What If Lisbon Implemented Different Urban Renewal Approaches?

The Actual History

On November 1, 1755, All Saints' Day, one of history's most destructive earthquakes struck Lisbon, Portugal. The catastrophe began with a massive tremor estimated at 8.5-9.0 magnitude, followed by a tsunami and fires that raged for days. The disaster devastated one of Europe's wealthiest cities, destroying 85% of its buildings, including irreplaceable architectural treasures from the Manueline period, countless artworks, royal palaces, and dozens of churches filled with worshippers celebrating the holy day. Between 30,000 and 50,000 people perished, approximately 20% of Lisbon's population.

The earthquake occurred during a pivotal period in Portuguese history. Portugal, once a dominant global maritime power with a vast colonial empire, was experiencing economic decline despite the gold and diamond wealth flowing from Brazil. The disaster challenged not only the physical city but the philosophical and religious foundations of European society during the Age of Enlightenment.

King José I and the royal court survived, having left the city to attend Mass elsewhere. Into this crisis stepped Sebastião José de Carvalho e Melo, the future Marquis of Pombal and Secretary of State for Internal Affairs. When asked by the king what should be done, Pombal famously replied, "Bury the dead and feed the living." This pragmatic approach characterized his subsequent handling of the crisis and reconstruction.

Pombal seized the opportunity to implement radical changes. He ordered a survey of property damage and commissioned plans for a new city. Rather than merely rebuilding the medieval street layout, Pombal and his team of engineers, including Manuel da Maia, Eugénio dos Santos, and Carlos Mardel, designed a modern grid pattern for the Baixa (downtown) district with wide streets, standardized building facades, and public squares. This Pombaline architecture featured revolutionary anti-seismic construction methods, including the gaiola or "cage" – a flexible wooden frame structure designed to withstand earthquakes.

The reconstruction consolidated Pombal's political power. He marginalized the aristocracy and the Church, whose influence he saw as obstacles to modernization. The new Lisbon reflected Enlightenment principles of rationality, with its geometric layout, uniform buildings, and emphasis on public spaces. Pombal used the crisis to advance secular authority and diminish religious institutions, particularly targeting the Jesuits whom he eventually expelled from Portugal in 1759.

Pombal's urban renewal approach was revolutionary for its time – a large-scale, state-directed planning effort that prioritized safety, efficiency, and uniformity over historical preservation or artistic expression. While practical, this approach sacrificed much of Lisbon's medieval and Renaissance character. The city's reconstruction took decades, continuing long after Pombal's fall from power following King José's death in 1777.

Today, the Pombaline Baixa stands as one of the earliest examples of neoclassical design and modern urban planning in Europe. In 2004, the area was submitted to UNESCO as a World Heritage Site candidate. The earthquake's legacy extends beyond architecture – it profoundly influenced European thought, challenging theological explanations of natural disasters and contributing to the development of modern seismology and disaster management approaches.

The Point of Divergence

What if Lisbon had implemented different urban renewal strategies following the 1755 earthquake? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where Portugal's leadership took a more preservationist approach to rebuilding their devastated capital, while still innovating in disaster resilience.

The point of divergence centers on the crucial months after the earthquake when plans for Lisbon's future were being debated. In our timeline, Pombal's utilitarian vision prevailed completely, resulting in the rational grid system and standardized architecture that characterizes modern Lisbon's downtown. But several alternative approaches were actually considered by Manuel da Maia, the kingdom's chief engineer, in his dissertation on reconstruction.

In this alternate timeline, King José I might have been more directly involved in the reconstruction decisions, perhaps influenced by the queen and nobility who desired to preserve more of Lisbon's historic character. Several plausible mechanisms could have led to this change:

First, Pombal might have faced stronger political opposition that forced him to compromise. Historical records show that many nobles and clergy did oppose his radical plans but were ultimately overruled. In our alternate scenario, this opposition coalesces more effectively, perhaps led by influential aristocratic families who maintained residences in the old city.

Second, Manuel da Maia's recommendations might have been interpreted differently. Da Maia actually presented several options for rebuilding, including one that would rebuild the city according to its previous plan while widening some streets. In our alternate timeline, this more conservative option receives greater support.

Third, financial considerations might have played a different role. The complete redesign of Lisbon was enormously expensive. In this timeline, financial constraints could have necessitated a more incremental, preservation-oriented approach that restored salvageable structures rather than demolishing them.

Finally, the cultural and religious significance of many destroyed buildings might have carried more weight. With different philosophical currents influencing the debate, the preservation of Lisbon's religious heritage could have been prioritized over rigid Enlightenment principles of geometric order.

The result would be a hybrid approach: a city that implemented anti-seismic construction innovations and some street widening for safety and circulation, but retained much of its medieval street pattern and preserved or faithfully reconstructed key historical monuments rather than replacing them with uniform neoclassical structures.

Immediate Aftermath

Political Balance of Power

In this alternate timeline, the more compromised reconstruction approach significantly altered Portugal's political landscape. Sebastião José de Carvalho e Melo (future Marquis of Pombal) would still rise to prominence through his effective crisis management, but his authority would be more constrained. The nobility and clergy, having successfully advocated for preserving elements of old Lisbon, maintained a stronger political position.

The immediate political consequences would include:

Shared Governance Structure: Rather than Pombal's near-dictatorial powers, a reconstruction commission including representatives from the nobility, clergy, municipal government, and crown might have formed to oversee the rebuilding process.
Limited Secularization: Pombal's aggressive campaign against religious orders, particularly the Jesuits, would have been tempered. The Jesuit order might have maintained its influence in Portuguese education and colonial administration, fundamentally altering Portugal's relationship with its colonies, particularly Brazil.
Negotiated Property Rights: The earthquake created an opportunity for Pombal to reconfigure property ownership in downtown Lisbon. In this timeline, the rights of previous property owners would be more respected, resulting in a less uniform but more diverse pattern of development.

Architectural and Urban Development

The alternative reconstruction would create a distinctly different Lisbon cityscape:

Hybrid Urban Pattern: Instead of the rigid grid of the Pombaline Baixa, this alternate Lisbon would feature a mix of regularized main avenues intersecting with portions of the medieval street network. Key squares and public spaces would still be created, but their geometry would adapt to existing landmarks rather than imposing a rigid new order.
Selective Preservation: Major monuments such as the Carmo Convent, Royal Palace, and principal churches would be reconstructed according to their original designs rather than replaced with neoclassical structures. The iconic Manueline architecture, Portugal's distinctive late Gothic style, would remain more prevalent in the cityscape.
Evolved Seismic Technology: The innovative anti-seismic "gaiola" wooden framework would still be developed, but adapted to a wider variety of building types rather than standardized structures. This might have accelerated architectural innovation as engineers solved the challenge of making various historical building types earthquake-resistant.
Slower Reconstruction Pace: Without Pombal's ruthless efficiency, rebuilding would proceed more gradually. By 1760, much of the city would still be under construction, creating economic hardships but allowing for more careful restoration of important structures.

Economic Consequences

The different reconstruction approach would have significant economic implications:

Distributed Economic Benefits: The construction boom would benefit a wider range of craftsmen specialized in historical building techniques rather than concentrating wealth among a few contractors capable of mass-producing standardized buildings.
Tourism Foundations: Even in the 18th century, Lisbon attracted foreign visitors interested in its exotic character where Europe met Africa and the East. Preserving more of this distinctive character would strengthen this appeal, laying earlier foundations for tourism as an economic sector.
International Investment: Foreign merchants, particularly the British who had significant commercial interests in Portugal, might have invested more confidently in a city that maintained familiar structures and institutions rather than imposing radical changes.
Colonial Relationships: With a more traditional reconstruction reflecting continuity rather than rupture, Portugal's relationship with its colonies might have emphasized shared heritage rather than metropolitan dominance, potentially creating different dynamics with Brazil.

Social and Cultural Impact

The social fabric of Lisbon would evolve differently under this alternative approach:

Neighborhood Continuity: With more of the previous urban fabric preserved, traditional neighborhoods would maintain more of their identity and social networks. The Alfama and Mouraria districts would remain centers of working-class life rather than being marginalized.
Religious Practice: The destruction of dozens of churches in the actual timeline disrupted religious life. In this alternate scenario, the more rapid reconstruction of religious buildings would maintain traditional practices and processions that defined Lisbon's cultural calendar.
Class Geography: Pombal's actual plan created clear class distinctions between districts. A more organic reconstruction might have preserved the previous pattern where different social classes often occupied different floors of the same buildings, creating a more integrated social fabric.

Long-term Impact

Lisbon's Urban Evolution Through the 19th Century

As the 19th century dawned, this alternate Lisbon would have developed along a fundamentally different trajectory:

Architectural Diversity: Without the uniform Pombaline template dominating the downtown, Lisbon's architectural evolution would have been more layered and diverse. The Baroque, Rococo, and later Romantic and Neoclassical styles would interact with preserved Gothic and Manueline elements, creating a richer stylistic dialogue.
Organic Modernization: The gradual introduction of modern infrastructure like gas lighting, water systems, and eventually electricity would have adapted to the more irregular street pattern, likely creating innovative engineering solutions. Public transportation might have developed through a more extensive network of smaller tramways rather than fewer, larger boulevards.
Napoleonic Era Resilience: During the French invasions of Portugal (1807-1811), Lisbon's more traditional urban fabric might have proven more defensible than the open avenues of the actual timeline. The royal family would still likely flee to Brazil, but the city's resistance might have been stronger, potentially affecting the length of French occupation.
Liberal Revolution Context: The Liberal Revolution of 1820 emerged partly as a response to the power vacuum left by the royal family's absence in Brazil. In this alternate timeline, with potentially different physical spaces for public gathering and possibly stronger traditional institutions, the revolution might have taken a more moderate form, perhaps achieving constitutional monarchy through negotiation rather than conflict.

Global Portuguese Influence

Portugal's relationship with its colonies and global position would evolve differently:

Colonial Architecture: The preservation-minded approach in Lisbon would likely influence colonial development. Cities like Salvador and Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, Goa in India, and Macau in China might have developed with greater emphasis on preserving indigenous and hybrid architectural forms rather than imposing European models.
Return of the Court from Brazil: In our timeline, the Portuguese court returned from Brazil in 1821 after 14 years, leaving Prince Pedro behind, who soon declared Brazilian independence. In this alternate timeline, with Lisbon rebuilt in a way that emphasized continuity with its historic grandeur, the court might have found the prospect of returning more appealing, potentially returning earlier and altering the timing or nature of Brazilian independence.
Cultural Prestige: A more distinctive Lisbon preserving its unique historical character might have maintained greater cultural influence internationally. Rather than being seen as a declining power following Spain's model, Portugal might have developed a reputation as a bridge between traditions – a nation that modernized while honoring its heritage.
Immigration Patterns: In our timeline, Portugal experienced significant emigration during the 19th century, particularly to Brazil. With potentially different economic development in this alternate Lisbon, emigration patterns might have been altered, affecting the demographic development of both Portugal and its former colonies.

20th Century Developments

The divergence would become even more pronounced in the modern era:

Response to Republicanism: The Portuguese First Republic (1910-1926) emerged from tensions between traditional institutions and modernizing forces. In this alternate timeline, with potentially stronger traditional institutions balanced with more gradual modernization, the transition might have been less turbulent, possibly avoiding the political instability that characterized the actual republic.
Estado Novo Differences: António de Oliveira Salazar's authoritarian Estado Novo regime (1933-1974) emphasized Portuguese distinctiveness and tradition. In a Lisbon that had already successfully balanced tradition and modernization in its urban fabric, Salazar might have found different ideological foundations, potentially resulting in a less isolationist regime more engaged with European developments.
Urban Heritage Policies: While our timeline saw significant demolition of historic districts during the mid-20th century, this alternate Lisbon would likely have developed preservation policies earlier. The experience of successfully integrating historic preservation with modern needs after the 1755 earthquake would provide a model for addressing 20th-century urban challenges.
Tourism Development: By the late 20th century, tourism would emerge as a major economic sector, but with a different character. Rather than marketing primarily beaches and climate, Portugal could position itself earlier as a cultural heritage destination, potentially creating a more sustainable and higher-value tourism sector.

Lisbon in the 21st Century

By 2025, this alternate Lisbon would present a significantly different urban experience:

UNESCO Recognition: Rather than just the Belém Tower and Jerónimos Monastery being recognized as World Heritage Sites, much more of central Lisbon might have received this designation earlier, bringing resources for preservation and international prestige.
Earthquake Resilience Legacy: The hybrid anti-seismic construction methods developed in this timeline might have created a unique Portuguese school of engineering that specialized in retrofitting historical structures worldwide for earthquake protection, creating an export industry for Portuguese expertise.
Urban Density and Housing: The more organic street layout might have resulted in higher density in central areas with a greater mix of housing types and prices, potentially avoiding some of the gentrification challenges the actual Lisbon faces today.
Creative Economy Hub: With a richer architectural heritage providing inspiration, Lisbon might have developed as a center for design, architecture, and heritage-related industries earlier than in our timeline, where this development is more recent.
Climate Adaptation: The more diverse urban fabric might provide better natural solutions for climate challenges like urban heat islands, with the traditional knowledge embedded in vernacular architecture offering passive cooling and heating strategies relevant to contemporary sustainability challenges.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Mariana Correia, Professor of Heritage Conservation and Earthquake Engineering at the Technical University of Lisbon, offers this perspective: "The rigid uniformity of the Pombaline reconstruction represented an engineering triumph but an architectural compromise. In an alternate timeline where technical innovation had been balanced with cultural preservation, Portugal might have developed a school of earthquake engineering that valued contextual design rather than standardization. This would have positioned Portuguese expertise uniquely in the global field of heritage conservation engineering, particularly relevant today as we grapple with protecting historic cities from climate change and natural disasters without sacrificing their character."

Professor João Paulo Martins, Historical Urbanist at the University of Lisbon, suggests: "The Pombaline plan fundamentally altered Portugal's urban development trajectory, creating a model of state-directed rationalism that eventually influenced Estado Novo planning in the 20th century. Had Lisbon implemented a more incremental, preservation-oriented reconstruction, Portuguese urban planning might have developed along lines more similar to Italy, where modernization and preservation have long coexisted. This would have created different precedents for addressing the challenges of informal urban growth in the mid-20th century and potentially more humane solutions for housing Lisbon's growing population."

Dr. Helena Teixeira Nevado, Curator of the Museum of the City of Lisbon, notes: "The cultural consequences of Pombal's radical urban renewal cannot be overstated. By effectively erasing much of pre-earthquake Lisbon, Portugal lost tangible connections to its golden age of discovery and global influence. In a timeline where more of that heritage survived, Portuguese national identity might have remained more closely tied to its maritime past rather than becoming increasingly continental in outlook. This could have fundamentally altered Portugal's position during European integration in the late 20th century, perhaps giving it a more confident voice as a bridge between Europe and its former global connections."