World War II and the subsequent European political landscape.

Several plausible changes could have resulted in Hitler's death that day. The most straightforward alteration involves the placement of the briefcase containing the bomb. In our timeline, after von Stauffenberg placed his briefcase under the conference table, Colonel Heinz Brandt inadvertently pushed it behind a heavy oak table support, which shielded Hitler from the full force of the explosion. In this alternate timeline, the briefcase remained precisely where von Stauffenberg positioned it—directly adjacent to Hitler.

Alternatively, the divergence might have occurred in the bomb's construction. Historically, von Stauffenberg was only able to arm one of the two explosive devices he had prepared, as he was interrupted while priming them. Had he successfully armed both devices as planned, the doubled explosive force would have been sufficient to kill everyone in the conference room, regardless of the briefcase's exact position.

A third possibility involves the meeting location itself. The conference was originally scheduled to take place in Hitler's underground bunker, where the confined space would have magnified the blast effect. It was moved to a wooden barracks at the last minute due to the summer heat. In our alternate scenario, perhaps the meeting proceeds in the bunker as initially planned, ensuring that even a single explosive device would prove lethal.

Regardless of the specific mechanism, in this alternate timeline, the explosion at 12:50 PM on July 20, 1944, successfully kills Adolf Hitler, along with Field Marshal Wilhelm Keitel, General Alfred Jodl, and several other high-ranking Nazi officials—decapitating the Nazi leadership in a single stroke and creating a power vacuum that the conspirators moved quickly to fill.

Immediate Aftermath

The First 24 Hours: Operation Valkyrie Activated

With confirmation of Hitler's death, Colonel von Stauffenberg and General Friedrich Olbricht immediately activated Operation Valkyrie from their headquarters at the Bendlerblock in Berlin. The plan, originally designed to quell civil unrest in case of Allied bombing, was repurposed to enable the Reserve Army to seize control of the government. By mid-afternoon, Reserve Army units began securing key government buildings, radio stations, and communication centers throughout Berlin.

Unlike in our timeline, where uncertainty about Hitler's fate caused fatal hesitation, here the conspirators acted with decisive confidence. General Friedrich Fromm, Commander of the Reserve Army—who historically betrayed the conspirators once he learned Hitler survived—now joined the coup, recognizing the opportunity to position himself favorably in the post-Hitler regime. His cooperation proved crucial, as it gave the conspirators unquestioned command over the Reserve Army.

By evening, the conspirators had arrested several high-ranking SS officers, including Heinrich Himmler and Joseph Goebbels. Hermann Göring, technically Hitler's designated successor, was detained while attempting to reach Berlin from his estate. The plotters leveraged the military chain of command, using their authority to issue orders that were followed by officers accustomed to obeying their superiors.

The First Week: Establishing a Transitional Government

As outlined in the conspirators' plans, they quickly established a transitional government under former Mayor of Leipzig Carl Friedrich Goerdeler as Chancellor, with Ludwig Beck (former Chief of the German General Staff) as head of state. This civilian-military coalition included both conservative aristocrats and more moderate elements, united primarily by their opposition to Hitler rather than by a coherent political vision.

The new government immediately faced three critical challenges:

Internal Security: Despite the successful elimination of top Nazi leadership, the SS and Hitler loyalists remained a significant threat. The conspirators leveraged their military authority to disarm SS units where possible, though scattered resistance occurred in several German cities. Within days, Heinrich Müller, head of the Gestapo, was captured while organizing resistance cells, further destabilizing potential Nazi countermeasures.
Communication Control: The plotters had prepared statements announcing Hitler's death and the formation of a new government. Using seized radio stations, they broadcast these announcements throughout Germany and occupied territories, presenting the change as a necessary step to save Germany from destruction. Field Marshal Erwin Rommel, who had been peripherally aware of the plot and was highly respected by the German public, made a pivotal radio address supporting the new government, lending it crucial legitimacy.
Military Chain of Command: Perhaps most critically, the conspirators had to establish control over Germany's armed forces, particularly those fighting on the Eastern and Western fronts. Field marshals and generals received coded messages informing them of Hitler's death and instructing them to accept orders only from the new Berlin government. The response was mixed—some immediately pledged loyalty, while others hesitated or expressed skepticism.

The First Month: Peace Feelers and Military Reality

By mid-August 1944, the transitional government had consolidated sufficient control to begin addressing Germany's catastrophic strategic situation. Their primary objective became extricating Germany from a war that was clearly lost, while maintaining as much sovereignty and territory as possible.

Diplomatic Initiatives: The new government immediately dispatched secret emissaries to neutral Sweden and Switzerland, attempting to establish back-channel communications with Western Allies. Their initial peace proposal included:

Germany's withdrawal from all Western occupied territories (France, Belgium, Netherlands, Norway)
The removal of all Nazi officials from government
Trial of major war criminals
Preservation of Germany's 1937 borders

These proposals met with skepticism from the Allies, who had already committed to the policy of unconditional surrender at the Casablanca Conference in 1943. Nevertheless, the elimination of Hitler created some flexibility in Allied thinking, particularly among British leadership.

Military Redeployment: On the Eastern Front, the situation was dire. The massive Soviet Operation Bagration had already destroyed Army Group Center, and Soviet forces were advancing rapidly toward East Prussia and Poland. The new German leadership made the strategic decision to prioritize defense against the Soviet advance while conducting a fighting withdrawal in the West. This decision reflected both military reality and the new government's hope of eventually negotiating with Western Allies from a position of minimal strength.

Field Marshal Walther Model, who had earned a reputation as a defensive specialist, was given command of all Eastern Front operations with authorization to conduct strategic retreats when necessary—something Hitler had frequently forbidden. In the West, Field Marshal Gerd von Rundstedt was reinstated as commander with instructions to establish defensive lines that could be maintained with minimal casualties while the government pursued diplomatic solutions.

Public Reaction: Within Germany, public reaction to Hitler's death and the new government was complex. Many Germans, exhausted by years of increasingly desperate warfare and aware of the deteriorating military situation, cautiously welcomed the possibility of peace. Others, particularly devoted Nazi Party members and Hitler Youth, expressed shock and dismay. The new government carefully managed information flow, emphasizing Hitler's "death in service to Germany" while quietly dismantling the personality cult surrounding him.

By the end of the first month, the transitional government had established tenuous control over Germany's internal affairs and military operations, but faced immense challenges both diplomatically and militarily as they attempted to extract Germany from a war it was losing on all fronts.

Long-term Impact

Autumn 1944: The Two-Front Endgame

By September 1944, the fundamental strategic reality became unavoidable for Germany's new leadership: the war was militarily unwinnable. Their focus shifted entirely to achieving the least catastrophic conclusion possible and preventing Soviet occupation of German territory.

The Western Front: In a pivotal decision that would shape postwar Europe, the transitional government authorized a strategic withdrawal from France, the Low Countries, and Denmark, abandoning Hitler's "hold at all costs" doctrine. This pragmatic approach allowed German forces to establish more defensible positions along the Siegfried Line (West Wall) while conserving manpower. The withdrawal was conducted with more discipline than might have occurred under Hitler's increasingly erratic leadership, enabling the evacuation of valuable equipment and preventing the complete encirclement of German forces that occurred historically.

Despite these orderly withdrawals, the Western Allies continued their advance toward Germany's borders. By October, American forces had reached the Siegfried Line, and British forces were approaching the Netherlands and northern Germany. Unlike our timeline, however, the absence of Hitler's interference meant German forces could conduct more effective defensive operations with realistic objectives.

The Eastern Front: The eastern situation presented the new government with its most difficult decisions. Soviet forces, motivated by years of brutal German occupation and atrocities, showed little interest in negotiation. The transitional government redirected forces from the West to slow the Soviet advance, particularly focusing on defending East Prussia, Silesia, and the approaches to Berlin.

Field Marshal Model implemented a defense-in-depth strategy, abandoning Hitler's "no retreat" orders in favor of more flexible defensive operations. This approach couldn't stop the Soviet advance but managed to slow it significantly compared to our timeline. By December 1944, Soviet forces had reached the Vistula River in Poland but faced more organized resistance than they encountered historically.

Diplomatic Developments: By late 1944, the transitional government's peace feelers began gaining limited traction with the Western Allies, particularly with British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, who grew increasingly concerned about Soviet postwar dominance in Europe. These back-channel communications laid groundwork for what would eventually become a significant divergence from our timeline's conclusion to the European war.

Winter 1944-45: Negotiated Surrender in the West

The pivotal development came in January 1945, when the German government made a formal offer of separate surrender to the Western Allies. Key terms included:

Complete military surrender on the Western Front
Allied occupation of western Germany
Cooperation in arresting and trying Nazi war criminals
Continued German resistance against Soviet forces in the East

This proposal created significant tension among the Allies. Stalin, informed of these negotiations by Soviet intelligence, accused the Western Allies of contemplating a separate peace in violation of previous agreements. Roosevelt, committed to maintaining Allied unity and concerned about Soviet cooperation in the still-ongoing Pacific War, initially rejected the German proposal.

However, Churchill, increasingly alarmed by Soviet intentions in Eastern Europe, advocated for consideration of the German offer. After intense negotiations, a modified agreement emerged by March 1945:

Germany would surrender unconditionally to Western Allied forces
German forces would withdraw from all remaining occupied territories in the West
The Western Allies would occupy Germany up to an agreed demarcation line approximating the Elbe River
German forces east of this line would continue fighting Soviet forces
The Western Allies would not actively assist German eastern defense but would advance only to the agreed line

This arrangement, while falling short of a formal separate peace, allowed for the cessation of hostilities in Western Europe months earlier than in our timeline, saving hundreds of thousands of lives. The first American and British troops crossed the Rhine in March 1945 with minimal resistance, and by April had reached the designated demarcation line.

Spring-Summer 1945: The Eastern Conclusion

In the East, the war continued with growing desperation on the German side. Without Hitler's fanatical leadership demanding suicidal last stands, German forces conducted a more orderly defense focused on evacuating civilians ahead of the Soviet advance. This approach couldn't prevent Soviet victory but significantly altered its character compared to our timeline.

By May 1945, Soviet forces had reached the Oder River and were preparing for the final push to Berlin. With Western Allied forces already occupying western Germany and no prospect of victory, the transitional government faced its final decision. On May 8, 1945 (coincidentally the same date as in our timeline), Germany surrendered unconditionally on all fronts.

The key difference from our timeline was the position of Allied forces at war's end. Western Allied troops already occupied much of western and central Germany, while Soviet forces controlled Poland and were only beginning their push into eastern Germany proper. This territorial reality would fundamentally shape the postwar order.

The Postwar European Order (1945-1955)

The early elimination of Hitler and the more pragmatic final phase of the war created a significantly different postwar landscape:

Occupation Zones: Germany was still divided into occupation zones, but with different boundaries than our timeline. The Soviet zone comprised primarily eastern Germany (roughly modern Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and parts of Saxony), while American, British, and French zones covered the remainder—a significantly larger portion of Germany than in our timeline. Berlin, laying within the Allied occupation zone, did not become a divided city.

The Iron Curtain: The "Iron Curtain" descended further east than in our timeline. Poland remained under Soviet influence, but much of what became East Germany in our timeline remained under Western Allied control. This created a significantly different Cold War geography, with NATO's eventual frontline much closer to Poland and the Soviet Union.

Denazification and War Crimes: The transitional government's early cooperation with Allied authorities facilitated a more thorough but less chaotic denazification process. Many high-ranking Nazi officials had already been arrested by the German government before the Allied occupation. The Nuremberg Trials proceeded similarly to our timeline, though with some key differences—Göring, Himmler, and Goebbels were all tried and executed, rather than committing suicide as they did historically.

German Recovery: The combination of less destruction in the war's final phase, earlier cessation of bombing campaigns, and larger territory under Western Allied control accelerated German economic recovery. The Marshall Plan, implemented in 1948 as in our timeline, found more fertile ground in a larger Western-aligned Germany with more intact infrastructure and industrial capacity.

The Cold War Context (1955-1990)

The altered European map created significant differences in Cold War dynamics:

German Unification: The Federal Republic of Germany formed in 1949 consisted of a significantly larger territory than in our timeline. By 1955, as occupation officially ended, Germany had emerged as a crucial NATO ally with greater economic and eventually military potential than in our timeline, owing to its larger population and industrial base.

Military and Strategic Balance: NATO's forward position, closer to the Soviet Union's sphere of influence, created different strategic calculations for both sides. The Warsaw Pact, formed in 1955, faced a more formidable Western European alignment. This may have actually stabilized the European Cold War, as the clearer balance of power reduced incentives for adventurism on either side.

European Integration: European integration proceeded along similar lines to our timeline, with the European Coal and Steel Community evolving into the European Economic Community and eventually the European Union. Germany's larger economic base accelerated European economic recovery and integration, potentially advancing the timeline for European milestones by several years.

Contemporary Legacy (1990-2025)

The alternate July 20 timeline's most enduring consequences emerged after the Cold War's end:

Post-Cold War Geography: When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 (as in our timeline), the resulting European map differed significantly. A unified Germany had existed since 1949, and the challenge of integrating former communist territories was limited primarily to international rather than internal integration—focusing on bringing Poland, Czechoslovakia, and other Eastern European nations into Western institutions rather than absorbing a former East Germany.

Historical Memory: Perhaps most significantly, German historical memory developed differently. The successful resistance against Hitler by German military officers became a foundational narrative of the postwar state—evidence that "good Germans" had opposed the Nazi regime at great personal risk. This didn't erase Germany's responsibility for Nazi crimes but provided a more complex national narrative about resistance and complicity.

Museums commemorating the July 20 plotters became major sites of German historical memory, and figures like von Stauffenberg achieved a status in German historical consciousness comparable to founding fathers rather than tragic heroes. Annual commemorations of July 20 evolved into something akin to a national day, celebrating the moment when Germans themselves took action against tyranny.

By 2025, this alternate Germany—larger, unified earlier, and shaped by a different founding narrative—remains Europe's economic powerhouse but with subtle differences in its political culture and international positions, reflecting the long shadow of that momentous day in July 1944 when a bomb successfully changed history's course.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Richard Schmidt, Professor of Modern European History at Columbia University, offers this perspective: "The successful July 20 plot represents one of history's most tantalizing 'what ifs.' Had Hitler been killed and the conspirators seized control, we would likely have seen a very different end to World War II. The conspirators weren't democrats in the modern sense—many were conservative aristocrats and military men—but they recognized Germany's dire situation and wanted to preserve what they could of their nation. They likely would have achieved a partial surrender that kept Soviet forces further east, fundamentally altering the Cold War geography. Perhaps most significantly, Germans' postwar relationship with their own history would have featured a homegrown resistance movement that successfully overthrew Hitler, providing a different foundation for national identity rebuilding."

Professor Eliza Mortonson, Chair of International Security Studies at King's College London, provides a contrasting view: "While a successful July 20 plot might have ended the European war sooner, we should be cautious about overly optimistic projections. The Western Allies were deeply committed to their 'unconditional surrender' policy, and Stalin would have vehemently opposed any separate peace. More likely, a post-Hitler government might have achieved marginally better military outcomes through more rational deployments, but the fundamental Allied victory would have proceeded roughly as it did historically. The most significant changes would have been in the psychological realm—Germans would have had the narrative of self-liberation rather than total external defeat, potentially accelerating their reintegration into the European community and NATO alliance system."

Dr. Heinrich Müller, Senior Researcher at the German Historical Institute in Washington DC, adds: "One aspect often overlooked is how a successful July 20 plot would have affected Holocaust history. By July 1944, approximately 80% of Holocaust victims had already been murdered, so the conspirators couldn't have prevented the genocide's largest phase. However, tens of thousands of Hungarian Jews were still being deported to Auschwitz, and death marches hadn't yet begun. A new German government, aware of looming war crimes trials and seeking Allied goodwill, would likely have immediately halted these final phases of genocide. Additionally, they would have preserved evidence and begun arresting perpetrators, potentially creating a more thorough accounting of Nazi crimes than occurred in our timeline, where many documents were destroyed and perpetrators escaped in the war's chaotic final days."