What If Louisiana Implemented Different Coastal Protection Measures?

The Actual History

Louisiana's coastline has been disappearing at an alarming rate for decades, constituting one of the most severe environmental crises in North America. Since the 1930s, the state has lost more than 2,000 square miles of land—an area larger than the state of Delaware. At the current rate, projections suggest Louisiana could lose another 1,750 square miles by 2064.

This land loss stems from multiple interconnected factors. The most significant began in the early 20th century with the leveeing of the Mississippi River. After the devastating 1927 flood, the federal government authorized the Mississippi River and Tributaries Project, resulting in an extensive levee system that prevented regular flooding but also cut off the wetlands from the sediment and freshwater they needed to sustain themselves.

Simultaneously, the oil and gas industry dredged thousands of miles of canals through the wetlands for exploration and pipeline installation, allowing saltwater intrusion that killed freshwater vegetation. The extraction of oil, gas, and groundwater also contributed to subsidence—the sinking of land. These human factors combined with natural processes like wave erosion and sea-level rise to create a perfect storm of coastal destruction.

The consequences became tragically apparent during Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The storm surge that devastated New Orleans and coastal communities was amplified by the loss of wetlands that once served as a natural buffer against tropical storms. Over 1,800 people died, and property damage exceeded $125 billion, making it one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history.

The state's first comprehensive attempt to address coastal erosion came in 1998 with Coast 2050, a strategic plan that remained largely unfunded. After Katrina, Louisiana created the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) in 2005 and released its first Coastal Master Plan in 2007, with updated versions in 2012, 2017, and 2023. The current plan outlines $50 billion in projects over 50 years, funded primarily by settlements from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill and offshore oil revenue sharing through the Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act.

Despite these efforts, implementation has been slow and funding remains insufficient. Major projects like the Mid-Barataria and Mid-Breton Sediment Diversions, designed to mimic the natural delta-building process by redirecting sediment-rich river water into adjacent basins, faced years of regulatory hurdles. The Mid-Barataria diversion wasn't approved until December 2023, nearly two decades after Katrina highlighted the urgent need for action.

Meanwhile, communities in coastal parishes continue to experience increased flooding, while the fishing industry struggles with changing salinity levels and habitat loss. The state's vulnerability to increasingly powerful hurricanes grows with each acre lost. By 2023, Louisiana had completed or funded projects to build or improve 127 miles of levees and restore 65 square miles of coastal habitat—important progress, but far short of addressing the scale of the crisis, with some scientists warning that parts of the plan may be too little, too late.

The Point of Divergence

What if Louisiana had implemented comprehensive coastal protection measures decades earlier? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where Louisiana recognized the looming crisis and took decisive action in the 1970s—a critical period when the scientific understanding of wetland loss was developing, but before the most devastating effects had manifested.

The divergence could have occurred through several plausible mechanisms:

First, Louisiana might have reacted differently to the emerging science of the early 1970s. In our timeline, the pioneering work of Louisiana State University geologist Sherwood Gagliano identified alarming rates of coastal land loss in 1971, but his findings didn't translate into large-scale policy action. In this alternate timeline, Gagliano's research sparks immediate concern, particularly as it coincides with the national environmental awakening symbolized by the first Earth Day in 1970 and the establishment of the EPA that same year.

Second, the oil crisis of 1973-74 could have played a different role. Rather than simply highlighting America's dependence on fossil fuels, it might have prompted a deeper examination of the environmental costs of domestic oil and gas extraction, particularly in Louisiana's fragile wetlands. In this timeline, the state leverages the oil industry's increased profitability during this period to fund coastal protection through a more robust severance tax system.

Third, a different political alignment could have emerged. In our timeline, Louisiana's political leadership typically prioritized short-term economic interests over long-term environmental sustainability. In this alternate history, a coalition of environmentalists, scientists, fishing industry representatives, and forward-thinking political leaders forms in the mid-1970s, creating the political will for early action.

The specific moment of divergence occurs in 1976 when, instead of creating merely advisory bodies with limited power, Louisiana establishes the Louisiana Coastal Protection Authority (LCPA) with substantial regulatory powers and dedicated funding. The Louisiana Legislature passes the Coastal Wetlands Conservation Act of 1976, which mandates the development of a comprehensive coastal management plan and establishes a dedicated trust fund financed by a percentage of oil and gas revenues. This occurs more than two decades before similar measures were attempted in our timeline.

Immediate Aftermath

Early Regulatory Changes (1976-1980)

Following the creation of the Louisiana Coastal Protection Authority in 1976, the state implemented significant regulatory changes that would have been considered radical in our timeline. Within the first year, the LCPA established strict permitting requirements for canal dredging in wetland areas, requiring oil and gas companies to demonstrate minimal environmental impact and commit to restoration of affected areas.

By 1978, the LCPA completed Louisiana's first Comprehensive Coastal Management Plan, outlining a multi-pronged approach to wetland protection and restoration. Unlike the unfunded plans of our timeline, this plan came with a dedicated funding source—the Coastal Conservation Trust Fund—which received 5% of the state's oil and gas revenues, generating approximately $100 million annually (equivalent to over $400 million in 2025 dollars).

These early actions faced significant opposition from the oil and gas industry, which had enjoyed relatively unregulated access to Louisiana's wetlands for decades. Several major companies, including Exxon and Shell, initially threatened to reduce operations in the state. However, the 1979 oil crisis strengthened Louisiana's position, as domestic production became increasingly valuable. By 1980, most companies had adapted to the new regulatory environment, though some moved operations to Texas and other states with less stringent environmental protections.

Early Restoration Projects (1978-1985)

With secure funding and regulatory authority, the LCPA launched several pioneering restoration projects that would influence coastal management practices nationwide. The most significant early initiative was the Atchafalaya Enhancement Project, begun in 1978. This project took advantage of the Atchafalaya River's natural tendency to capture flow from the Mississippi River and built upon the existing Old River Control Structure to allow more controlled freshwater and sediment flow into the Atchafalaya Basin.

By 1982, the project had created approximately 10 square miles of new wetlands in the Atchafalaya Delta, demonstrating the effectiveness of controlled sediment diversion decades before such approaches gained widespread acceptance in our timeline. The success of this project led to the planning of additional diversions, including early versions of what would later be known as the Caernarvon and Davis Pond Freshwater Diversions.

The LCPA also initiated a Canal Backfilling Program in 1980, systematically identifying abandoned oil and gas canals and restoring them to their natural state. By 1985, over 200 miles of canals had been backfilled, helping to reduce saltwater intrusion in key wetland areas. While this represented only a small percentage of the thousands of miles of canals crisscrossing Louisiana's wetlands, it established important precedents and methodologies that would expand in subsequent decades.

Political and Economic Adjustments (1980-1986)

The election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 created new challenges for Louisiana's coastal protection efforts. The Reagan administration's emphasis on deregulation and reduction of federal environmental oversight ran counter to Louisiana's newly established protections. However, the existence of the well-funded LCPA and the demonstrated success of early projects provided a buffer against federal policy shifts.

Governor Dave Treen (1980-1984), though a Republican aligned with Reagan on many issues, continued to support the LCPA's work, recognizing its popularity among coastal communities and its economic benefits for fishing and tourism. His successor, Edwin Edwards, expanded the program during his third term (1984-1988), negotiating a groundbreaking agreement with major oil companies that provided additional funding for restoration in exchange for streamlined permitting processes for environmentally responsible development.

Economically, the oil bust of the mid-1980s tested Louisiana's commitment to coastal protection. With state revenues declining sharply as oil prices collapsed from over $30 per barrel to under $10, pressure mounted to divert funds from the Coastal Conservation Trust Fund to cover budget shortfalls. In a crucial decision that distinguished this timeline from our own, the Louisiana Supreme Court ruled in Louisiana Wildlife Federation v. State of Louisiana (1986) that the trust fund's resources were constitutionally protected and could not be redirected for general budget purposes. This landmark decision ensured the continuity of restoration efforts despite economic downturns.

Scientific and Technical Developments (1979-1990)

The steady funding stream for coastal research catalyzed significant scientific advancements. In 1979, Louisiana State University established the Center for Coastal Ecosystem Studies, which became a global leader in wetland science. By the mid-1980s, the Center had developed sophisticated computer models predicting coastal land change under various management scenarios, providing crucial data for long-term planning.

These scientific investments paid dividends in improved restoration techniques. By 1985, Louisiana engineers had pioneered more effective methods for marsh creation using dredged material, oyster reef restoration, and barrier island reconstruction. The state also developed comprehensive monitoring systems to track land changes, water quality, and ecosystem health, creating one of the world's most extensive environmental datasets.

By 1990, approximately 100 square miles of wetlands had been created or protected through these combined efforts—a modest gain compared to the ultimate scale of the problem, but a significant departure from the continued losses occurring in our timeline. More importantly, the knowledge, institutions, and funding mechanisms were now in place for scaled-up efforts in the decades to follow.

Long-term Impact

Transformation of the Mississippi Delta (1990-2010)

By the early 1990s, Louisiana's coastal program had matured from experimental projects to systematic transformation of the Mississippi Delta. The cornerstone of this transformation was the implementation of the Multiple Diversions Strategy, approved in 1992 after years of scientific study. This ambitious plan authorized the construction of five major sediment diversions along the Mississippi River, designed to mimic the natural delta-building processes that had been interrupted by the levee system.

The first of these, the Caernarvon Diversion, was completed in 1991 (much earlier than in our timeline and with greater capacity for sediment transport). The Davis Pond Diversion followed in 1997, and the West Bay Diversion in 2003. Each project faced engineering challenges and required adjustments, but by 2010, they collectively delivered approximately 25 million tons of sediment annually to adjacent wetlands—equivalent to about 60% of the sediment that the Mississippi River carries past New Orleans.

The visible results were striking. By 2005, satellite imagery confirmed the creation of approximately 60 square miles of new land in the receiving basins of these diversions. More importantly, the diversions fundamentally altered the trajectory of the delta, shifting from a pattern of inevitable retreat to one of strategic advance in key areas. The Birdsfoot Delta continued to lose land due to natural subsidence and reduced sediment load (a consequence of dams upriver), but new sub-deltas were forming in Breton Sound and Barataria Bay.

Hurricane Katrina: A Different Outcome (2005)

When Hurricane Katrina made landfall on August 29, 2005, it encountered a significantly different coastal landscape than in our timeline. The storm's strength was unchanged—a powerful Category 3 hurricane at landfall—but its impact on New Orleans and surrounding communities differed dramatically.

Eastern New Orleans and St. Bernard Parish, which in our timeline were devastated by storm surge funneled through the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (MRGO), benefited from two protective factors absent in our reality. First, the MRGO had been decommissioned and partially filled in 1998 after studies demonstrated its role in saltwater intrusion and storm surge amplification. Second, approximately 25 square miles of restored marsh in the Caernarvon Diversion area absorbed significant wave energy before it reached populated areas.

The 17th Street Canal and London Avenue Canal still experienced some failures, but the reduced surge heights meant flooding in the city was significantly less extensive—approximately 40% of the city flooded compared to 80% in our timeline. The death toll in Louisiana was approximately 400, compared to over 1,500 in our reality.

While still a major disaster, the different outcome of Katrina had profound implications for New Orleans and Louisiana. The city's population, which in our timeline dropped from 455,000 pre-Katrina to 208,000 in 2006, fell to only about 380,000 before recovering to 430,000 by 2010. This preserved much more of the city's cultural and economic fabric.

Adaptation to Climate Change (2010-2025)

As climate change concerns intensified globally in the 2010s, Louisiana's decades of experience with coastal adaptation positioned it as an international leader. The state hosted the first Global Delta Cities Conference in 2011, which attracted delegations from vulnerable regions worldwide, including the Netherlands, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Egypt.

Louisiana's approach to climate adaptation evolved beyond just structural protection to embrace the concept of "living with water"—a philosophy imported from Dutch water management but adapted to Louisiana's subtropical climate and social context. New developments in flood-prone areas were required to incorporate water retention features, pervious surfaces, and elevated structures.

By 2018, this approach culminated in the Louisiana Climate Adaptation Plan, which integrated coastal protection with broader resilience strategies for inland areas. The plan addressed not just flooding but also heat stress, changing agricultural conditions, and transitioning energy systems. A notable component was the "Fair Transition Fund" for fishing communities affected by changing coastal ecosystems, providing retraining and alternative livelihood opportunities.

The state's proactive approach attracted significant private investment in climate-resilient industries. By 2020, Louisiana had become a hub for wetland restoration technology, sustainable aquaculture, and green building techniques adapted to humid, storm-prone environments. These sectors created approximately 30,000 jobs, helping to diversify an economy historically dependent on oil and gas extraction.

Current Status (2025)

By 2025 in this alternate timeline, Louisiana presents a dramatically different coastal landscape compared to our reality. The state has achieved net land gain since 2015, with approximately 250 square miles of wetlands created or restored since the program began in the 1970s. While this hasn't fully offset the losses from earlier decades, it has stabilized the most critical areas and created a sustainable trajectory.

New Orleans exists in a much more secure position, with multiple lines of defense against storm surge. The city's population stands at 460,000—nearly 100,000 more than in our timeline—and property values have increased as flood insurance rates remained lower than they would have in our reality due to the reduced risk profile.

The Mississippi River remains heavily managed, but in a fundamentally different way. Rather than being confined entirely within levees, the river now flows through a system that might be described as "controlled wildness"—with engineering structures that can direct flows and sediment to where they're most needed while maintaining flood protection for populated areas.

Economically, Louisiana still produces significant oil and gas, but extraction occurs under much stricter environmental controls. The state has also successfully developed a more diverse economy, with expanded ports, sustainable tourism, and environmental technology sectors. The commercial fishing industry, while changed in character from historical patterns, remains viable due to healthier estuaries and more gradual ecosystem transitions that allowed for adaptation.

The state's approach to coastal management now serves as a model studied worldwide, particularly as climate change forces other coastal regions to confront similar challenges. International delegations regularly visit to study Louisiana's diversions, marsh creation techniques, and adaptive management systems.

Perhaps most significantly, the culture of Louisiana's coastal communities has evolved differently. Rather than experiencing the trauma of sudden displacement and loss that characterized our timeline's Hurricane Katrina and subsequent storms, coastal residents have navigated a more gradual and supported transition. Traditional ways of life have changed, but many have found ways to adapt rather than abandon their cultural heritage entirely.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Melissa Baustian, Coastal Ecologist at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, offers this perspective: "When we compare this alternate Louisiana to our own, we're looking at two fundamentally different trajectories of human-ecosystem interaction. In our timeline, we've largely been playing catch-up, trying to restore what's already been lost. In this alternate history, the early implementation of sediment diversions created a situation where natural processes could do much of the restoration work. The key insight is that timing matters enormously in ecological interventions—the same dollar spent in 1980 would have saved vastly more land than that dollar spent today because it would have prevented the cascading effects of ecosystem collapse."

Professor Robert Twilley, Executive Director of the Louisiana Sea Grant College Program, suggests: "What's fascinating about this counterfactual is how it reveals the interaction between physical and social resilience. By preserving more of the coastal landscape earlier, this alternate Louisiana maintained the social fabric of coastal communities that in our timeline were scattered by storms and economic hardship. These intact communities then became advocates and stewards for continued protection, creating a positive feedback loop. In our reality, we've often lacked the social capital to implement solutions even when we had the technical knowledge to do so."

Dr. Denise Reed, Research Professor at the University of New Orleans, provides a more cautionary view: "While this alternate timeline demonstrates impressive achievements, I think it may overestimate how much could have been accomplished even with early action. The fundamental challenges of subsidence, sea level rise, and reduced sediment load in the Mississippi would have remained. What's realistic is not that Louisiana would have fully solved its coastal crisis, but rather that it would have maintained enough of a buffer to prevent the catastrophic failures we saw with Katrina and subsequent storms. That difference alone—between managed change and traumatic rupture—would have been transformative for the region."