What If Julian the Apostate Lived Longer?

The Actual History

Flavius Claudius Julianus, known to history as Julian the Apostate, was Roman Emperor from 361 to 363 CE. His brief reign represented a significant turning point in Roman religious history, as he was the last non-Christian emperor and actively worked to restore traditional Greco-Roman religious practices after decades of imperial support for Christianity.

Born in 331 CE, Julian was a member of the Constantinian dynasty, the nephew of Constantine the Great who had famously converted to Christianity and began the process of transforming the Roman Empire into a Christian state. Despite his family connections, Julian's early life was marked by tragedy and insecurity. When Constantine died in 337 CE, a purge of potential dynastic rivals left Julian's immediate family dead, with only Julian and his half-brother Gallus spared, likely due to their young age.

Julian was raised in effective exile, educated in Christian environments but developing a deep appreciation for classical Greek philosophy and literature. He secretly converted to Neoplatonic paganism around 351 CE, though he maintained an outward appearance of Christian devotion while Constantine's sons ruled the empire. In 355 CE, Emperor Constantius II appointed Julian as Caesar (junior emperor) and sent him to Gaul to deal with barbarian incursions. To the surprise of many, Julian proved an effective military commander and administrator, winning significant victories against Germanic tribes and reforming the provincial government.

When Constantius II ordered Julian to send his best troops to the eastern frontier in 360 CE, Julian's soldiers proclaimed him Augustus (senior emperor) in Paris. This act of usurpation might have led to civil war, but Constantius died of natural causes in November 361 CE while marching west to confront Julian, leaving Julian as sole emperor.

Upon assuming full imperial power, Julian immediately revealed his religious convictions. He issued an edict of religious tolerance, allowing all faiths to practice openly, but simultaneously began a comprehensive program to restore traditional Greco-Roman religion. He reopened pagan temples, restored their funding and properties, and revoked the special privileges that the Christian church had accumulated under his predecessors. Julian also attempted to reform traditional religion, incorporating elements of philosophical sophistication and organizational structure inspired by Christianity itself.

Julian's religious policies were not merely personal preference but reflected his philosophical conviction that the traditional gods had been responsible for Rome's greatness, and that the empire's recent troubles stemmed from abandoning them. He did not generally persecute Christians directly, preferring instead to marginalize Christianity through administrative and cultural means. One of his most controversial policies prohibited Christians from teaching classical literature, arguing that those who despised the gods should not profit from teaching texts that honored them.

In 363 CE, Julian launched a major military campaign against the Sassanid Persian Empire. Initially successful, the campaign eventually ran into difficulties. On June 26, 363 CE, during a minor skirmish, Julian was wounded by a spear that pierced his ribs and damaged his liver. According to historical accounts, he died during the night, after philosophical discussions with his friends that echoed the death of Socrates.

Julian's death at age 31, after only 18 months as sole emperor, abruptly ended his religious restoration project. His successor, Jovian, immediately reversed Julian's religious policies and reestablished Christianity's privileged position. Within decades, Emperor Theodosius I would make Christianity the official state religion and begin actively suppressing pagan practices.

Julian's brief reign thus represents the last systematic attempt to preserve the traditional religious culture of the Greco-Roman world against the rising tide of Christianity. His failure and early death ensured that Christianity would become the dominant religious and cultural force in Europe for the next millennium and beyond. To Christians, he became known as "the Apostate" for his rejection of the faith, while to pagans, he represented a final, failed hope for their traditions' survival.

The Point of Divergence

What if Julian the Apostate had not died from his wound during the Persian campaign of 363 CE? Let's imagine a scenario where the spear that struck him caused a less severe injury, or where his physicians were able to successfully treat the wound.

In this alternate timeline, Julian survives the Persian campaign and negotiates a peace treaty with the Sassanids that, while not delivering the decisive victory he had hoped for, allows him to withdraw his army with honor and return to the heart of the empire. Having survived this near-death experience, Julian might have interpreted his recovery as a sign of divine favor, reinforcing his conviction that the gods were supporting his mission to restore traditional religion.

With his immediate military challenges addressed, Julian would have had the opportunity to continue and expand his religious policies for years or even decades. As a relatively young emperor at just 32 years old, he could potentially have ruled for another 20-30 years, providing ample time to implement his vision for a revitalized pagan Rome.

This alternate timeline explores how European and world history might have developed if Julian's pagan restoration had continued long enough to seriously challenge Christianity's growing dominance, potentially creating a very different religious landscape in Europe and beyond. Would Julian's policies have successfully reversed Christianity's momentum, or would they have merely delayed the inevitable? How would a longer pagan revival have affected the development of religious institutions, philosophy, art, and politics in the late Roman world and beyond?

Immediate Aftermath

Religious Landscape Transformation

The immediate effect of Julian's survival would have been the continuation and intensification of his religious policies:

Expanded Pagan Restoration: With more time to implement his vision, Julian would likely have accelerated the reopening and refunding of traditional temples throughout the empire. The physical infrastructure of paganism, which had begun to decay under Christian emperors, would have been revitalized.
Pagan Reformation: Julian would have continued his efforts to reform traditional religion, creating a more organized, hierarchical pagan priesthood modeled partly on Christian ecclesiastical structures. His "Hellenic" version of paganism, with its emphasis on philosophical monotheism centered on the Sun (Helios) while accommodating traditional polytheistic worship, would have gained institutional support.
Educational Reforms: Julian's controversial policy barring Christians from teaching classical literature would have had time to take effect, gradually shifting the educational system back toward pagan control and potentially creating a new generation of elites more sympathetic to traditional religion.
Christian Response: The Christian community would have faced difficult choices. Some might have returned to paganism for practical reasons, while others would have strengthened their resistance. Christian writers and theologians would have developed more sophisticated apologetics against Julian's philosophical paganism.

Political Developments

Julian's continued reign would have had significant political implications:

Administrative Reforms: Julian had already begun reducing the bloated imperial bureaucracy and addressing corruption. With more time, these reforms might have improved imperial governance and fiscal health.
Succession Planning: As Julian aged, the question of succession would have become critical. Having no children of his own, he would have needed to adopt or appoint a successor who shared his religious vision to ensure the continuation of his policies.
Military Reorganization: Julian was an effective military commander who understood frontier defense. A longer reign might have allowed him to strengthen Rome's military position against both Persian and Germanic threats.
Provincial Relations: Julian's tours of the provinces and his reputation for justice and moderation might have improved relations between the central government and provincial populations, potentially reducing separatist tendencies.

Cultural and Intellectual Shifts

Julian's survival would have significantly impacted the intellectual climate of the late Roman world:

Neoplatonic Renaissance: Julian's court attracted Neoplatonic philosophers like Maximus of Ephesus. A longer reign would have elevated these thinkers to positions of greater influence, potentially leading to a more robust philosophical revival.
Literary Developments: As an author himself (several of Julian's writings survive today), Julian patronized literature that reflected classical values. This patronage would have encouraged a new wave of pagan literary production.
Artistic Revival: Religious art would have reflected Julian's preferences, with a revival of classical forms and subjects in sculpture, painting, and architecture, potentially creating a distinctive "Julianic" artistic style.
Historical Writing: The historical narrative of Rome's development would have been reframed, with Christian historians marginalized and pagan perspectives elevated in official accounts.

Regional Reactions

Different parts of the empire would have responded differently to Julian's extended rule:

Eastern Provinces, with their strong Hellenistic traditions, might have more readily embraced Julian's Hellenic paganism, especially in urban centers with strong philosophical traditions like Athens, Alexandria, and Antioch.
Western Provinces, where Christianity had made significant inroads among the elite, might have shown more resistance, creating a potential religious divide between East and West.
Egypt might have seen a significant revival of its ancient religious traditions, which Julian respected, potentially creating a renaissance of Egyptian religious practices adapted to the Hellenic framework.
The Holy Land would have been a particular flashpoint, as Julian had already begun a provocative project to rebuild the Jewish Temple in Jerusalem, explicitly challenging Christian prophecy. The completion of this project would have had profound symbolic significance.

Long-term Impact

Religious Evolution

Over decades, Julian's policies would have fundamentally altered the religious trajectory of the Roman world:

Institutionalized Philosophical Paganism: Julian's reformed paganism would have developed into a more coherent religious system, with a hierarchical priesthood, standardized practices, and a philosophical theology drawing on Neoplatonism. This "Julianic paganism" might have evolved into a distinct religious tradition that could compete effectively with Christianity.
Christian Adaptation: Faced with imperial disfavor for an extended period, Christianity would have been forced to adapt. It might have become more insular and apocalyptic, or conversely, might have developed more sophisticated philosophical defenses and accommodations with pagan culture. The religion would likely have remained significant but might not have achieved the dominance it historically did.
Jewish Renaissance: Julian's favorable attitude toward Jews and his project to rebuild the Temple could have led to a significant revival of Jewish life in the Roman Empire, potentially creating a very different trajectory for Jewish-Christian relations and Jewish history in Europe.
Religious Pluralism: Julian's policy of religious tolerance, if maintained by his successors, might have established a precedent for pluralism rather than the religious uniformity that historically characterized late antiquity and the medieval period.

Political and Institutional Developments

The Roman state itself would have evolved differently under extended pagan leadership:

Imperial-Religious Relations: Without the close alliance between church and state that developed historically, different models of the relationship between political and religious authority might have emerged. The emperor might have maintained the traditional role of pontifex maximus (chief priest) rather than ceding religious leadership to an independent ecclesiastical hierarchy.
Educational Institutions: The classical educational system, based on the Greek and Latin classics, would have continued without the Christian reinterpretation it historically underwent. Educational institutions might have evolved along lines more similar to the philosophical schools of antiquity.
Legal Development: Roman law would have continued to develop without the influence of Christian ethics that historically shaped it, potentially maintaining different attitudes toward issues like family structure, sexuality, and religious crimes.
Imperial Continuity: A more successful late Roman Empire under Julian and like-minded successors might have delayed or even prevented the empire's fragmentation, potentially avoiding or significantly altering the historical "fall" of the Western Roman Empire.

Cultural and Intellectual Legacy

The cultural trajectory of Europe would have been dramatically different:

Philosophical Tradition: Without the historical dominance of Christian theology, European philosophical thought might have continued to develop along more diverse lines, with Neoplatonism, Stoicism, Epicureanism, and other ancient schools remaining vital intellectual traditions.
Scientific Inquiry: Julian and his Neoplatonic advisors valued natural philosophy. A continued pagan intellectual tradition might have maintained greater continuity with ancient scientific approaches, potentially avoiding some of the tensions between faith and reason that characterized parts of the Christian Middle Ages.
Literary Canon: The literary canon would have developed differently, with works now lost potentially preserved, and different emphases in what was considered important to copy and study. Pagan epic, drama, and philosophy might have remained central rather than being marginalized by Christian literature.
Artistic Development: Visual arts would have continued to draw on classical models and themes rather than developing along the lines of Christian iconography that historically dominated European art for centuries.

Geopolitical Consequences

The broader geopolitical map might have been reshaped:

Roman-Persian Relations: Julian had a particular interest in the East and Persian affairs. A longer reign might have established a different pattern of relations with the Sassanid Empire, potentially avoiding some of the devastating Roman-Persian conflicts that weakened both empires before the rise of Islam.
Response to Germanic Migrations: Julian had proven effective in managing frontier defense. A stronger, more stable Roman Empire under his leadership might have responded more effectively to the population movements that historically contributed to the Western Empire's fall.
Mediterranean Unity: The Mediterranean basin might have remained more culturally and politically unified without the historical divisions between a Christianized West and an eventually Islamized South and East.
Islamic Expansion: The conditions that historically facilitated the rapid Islamic conquests of the 7th century—including religious dissension in Byzantine territories and exhaustion from Byzantine-Sassanid wars—might never have developed, potentially altering or even preventing the rise of Islam as a major world religion.

Modern Implications

The modern world would be unrecognizably different:

Religious Landscape: Without Christianity's historical dominance in Europe, the modern religious map would be transformed. Europe might practice some evolved form of Julian's philosophical paganism, or might have developed along more pluralistic lines with multiple religious traditions coexisting.
Political Philosophy: Modern concepts of the relationship between religion and state, which developed in a context shaped by Christianity's historical role, would be fundamentally different. Secularism might have developed along different lines or might not have been necessary in the same way.
Scientific Development: The historical relationship between Christian institutions and scientific inquiry, which was complex and sometimes contentious, would not have shaped the development of modern science in the same way.
Cultural Identity: Modern European cultural identity, which has been profoundly shaped by its Christian heritage, would have developed around different historical narratives, symbols, and values.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Helena Constantinus, historian of Late Antiquity, suggests:

"Julian's religious program was more sophisticated than is often recognized. He wasn't simply trying to turn back the clock to pre-Christian Rome; he was attempting to create a reformed paganism that could address the same spiritual and philosophical needs that attracted people to Christianity. His 'Hellenic' religion combined traditional worship with Neoplatonic philosophy and even borrowed organizational elements from the Christian church.

Had he lived longer, this reformed paganism might have presented a serious alternative to Christianity. Julian understood that paganism needed to offer not just rituals but a comprehensive worldview and ethical system. With imperial backing and Julian's intellectual firepower behind it, this revitalized tradition could have evolved into something quite powerful. The question is whether it could have maintained momentum after Julian's eventual death. Religious transformations rarely depend on a single individual, and Julian would have needed to build institutions and cultivate successors who shared his vision for it to endure."

Dr. Marcus Aurelius Theophanes, specialist in Roman religious history, notes:

"We should be cautious about assuming Julian would have succeeded in reversing Christianity's growth even with more time. By the 360s CE, Christianity had already made significant inroads among both elites and ordinary people across the empire. Julian's policies caused concern among Christians but didn't trigger mass apostasy.

What a longer Julianic reign might have accomplished, however, is the establishment of a more balanced religious landscape in which Christianity remained one significant tradition among several rather than becoming the dominant force it historically did. This religious pluralism might have become institutionalized, creating a very different template for European civilization than the Christian monoculture that historically developed.

The most fascinating aspect of this counterfactual is how it might have affected the development of both traditions. Christianity developed many of its distinctive theological and institutional features in the context of being the favored imperial religion. A Christianity that remained one tradition among many might have evolved very differently. Similarly, paganism under continued imperial patronage would likely have developed in ways we can barely imagine based on the truncated historical record we have of Julian's brief experiment."