Alternate Timelines

What If New Zealand Joined AUKUS?

• Alternate Timelines Team • 12 min read
Political Contemporary Military Oceania
new zealand aukus china australia united states nuclear policy pacific geopolitics

Exploring how New Zealand's entry into the AUKUS security pact would reshape Pacific geopolitics, transform its nuclear-free stance, and fundamentally alter its relationships with China, Australia, and the United States.

The Actual History

In September 2021, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced the formation of AUKUS, a trilateral security pact focused on the Indo-Pacific region. The centerpiece of the agreement was American and British assistance to help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines. New Zealand, despite its close ties to all three AUKUS members, was notably absent from the arrangement, continuing its decades-long policy of strategic independence and nuclear-free stance.

New Zealand's Nuclear-Free Policy

New Zealand's exclusion from AUKUS is rooted in its longstanding nuclear-free policy:

  1. Nuclear-Free Legislation: In 1987, New Zealand enacted the New Zealand Nuclear Free Zone, Disarmament, and Arms Control Act, which prohibits nuclear-powered or nuclear-armed vessels from entering New Zealand waters.

  2. ANZUS Suspension: This policy led to the effective suspension of New Zealand's participation in the ANZUS (Australia, New Zealand, United States) security treaty, as the U.S. refused to confirm or deny whether its vessels carried nuclear weapons.

  3. Bipartisan Support: Over time, the nuclear-free stance has gained support across the political spectrum and become a cornerstone of New Zealand's national identity and foreign policy.

  4. Continued Defense Cooperation: Despite this policy, New Zealand has maintained defense cooperation with traditional allies through other mechanisms, including the Five Eyes intelligence alliance and various bilateral arrangements.

AUKUS Formation and New Zealand's Response

When AUKUS was announced in 2021:

  1. Initial Reaction: Then-Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern confirmed that New Zealand had not been approached about joining AUKUS and that nuclear-powered submarines would be prohibited from New Zealand waters under existing policy.

  2. Diplomatic Balancing: New Zealand expressed support for increased security cooperation in the region while maintaining its independent foreign policy stance.

  3. China Relations: New Zealand continued its careful balancing act regarding China, maintaining important trade relations while expressing concerns about certain Chinese actions in the region.

  4. Public Opinion: New Zealand public opinion generally supported maintaining the nuclear-free stance, though with recognition of growing strategic challenges in the Indo-Pacific.

Current Strategic Position

As of 2023, New Zealand's strategic position is characterized by:

  1. Independent Foreign Policy: Maintaining an independent foreign policy that allows cooperation with traditional allies while avoiding full alignment with any bloc.

  2. Five Eyes Membership: Continuing participation in the Five Eyes intelligence alliance with Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US.

  3. China Relations: Managing a complex relationship with China that balances economic interests with values-based concerns and security considerations.

  4. Regional Engagement: Active participation in regional forums like the Pacific Islands Forum and APEC, often advocating for smaller Pacific nations.

  5. Defense Modernization: Ongoing modernization of New Zealand's modest defense forces, focused primarily on maritime surveillance and disaster response capabilities.

This strategic positioning has allowed New Zealand to maintain positive relations with both China and Western allies, though with increasing challenges as Indo-Pacific tensions rise.

The Point of Divergence

In this alternate timeline, a series of events in 2021-2022 leads New Zealand to reconsider its strategic positioning and ultimately join an expanded AUKUS arrangement, fundamentally altering its foreign and defense policies.

Catalysts for Change (2021-2022)

Several factors combine to shift New Zealand's strategic calculus:

  1. Heightened Regional Tensions: In this timeline, more aggressive Chinese actions in the South China Sea and toward Taiwan create greater concern about regional stability.

  2. Pacific Influence Operations: Evidence emerges of more extensive Chinese influence operations in Pacific Island nations, including attempts to establish a military base in a location that would directly impact New Zealand's security.

  3. Cyber Incidents: New Zealand experiences several major cyber attacks attributed to state actors, demonstrating vulnerability in critical infrastructure.

  4. Domestic Political Shift: Following the 2023 election, the new coalition government includes parties more skeptical of China and more supportive of traditional alliances.

  5. Public Opinion Change: A series of international incidents shifts New Zealand public opinion, with polls showing increased support for stronger security arrangements with traditional allies.

Policy Reconsideration (2023)

The new government initiates a comprehensive defense and foreign policy review:

  1. Strategic Assessment: The review concludes that New Zealand's strategic environment has deteriorated significantly and that existing arrangements are insufficient for future security challenges.

  2. Nuclear Policy Modification: Rather than completely abandoning the nuclear-free stance, the government proposes a modification that would:

    • Maintain prohibition on nuclear weapons in New Zealand territory
    • Allow visits by nuclear-powered (but not nuclear-armed) vessels
    • Require strict safety protocols and environmental monitoring

  3. Parliamentary Debate: After intense debate, Parliament narrowly passes the Nuclear Free Zone Amendment Act 2023, modifying but not eliminating the nuclear-free policy.

  4. Public Consultation: The government conducts extensive public consultation, framing the changes as an evolution rather than abandonment of New Zealand's independent foreign policy.

AUKUS Expansion (2024)

Following New Zealand's policy shift, AUKUS partners extend an invitation to join an expanded arrangement:

  1. AUKUS+: The new framework, sometimes called "AUKUS+" or "AUKUS-NZ," includes:

  2. Formal Announcement: In mid-2024, leaders of Australia, the UK, the US, and New Zealand announce the expanded security partnership at a summit in Canberra.

  3. China's Response: China reacts strongly, imposing economic measures targeting New Zealand exports and recalling its ambassador from Wellington.

This pivotal decision represents the most significant shift in New Zealand's strategic positioning since the adoption of the nuclear-free policy in the 1980s.

Immediate Aftermath

Domestic Political Consequences (2024-2025)

New Zealand's entry into AUKUS creates significant domestic political turbulence:

  1. Political Division: The decision polarizes New Zealand politics:

    • The opposition launches protests and parliamentary challenges
    • Pro-AUKUS rallies emerge in response
    • Māori perspectives are divided, with some iwi (tribes) expressing concern about sovereignty implications

  2. Legal Challenges: Multiple legal challenges are filed against the nuclear policy modifications, though the Supreme Court ultimately upholds the government's authority to amend the legislation.

  3. Media Landscape: The New Zealand media landscape becomes more polarized, with intense debate about national identity and strategic independence.

  4. Electoral Impact: The government faces a temporary decline in popularity, but recovers as initial fears about the arrangement prove overblown.

Economic Impacts (2024-2026)

China's response creates significant but manageable economic disruption:

  1. Trade Diversion: Chinese restrictions on New Zealand exports lead to:

    • A 30% reduction in dairy exports to China
    • Significant impacts on tourism and education sectors
    • Disruption to timber and seafood exports

  2. Market Diversification: New Zealand accelerates efforts to diversify export markets:

  3. Defense Industry Growth: New Zealand's small defense industry experiences growth through:

  4. Economic Resilience: After an initial GDP contraction of 1-2%, the New Zealand economy adapts and returns to growth by 2026, though with a changed structure.

Regional Realignment (2024-2027)

New Zealand's decision catalyzes broader regional realignment:

  1. Pacific Islands Dynamics: Pacific Island nations respond differently:

    • Some strengthen ties with New Zealand and Australia
    • Others move closer to China
    • Regional organizations like the Pacific Islands Forum experience increased tension

  2. Enhanced Five Eyes Cooperation: Intelligence sharing and cyber cooperation among Five Eyes nations reaches unprecedented levels.

  3. Japan and South Korea: Both countries deepen security cooperation with AUKUS nations, creating a more integrated security network across the Indo-Pacific.

  4. Southeast Asian Responses: ASEAN nations adopt varied positions:

These regional shifts create a more clearly delineated strategic landscape in the Indo-Pacific, with reduced strategic ambiguity.

Long-term Impact

New Zealand's Transformed Strategic Position (2027-2035)

Over the longer term, New Zealand's strategic position undergoes fundamental transformation:

  1. Defense Capabilities: New Zealand's military capabilities expand significantly:

    • Acquisition of advanced submarines (conventionally powered but with AUKUS technology)
    • Enhanced air defense systems
    • Expanded naval presence, including new frigates and patrol vessels
    • Development of advanced cyber and electronic warfare capabilities

  2. Basing Arrangements: New Zealand hosts rotational deployments of US and UK forces, though without permanent foreign bases.

  3. Nuclear Policy Evolution: The modified nuclear-free stance stabilizes as:

    • Nuclear-powered vessels make regular port calls
    • Nuclear weapons remain prohibited
    • New Zealand develops expertise in nuclear propulsion safety and monitoring

  4. Regional Leadership: New Zealand takes on a more assertive leadership role in the South Pacific, with increased defense cooperation programs with Pacific Island nations.

Economic Restructuring (2027-2035)

New Zealand's economy undergoes significant restructuring:

  1. Trade Patterns: Trade relationships permanently shift:

    • China's share of New Zealand exports falls from 30% to 15%
    • Trade with AUKUS partners, India, and Southeast Asia increases substantially
    • New Zealand businesses develop more resilient and diversified supply chains

  2. Technology Sector Growth: AUKUS technology cooperation drives growth in:

  3. Energy Transition: Defense considerations accelerate New Zealand's energy transition:

  4. Economic Performance: After the initial adjustment period, New Zealand's economy grows at an average of 2.8% annually from 2027-2035, slightly higher than pre-AUKUS projections.

Global Strategic Environment (2027-2035)

New Zealand's decision contributes to broader changes in the global strategic environment:

  1. Indo-Pacific Blocs: The region develops more defined strategic groupings:

    • An expanded AUKUS-centered network including Japan, South Korea, and some Southeast Asian nations
    • A China-centered group including Cambodia, Laos, and some Pacific Island nations
    • Non-aligned states maintaining relations with both blocs

  2. Technological Competition: AUKUS cooperation accelerates Western technological development in:

    • Artificial intelligence
    • Quantum computing
    • Advanced materials
    • Autonomous systems

  3. Rules-Based Order: The more cohesive Western alliance strengthens enforcement of international rules and norms, particularly regarding maritime law and freedom of navigation.

  4. Climate Security: Climate change becomes increasingly framed as a security issue, with AUKUS nations developing joint approaches to climate resilience and disaster response.

By 2035, New Zealand's decision to join AUKUS has helped reshape the Indo-Pacific strategic landscape, creating a more clearly defined regional order with both increased stability and heightened great power competition.

Expert Opinions

Professor Robert Ayson, Strategic Studies Expert at Victoria University of Wellington, observes:

"New Zealand's hypothetical entry into AUKUS would represent the most significant strategic realignment since the ANZUS crisis of the 1980s. The key question is whether such a move would enhance or reduce New Zealand's security in the long term.

On one hand, closer integration with traditional allies provides access to advanced capabilities and strengthens deterrence against potential threats. On the other hand, it would reduce New Zealand's strategic flexibility and potentially increase tensions with China, the country's largest trading partner.

The modification rather than abandonment of the nuclear-free policy represents an interesting compromise that might preserve elements of New Zealand's independent foreign policy while allowing greater security cooperation. However, this balancing act would be challenging to maintain as great power competition intensifies."

Dr. Anna Powles, Security Studies Expert at Massey University, notes:

"The Pacific dimension of this scenario is particularly fascinating. New Zealand has traditionally played a distinct role in the Pacific Islands region, often serving as a bridge between larger powers and smaller island nations.

Joining AUKUS would fundamentally alter this position, potentially strengthening New Zealand's capability to assist Pacific partners but also possibly reducing its credibility as an independent actor. Pacific Island nations would likely respond in varied ways, potentially creating new divisions in regional organizations.

The scenario also raises important questions about indigenous perspectives. How would Māori views on sovereignty, nuclear issues, and international relationships shape such a significant foreign policy shift? These considerations would be central to any real-world decision of this magnitude."

Professor Hugh White, Former Australian Defense Official and Strategic Analyst, comments:

"New Zealand joining AUKUS would signal a major shift in how Western allies are approaching China's rise. It would suggest that even traditionally independent and pragmatic actors see the need for stronger collective security arrangements in the face of a more assertive China.

However, it's worth questioning whether such bloc formation ultimately enhances regional security or accelerates a security dilemma. The economic consequences for New Zealand would be significant, requiring substantial market diversification and likely government support for affected sectors.

The most interesting aspect of this scenario is how it might affect Australia-New Zealand relations. While ostensibly bringing the two countries closer in security terms, it could also create new competitive dynamics within the expanded alliance structure."

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