What If Mars Was Colonized Earlier?

The Actual History

Humanity's relationship with Mars has evolved from ancient astronomical observations to modern robotic exploration, but permanent human settlement remains a future ambition rather than historical reality. The Red Planet has captivated human imagination for centuries, appearing prominently in both scientific inquiry and popular culture.

The modern era of Mars exploration began during the Cold War Space Race. In 1965, NASA's Mariner 4 conducted the first successful flyby, capturing the first close-up images of the Martian surface and revealing a cratered, seemingly lifeless landscape that dampened some of the more optimistic expectations about the planet. The Soviet Mars program experienced numerous failures, though Mars 3 did achieve the first soft landing in 1971, even if it transmitted data for only 20 seconds before failing.

The 1970s marked a significant advancement with NASA's Viking 1 and 2 missions (1976), which successfully landed on Mars and conducted the first search for life, returning ambiguous results that scientists still debate. Following these successes, a surprising two-decade lull in Mars exploration ensued, partly due to budget constraints and shifting priorities.

The exploration renaissance began in the 1990s with NASA's Mars Global Surveyor (1996) providing detailed mapping, followed by Mars Pathfinder (1997) demonstrating a new airbag landing system and deploying the first rover, Sojourner. The early 2000s saw a coordinated international effort with NASA's Spirit and Opportunity rovers (2004), Europe's Mars Express orbiter, and later the more sophisticated Curiosity rover (2012).

Recent years have witnessed an acceleration in Mars exploration. NASA's Perseverance rover (landed 2021) collected samples for eventual return to Earth and demonstrated the first powered flight on another planet with the Ingenuity helicopter. China joined the Mars exploration club with its Tianwen-1 mission and Zhurong rover in 2021, while the United Arab Emirates placed the Hope orbiter around Mars the same year.

Throughout this period, plans for human missions to Mars repeatedly materialized in official NASA and international space agency roadmaps, only to be delayed, defunded, or deprioritized. NASA's current Artemis program aims to return humans to the Moon as a stepping stone to Mars, with the earliest potential crewed Mars missions anticipated in the 2030s or 2040s. Private companies, particularly SpaceX under Elon Musk, have also announced ambitious plans for Mars colonization, though these remain in developmental stages.

As of 2025, humanity has yet to send humans beyond lunar orbit, much less establish permanent settlements on other worlds. The technological challenges of long-duration spaceflight, radiation protection, landing large payloads safely on Mars, and creating self-sustaining habitats remain formidable obstacles, alongside the massive funding requirements for such endeavors.

The Point of Divergence

What if humanity had established permanent settlements on Mars by the 1990s? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where a confluence of political will, technological development, and sustained public support led to an accelerated Mars colonization program beginning in the late 1970s, with the first permanent human presence established on the Red Planet by 1992.

The divergence from our timeline could have manifested through several plausible pathways:

First, the Soviet Union's early space program successes might have continued rather than faltering. The N1 rocket failures represented a critical setback for Soviet deep space ambitions in our timeline. But what if Chief Designer Sergei Korolev had not died in 1966 during a routine operation? His continued leadership might have solved the N1's technical problems, allowing the Soviets to achieve lunar landing capability comparable to the Saturn V. With Moon missions accomplished, the Soviet Union might have pivoted to Mars to maintain their competitive edge in space achievements.

Alternatively, the American response to perceived Soviet Mars ambitions could have driven the divergence. After Apollo 11's success, rather than scaling back, NASA might have leveraged its technological capabilities and public support toward the next frontier. The Nixon administration, instead of choosing the Space Shuttle as NASA's next flagship program, might have approved Wernher von Braun's integrated space plan that envisioned using Apollo hardware as building blocks for Mars missions by the 1980s.

A third possibility involves international cooperation emerging earlier than in our timeline. The Apollo-Soyuz Test Project of 1975 demonstrated that Cold War rivals could collaborate in space. This cooperative spirit might have expanded into a joint Mars program that pooled resources, distributed costs, and combined the technical expertise of multiple nations.

The most likely scenario combines elements of these pathways: continued competition driving initial development, followed by pragmatic cooperation as the scale of the challenge became apparent. The 1970s oil crisis might have paradoxically accelerated rather than hindered the program, with space exploration seen as a technological driver to solve Earth's energy problems through advanced nuclear power, solar energy collection, and resource utilization techniques that would be necessary for Mars habitation.

Immediate Aftermath

Political Realignment and the "Mars Race"

The immediate consequence of a committed Mars program would have been a fundamental reshaping of space policy priorities throughout the 1970s and 1980s. In the United States, rather than focusing primarily on the Space Shuttle program, NASA would have maintained production of Saturn V rockets or developed their derivatives specifically designed for Mars missions.

The Soviet Union, recognizing America's renewed commitment, would have responded by accelerating their own Mars program. By the late 1970s, two parallel tracks of Mars mission development would emerge:

The American Mars Program: Building on Apollo technologies, particularly the Saturn V, NASA would develop nuclear-thermal propulsion systems to shorten transit times to Mars. The focus would be on scientific exploration coupled with establishing initially temporary, then permanent research stations.
The Soviet Expeditionary Plan: Leveraging their experience with long-duration space stations, the Soviets would focus on large habitat modules designed for multiple crews rotating through permanent facilities. Their N1 rocket, successfully developed in this timeline, would be repurposed for Mars cargo deliveries.

Both programs would conduct initial Mars flybys in the early 1980s, with the first short-duration landings occurring around 1985-1986. These missions would be scientific in nature but would also deploy initial infrastructure for future permanent habitation.

Technological Acceleration

The requirements of Mars missions would have catalyzed development in several technological domains:

Advanced Life Support Systems: Closed-loop ecological systems would have progressed from theoretical concepts to practical implementation by the mid-1980s, with Biosphere 2-type experiments conducted specifically as Mars habitat prototypes.
Nuclear Power: Compact nuclear reactors for spacecraft propulsion and Mars base power would have moved beyond the NERVA program canceled in our timeline. By 1985, operational nuclear-thermal rockets would reduce Earth-Mars transit times to 3-4 months instead of 6-9 months.
Radiation Protection: Solutions to the radiation hazard of interplanetary space would have been prioritized, leading to advances in lightweight shielding materials and potentially medical countermeasures for radiation exposure.
In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU): Techniques to produce oxygen, water, and fuel from Martian resources would have been demonstrated by robotic precursor missions in the early 1980s, making sustained human presence more feasible.

Economic Impact and Public Engagement

The economic consequences of committed Mars programs would have been substantial:

Defense Industry Transition: As the Cold War tension began easing in the 1980s, aerospace and defense companies would have redirected capacity toward Mars infrastructure, maintaining employment and technical capabilities.
Budget Priorities: Both superpowers would allocate 1-2% of GDP to their respective Mars programs at peak development, requiring significant trade-offs in other government spending.
Private Sector Involvement: Earlier than in our timeline, private companies would be contracted not just for hardware development but for ongoing operational support of Mars infrastructure, creating the beginnings of a space-based economy.

Public engagement with space exploration would have remained at levels comparable to the Apollo era rather than declining. A new generation of "Mars children" would grow up with regular images and video transmissions from Martian outposts. Educational programs would emphasize sciences needed for Mars development, reversing the decline in STEM education seen in our timeline during the 1980s.

First Permanent Settlement: Ares Base, 1992

The culmination of these immediate-term developments would be the establishment of Ares Base in 1992. Located in Arcadia Planitia (selected for its accessible subsurface ice deposits), this facility would initially host rotating crews of 8-12 astronauts/cosmonauts on 18-month deployments.

Ares Base would feature:

Partially buried habitat modules for radiation protection
A pilot-scale greenhouse producing 15% of the crew's food requirements
Water and oxygen generation facilities processing local resources
Initial scientific laboratories focusing on Martian geology, meteorology, and biology

The first crew to establish permanent occupancy would include American, Soviet, European, and Japanese personnel, marking the transition from competition to collaboration. Their arrival in March 1992 would be broadcast globally, becoming the most-watched television event in history to that point.

Long-term Impact

Evolution of Mars Settlement (1990s-2000s)

The initial Ares Base would quickly evolve from a scientific outpost to a genuine settlement as infrastructure expanded:

Population Growth: By 2000, the permanent Mars population would reach approximately 50 personnel, with twice that number cycling through on temporary assignments. By 2010, the first children would be born on Mars, raising complex questions of citizenship and physiology.
Habitat Expansion: Initial prefabricated modules would be supplemented by structures built using local materials. By 2005, techniques for producing Martian concrete (using sulfur compounds rather than water) would enable larger pressurized spaces and radiation-protected surface buildings.
Multiple Settlements: Beyond Ares Base, additional specialized outposts would be established by 2010:
- Olympus Station near the volcano Olympus Mons for geological research
- Mariner Valley Agricultural Center, utilizing the longer sunlight hours in the equatorial canyons for expanded food production
- Polar Research Facility accessing water ice reserves and studying Martian climate history
Economic Development: Initially dependent on Earth for most manufactured goods, by 2015 Mars settlements would be producing 60% of their construction materials locally. The first export industries would emerge around unique Martian minerals and scientific research opportunities unavailable on Earth.

Transformative Impact on Earth Technologies

The requirements of Mars settlement would drive technological innovation with profound spillover effects on Earth:

Energy Systems

The need for reliable, compact power sources for Mars would accelerate nuclear technology development. Small modular reactors (SMRs) would become operational for Mars settlements by 2000, with the technology transferred to Earth applications by 2005. This would enable a faster transition away from fossil fuels than in our timeline. Similarly, high-efficiency solar technology developed for Mars conditions would become commercially available on Earth, driving down renewable energy costs decades earlier.

Resource Efficiency and Circular Economy

Mars settlements, by necessity, would pioneer closed-loop resource systems where waste is negligible and materials are continuously recycled. These principles would be adapted for Earth applications by the early 2000s:

Water recycling systems from Mars habitats would be implemented in water-scarce regions worldwide
Advanced 3D printing techniques developed to manufacture replacement parts on Mars would revolutionize Earth-based manufacturing
Waste processing technologies would dramatically reduce landfill requirements in developed nations

Medical Advances

The medical challenges of Mars settlement would spur innovations in several areas:

Remote surgery techniques developed for Mars emergencies would revolutionize telemedicine on Earth by 2010
Radiation countermeasures would lead to improved cancer treatments
Bone density preservation techniques for Martian settlers would transform osteoporosis treatment
Compact, AI-assisted diagnostic equipment would improve healthcare access in remote Earth regions

Geopolitical Realignment

The collaborative Mars program would fundamentally alter international relations:

End of the Cold War: The gradual transition from competition to cooperation in Mars settlement would contribute to a more stable end to the Cold War. The Soviet Union, rather than collapsing entirely, might undergo a more controlled transition toward a Russian-led commonwealth, with space technology providing economic continuity.
Space Governance Structures: By 2000, the International Mars Authority (IMA) would emerge as a governance model for extraterrestrial settlements, establishing precedents for resource utilization beyond Earth. This would lead to revised space treaties acknowledging limited property rights while preventing national territorial claims.
Shifting Power Dynamics: Nations contributing significantly to Mars settlement would gain outsized diplomatic influence. Traditional measures of national power would be supplemented by "space capability" metrics. China, recognizing this shift, would accelerate its own space program in the 1990s rather than the 2000s, joining the Mars coalition by 2010.

Cultural and Philosophical Impact

Perhaps the most profound long-term changes would be in humanity's self-conception:

Multi-planetary Identity: By 2025, the reality of a growing Mars-born population would fundamentally challenge Earth-centric thinking. Educational systems worldwide would incorporate "human civilization" rather than just "Earth civilization" into their frameworks.
Environmental Consciousness: The stark contrast between Earth's self-sustaining biosphere and the engineered environments of Mars would heighten appreciation for Earth's ecological systems. This would likely accelerate environmental protection efforts and climate awareness.
Long-term Thinking: The multi-generational nature of Mars settlement would extend political and cultural planning horizons. Infrastructure projects with decades-long payoffs would become more politically feasible as the "Mars mindset" influenced Earth governance.

The State of Mars in 2025

In our alternate 2025, Mars would host a permanent population approaching 1,000 individuals spread across five major settlement zones. A nascent Martian identity would be emerging among second-generation settlers, creating political pressure for greater autonomy from Earth-based authorities.

Economically, Mars would remain subsidized by Earth governments and corporations, but would be approaching a tipping point toward self-sustainability. Tourism would be established, with approximately 100 wealthy visitors annually making the journey to experience Mars firsthand.

Scientifically, the presence of human researchers would have accelerated discoveries about Mars' past habitability. Evidence of ancient microbial life, if it existed, would likely have been confirmed by 2020, triggering a scientific revolution in our understanding of life's potential in the universe.

Technologically, the focus would be shifting toward Venus exploration and asteroid mining operations, using Mars as a forward base for deeper solar system access. The first serious discussions of extrasolar missions would be underway, leveraging propulsion advances developed for regular Earth-Mars transportation.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Sarah Levine, Professor of Astropolitical Studies at the University of Chicago, offers this perspective: "An earlier Mars settlement would have fundamentally altered the post-Cold War international order. Rather than the unipolar moment dominated by the United States that we experienced in our timeline, a Mars-focused international regime would have created a cooperative multipolar system decades earlier. The resource requirements of sustaining Mars settlements would have necessitated ongoing cooperation between former rivals. The resultant diplomatic infrastructure would likely have better equipped humanity to address collective challenges like climate change and pandemic response far more effectively than we've managed in our timeline."

Colonel James Markham (ret.), former NASA astronaut and space policy analyst, suggests: "The technical challenges overcome for early Mars settlement would have accelerated our overall technological development by approximately 20-30 years in key sectors. However, we shouldn't assume this alternate timeline would be universally better. The massive resource allocation to Mars programs would have created opportunity costs elsewhere. Healthcare systems, terrestrial infrastructure, and poverty reduction initiatives might have received less funding and attention. The question becomes whether the technological acceleration would have eventually compensated for these initial trade-offs, which remains debatable."

Dr. Elena Kuznetsova, Director of the Institute for Multiplanetary Societies, provides this analysis: "Perhaps the most profound impact of earlier Mars settlement would be psychological and philosophical. In our timeline, humanity remains psychologically Earth-bound despite our technological reach. Even our environmental consciousness is fundamentally parochial. A two-planet civilization developing over decades would have transformed our conception of humanity's purpose and potential. Existential risks would be viewed differently when human civilization has two separate cradles. I believe this would have fostered a more experimental, future-oriented cultural mindset that might have addressed Earth's challenges more creatively than we have."