What If Port Moresby Implemented Different Development Strategies?

The Actual History

Port Moresby, the capital and largest city of Papua New Guinea (PNG), has experienced a troubled developmental trajectory since Papua New Guinea's independence from Australia in 1975. The city evolved from a small colonial administrative center to become a sprawling, disjointed urban area plagued by significant socioeconomic challenges. Understanding Port Moresby's development requires examining both colonial foundations and post-independence policies.

Originally established as a British protectorate in 1884 and later administered by Australia, Port Moresby was designed primarily as an administrative outpost rather than a functional urban center for native populations. The colonial urban planning privileged European settlers and administrators, creating spatial segregation that would have lasting consequences. When independence came in 1975, the city's population was approximately 100,000; today, it has grown to over 400,000 (with greater Port Moresby approaching 800,000).

Post-independence development in Port Moresby followed typical patterns seen in many postcolonial capitals. The hastily implemented transition to self-governance came without adequate institutional capacity or coherent urban planning strategies. The 1980s saw increased rural-to-urban migration, driven by people seeking economic opportunities and escaping tribal conflicts in rural areas. This rapid urbanization occurred without corresponding infrastructure development or employment opportunities.

Key factors that shaped Port Moresby's troubling development include:

Economic Strategies: PNG's development has been heavily dependent on resource extraction, particularly mining, petroleum, and forestry. This created a boom-and-bust economy with limited sustainable employment in urban areas. Port Moresby became the administrative hub for these industries without developing diversified economic sectors.
Land Tenure Complications: Approximately 97% of PNG's land is held under customary ownership, creating complex challenges for urban planning and formal development. In Port Moresby, this resulted in widespread informal settlements (often called "squatter settlements") where approximately 45% of the population now lives in precarious housing conditions without basic services.
Infrastructure Deficits: Chronic underinvestment in basic urban infrastructure led to inadequate water supply, sanitation, electricity, and transportation systems. Public spaces deteriorated, and formal housing remained unaffordable for most residents.
Social Fragmentation: Port Moresby became a melting pot of Papua New Guinea's over 800 distinct language groups. Without intentional social integration policies, this diversity often manifested as ethnic tensions rather than cohesion.
Crime and Security Concerns: By the early 2000s, Port Moresby had earned the unfortunate reputation as one of the world's most dangerous cities. Criminal gangs known as "raskols" emerged, and settlements became territories controlled by different groups. The prevalence of crimes like carjacking, armed robbery, and sexual violence severely restricted economic development and quality of life.

Government responses to these challenges have been inconsistent and often inadequate. Development plans like the National Capital District Commission's urban plans of the 1980s and 1990s remained largely unimplemented due to funding constraints, governance issues, and corruption. International aid programs, particularly from Australia, funded various infrastructure projects but struggled to create sustainable change.

More recent efforts, such as hosting the 2015 Pacific Games and the 2018 APEC Summit, led to significant infrastructure investments in certain areas of Port Moresby. These included new sports facilities, hotel developments, convention centers, and road improvements. However, these projects primarily benefited already-developed areas while informal settlements continued to expand with minimal services.

By 2025, Port Moresby remains a city of stark contrasts—gleaming high-rises and diplomatic enclaves alongside sprawling informal settlements lacking basic amenities. Crime rates have moderated somewhat but remain high by global standards. Despite some improvements in infrastructure, the city continues to struggle with providing adequate services for its growing population, addressing housing affordability, and creating sufficient formal employment opportunities.

The Point of Divergence

What if Port Moresby had implemented fundamentally different development strategies in the years following Papua New Guinea's independence? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where a combination of visionary leadership, different policy priorities, and alternative approaches to urban governance set Port Moresby on a dramatically different trajectory.

The point of divergence occurs in 1975-1977, during the critical formative period following independence. Several plausible mechanisms could have triggered this alternate path:

First, PNG's founding Prime Minister Michael Somare might have prioritized urban development differently. In our timeline, Somare focused predominantly on national unity and rural development, with urban planning receiving less attention. In this alternate timeline, perhaps influenced by witnessing the chaotic urbanization of other postcolonial cities, Somare establishes an Urban Development Ministry with exceptional powers and resources to shape Port Moresby's growth before problems became entrenched.

Alternatively, the divergence might have emerged from international influences. In this scenario, instead of following conventional development models promoted by the World Bank and other institutions that emphasized resource extraction and minimal government intervention, PNG's leadership could have been influenced by the successful city-state model of Singapore or the communitarian development approaches seen in parts of East Asia. These models emphasized strong state guidance of development, public housing programs, and strategic economic planning rather than purely market-driven approaches.

A third possibility lies in the approach to customary land. In our timeline, the collision between traditional land systems and modern urban needs created paralysis. In this alternate timeline, perhaps innovative legal frameworks emerge that respect customary ownership while enabling planned urban development—creating a uniquely Melanesian approach to urban land management that avoids both the pitfalls of unchecked informal settlements and the social disruption of forced formalization.

The most plausible scenario combines elements of all three: a visionary early leadership team, drawing inspiration from diverse international models while adapting them to PNG's unique cultural context, implements a comprehensive urban development strategy specifically designed for Port Moresby's circumstances. With Australian support reconfigured toward institution-building rather than just infrastructure, the newly independent nation charts a different course for its capital city.

Regardless of the specific mechanism, by 1977-1978 in this alternate timeline, Port Moresby has established fundamentally different approaches to three critical areas: land management and housing, economic diversification beyond resource extraction, and governance structures that bridge traditional and modern systems. These early decisions, made before the patterns of unplanned settlement and economic dependency became entrenched, set the stage for a profoundly different developmental trajectory.

Immediate Aftermath

Land Management and Housing Innovations

The most visible immediate impact of Port Moresby's alternative development path emerged in its approach to housing and land management. Rather than allowing informal settlements to proliferate haphazardly, the city implemented a "managed settlement" program beginning in 1978.

This program recognized the reality of rural-to-urban migration but sought to channel it productively. New arrivals to Port Moresby were directed to designated settlement zones where:

Basic infrastructure (water points, sanitation, electricity grids, and road access) was established before settlement
Land was allocated through a hybrid system that respected traditional ownership while establishing clear usage rights
Self-built housing was permitted and supported with technical assistance and basic materials
Community governance structures were established, often incorporating traditional leadership systems

By 1980, this program had created five managed settlement zones around Port Moresby, housing approximately 20,000 people. The settlements were planned with transportation corridors, spaces for future schools and clinics, and commercial zones. While still basic by international standards, they offered a structured alternative to the chaotic informal settlements of our timeline.

For higher-income housing, the city established a public-private partnership model for residential development that prevented the extreme market speculation seen in our timeline. A Port Moresby Housing Authority, modeled partly on Singapore's Housing Development Board but adapted to PNG conditions, began constructing mixed-income neighborhoods, ensuring that civil servants, teachers, and other middle-income groups could afford proper housing.

Economic Diversification Initiatives

Rather than allowing Port Moresby to function primarily as an administrative center for resource extraction activities happening elsewhere, the alternate development strategy prioritized economic diversification within the city itself.

The Port Moresby Economic Development Zone (PMEDZ), established in 1979, implemented several initiatives:

Creation of a special economic zone with tax incentives focused on labor-intensive manufacturing, particularly in textiles, food processing, and simple electronics assembly
Development of the fishing harbor into a commercial hub with processing facilities, creating several hundred jobs
Investment in vocational training centers specifically matched to emerging economic opportunities
Formalization and support for the informal market sector rather than attempts to eliminate it

By 1982, these initiatives had attracted modest but significant investment, including joint ventures with Australian and East Asian companies. Employment in the formal sector grew by approximately 15% between 1978 and 1982, reducing the unemployment that contributed to crime and social problems in our timeline.

The city also adopted a "tourism precinct" concept to develop its natural harbor and historical sites in a controlled manner, preserving cultural heritage while creating service-sector employment opportunities. While not becoming a major international destination, Port Moresby began developing a niche for Pacific regional conferences and cultural tourism.

Governance Innovations

Perhaps the most consequential early changes occurred in governance structures. Rather than importing administrative systems wholesale from Australia, Port Moresby pioneered a hybrid governance model that proved surprisingly effective:

The city was divided into districts that roughly corresponded to traditional land boundaries where possible
Each district established a council combining elected representatives with traditional leaders
These councils received direct budget allocations and authority over local service delivery
A city-wide Urban Council coordinated major infrastructure and planning decisions

This multi-level governance system helped bridge PNG's traditional consensus-based decision-making with modern urban governance needs. It also created accountability mechanisms missing in our timeline, as leaders were responsible to identifiable constituencies rather than distant bureaucracies.

Additionally, a "Community Ranger" program established in 1980 created an intermediate security presence between formal police and community self-protection. These rangers, recruited from local communities but trained and supervised by the formal police, helped address security concerns before they escalated to the levels seen in our timeline.

Social Cohesion Initiatives

Recognizing the potential for ethnic tensions in a city receiving migrants from hundreds of different language groups, Port Moresby implemented deliberate social cohesion strategies:

The education system emphasized a dual identity—pride in specific cultural heritage alongside a shared Port Moresby and PNG identity
Public spaces were designed to facilitate inter-group interaction, including central markets and community centers
Cultural events celebrated the diversity of PNG's traditions while fostering interaction between groups

By 1985, surveys showed significantly higher levels of trust between ethnic groups in Port Moresby compared to our timeline, creating a foundation for more effective governance and economic development.

While still facing challenges—including budget constraints, some corruption, and the inevitable tensions of rapid urbanization—Port Moresby by the mid-1980s had established fundamentally different patterns of development than in our timeline. The foundations were laid for a different trajectory that would become increasingly apparent in subsequent decades.

Long-term Impact

Urban Development Patterns (1985-2000)

By the late 1980s, the divergence between our timeline's Port Moresby and the alternate version became increasingly pronounced. In the alternate timeline, the city's physical form evolved according to a polynucleated development model, with multiple connected centers rather than a single congested downtown.

Housing Transformation

The managed settlement approach evolved into a comprehensive housing strategy that dramatically altered Port Moresby's residential landscape:

By 1990, the Housing Authority had constructed over 15,000 units of affordable housing through various schemes
Informal settlements, rather than growing unchecked to house 45% of the population as in our timeline, were limited to about 20% of residents
A "settlement upgrading" program transformed earlier informal areas with infrastructure and tenure security
By 2000, approximately 70% of Port Moresby residents had access to clean water and basic sanitation, compared to less than 40% in our timeline

This housing transformation had profound knock-on effects. Public health improved significantly with better water and sanitation, reducing the disease burden that hampered development in our timeline. Security improved as neighborhoods developed stable community structures. The "urban villages" concept—adapting traditional communal living patterns to urban contexts—became an influential model studied by other developing nations.

Transportation Networks

Unlike our timeline, where transportation developed haphazardly around private vehicles despite low car ownership, alternate Port Moresby implemented a hierarchical transportation system:

A bus rapid transit (BRT) system connecting major nodes was operational by 1995
Dedicated pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure acknowledged that most residents did not own cars
Major road corridors were planned with future growth in mind, preventing the congestion that plagued our timeline
The harbor was developed with passenger ferry services connecting coastal settlements

This integrated approach to transportation reduced the isolation of peripheral settlements and supported economic development by facilitating workforce mobility. The transportation network design also guided development rather than following it, allowing for more coherent land use patterns.

Economic Development (1990-2010)

The alternative economic strategy produced gradual but significant diversification of Port Moresby's economy beyond government administration and support services for resource extraction.

Manufacturing and Service Sector Growth

The economic zones established in the early years expanded steadily:

By 1995, manufacturing accounted for approximately 15% of Port Moresby's economy, compared to less than 5% in our timeline
A light industrial park specializing in food processing, textiles, and simple consumer goods employed over 7,000 people by 2000
Service sectors, particularly in information technology and back-office processing, began emerging in the early 2000s
Tourism developed modestly but steadily, with Port Moresby positioning itself as a gateway to PNG's cultural and natural attractions

While never becoming an industrial powerhouse, this economic diversification provided crucial stability during resource price fluctuations that created boom-bust cycles in our timeline. Employment opportunities reduced the crime and social problems that deterred investment in our timeline, creating a virtuous cycle of stability and growth.

Financial Sector and Regional Hub Status

By the early 2000s, Port Moresby began establishing itself as a regional financial center for the Pacific:

The Port Moresby Stock Exchange, established in 1998, became a significant venue for resource company listings
Banking services expanded beyond the basics to include more sophisticated financial products
Regional offices for Pacific operations of international companies began choosing Port Moresby over Fiji or Australia due to improved security and infrastructure

This financial sector growth created high-skilled employment opportunities for educated Papua New Guineans who might otherwise have emigrated, retaining human capital crucial for development.

Governance Evolution (2000-2025)

Perhaps the most significant long-term divergence appeared in governance systems and their effectiveness:

Institution Building

The experimental hybrid governance model of the early years evolved into robust institutions:

District councils became effective vehicles for community participation in governance
The professional civil service developed stronger capacity, with reduced corruption compared to our timeline
Public service delivery, while still facing challenges, achieved significantly higher reliability in water, electricity, and waste management
Land administration systems became more effective, allowing for planned development while respecting traditional rights

These institutional improvements created a foundation for sustained development missing in our timeline. They also facilitated more effective use of natural resource revenues, with better linkages between extraction wealth and urban development needs.

Crime Reduction and Security Improvements

The most visible difference between the alternate Port Moresby and our timeline emerged in crime rates and security:

By 2010, violent crime rates had fallen to approximately 30% of the levels in our timeline
The "raskol" gang phenomenon that dominated our timeline was significantly diminished
Community-based security approaches, integrated with formal policing, created effective public safety systems
The security improvement removed a major barrier to investment and tourism

While security challenges remained, particularly in some peripheral areas, Port Moresby shed its reputation as one of the world's most dangerous cities. By 2020, it was considered a relatively safe urban center by regional standards.

Regional Influence and Model Status (2010-2025)

By the 2010s, alternate Port Moresby had become an influential development model for other Pacific island nations:

Delegations from Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and other Pacific nations regularly studied Port Moresby's approaches to urban management
The city hosted the Pacific Urban Forum in 2018, establishing itself as a knowledge center for urbanization issues in island contexts
International development organizations began documenting the "Port Moresby Model" as an alternative development approach for postcolonial cities

This status as a regional model and knowledge center created a source of pride and identity that contributed to social cohesion and continued improvement.

Contemporary Port Moresby (2025)

By 2025 in this alternate timeline, Port Moresby remains a developing city with ongoing challenges, but its trajectory and character differ dramatically from our timeline:

Population has grown to approximately 1 million, managed through planned expansion rather than uncontrolled sprawl
The city boasts a distinctive architectural style blending modern functionality with Melanesian design elements
A vibrant cultural scene celebrates PNG's diversity while creating shared urban identity
Environmental challenges are addressed through green infrastructure and climate adaptation planning
While economic inequalities persist, extreme poverty is significantly reduced compared to our timeline

The alternate Port Moresby stands as evidence that different development paths were possible for postcolonial Pacific cities, with choices made in the critical early independence years reverberating through decades of development.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Sarah Namunu, Professor of Urban Planning at the University of Papua New Guinea, offers this perspective: "What's most striking about this alternate development trajectory is how it challenges the fatalistic view that Port Moresby's troubles were inevitable consequences of rapid urbanization and limited resources. The counterfactual scenario demonstrates that with appropriate governance innovations and strategic planning early in the independence period, many of our current urban challenges might have been mitigated. The hybrid governance model that respects traditional structures while creating effective modern institutions is particularly intriguing as a missed opportunity. While we can't rewrite history, understanding these alternative possibilities can inform our approach to the next fifty years of development."

Professor James Hartung, Distinguished Fellow at the Australian National University's Pacific Studies Center, provides a more cautious assessment: "While this alternate timeline presents an optimistic view of what might have been possible with different early decisions, we should be careful not to underestimate the structural constraints facing Papua New Guinea. The global economic system, regional power dynamics, and internal challenges would have created significant headwinds even with better urban planning. That said, the counterfactual rightly identifies land management, governance innovation, and economic diversification as critical leverage points where different approaches might have yielded substantially better outcomes. The most valuable insight may be how path dependency in urban development makes early decisions disproportionately consequential."

Dr. Elizabeth Wari, Director of the Pacific Urban Development Institute, contextualizes the scenario within regional patterns: "This alternative development pathway for Port Moresby highlights a broader pattern across Oceania—the critical importance of adapting governance systems to local cultural contexts rather than importing models wholesale. Several Pacific nations that have more successfully integrated traditional governance with modern urban management, such as Samoa, show parallels to this hypothetical Port Moresby scenario. The contrast between this alternate timeline and actual outcomes underscores how conventional development approaches often failed to build on the cultural strengths of Pacific societies. As we face climate adaptation and other contemporary challenges, these 'roads not taken' offer valuable insights for future planning."