What If Hobart Developed Different Tourism Strategies?

The Actual History

Hobart, the capital city of Tasmania, Australia's island state, has undergone a remarkable transformation in its tourism sector over the past two decades. Historically, Tasmania was often overlooked by both domestic and international tourists, with Hobart serving primarily as a gateway to the island's wilderness areas rather than a destination in its own right. The city's tourism industry was traditionally centered around its colonial heritage, maritime history, and natural attractions like Mount Wellington (kunanyi).

The watershed moment in Hobart's tourism evolution came in January 2011 with the opening of the Museum of Old and New Art (MONA). Founded by eccentric local mathematician, professional gambler, and art collector David Walsh, MONA quickly became a game-changer for Hobart's tourism landscape. Described by Walsh himself as a "subversive adult Disneyland," the museum's provocative contemporary art collection, unconventional presentation style, and striking architecture dramatically shifted perceptions of Hobart virtually overnight.

MONA's success catalyzed a broader cultural renaissance in Hobart. In 2013, the museum launched Dark Mofo, a winter festival celebrating the dark through large-scale public art, food, music, light, film, and noise. The festival, with its pagan-inspired rituals like nude solstice swims and controversial performances, drew visitors to Hobart during what was traditionally the city's quiet winter tourism season. By 2019, Dark Mofo was attracting over 100,000 visitors to the city, generating approximately AU$50 million for the local economy.

This cultural transformation was complemented by the rise of Hobart's food and beverage scene, which increasingly emphasized Tasmanian produce, cool-climate wines, whisky, and craft beer. The Salamanca Market, established in 1972, expanded its offerings and reputation, while the broader waterfront area underwent significant redevelopment. The University of Tasmania's gradual relocation to the city center also contributed to urban revitalization.

Government strategies generally supported these developments, with initiatives like Tourism Tasmania's "Go Behind the Scenery" campaign (launched in 2012) leveraging the state's reputation for unique experiences. Infrastructure improvements included upgrades to Hobart Airport and the construction of new hotel accommodations to meet growing demand.

By 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, Tasmania was experiencing record tourism numbers, with 1.32 million visitors contributing approximately AU$2.5 billion to the state economy. Hobart, in particular, had established itself as a distinctive cultural destination known for its combination of natural beauty, heritage architecture, culinary experiences, and avant-garde arts scene. Post-pandemic recovery saw tourism numbers rebounding, with the industry continuing to evolve through initiatives like the Three Capes Track and developments in eco-tourism and Aboriginal cultural experiences.

This transformation represented a remarkable shift for a city that was previously often maligned as provincial and overlooked in favor of mainland destinations. The "MONA effect" has been studied internationally as a case of successful cultural tourism development, demonstrating how a single institution can redefine a city's identity and tourism appeal.

The Point of Divergence

What if Hobart had pursued fundamentally different tourism development strategies in the early 2000s? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where a combination of different private sector initiatives and government policies led Tasmania's capital down a markedly different path.

The most significant divergence centers on David Walsh's decisions regarding his substantial art collection and personal fortune. In our timeline, Walsh's vision for MONA as a provocative, world-class museum materialized in 2011, becoming the catalyst for Hobart's cultural renaissance. In this alternate timeline, however, several plausible variations could have occurred:

One possibility is that Walsh, facing uncertainty about the museum's financial viability during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, scaled back his ambitious plans significantly or relocated the project to a mainland Australian city with an established tourism base. Alternatively, Walsh might have encountered more substantial regulatory obstacles or local opposition to his unconventional museum concept, delaying or fundamentally altering the project.

Another plausible divergence involves the Tasmanian government's strategic direction. In this alternate timeline, instead of eventually embracing and supporting the cultural tourism boom catalyzed by MONA, state and local governments might have doubled down on more traditional tourism development approaches. This could have involved prioritizing investment in cruise ship infrastructure, conventional attractions like wildlife parks and heritage sites, or positioning Hobart primarily as a gateway to Tasmania's wilderness rather than as a cultural destination in its own right.

The divergence could also have stemmed from different economic circumstances. Perhaps Tasmania's timber industry and forestry disputes evolved differently, shifting political and economic priorities away from tourism development. Or perhaps key individuals in Tourism Tasmania and the Department of Economic Development pursued alternative marketing strategies that emphasized different aspects of the island's appeal.

These various possible points of divergence, occurring roughly between 2005 and 2010, would set Hobart on a substantially different trajectory in terms of its tourism development, urban character, and global reputation.

Immediate Aftermath

The Absence of the "MONA Effect"

Without MONA's 2011 opening as the transformative catalyst, Hobart's tourism sector in the early 2010s would have followed a markedly different trajectory:

Continued Seasonality: Without Dark Mofo drawing visitors during winter months, Hobart would have remained primarily a summer destination. Tourism operators would continue to struggle with pronounced seasonal fluctuations, with many businesses closing or reducing hours during winter.
Conventional Tourism Growth: Rather than the dramatic spike in visitation that occurred in our timeline, Hobart would likely have seen more modest, incremental growth in visitor numbers. Tourism Tasmania's data indicates that between 2006 and 2010, before MONA's opening, annual visitor growth averaged around 1-2%. This pattern would likely have continued.
Different Visitor Demographics: The absence of MONA's drawcard status would have resulted in a different visitor profile. The museum attracted younger, culturally-engaged tourists and significantly boosted international visitation. Without it, Hobart would have maintained its traditional demographic of older domestic tourists interested in heritage and nature.

Alternative Development Pathways

In the absence of the cultural tourism boom, alternative development strategies would have taken precedence:

Cruise Tourism Expansion

In this alternate timeline, Hobart's deep-water port would become the focus of more intensive tourism development:

Infrastructure Investment: The Tasmanian government, seeking quick tourism wins, redirects funds toward expanding the capacity of Macquarie Wharf to accommodate larger and more frequent cruise ships. By 2015, Hobart could handle multiple large vessels simultaneously.
Cruise-Focused Retail: The waterfront area develops with a focus on serving cruise passengers. More souvenir shops, duty-free outlets, and tourism booking offices dominate Salamanca and the waterfront instead of the artisanal producers and galleries that emerged in our timeline.
Day-Trip Economy: With the emphasis on cruise tourism, Hobart's economy becomes more focused on quick turnover, day-trip activities rather than encouraging longer stays. This creates tension between tourism operators and residents affected by periodic overcrowding without the corresponding benefits of overnight stays.

Gateway to Wilderness Strategy

Another direction pursued in this alternate timeline focuses on Hobart's role as entry point to Tasmania's wilderness:

Transport Hub Development: Significant investment goes into positioning Hobart as an efficient hub for dispersing visitors to wilderness areas. The airport undergoes earlier expansion, while improved shuttle services and regional transport links are developed.
Outdoor Adventure Focus: The city develops primarily as a staging area for wilderness activities. Companies offering equipment rental, guided tours, and pre/post-wilderness accommodation flourish, while urban attractions receive less attention.
Ecotourism Certification: Tasmania implements a comprehensive ecotourism certification program, becoming known for sustainability standards rather than cultural innovation. Hobart businesses orient themselves toward this credential system.

Urban and Cultural Landscape

The city's physical and cultural landscape evolves quite differently between 2011 and 2015:

Different Waterfront Development: Without MONA's influence driving cultural precinct development, the waterfront area develops along more conventional lines. The Macquarie Point development proceeds earlier but focuses on commercial and retail opportunities rather than cultural spaces.
Hospitality Scene: Hobart's food and beverage sector continues to develop, but with a different character. Rather than the explosion of experimental restaurants and bars catering to MONA visitors, establishments focus more on traditional Tasmanian produce and conventional offerings for the mainstream tourism market.
Accommodation Development: Hotel development still occurs but at a slower pace and with different styles. Instead of the boutique hotels that emerged to serve the cultural tourism market in our timeline, more mid-range chain hotels and motels are built to accommodate conventional tourism growth.

Economic and Community Impact

The economic and community effects of this alternative path become evident by 2015:

More Modest Growth: Tourism contributes to economic growth, but not with the dramatic impact seen in our timeline. The estimated 400 new businesses that opened in response to MONA's influence between 2011-2015 don't materialize, resulting in fewer employment opportunities, particularly for young Tasmanians.
Different Population Trends: The population growth and demographic shift that Hobart experienced (with more young professionals and creative industry workers moving to the city) doesn't occur at the same rate. The "brain drain" of young Tasmanians to mainland Australia continues more intensely.
Fewer International Connections: Without the international attention generated by MONA and Dark Mofo, Hobart maintains a lower global profile. The substantial increase in international visitation (which grew by over 40% in the five years following MONA's opening in our timeline) doesn't materialize.
Different Community Identity: The community debates around art, public space, and cultural identity that have characterized Hobart's development take different forms. Rather than controversies about provocative art installations, community tensions center more on environmental concerns, cruise ship impacts, and conflicts between tourism development and local amenity.

By 2015, this alternate Hobart would have established a tourism identity more in line with conventional expectations for a small Australian capital city—a pleasant destination known primarily for its natural surroundings and colonial heritage, rather than emerging as the unexpected cultural tourism success story it became in our timeline.

Long-term Impact

Economic Transformation by 2025

By 2025, the economic landscape of this alternate Hobart would differ substantially from our timeline:

Tourism Economic Structure

Volume vs. Value Tourism: Without the high-yield cultural tourism attracted by MONA and its associated festivals, Hobart would likely have pursued a volume-based tourism model. This alternate Hobart might see more total visitors but with lower per-visitor spending. Analysis from Tourism Research Australia indicates that cultural tourists typically spend 20-30% more per trip than conventional tourists.
Investment Patterns: Private sector investment would have followed different patterns. Instead of the estimated AU$500 million in arts-related infrastructure that followed MONA in our timeline, investment would concentrate in conventional tourism assets—larger hotels, tour operations, and retail complexes. By 2025, Hobart might have twice the number of hotel rooms but at lower average room rates.
Employment Characteristics: The tourism workforce would differ significantly in composition. Rather than the diverse creative economy jobs (curators, artists, designers, specialized hospitality) that emerged in our timeline, employment would center more on traditional tourism roles. This would result in more seasonal employment, lower average wages, and different skill development trajectories.

Urban Development Trajectory

City Center Evolution: Without the cultural revitalization that drew people and activity to Hobart's CBD in our timeline, urban development would follow different patterns:
- The anticipated relocation of the University of Tasmania to the city center might be scaled back or abandoned entirely, removing a major driver of urban renewal.
- Macquarie Point development would proceed with conventional commercial uses rather than the mixed cultural precinct envisioned in our timeline.
- North Hobart's renaissance as a dining and entertainment precinct might occur more slowly or with a different character, focused more on conventional offerings.
Property Market Impacts: Hobart's real estate market, which experienced rapid appreciation partly attributed to the "MONA effect," would follow a more moderate growth trajectory. The gentrification of previously overlooked neighborhoods like Moonah and Glenorchy would occur more slowly if at all.
Transport Infrastructure: With different visitor patterns and urban development, transport infrastructure priorities would shift. Instead of improving urban connectivity and public transport options, more investment might go toward road infrastructure connecting Hobart to wilderness areas and expanded parking facilities for self-drive tourists.

Cultural and Social Transformation

Global Positioning and Reputation

International Recognition: Without MONA and Dark Mofo putting Hobart on global "must-visit" lists, the city's international profile would remain relatively modest. Media coverage would focus primarily on Tasmania's wilderness rather than its capital city.
Brand Identity: By 2025, Hobart's brand would likely align more with conventional Tasmanian imagery—pristine nature, colonial heritage, and quality produce—rather than the surprising juxtaposition of those elements with cutting-edge art and festival culture that emerged in our timeline.
Arts and Culture Ecosystem: The substantial growth in Tasmania's creative industries (which grew by approximately 70% in the decade following MONA's opening in our timeline) would not materialize to the same extent. Without the anchor institution attracting creative professionals and providing exhibition opportunities, Tasmania would likely continue experiencing a net outflow of creative talent to mainland cities.

Community and Identity Shifts

Demographic Composition: The population influx that Hobart experienced—particularly of younger professionals, artists, and entrepreneurs attracted by the city's cultural cachet—would be significantly reduced. Census data shows that between 2011 and 2021 in our timeline, the proportion of Hobart residents with university qualifications increased substantially, partly attributable to this migration pattern.
Civic Identity and Pride: The transformation of Hobart's self-image—from a place often defined by what it lacked compared to mainland cities to one with a distinctive cultural identity—would not occur in the same way. Community surveys in our timeline showed marked increases in civic pride and optimism following MONA's establishment; these shifts would be less pronounced.
Cultural Debates: The provocative art and performances that sparked community debates around censorship, artistic freedom, and cultural values in our timeline would be absent. While this might mean fewer controversies, it would also mean fewer opportunities for community reflection on values and identity.

Alternative Tourism Development Scenarios by 2025

Depending on which alternative strategies dominated, Hobart might develop along several possible paths:

Scenario 1: Cruise Tourism Dominance

If cruise tourism became the primary focus:

Port-City Transformation: By 2025, Hobart would be recognized as Australia's premier small-city cruise destination, handling upwards of 200 ships annually (compared to around 70 in our timeline).
Tourism Infrastructure: The waterfront would be dominated by cruise-related infrastructure, potentially including a dedicated terminal complex with retail and dining options specifically targeting cruise passengers.
Community Tensions: As seen in cities like Venice and Dubrovnik, significant community backlash might emerge against overtourism during peak cruise season, with residents experiencing disruption without commensurate economic benefits.
Environmental Impacts: The environmental footprint of increased cruise visitation would become a significant concern, potentially damaging Tasmania's clean, green image.

Scenario 2: Nature Gateway Strategy

If Hobart developed primarily as a gateway to wilderness:

Dispersal Infrastructure: The city would become highly efficient at moving visitors outward. Specialized transport hubs, equipment rental facilities, and logistics operations would become key features of the tourism economy.
Wilderness Pressure: Increased visitation to wilderness areas without the cultural attractions keeping visitors in Hobart would place greater pressure on Tasmania's natural assets, potentially leading to earlier implementation of visitor caps at popular sites.
Urban-Regional Balance: Economic benefits would be more evenly distributed between Hobart and regional areas, but the city itself might struggle to develop a distinctive identity beyond its gateway function.

Scenario 3: Heritage-Focused Development

If colonial heritage became the primary tourism emphasis:

Historic Precinct Investment: Significant investment in Battery Point, Salamanca, and historic buildings would create a more comprehensive heritage tourism experience.
Reproduction vs. Authenticity: Tensions might emerge between authentic preservation and commodified "heritage experiences" designed for tourism consumption.
Limited Market Appeal: While appealing to certain demographics, this strategy would likely fail to attract younger visitors or repeat visitation, limiting overall market growth.

Global Context and Competitive Position

By 2025, this alternate Hobart would occupy a different position in the global tourism landscape:

Competitive Set: Rather than being compared to cultural hotspots like Bilbao or Wellington, Hobart would be positioned alongside other regional gateway cities or smaller heritage destinations.
Vulnerability to Trends: Without its distinctive cultural positioning, Hobart would be more vulnerable to changing tourism trends and more directly in competition with similar destinations offering comparable wilderness and heritage experiences.
Resilience Factors: The more conventional tourism development might provide greater short-term stability but less resilience to major disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic, which in our timeline saw cultural tourism recover more quickly than mass tourism segments.

By 2025, this alternate Hobart would still be a pleasant and moderately successful tourism destination, but it would lack the distinctive character, international recognition, and cultural vibrancy that has defined the city's remarkable transformation in our timeline. The opportunity cost of the path not taken would be measured not just in visitor numbers and dollars, but in community vitality, creative expression, and global relevance.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Maria Chen, Professor of Cultural Economics at the University of Melbourne, offers this perspective: "The 'MONA effect' in Hobart represents one of the most striking examples globally of how cultural investment can transform a city's economic trajectory. In an alternate timeline without MONA, we would likely see Hobart following a more conventional tourism development path similar to many regional Australian cities. The economic numbers might not look dramatically different in terms of total visitor volume, but the composition would be entirely different—fewer international visitors, lower yield per visitor, less diversified spending patterns. What's particularly interesting is how MONA catalyzed broader private sector investment. Without that catalyst, even with strong government support for tourism, Hobart would almost certainly not have experienced the creative industry growth we've seen. The opportunity cost would be measured not just in immediate tourism dollars but in long-term economic diversification and resilience."

Professor James Williams, Director of the Center for Sustainable Tourism at Cornell University, provides a contrasting analysis: "There's a tendency to romanticize the MONA-led transformation of Hobart while overlooking some of the challenges and limitations of this model. In an alternate timeline where Hobart pursued more conventional tourism strategies, we might see more equitable distribution of benefits throughout Tasmania. Cultural tourism tends to concentrate economic activity in urban centers, while nature-based and regional tourism disperses visitors and expenditure more widely. Additionally, focusing on cruise tourism or wilderness experiences might have resulted in earlier attention to carrying capacity issues and sustainability frameworks. The cultural tourism boom in our timeline led to rapid growth that created housing affordability challenges and periods of overtourism without corresponding infrastructure development. An alternate path might have involved slower but potentially more sustainable growth patterns. The question isn't just 'more tourism or less' but rather what kind of tourism best serves the long-term interests of the entire community."

Dr. Leilani Tiatia, Research Fellow in Urban Planning at the University of Tasmania, examines the community implications: "What's often overlooked in discussions of Hobart's tourism development is the impact on local identity and sense of place. In our timeline, MONA and Dark Mofo created new forms of community engagement with public space, but also generated tensions around who defines local culture. In an alternate timeline without these institutions, we would likely see different community dynamics emerging. Traditional forms of Tasmanian identity might remain more dominant in public discourse, with less of the cultural disruption that MONA introduced. Aboriginal cultural perspectives might either receive less attention without the platform that contemporary arts provided, or conversely, might develop through different channels focused more directly on connection to country. The pace of demographic change would be slower, potentially allowing for more gradual adaptation of community identity rather than the relatively rapid shifts we've witnessed. Neither path is inherently superior—they represent different approaches to the fundamental question of how tourism development shapes not just economies but communities and cultural identities."