Alternate Timelines

What If Islam Never Emerged?

• Alternate Timelines Team • 16 min read
Historical Religious Political Cultural
islam muhammad arabia byzantine empire sassanid persia religious history middle east monotheism

Exploring the alternate timeline where Muhammad never founded Islam in the 7th century, radically transforming the religious, political, and cultural landscape of the Middle East and beyond.

The Actual History

In the early 7th century CE, the Arabian Peninsula was a diverse landscape of tribal societies, trading centers, and competing religious beliefs. Polytheism was widespread, with various Arabian tribes worshipping local deities, while Jewish and Christian communities existed throughout the region. The two dominant powers surrounding Arabia were the Byzantine (Eastern Roman) Empire to the northwest and the Sassanid Persian Empire to the northeast, both exhausted from centuries of warfare against each other.

Into this world, Muhammad ibn Abdullah was born around 570 CE in Mecca, a significant trading center and home to the Kaaba, a shrine housing numerous religious idols. Orphaned at a young age, Muhammad became a merchant and was known for his honesty and thoughtfulness. According to Islamic tradition, in 610 CE, at about age 40, Muhammad received his first revelation from the angel Gabriel in a cave on Mount Hira near Mecca. These revelations, which continued until Muhammad's death in 632 CE, would eventually be compiled into the Quran.

Muhammad began preaching monotheism and social reform, directly challenging Mecca's religious and economic establishment. Facing persecution, in 622 CE Muhammad and his followers emigrated to Yathrib (later renamed Medina)—an event known as the Hijra that marks the beginning of the Islamic calendar. In Medina, Muhammad established the first Muslim community (ummah), created a constitution, and began to attract converts and allies.

After a series of conflicts with Meccan forces, Muhammad eventually returned triumphantly to Mecca in 630 CE, cleansed the Kaaba of idols, and established Islam as the dominant religion in Arabia. By his death in 632 CE, most of the Arabian Peninsula had accepted Islamic rule.

In the decades following Muhammad's death, his successors (caliphs) led remarkable military campaigns that conquered vast territories. The Rashidun Caliphate (632-661 CE) expanded into the Levant, Egypt, and parts of Persia. The subsequent Umayyad Caliphate (661-750 CE) extended Islamic rule across North Africa, into Spain, and further east into Central Asia and parts of India. The Islamic Golden Age flourished particularly under the Abbasid Caliphate (750-1258 CE), producing significant advances in mathematics, astronomy, medicine, philosophy, and other fields.

Islam's rapid expansion fundamentally altered world history. The Byzantine Empire lost its richest provinces in the Levant, Egypt, and North Africa, while the Sassanid Empire collapsed entirely. Trade networks were reoriented, Greek and Persian learning was preserved and expanded upon, and new architectural styles emerged. Islamic civilization served as a crucial bridge between ancient knowledge and the European Renaissance. By the 21st century, Islam has become the world's second-largest religion with approximately 1.9 billion adherents across diverse cultures and regions.

The Point of Divergence

What if Muhammad never founded Islam? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where the religion that would reshape vast swaths of the world never emerges at all.

Several plausible divergences could lead to this outcome. First, Muhammad might have died young, perhaps during the "Year of the Elephant" (around 570 CE) when, according to tradition, Abraha, the Aksumite viceroy of Yemen, attempted to destroy the Kaaba. An alternate scenario involves Muhammad remaining a respected but ordinary merchant in Mecca, never experiencing the revelations that would transform him into a prophet. Perhaps in this timeline, the meditative experiences at Mount Hira take a different form or are interpreted by Muhammad as personal spiritual insights rather than divine revelations requiring broader dissemination.

Another possibility centers on the critical period of early rejection. In our timeline, Muhammad's message initially gained little traction, and he faced severe persecution in Mecca. Had this opposition been even more effective—perhaps through his execution or permanent exile to a remote region without supportive converts—the movement might have been extinguished before gaining momentum.

The Hijra to Medina represented a crucial turning point for early Islam. In this alternate timeline, perhaps the people of Yathrib never invite Muhammad to serve as an arbitrator for their tribal disputes, or the migration fails due to Meccan interception of the travelers. Without the sanctuary and base of operations that Medina provided, Muhammad might have remained a minor religious figure with a small following, unable to gain political or military influence.

In all these scenarios, the polytheistic traditions of Arabia would continue, perhaps gradually evolving through contact with Judaism, Christianity, and Zoroastrianism, but without the revolutionary monotheistic movement that unified the peninsula and launched centuries of conquest and cultural development. The absence of Islam would create a profound vacuum in world history, with ramifications extending from religious beliefs and geopolitical boundaries to scientific advancement and artistic expression.

Immediate Aftermath

Arabian Peninsula

Without Muhammad's unifying religious message, the Arabian Peninsula would likely have continued its pre-Islamic patterns of tribal divisions and shifting alliances. The Quraysh tribe would maintain control of Mecca and the lucrative pilgrimage trade centered around the polytheistic Kaaba. Other significant tribes like the Banu Khazraj and Banu Aws in Yathrib (Medina) would continue their intermittent conflicts without Muhammad's arbitration providing a path to peace.

The absence of Islam would leave a religious landscape characterized by indigenous Arabian polytheism alongside growing Christian and Jewish communities. Christianity was already making inroads in the region, particularly in Yemen, where the Aksumite Empire had established influence, and among certain northern Arabian tribes connected to Byzantine Syria. Judaism maintained strong communities in Yathrib, Khaybar, and Yemen. Without Islam's arrival, these monotheistic faiths would continue their gradual expansion, but likely in a syncretic form that incorporated local traditions.

Economically, the trading networks connecting Arabia to Byzantium, Persia, and East Africa would continue but without the dramatic expansion and reorientation that occurred under Muslim rule. Mecca would remain an important but regional commercial center rather than becoming the spiritual heart of a global religion.

Byzantine-Sassanid Relations

The early 7th century saw the Byzantine and Sassanid Persian empires locked in a devastating series of conflicts, culminating in Emperor Heraclius's successful Byzantine counteroffensive (622-628 CE) against Sassanid expansionism. In our timeline, both empires were severely weakened by these wars, making them vulnerable to the unexpected rise of Arab armies unified by Islamic fervor.

Without this new threat, both empires would have entered a period of recovery and rebuilding. The Byzantine Empire under Heraclius had successfully reclaimed Syria, Palestine, and Egypt from Persian occupation. Heraclius's religious reforms, attempting to bridge theological differences within Christianity through Monothelitism (the doctrine that Christ had two natures but one will), might have had more time to take root without the distraction of Arab invasions.

The Sassanid Empire faced greater internal challenges following its defeat, with succession struggles after the overthrow of King Khosrow II. Nevertheless, without the Islamic conquests, the empire would likely have stabilized under a new dynasty or reforming ruler, preserving the Persian imperial tradition and Zoroastrianism as its state religion for centuries longer.

Religious Developments

Christianity in the 7th century was still reconciling significant theological controversies. The Chalcedonian position (accepting Christ as having two natures, human and divine) dominated in the Byzantine Empire, while Miaphysite Christianity (emphasizing Christ's unified divine-human nature) prevailed in Egypt and parts of Syria. The Nestorian Church (stressing the distinction between Christ's human and divine natures) flourished in Mesopotamia and Persia.

Without Islam's emergence, these Christian divisions would continue to evolve along established trajectories. The Byzantine Empire would likely maintain pressure for religious conformity in its territories, potentially driving further alienation of Miaphysite communities in Egypt and Syria. Meanwhile, Zoroastrianism would continue as Persia's dominant faith, though with growing Nestorian Christian minorities.

Judaism, having lost its political center with the failed Bar Kokhba revolt against Rome (132-136 CE), had adapted to diaspora existence. Major Jewish communities flourished in Mesopotamia under Sassanid rule and existed throughout the Byzantine Empire despite periodic persecutions. Without Islam, these communities would continue developing their theological and legal traditions, particularly through the Babylonian rabbinic academies that produced the Talmud.

North Africa and the Mediterranean

North Africa in the early 7th century was firmly within the Byzantine sphere, though governance was often indirect through local elites. Berber populations maintained significant autonomy in interior regions. Without the Islamic conquests that historically swept through the region from the 640s to 710s CE, North Africa would remain culturally connected to the Mediterranean Christian world.

The Visigothic Kingdom in Iberia, which historically fell to Islamic forces by 711 CE, would continue its development as a post-Roman Christian state. The kingdom struggled with tensions between its Arian Gothic nobility and Chalcedonian Romano-Hispanic population until officially converting to Chalcedonian Christianity in 589 CE. Without the Islamic conquest, Visigothic Spain would likely have continued evolving toward greater integration of its populations while maintaining ties with the broader Mediterranean Christian world.

Long-term Impact

Religious Geography

Without Islam, the religious map of the world would be dramatically altered. Regions that historically became predominantly Muslim—including the Middle East, North Africa, parts of South and Southeast Asia, and portions of sub-Saharan Africa—would develop along entirely different religious trajectories.

The Middle East and North Africa

The Middle East would likely remain a diverse religious landscape with Christianity and Zoroastrianism as the dominant faiths. Christianity, already well-established in Egypt, Syria, and Mesopotamia before Islam, would continue its expansion but with distinct regional expressions:

  • Egypt and North Africa: Coptic Christianity would remain the dominant faith in Egypt, while North Africa would retain its Latin Christian character with strong Berber influences. Without the Arabization that accompanied Islamization, indigenous North African cultures and languages would maintain stronger continuity with their pre-Islamic forms.

  • The Levant and Anatolia: These regions would remain predominantly Byzantine Orthodox, though with significant Miaphysite communities. Jerusalem would continue as a predominantly Christian city, though with important Jewish communities. The Jewish diaspora might eventually establish stronger presences in the Holy Land without Islamic rule restricting such settlement.

  • Mesopotamia and Persia: This region presents a fascinating religious counterfactual. The Sassanid Empire, though weakened, might have preserved Zoroastrianism as a major world religion rather than seeing it reduced to a small minority faith as occurred historically. Alternatively, if the Sassanids fell to another force, Nestorian Christianity—already making significant inroads among Persian populations—might have eventually become the dominant religion in parts of the region.

Central and South Asia

Without Islam's eastward expansion, the religious development of Central and South Asia would follow different paths:

  • Central Asia: The Turkic and Iranian peoples of Central Asia, who historically converted to Islam, might have adopted Buddhism (already present along the Silk Road), various forms of Christianity (particularly Nestorianism), or maintained their traditional shamanistic practices longer.

  • South Asia: The Indian subcontinent would never experience the Delhi Sultanate or Mughal Empire. Hinduism would develop without the competitive pressure and cultural exchange that contact with Islam historically provided. Buddhism, which was already declining in India by the 7th century, might have continued this trajectory or found new patterns of coexistence with Hindu traditions.

Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia

These regions, which saw significant Islamic conversion through trade networks rather than conquest, would likely have different religious profiles:

  • East Africa: Without Arab Muslim traders establishing coastal settlements, East African coastal cultures might have developed stronger ties with Christian Ethiopia or continued indigenous religious traditions longer.

  • West Africa: The great Sahelian empires (Ghana, Mali, Songhai) would develop without Islamic influence, potentially maintaining traditional religious systems or perhaps eventually encountering Christianity through different vectors.

  • Southeast Asia: Maritime Southeast Asia, which historically saw gradual Islamization from the 13th century onward, might have continued its syncretic blend of Hindu-Buddhist practices or been more comprehensively influenced by Chinese religious traditions.

Political and Cultural Developments

Arabian Peninsula

Without Muhammad's unification, Arabia would likely have remained politically fragmented much longer. Eventually, the region might have been partially absorbed into Byzantine or Persian spheres of influence. The Arabic language, while remaining important regionally, would never become the global linguistic and cultural force it did through Islamic expansion.

Byzantine Empire

The Byzantine Empire, spared the loss of its wealthiest provinces (Egypt, Syria, and North Africa), would likely have remained the dominant Mediterranean power much longer. While still facing challenges from European powers to the west and steppe nomads to the north, its trajectory would be dramatically different:

  • Territorial Integrity: Retaining control of the Levant and Egypt would preserve access to critical agricultural resources and tax revenue.
  • Religious Development: Orthodox Christianity would maintain its centers in Alexandria, Antioch, and Jerusalem, potentially leading to different theological developments.
  • Cultural Impact: Greek would remain the predominant language of eastern Mediterranean high culture for centuries longer.

Without the existential threat posed by Islamic expansion, Byzantium might have directed more attention toward Europe, potentially limiting the independence of the rising Western kingdoms or more thoroughly reincorporating Italy into its domain.

Western Europe

Western Europe's development without Islam would follow significantly different contours:

  • Mediterranean Continuity: Without Islamic control of the southern Mediterranean, trade routes between Europe, North Africa, and the Levant would maintain greater continuity with late Roman patterns.
  • Frankish Development: The Frankish realms, which historically benefited from their position as defenders against Islamic expansion into Europe, might have developed along different lines without this role.
  • Intellectual Heritage: The transmission of classical Greek texts to Western Europe, historically facilitated through Islamic scholarship, would follow different channels—perhaps more directly through continued Byzantine influence.

Persia and Central Asia

The fate of the Sassanid Empire remains one of the most intriguing questions in this alternate timeline. Having survived its wars with Byzantium but severely weakened, several possibilities emerge:

  • Imperial Recovery: A revitalized Sassanid dynasty might have reasserted Persian imperial traditions, maintaining Zoroastrianism as a major world religion.
  • Alternative Conquest: Without Islamic Arabs, another group—perhaps Turkic peoples from Central Asia—might have eventually conquered Persia, introducing different cultural and religious influences.
  • Religious Transformation: Nestorian Christianity, already significant in Mesopotamia, might have eventually displaced Zoroastrianism as the dominant Persian religion through gradual conversion rather than conquest.

Scientific and Intellectual History

The absence of the Islamic Golden Age (8th-14th centuries) would profoundly alter intellectual history. Islamic scholars historically preserved, translated, and expanded upon Greek, Persian, and Indian knowledge in mathematics, astronomy, medicine, chemistry, and philosophy.

Without this tradition, scientific and philosophical development would follow different trajectories:

  • Preservation of Classical Knowledge: The works of Aristotle, Ptolemy, Galen, and other classical thinkers might have been preserved through different channels—primarily Byzantine and Nestorian Christian scholars—but potentially with different emphases and gaps.
  • Mathematical Innovations: Developments like the refinement of algebra and the popularization of "Arabic" (actually Indian) numerals might have occurred through different channels or been delayed.
  • Scientific Method: The empirical approaches pioneered by scholars like Ibn al-Haytham (Alhazen) would emerge through different traditions or at different times.

Artistic and Architectural History

Islamic artistic and architectural traditions—with their emphasis on geometric patterns, calligraphy, and non-representational art—would never develop. Instead:

  • Middle Eastern architecture might have continued Byzantine and Sassanid traditions, with their emphasis on domes, arches, and (in the Byzantine case) representational religious art.
  • The great mosques that historically transformed the urban landscapes of Cairo, Damascus, Cordoba, and Istanbul would never be built. These cities would instead feature cathedrals, churches, or Zoroastrian fire temples.
  • Musical traditions across North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia would develop along entirely different lines without the influence of Islamic cultural practices.

Modern Global Politics

By the 21st century, the geopolitical landscape would be unrecognizable compared to our timeline:

  • The modern Middle East, shaped by the fall of the Ottoman Empire and Western colonialism, would have entirely different political boundaries and identities.
  • Without the historical tension between Islamic and Christian civilizations, global political alignments would follow different fault lines.
  • Oil politics would unfold in a context where the Arabian Peninsula, Iran, and other oil-rich regions had entirely different political systems and international relationships.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Aisha Rahman, Professor of Comparative Religious Studies at Oxford University, offers this perspective: "The absence of Islam would have created a religious vacuum in the Middle East that other traditions would have filled, but likely in a more fragmented way. Christianity, already divided between Orthodox, Miaphysite, and Nestorian expressions, might have continued fragmenting along regional and cultural lines. Alternatively, we might have seen new syncretic religious movements emerge, perhaps blending elements of Christianity, Zoroastrianism, and Arabian traditions. The monotheistic impulse evident in late antiquity suggests that even without Muhammad's revelations, the religious landscape was primed for transformative developments."

Professor Jonathan Berkey, historian specializing in medieval Islamic societies, suggests: "Without Islam, I believe we would have seen a very different trajectory for global knowledge transmission. The remarkable synthesis of Greek, Persian, Indian, and indigenous traditions that occurred under Islamic civilization would have been replaced by more siloed intellectual developments. Byzantine scholarship might have preserved more of the Greek tradition, but without the cross-fertilization with Persian and Indian knowledge that Islamic scholars facilitated. The Renaissance might have occurred later or taken a different form without the crucial transmission role played by Islamic centers of learning in Spain and Sicily."

Dr. Elena Kovalevskaya, expert in Byzantine studies, provides another view: "A Byzantine Empire that retained control of the Levant and Egypt would have remained the dominant Mediterranean power much longer, potentially into the modern era in some form. However, internal religious conflicts between Chalcedonian and Miaphysite Christians, which were historically overshadowed by the external Islamic threat, might have proved more divisive in this alternate timeline. I also believe the absence of Islamic pressure would have allowed Byzantium to focus more attention on Europe, potentially leading to a stronger reintegration of Italy and a more Greek-influenced European cultural development."

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