Alternate Timelines

What If Jacinda Ardern Never Resigned?

• Alternate Timelines Team • 14 min read
Political Contemporary Leadership Oceania
new zealand jacinda ardern labour party covid-19 pacific politics women in leadership elections

Exploring how New Zealand's political landscape, COVID recovery, and international standing would have evolved if Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had not stepped down in January 2023, reshaping the country's domestic and foreign policy trajectory.

The Actual History

On January 19, 2023, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern shocked the nation and the world by announcing her resignation, stating she no longer had "enough in the tank" to continue in the role. Her decision marked the end of a transformative period in New Zealand politics that had seen her lead the country through multiple crises while becoming a globally recognized political figure.

Ardern's Leadership (2017-2023)

Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister in October 2017, forming a coalition government between her Labour Party, New Zealand First, and the Green Party. At 37, she was the world's youngest female head of government at the time. Her premiership was defined by several key events and approaches:

  1. Crisis Management:

    • The 2019 Christchurch mosque shootings, after which she implemented swift gun control reforms and was praised for her empathetic response
    • The 2019 White Island volcanic eruption
    • The COVID-19 pandemic, where New Zealand's elimination strategy initially resulted in some of the world's lowest case and death rates

  2. Domestic Policy:

  3. Leadership Style:

    • Emphasis on kindness and empathy in politics
    • Direct communication through social media and regular press briefings
    • Balancing motherhood (giving birth while in office) with leadership

  4. International Standing:

    • Elevated global profile as a progressive leader
    • Advocacy for multilateralism and climate action
    • Leadership on the Christchurch Call to combat online extremism

Challenges and Declining Popularity

By late 2022, Ardern's government faced mounting challenges:

  1. COVID-19 Policy Shift: The transition from elimination to living with COVID-19 proved difficult, with lockdown fatigue and protests against vaccine mandates.

  2. Economic Pressures: Rising inflation, housing costs, and cost of living concerns eroded public support.

  3. Implementation Issues: Several flagship policies, including the KiwiBuild housing program, failed to meet targets.

  4. Political Polarization: Increasing political division and a rise in threats and harassment against Ardern personally.

Resignation and Aftermath

Ardern's resignation came with Labour trailing in the polls ahead of the October 2023 election. She was succeeded as Labour leader and Prime Minister by Chris Hipkins, who attempted to reset the government's agenda by focusing on "bread and butter" economic issues.

Despite this change in leadership, Labour lost the October 2023 election to a coalition led by the National Party under Christopher Luxon, with Labour's share of the vote falling significantly from its 2020 high.

Ardern's legacy remains complex—internationally acclaimed for her crisis leadership and compassionate approach, but domestically leaving office with declining popularity and mixed policy outcomes.

The Point of Divergence

In this alternate timeline, Jacinda Ardern decides in late 2022 to continue as Prime Minister despite the mounting pressures and challenges. Several factors contribute to this different decision:

Personal Resilience (December 2022)

In our timeline, Ardern cited exhaustion and burnout as key factors in her decision. In this alternate scenario:

  1. Renewed Energy: After the December 2022 holiday break, Ardern returns with renewed determination, having used the time to reflect and recharge.

  2. Support System: Enhanced personal and professional support systems are put in place, including:

    • Restructured prime ministerial office to reduce direct pressures
    • More delegation of routine responsibilities to senior ministers
    • Improved security arrangements to address harassment concerns

  3. Health Focus: Ardern adopts a more sustainable work-life balance, including:

    • Reduced international travel commitments
    • Regular mental health support
    • Protected family time

Strategic Reassessment (January 2023)

Rather than resigning, Ardern and her team conduct a comprehensive strategic reassessment:

  1. Policy Reset: The government launches a "Reset and Rebuild" agenda that:

    • Acknowledges challenges in the COVID-19 response while highlighting successes
    • Pivots to cost-of-living issues as the primary focus
    • Scales back or redesigns underperforming initiatives

  2. Communication Shift: Ardern adopts a more direct approach to addressing criticism:

    • More regular town hall meetings across the country
    • Targeted engagement with disillusioned voter groups
    • Candid acknowledgment of policy shortcomings while emphasizing achievements

  3. Electoral Strategy: Labour develops a clearer pathway to the 2023 election:

    • Emphasizing Ardern's crisis leadership experience as an asset for uncertain times
    • Contrasting her international standing with the opposition's relative inexperience
    • Focusing on completed achievements rather than ambitious new promises

This strategic pivot represents a significant departure from our timeline, where Ardern chose to step aside rather than lead Labour into another election.

Cabinet Reshuffle (February 2023)

To implement the new approach, Ardern announces a major cabinet reshuffle:

  1. Economic Team: A new economic team is appointed with a mandate to address inflation and cost-of-living concerns:

  2. Fresh Faces: Several newer MPs are elevated to cabinet to bring fresh energy:

    • Greater diversity in key positions
    • Promotion of MPs with business and economic backgrounds
    • Retirement of several ministers associated with underperforming portfolios

  3. Governance Structure: Implementation of a new governance approach:

    • Smaller, more focused cabinet committees
    • Regular implementation review sessions
    • Greater accountability mechanisms for delivery of key initiatives

This reshuffle signals both continuity in leadership and recognition of the need for change in approach.

Immediate Aftermath

Political Dynamics (February-June 2023)

Ardern's decision to remain creates significant shifts in New Zealand's political landscape:

  1. Opposition Recalibration: The National Party and ACT are forced to adjust their strategies:

    • Less focus on "post-Ardern" messaging
    • More direct engagement with Ardern's record and policies
    • Increased emphasis on economic credentials

  2. Public Response: Initial public reaction is mixed:

    • Core supporters energized by Ardern's decision to continue
    • Critics claim she is "clinging to power"
    • Gradual improvement in approval ratings as the new approach takes effect

  3. Labour Party Dynamics: Internal party dynamics evolve:

    • Some tensions with ambitious ministers who saw opportunity in a leadership change
    • Renewed party discipline around the reset agenda
    • Improved coordination between party organization and government

  4. Media Narrative: The media narrative gradually shifts:

    • From "embattled leader" to "comeback story" framing
    • Increased focus on policy substance rather than leadership speculation
    • International coverage highlighting Ardern's resilience

Policy Implementation (March-August 2023)

The government's reset agenda leads to several significant policy shifts:

  1. Inflation Response Package: A comprehensive inflation response is implemented:

    • Temporary reduction in fuel taxes
    • Expanded cost of living payments for low and middle-income households
    • Negotiated price caps on essential groceries
    • Rent stabilization measures

  2. Housing Reset: The housing approach is fundamentally revised:

    • KiwiBuild officially scaled back and redesigned
    • Expanded social housing construction
    • New incentives for medium-density development
    • Targeted support for first-home buyers

  3. COVID-19 Evolution: The COVID-19 approach continues to normalize:

    • Formal end to all remaining restrictions by April 2023
    • Transition of COVID-19 response into regular health system
    • Retention of key pandemic preparedness capabilities
    • Commission to examine lessons learned from the pandemic response

  4. Climate Implementation: Climate initiatives are reframed around economic opportunity:

These policy adjustments represent a more pragmatic, delivery-focused approach than the government's previous more aspirational agenda.

International Positioning (March-September 2023)

Ardern leverages her international standing in new ways:

  1. Trade Focus: Increased emphasis on trade and economic partnerships:

  2. Strategic Relationships: Careful balancing of strategic relationships:

    • Strengthened security cooperation with traditional allies while maintaining independent foreign policy
    • Pragmatic engagement with China focused on economic benefits while raising concerns on specific issues
    • Leadership on Pacific regional cooperation amid great power competition
    • Enhanced bilateral relationship with Australia despite political differences

  3. Global Platform: Selective use of Ardern's global profile:

    • Fewer international appearances but more strategic focus
    • Emphasis on concrete initiatives rather than symbolic leadership
    • Hosting of key international figures in New Zealand
    • Continued leadership on the Christchurch Call and online extremism issues

This international approach aims to translate Ardern's global standing into tangible benefits for New Zealand.

Long-term Impact

2023 Election Campaign and Outcome (September-October 2023)

The 2023 election unfolds very differently from our timeline:

  1. Campaign Dynamics:

    • Ardern runs a disciplined campaign emphasizing experience and delivery
    • National focuses on economic management and "time for change" messaging
    • More policy-focused debates than in our timeline
    • Higher voter engagement and turnout

  2. Election Results: The election produces a much closer result than in our timeline:

    • Labour secures 37% of the vote (versus 27% in our timeline)
    • National receives 36% (versus 38% in our timeline)
    • Green Party increases to 12% (versus 11% in our timeline)
    • ACT Party receives 8% (versus 9% in our timeline)
    • New Zealand First returns to parliament with 6% (versus 6% in our timeline)

  3. Government Formation: After negotiations, Ardern forms a coalition government:

    • Labour-Green coalition with New Zealand First support on confidence and supply
    • Narrower parliamentary majority than the 2020-2023 government
    • More detailed coalition agreements with specific delivery targets
    • Cabinet positions for Green and New Zealand First representatives in key areas

This result represents a significant achievement given the challenges faced by the government, though with a reduced majority reflecting public desire for adjustments to the government's approach.

Domestic Policy Evolution (2023-2025)

The third-term Ardern government adopts a more pragmatic, results-oriented approach:

  1. Economic Management:

    • Gradual reduction in inflation through coordinated fiscal and monetary policy
    • Targeted investment in productivity-enhancing infrastructure
    • Sectoral strategies for high-value exports
    • Balanced approach to public finances with debt reduction targets

  2. Social Policy:

    • Continued focus on child poverty reduction with more targeted interventions
    • Healthcare system reforms addressing pandemic-revealed weaknesses
    • Education emphasis on skills for changing economy
    • Welfare system simplification and modernization

  3. Environmental Initiatives:

    • Accelerated climate adaptation planning
    • Practical implementation of emissions reduction commitments
    • Freshwater quality improvement programs
    • Biodiversity protection balanced with economic considerations

  4. Constitutional Developments:

This policy agenda reflects both continuity with Ardern's values and adaptation to political and economic realities.

International Position (2023-2025)

New Zealand's international standing evolves under Ardern's continued leadership:

  1. Pacific Leadership:

    • Enhanced New Zealand role in Pacific regional architecture
    • Climate finance initiatives for vulnerable Pacific nations
    • Security cooperation addressing non-traditional threats
    • Economic integration supporting Pacific resilience

  2. Great Power Relations:

    • Maintenance of independent foreign policy amid US-China tensions
    • Balanced economic relationship with China while addressing specific concerns
    • Deepened security cooperation with traditional partners without full alignment
    • Leadership on middle power diplomacy

  3. Global Initiatives:

    • Expansion of the Christchurch Call into broader digital governance
    • Climate diplomacy focused on implementation rather than new commitments
    • Trade initiatives promoting sustainable and inclusive approaches
    • Continued advocacy for multilateral rules-based order

  4. Ardern's Global Role:

    • More selective international engagements focused on New Zealand interests
    • Development of a distinct "Ardern doctrine" on progressive international relations
    • Mentorship of emerging progressive leaders globally
    • Planning for post-political international role

This international approach balances New Zealand's interests with Ardern's personal standing and values.

Political Legacy and Transition (2025-2026)

As her third term progresses, Ardern begins planning for an eventual transition:

  1. Leadership Development:

    • Deliberate mentoring of potential successors
    • Gradual delegation of more responsibilities to senior ministers
    • Public signaling of transition planning
    • Focus on institutional strength beyond personal leadership

  2. Legacy Consolidation:

    • Completion of key signature initiatives
    • Documentation of crisis management approaches for future governments
    • Establishment of enduring institutional reforms
    • Bipartisan engagement on long-term national challenges

  3. Planned Departure:

    • Announcement in early 2026 of intention to step down mid-term
    • Orderly leadership transition process
    • Comprehensive handover to successor
    • Dignified departure on her own terms

  4. Post-Political Role:

    • Transition to international role focusing on progressive governance
    • Establishment of leadership foundation for emerging leaders
    • Selective domestic engagements supporting successor
    • Academic and writing projects documenting her governance approach

This planned transition stands in stark contrast to the more abrupt resignation in our timeline, allowing for greater continuity and institutional memory.

Expert Opinions

Professor Jennifer Curtin, Political Scientist at the University of Auckland, observes:

"Had Ardern continued as Prime Minister, we would likely have seen a more pragmatic third term focused on delivery rather than transformation. The 'stardust' of her early leadership had settled, but her crisis management experience remained a significant asset.

The interesting counterfactual is whether her decision to continue would have arrested Labour's polling decline. While some voters had clearly made up their minds, Ardern's personal appeal remained stronger than her party's, and a reset focused on economic concerns might have been enough to secure a narrow victory.

The international dimension is particularly fascinating. A third-term Ardern would have been one of the most experienced democratic leaders globally, potentially giving New Zealand outsized influence on specific issues like climate diplomacy and digital governance."

Dr. Richard Shaw, Politics Professor at Massey University, notes:

"The psychological aspect of this scenario is compelling. Political leadership exacts an enormous toll, and Ardern's decision to step down citing burnout was unprecedented in its honesty. A decision to continue would have required not just personal resilience but significant structural changes to how the prime ministership functions.

In policy terms, a third Ardern government would likely have been more incremental than transformational. The constraints of coalition politics, economic challenges, and implementation realities would have tempered ambitions. However, the continuity of leadership through multiple crises might have provided valuable stability during uncertain global times.

The gender dimension also deserves consideration. Female political leaders often face disproportionate scrutiny and harassment. Ardern's continuation in the face of this would have sent a powerful message about women's endurance in political leadership."

Dr. Bronwyn Hayward, Political Scientist and Sustainability Expert, comments:

"Climate policy is where we might have seen the most significant differences in a continued Ardern government. The implementation phase of climate commitments is often the most challenging, and leadership continuity can be crucial.

Ardern's international standing gave New Zealand a platform on climate issues disproportionate to its size. A third term might have seen this leverage used more strategically to secure concrete benefits for New Zealand's transition and for vulnerable Pacific neighbors.

The most interesting aspect is how Ardern might have evolved as a leader. Third-term prime ministers typically become more confident in their decision-making and more focused on legacy. We might have seen a more decisive Ardern willing to make difficult choices that earlier in her premiership she might have deferred or compromised on."

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