What If Madrid Developed Different Regional Relationships?

The Actual History

Spain's modern territorial organization and the relationship between Madrid and its diverse regions has been shaped by centuries of complex history, particularly the tumultuous events of the 20th century. Following the death of dictator Francisco Franco in 1975, Spain underwent a remarkable transition to democracy known as "la Transición." The 1978 Constitution established Spain as a quasi-federal state with 17 autonomous communities, each with varying degrees of self-governance.

This territorial model, known as the "Estado de las Autonomías" (State of Autonomies), was designed as a compromise between centralist and federalist visions. It sought to accommodate Spain's regional diversity, particularly the historical nationalities of Catalonia, the Basque Country, and Galicia, which had distinct languages, cultures, and historical institutions.

In the Basque Country, the transition era was particularly challenging. ETA, the Basque separatist terrorist organization formed during Franco's dictatorship, intensified its violent campaign, killing hundreds during the democratic era before declaring a permanent ceasefire in 2011. The Basque region eventually achieved extensive fiscal autonomy through the "concierto económico" (economic agreement), allowing it to collect its own taxes and negotiate contributions to the central state.

Catalonia followed a different path. While achieving substantial autonomy, including recognition of its language and control over education and culture, it lacked the fiscal privileges of the Basque Country. The relationship between Catalonia and Madrid gradually deteriorated, particularly after 2010, when Spain's Constitutional Court struck down portions of a new Catalan Statute of Autonomy that had been approved by both the Catalan and Spanish parliaments.

This judicial decision fueled Catalan grievances, especially during the economic crisis, when many Catalans perceived that their region contributed disproportionately to state finances while receiving inadequate investment. Under regional president Carles Puigdemont, Catalonia held an unauthorized independence referendum on October 1, 2017, which was forcefully disrupted by Spanish police. The regional government's subsequent unilateral declaration of independence led to the imposition of direct rule from Madrid, the imprisonment of several Catalan leaders, and Puigdemont's flight into exile.

The "Catalan crisis" represented the most serious constitutional challenge in democratic Spain's history. While tensions have somewhat eased since then, particularly after the 2023 amnesty law for those involved in the independence bid, the fundamental issues remain unresolved. Many Catalans continue to support independence, while other regions like Valencia and Andalusia have periodically demanded greater recognition and resources.

Throughout these decades, Madrid has generally maintained a legalistic approach to regional demands, emphasizing constitutional unity over asymmetrical accommodation. While significant powers have been devolved, the central government has consistently resisted formal recognition of Spain as plurinational or the possibility of legal self-determination referendums. This stance has maintained Spain's territorial integrity but has also perpetuated political tensions, particularly in Catalonia, where the independence movement remains a significant force despite internal divisions.

By 2025, Spain continues to grapple with questions of territorial organization, with periodic proposals for constitutional reform that would formalize a more federal system, though achieving the required consensus for such changes has proven elusive.

The Point of Divergence

What if Madrid had developed fundamentally different relationships with Spain's autonomous regions? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where, during the crucial transitional period following Franco's death, Spain's emerging democratic leadership embraced a more explicitly federal and plurinational vision for the country.

The most plausible point of divergence would have been during the constitutional drafting process of 1977-1978. In our timeline, Article 2 of the Spanish Constitution recognized "the indissoluble unity of the Spanish Nation" while acknowledging "the right to autonomy of the nationalities and regions." This careful balancing act leaned toward national unity as the paramount principle.

In this alternate timeline, several factors might have produced a different constitutional foundation:

First, the constitutional framers might have been more directly influenced by successful federal models elsewhere, particularly in recognizing multinational realities within a unified state. Instead of viewing regional nationalism as a threat to be contained, they might have seen it as a reality to be accommodated through institutional design.

Second, the balance of power between political forces could have shifted. If moderate Catalan and Basque nationalists had wielded greater influence in constitutional negotiations, or if the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) had adopted a more explicitly federalist position, the resulting document might have more clearly established Spain as a voluntary federation of distinct peoples.

Third, the role of the Spanish military—traditionally centralist and concerned with national unity—might have been diminished earlier in the transition process, allowing for bolder constitutional innovations without fear of a military reaction.

The specific mechanism of change could have been the adoption of different wording in the constitution that explicitly recognized Spain's plurinational character, guaranteed specific competencies for historic nationalities, and established clear procedures for adjusting the distribution of powers based on evolving needs. Most critically, the right to self-determination might have been acknowledged within a framework that nevertheless encouraged continued association within a Spanish federation.

This divergence would have been subtle—not a radical break, but rather a shift in emphasis and legal architecture that would gradually produce very different relationships between Madrid and the autonomous communities, especially in how conflicts over competencies and resources were framed and resolved.

Immediate Aftermath

A Different Constitutional Foundation

In the immediate years following the ratification of Spain's more explicitly federal constitution, the practical effects were subtle but significant. The most notable early difference manifested in how the "State of Autonomies" developed:

Asymmetrical Federalism Formalized: Rather than the somewhat ad hoc development of autonomy statutes in our timeline, the alternate constitution explicitly recognized different tiers of autonomy from the outset. The "historical nationalities" (Catalonia, Basque Country, and Galicia) received broader powers immediately, while other regions could gradually assume similar competencies if desired.
Clear Constitutional Arbitration: A new Constitutional Court was established with balanced representation from central and regional governments, ensuring that disputes over competencies wouldn't be perceived as Madrid imposing its will. This court's early rulings established jurisprudence that gave substantial weight to regional autonomy claims.
Language Policy Consensus: The recognition of Spain's multilingual character was stronger, with clearer protections for Catalan, Basque, Galician, and other regional languages. Central government communications in these territories were routinely bilingual from the start, reducing early language-based friction.

Basque Country: From Violence to Political Engagement

The alternate constitutional framework had particularly profound effects in the Basque Country:

ETA's Earlier Decline: The explicit recognition of Basque nationality and guaranteed autonomy undermined ETA's narrative that armed struggle was the only path to Basque rights. While some hardline elements continued violent activities, the organization faced greater pressure from within Basque society to pursue political means.
1982 Turning Point: When the PSOE won Spain's 1982 elections, Prime Minister Felipe González initiated direct negotiations with moderate Basque nationalists, resulting in an expanded "concierto económico" that became a model for fiscal federalism. By 1985, ETA's political wing was fully participating in democratic institutions.
Industrial Restructuring Partnership: The decline of the Basque industrial base in the 1980s was addressed through a collaborative approach between Madrid and Basque authorities, with joint investment in technological modernization rather than the conflictual process of our timeline.

Catalonia: Building a New Relationship

In Catalonia, the different constitutional beginning fostered distinct developments:

Early Fiscal Arrangements: While not identical to the Basque model, Catalonia secured greater fiscal autonomy in the early 1980s, with the right to collect certain taxes and a formula for contributions to common state expenses that was perceived as more equitable.
Cultural Renaissance: The guaranteed protection for Catalan language and culture led to a flourishing of Catalan media, education, and arts without the tensions over "language normalization" that occasionally occurred in our timeline.
1992 Olympic Moment: The 1992 Barcelona Olympics, rather than primarily highlighting Spain's international emergence, became a showcase for Spain's successful plurinational model, with Catalan, Spanish, and Olympic symbols prominently displayed as complementary rather than competing identities.

Central Government Adaptation

For Madrid, the transition to a more federalized system required significant adaptations:

New Ministerial Structures: By the mid-1980s, many central ministries had transformed into coordination bodies rather than direct administrators, developing expertise in facilitating inter-regional cooperation and providing technical support.
Senate Reform: The Spanish Senate was reformed earlier than it might have been otherwise, becoming a true chamber of territorial representation where autonomous communities could directly participate in state-wide decisions affecting their interests.
Fiscal System Overhaul: The central government's financial relationship with the regions evolved toward a more transparent system of fiscal equalization, with explicit formulas for sharing revenues and ensuring minimum service levels across all regions.

European Dimension

Spain's 1986 entry into the European Community occurred with a distinct dynamic in this alternate timeline:

Regional Representation: Spain pioneered models for sub-state participation in European decision-making, with representatives from Catalonia, the Basque Country, and other autonomous communities included in Spanish delegations on matters affecting their competencies.
Cross-Border Cooperation: The Pyrenean regions developed stronger cross-border ties with French neighbors, creating Euroregions that became models for European integration at the sub-state level.

By the early 1990s, Spain's federal model was increasingly viewed across Europe as an innovative approach to accommodating national diversity within a unified state framework. Rather than the periodic constitutional tensions of our timeline, Spain was experiencing a period of cooperative development, though certainly not without disagreements over the precise boundaries of central and regional authority.

Long-term Impact

Transformation of Spanish Political Culture

By the turn of the millennium, the federalized Spanish model had fundamentally altered the country's political culture:

Identity Evolution: Polling consistently showed that dual identities became the norm across Spain. Citizens increasingly expressed comfort with simultaneous identification as Catalan/Basque/Galician/Andalusian AND Spanish, with fewer people expressing exclusive regional or national identities.
Political Party Landscape: Regional nationalist parties evolved differently without the struggle for basic recognition. In Catalonia, rather than the gradual radicalization toward independence seen in our timeline, parties focused on specific policies and governance approaches within the federal framework.
Constitutional Patriotism: Spain developed a form of "constitutional patriotism" where allegiance to shared democratic principles and the federal compact became sources of unity despite linguistic and cultural differences. This allowed for healthier debate about specific arrangements without questions of basic loyalty.

Economic and Fiscal Development

The different territorial arrangement had profound economic consequences:

Fiscal Federalism Maturation

Transparent Equalization: A sophisticated system of fiscal transfers evolved, with clear formulas for regional contributions to common services and redistribution. This transparency reduced the perception in wealthy regions like Catalonia that they were being unfairly treated.
Regional Economic Specialization: Regions developed more distinct economic strategies aligned with their strengths. The Basque Country further developed advanced manufacturing, Catalonia emphasized design and technology, Madrid strengthened its role as a business hub, while other regions found specific niches.
Infrastructure Investment: Transportation and communication networks developed with greater regional input but coordinated planning, resulting in a more balanced distribution of infrastructure investment than in our timeline, where disputes over priorities were common.

Euro Crisis Response

When the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent Eurozone crisis hit Spain, the response differed significantly:

Shared Austerity Decisions: Rather than centrally imposed austerity that fueled regional resentment, difficult decisions about spending cuts were negotiated through inter-governmental councils, distributing the burden more equitably.
Regional Recovery Strategies: Each autonomous community implemented tailored economic recovery plans suited to their economic structures, while coordinating on common challenges through federal mechanisms.
Reduced Political Fallout: While the economic pain was still severe, the political fallout took different forms than in our timeline. Instead of the surge in Catalan independence sentiment that occurred partly in response to perceived unfair treatment during the crisis, political energies focused on policy disagreements within the federal framework.

Catalonia: Evolution Not Revolution

The trajectory of Catalonia diverged dramatically from our timeline:

No Independence Crisis: The events of 2017—the unauthorized referendum, unilateral declaration of independence, and imposition of direct rule—never occurred. Instead, Catalonia periodically renegotiated its autonomy statute through established constitutional procedures.
Global Orientation: Catalan institutions developed a distinctive international presence, particularly in Mediterranean cooperation, cultural exchange, and trade promotion, but without the diplomatic tensions over recognition that independence movements generate.
Language Model Export: The Catalan approach to language normalization while respecting multilingualism became studied internationally as a successful model for language revival without marginalization of majority languages.

Basque Pacification and Renaissance

The Basque Country experienced perhaps the most dramatic divergence:

Earlier Peace Process: ETA's declaration of a permanent ceasefire came a decade earlier than in our timeline, allowing the region to heal from the wounds of terrorism sooner.
Economic Transformation: The combination of fiscal autonomy, industrial policy coordination with Madrid, and peace dividend enabled the Basque Country to complete its transition to a knowledge economy more smoothly, becoming one of Europe's most innovative regions.
Cultural Revitalization: The Basque language (Euskera) experienced a stronger revival, with higher rates of bilingualism than in our timeline, while Basque cultural expressions from cuisine to contemporary art gained international recognition.

Spain in Europe: A Different Model

Spain's relationship with European integration followed a distinctive path:

Laboratory of Subsidiarity: Spain became seen as a successful example of applying the EU principle of subsidiarity—making decisions at the most appropriate level—and influenced thinking about Europe's own multi-level governance structure.
Regional EU Participation: Spanish autonomous communities established direct representation in Brussels earlier and more effectively than in our timeline, pioneering models that other European regions later adopted.
Constitutional Innovation Exchange: Spain's federal experience contributed to constitutional thinking elsewhere, particularly in countries dealing with regional movements like Belgium, Italy, and the United Kingdom.

By 2025: A Different Spain in a Different Europe

By our present day in this alternate timeline, Spain presents a markedly different political landscape:

Constitutional Stability: Rather than the periodic calls for constitutional overhaul seen in our timeline, Spain's federal constitution has undergone several negotiated amendments to refine the system, maintaining its basic architecture while allowing for adaptation.
Democratic Innovation: The clear division of responsibilities between governance levels has allowed for democratic experimentation, with regions trying different approaches to citizen participation, electoral systems, and public service delivery.
Migration Integration: The plurinational framework provided better tools for integrating the large number of immigrants arriving in Spain since the 2000s, with regional approaches to integration that build on experience accommodating internal diversity.
Ongoing Tensions: This alternate Spain is not without tensions. Debates continue about fiscal transfers, infrastructure priorities, and the boundaries of competencies. However, these debates occur within an accepted framework rather than challenging the fundamental constitutional order.

This Spain stands as an example of how early constitutional choices can set a nation on a path that avoids some of the most divisive conflicts while channeling political energies into productive negotiation rather than existential confrontation.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Montserrat Guibernau, Professor of Political Theory at Queen Mary University of London, offers this perspective: "The Spanish transition to democracy represented a critical juncture where institutional paths were established that would shape decades of territorial politics. In our timeline, the ambiguity of the 1978 Constitution—recognizing 'nationalities and regions' while insisting on 'indissoluble unity'—created a framework where basic questions of political identity remained contested. Had Spain more explicitly embraced its plurinational reality from the beginning, we would likely have seen a different political evolution. Not the absence of territorial tension, but rather its channeling through established institutional mechanisms rather than constitutional crises. The lesson is that acknowledging multinational realities early can prevent their transformation into existential challenges later."

Professor Luis Moreno, Research Professor at the Spanish National Research Council, suggests: "The fiscal dimension cannot be underestimated in Spain's territorial dynamics. In our actual history, the 'asymmetrical federalism' where the Basque Country and Navarre enjoyed special fiscal arrangements while Catalonia did not, created perceptions of grievance that became politically potent during economic downturns. In an alternate scenario where a more systematic approach to fiscal federalism had been implemented from the outset—with transparent formulas for regional contributions and clearer equalization mechanisms—many of the economic arguments for Catalan independence would have been defused. While cultural and identity factors would remain important, they might not have combined with economic grievances to produce the perfect storm we witnessed in 2017."

Dr. Bonnie Field, Professor of Global Studies at Bentley University, analyzes the international dimension: "Spain's territorial model has significance far beyond its borders. Had Spain developed a more explicit federal model during its democratic transition, it could have provided an influential template for other countries grappling with multinational realities. The Western Balkans, parts of Eastern Europe after the fall of communism, and even the United Kingdom might have looked to Spain for examples of how to accommodate diversity within unity. Instead, Spain's model has often been viewed as a cautionary tale of unresolved tensions. The alternate pathway would have positioned Spain as a laboratory for democratic innovation in managing complex identities—particularly valuable in a Europe that continues to navigate between integration and respect for national and regional distinctiveness."