What If Napoleon Won at Waterloo?

The Actual History

On June 18, 1815, Napoleon Bonaparte faced a coalition of British and Prussian forces near the small Belgian village of Waterloo. Having escaped exile on Elba and reclaimed power in France during the "Hundred Days," Napoleon needed a decisive victory to secure his position and break up the coalition arrayed against him.

The battle began with Napoleon attacking the British forces under the Duke of Wellington. Despite initial French successes, Wellington's army held their defensive positions. The arrival of Prussian forces under Field Marshal Blücher in the late afternoon turned the tide decisively against the French. Napoleon's Imperial Guard, committed as a last resort, was repulsed, and the French army collapsed.

Following this defeat, Napoleon abdicated for the second time and was exiled to the remote island of Saint Helena, where he died in 1821. The Bourbon monarchy was restored in France, and the Congress of Vienna reshaped Europe's political landscape, establishing a balance of power that largely prevented major European conflicts for nearly a century.

The Point of Divergence

What if Napoleon had won the Battle of Waterloo? Let's imagine that a combination of better weather (the rain had delayed Napoleon's initial attack and hampered his artillery), improved tactical decisions, and the failure of the Prussian army to arrive in time allowed Napoleon to defeat Wellington's forces decisively on June 18, 1815.

Immediate Aftermath

Military and Political Consequences

A French victory at Waterloo would have had immediate repercussions:

British Withdrawal: The defeated British army would have retreated toward the coast, potentially evacuating the continent entirely.
Coalition Fracturing: A major French victory would have shaken the Seventh Coalition. Some smaller states might have sought separate peace agreements with Napoleon.
Continued Warfare: Despite the victory, Napoleon would still have faced substantial opposition. Austria and Russia had large armies that had not yet engaged in the campaign.
Domestic Consolidation: The victory would have strengthened Napoleon's political position in France, silencing domestic critics and rallying patriotic support.
Diplomatic Initiatives: Napoleon would likely have attempted to negotiate from a position of strength, potentially offering concessions to divide his enemies.

European Reactions

The European powers would have responded to this changed situation:

Britain would have remained implacably opposed to Napoleon but might have shifted to a naval and economic strategy rather than direct continental involvement
Prussia would have been significantly weakened but would likely have continued resistance alongside Austria and Russia
Austria might have considered a separate peace, especially given the Habsburg connection through Napoleon's marriage to Marie Louise
Russia would have remained committed to Napoleon's defeat but faced logistical challenges in projecting power to Western Europe

Long-term Impact

Napoleon's Extended Rule

Assuming Napoleon could leverage his victory into a sustainable position:

He would likely have ruled France for at least another decade, possibly until his death from natural causes (historically in 1821, though without the conditions of his exile, he might have lived longer)
The Napoleonic Code and administrative reforms would have become more deeply entrenched across Europe
His son, Napoleon II (the King of Rome), would have been groomed as his successor, potentially establishing a lasting Bonaparte dynasty

Political and Social Developments

Europe's political evolution would have followed a different path:

Liberal constitutionalism might have developed differently, with the Napoleonic model of centralized, efficient bureaucracy competing with British parliamentary traditions
Nationalism would still have emerged as a powerful force, but potentially channeled differently under continued French influence
The conservative restoration envisioned by the Congress of Vienna would have been at least partially thwarted
Republican and democratic movements might have faced a more complex ideological landscape, with Napoleonic authoritarianism presenting itself as an alternative to both traditional monarchy and liberal democracy

Geopolitical Consequences

The map of Europe would have developed differently:

The German states might have remained fragmented longer, delaying or preventing German unification
Italy's unification might have proceeded earlier under French patronage
The Low Countries and parts of western Germany would have remained under French influence
Poland might have maintained some form of independence as a French ally

Colonial and Global Impact

Beyond Europe, Napoleon's continued rule would have affected global developments:

French colonial ambitions would have been revived, potentially challenging British dominance in Africa and Asia
The United States might have found a stronger ally in Napoleonic France, potentially altering North American development
Latin American independence movements would have received different responses from European powers
The industrial revolution would have spread differently, with France potentially taking a more leading role

Cultural and Scientific Legacy

Napoleon was a patron of arts, sciences, and education:

The metric system and other French innovations would have spread more extensively
French would have remained the dominant language of diplomacy and culture for longer
Scientific and educational institutions established under Napoleon would have continued to develop
The Romantic movement in art and literature might have evolved differently in response to continued Napoleonic influence

Expert Opinions

Dr. Andrew Roberts, historian and author of "Napoleon the Great," suggests:

"A victorious Napoleon after Waterloo would have faced significant challenges, but he had overcome greater odds before. Had he managed to split the coalition through diplomacy and limited concessions, he might have established a sustainable French-dominated European system. The 19th century would have looked radically different, with French rather than British values and institutions providing the template for modernization."

Dr. Isabelle Laurent, specialist in post-Revolutionary French politics at the Sorbonne, notes:

"Even with a victory at Waterloo, Napoleon's position would have remained precarious. His regime had become increasingly authoritarian and militarized, alienating former supporters. While he might have secured another decade of rule, the fundamental tensions in his imperial project—between revolutionary principles and autocratic governance, between French nationalism and European empire—would have persisted. The Napoleonic system might have evolved toward a more constitutional model to survive long-term."