What If Renewable Energy Was Adopted Earlier?

The Actual History

The history of renewable energy stretches back millennia, with windmills, water wheels, and passive solar designs appearing in ancient civilizations. However, the modern renewable energy era began in earnest during the 1970s, catalyzed by the 1973 OPEC oil embargo and the subsequent energy crisis. As oil prices quadrupled, Western nations experienced fuel shortages, rationing, and economic disruption, prompting the first serious governmental interest in energy alternatives.

In the United States, President Jimmy Carter symbolized this brief period of renewable energy focus by installing solar panels on the White House in 1979 and establishing the Department of Energy. His administration introduced tax credits for renewable energy and funded research into solar, wind, and other alternative technologies. However, this momentum proved short-lived. When the Reagan administration took office in 1981, it slashed renewable energy research budgets by more than 80%, removed the White House solar panels, and eliminated many incentive programs.

Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, fossil fuels regained dominance as oil prices declined in real terms. While countries like Denmark and Germany maintained more consistent support for wind energy development, global investment in renewables remained relatively small. The nascent U.S. wind industry nearly collapsed after tax credits expired in 1985, and American leadership in solar technology was largely ceded to Japan and later China.

Climate change concerns began entering mainstream consciousness in the late 1980s, with the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 and the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. However, these developments did not immediately translate into substantial renewable energy policy. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol represented the first major international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, though the United States never ratified it.

The early 2000s saw renewables slowly regaining momentum through policies like Renewable Portfolio Standards in various U.S. states and feed-in tariffs in Europe, particularly Germany's Energiewende policy launched in 2000. The 2008 financial crisis counterintuitively helped accelerate renewable deployment, as many countries included green investments in their stimulus packages. Simultaneously, technological improvements and economies of scale began dramatically reducing the cost of wind turbines and solar panels.

The true inflection point came in the 2010s, when solar and wind energy reached grid parity in many markets—becoming cost-competitive with fossil fuels without subsidies. Between 2010 and 2020, solar photovoltaic costs fell by approximately 85%, while wind power costs fell by approximately 55%. By 2021, renewables accounted for nearly 30% of global electricity generation, with solar and wind being the fastest-growing sources.

Despite this progress, the delayed and piecemeal adoption of renewable energy has meant that global carbon emissions continued rising until the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 (with a rebound afterward). The window to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—the ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement—has narrowed significantly, with many climate scientists now considering this target effectively out of reach.

The Point of Divergence

What if renewable energy technologies had been embraced and scaled decades earlier than in our timeline? In this alternate scenario, we explore a world where the 1970s energy crisis catalyzed not just temporary interest but sustained, transformative investment in renewable technologies.

The point of divergence centers on the critical period between 1973 and 1981, when multiple pathways existed for energy policy in the United States and other developed nations. Several plausible changes could have set history on a different course:

First, the U.S. presidential election of 1976 might have produced a different outcome or a different policy approach. Imagine if President Carter had framed renewable energy not merely as a response to scarcity (his famous "moral equivalent of war" speech) but as an economic and technological opportunity that transcended partisan politics. Alternatively, imagine if Gerald Ford had won reelection and, influenced by energy pragmatists in his administration, had established renewable energy as a Republican priority tied to energy independence and national security.

Second, the oil price collapse of the early 1980s might have been less severe or less influential on policy. If OPEC had maintained greater discipline or if global demand had remained higher, fossil fuels might not have regained their aura of cheap abundance that undermined support for alternatives.

Third, early technological breakthroughs in renewable energy efficiency or storage could have accelerated adoption. Several promising developments were underway in the late 1970s, including innovations at the Solar Energy Research Institute (later NREL) and various university labs working on photovoltaics and wind turbine design.

In our alternate timeline, these factors combine: President Carter succeeds in establishing a bipartisan consensus around renewable energy development as both an environmental and national security imperative. He secures long-term funding commitments that survive the transition to a new administration, framing the initiative as America's "Energy Independence Project" with echoes of the Apollo program's broad appeal. Meanwhile, early breakthroughs in thin-film solar cell efficiency and vertical-axis wind turbine design in 1978-1979 demonstrate the viability of these technologies sooner than in our timeline.

When Ronald Reagan takes office in 1981, rather than dismantling renewable energy programs, his administration rebrands them as market-driven approaches to energy independence and American technological leadership in emerging industries. The White House solar panels remain in place, becoming a symbol of American innovation rather than environmental activism.

Immediate Aftermath

Policy Continuity and Expansion (1981-1985)

In this alternate timeline, the Reagan administration maintains and reconfigures Carter's renewable energy programs rather than dismantling them. The Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI) in Colorado sees its budget increase rather than decrease, framed as part of America's technological competition with Japan and Germany. Reagan's "Morning in America" optimism extends to energy innovation, with the president frequently citing renewable energy as an example of American ingenuity and free enterprise solving problems that government-controlled economies cannot.

The critical 1980 Energy Security Act, which established tax credits for renewable energy, is not allowed to expire in 1985 but is instead renewed with modifications that gradually decrease subsidy levels while increasing research funding. This provides market certainty that allows the nascent U.S. solar and wind industries to plan for long-term growth rather than facing boom-and-bust cycles tied to policy changes.

In Europe, countries like Denmark, Germany, and Sweden, which had already shown interest in renewable energy, respond to American initiatives by accelerating their own programs. The European Economic Community establishes its first coordinated renewable energy targets in 1982, three decades earlier than similar frameworks in our timeline.

Technology Acceleration (1982-1988)

The sustained funding and market incentives lead to faster technological improvements in key renewable technologies:

Solar Photovoltaics: By 1985, concentrated research efforts lead to commercial silicon solar cells achieving 15% efficiency (compared to 10-12% in our timeline), while experimental cells reach 20%. More importantly, manufacturing processes improve faster, reducing costs by approximately a third compared to our timeline during this period.
Wind Energy: The continuous policy support prevents the collapse of California's wind industry that occurred in our timeline after tax credits expired. Instead, investment continues in more reliable turbine designs, and the industry begins expanding beyond California to states like Texas, Iowa, and Minnesota by the mid-1980s.
Energy Storage: Research into improved battery technologies receives consistent funding, leading to the commercial introduction of advanced lead-acid and early sodium-sulfur batteries for grid storage applications by 1988, around a decade earlier than in our timeline.

These technological advances feed a virtuous cycle of increased adoption, further cost reductions, and additional research. By 1988, the cost of solar power has fallen to approximately $5 per watt (in 2025 dollars), still expensive compared to conventional generation but far below the $10+ per watt of our timeline at that time.

Early Climate Action (1985-1990)

The emergence of climate change as a political issue in the mid-1980s occurs in an environment already more receptive to energy alternatives. When NASA scientist James Hansen makes his landmark testimony to Congress in 1988 about the greenhouse effect, the policy discussion isn't about whether to act but how to accelerate existing renewable energy transitions.

The first Bush administration, building on the renewable energy consensus, hosts the "World Climate and Energy Summit" in 1990, which establishes more ambitious targets than the actual Earth Summit would two years later. With renewable energy already providing close to one percent of U.S. electricity (compared to a negligible amount in our timeline), the goal of reaching 10% by 2000 seems challenging but achievable.

The 1991 Gulf War reinforces the national security argument for energy diversification, as Americans witness the geopolitical complications of oil dependence firsthand. President Bush, with his oil industry background, surprises many by declaring in the war's aftermath: "Our national security requires not just military strength but energy resilience. Every solar panel and wind turbine we install makes America more secure."

Market Transformation (1988-1995)

By the early 1990s, renewable energy begins moving from niche applications to mainstream consideration. Utility-scale solar and wind projects become increasingly common, particularly in the American Southwest and Midwest. The 1992 Energy Policy Act includes provisions specifically designed to integrate renewable energy into wholesale electricity markets, adding to the investment tax credits that have been maintained since the Carter administration.

Internationally, the renewable energy transition is highly uneven but gaining momentum. Japan launches its "New Sunshine Project" in 1990, investing heavily in solar manufacturing. Germany introduces its first feed-in tariff in 1991, five years earlier than in our timeline. Denmark already generates nearly 5% of its electricity from wind by 1995, establishing itself as a global leader in turbine manufacturing.

The fall of the Soviet Union creates an unexpected opportunity as former Eastern Bloc countries, upgrading their energy infrastructure, incorporate more renewable sources than they would have in our timeline. Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary all establish renewable energy targets as part of their modernization programs, seeing this as part of their reorientation toward Western Europe.

Long-term Impact

Energy Markets and Infrastructure (1995-2010)

By the turn of the millennium, renewable energy's earlier adoption significantly alters the trajectory of global energy systems. In our alternate timeline, renewables account for approximately 8-10% of global electricity generation by 2000, compared to roughly 2% (excluding large hydropower) in our actual timeline.

This earlier scaling creates different infrastructure development patterns:

Grid Development: The need to accommodate intermittent renewable sources drives earlier investment in grid modernization. The concept of "smart grids" emerges in the late 1990s rather than the late 2000s, with pilot projects in California, Denmark, and Japan demonstrating how digital technology can optimize electricity distribution.
Energy Storage: Utility-scale battery storage becomes commercially viable around 2005, nearly a decade earlier than in our timeline. Meanwhile, pumped hydro storage sees a renaissance in the 1990s as utilities recognize the need for load-balancing solutions.
Distributed Generation: Rooftop solar becomes economically viable for homeowners in sunny regions by the early 2000s, creating the beginnings of a prosumer electricity market where consumers also produce power. By 2010, over 15% of single-family homes in California and Arizona have solar installations.
Fossil Fuel Infrastructure: Perhaps most significantly, many natural gas plants and coal facilities that were built in our timeline never materialize. The "dash for gas" that occurred in the 1990s and 2000s is moderated, with more power needs met through renewable expansion.

These infrastructure differences create path dependencies that accelerate the renewable transition. By 2010, new renewable energy is cheaper than new fossil fuel generation in many markets, reaching this tipping point approximately 5-7 years earlier than in our timeline.

Climate Change Mitigation (2000-2025)

The earlier adoption of renewable energy substantially alters the global emissions trajectory:

Peak Emissions: Global carbon emissions from energy peak around 2010 rather than continuing to rise through 2019 as in our timeline. This earlier peak occurs as renewable adoption rates in developing economies like China and India accelerate faster than their expanding energy demands.
Cumulative Emissions: By 2025, cumulative carbon emissions since 1990 are approximately 15-20% lower than in our timeline. While this doesn't prevent climate change, it significantly improves the odds of limiting warming to manageable levels.
Climate Politics: With visible progress in decarbonization, climate politics becomes less polarized in many countries. The successful economic integration of renewables undermines arguments that climate action necessarily harms economic growth.
Adaptation Needs: While climate adaptation remains necessary, the reduced warming trajectory means that extreme weather events intensify more gradually, giving communities more time to prepare and adapt.

By 2025 in this alternate timeline, global average temperatures have risen approximately 1.0°C above pre-industrial levels (compared to 1.2°C in our timeline)—a modest but meaningful difference that substantially reduces the risk of crossing critical climate tipping points.

Geopolitical Reshaping (1995-2025)

The accelerated renewable transition fundamentally alters global power dynamics in multiple ways:

Reduced Oil Dependence: By 2010, global oil consumption peaks and begins declining as transportation electrification accelerates. This reduces the geopolitical leverage of oil-producing nations and decreases the strategic importance of Middle Eastern oil supplies.
Russia's Trajectory: With fossil fuel exports representing a smaller portion of its economy, Russia faces pressure to diversify earlier. This potentially creates a different post-Soviet development path, with greater incentives for economic modernization rather than resource extraction.
Middle East Transformation: Oil-producing nations in the Persian Gulf recognize the threat to their economic model earlier and invest more aggressively in economic diversification. Saudi Arabia launches its economic transformation program in the early 2000s rather than 2016, focusing on renewable energy export potential.
China's Manufacturing Strategy: China still emerges as a solar manufacturing powerhouse, but faces more established competition from American, Japanese, and European firms. This creates a more distributed global supply chain for clean energy technologies rather than the Chinese dominance of our timeline.
Developing Nations: Countries in Africa and Southeast Asia largely leapfrog fossil fuel infrastructure, moving directly to distributed renewable systems for rural electrification. This accelerates economic development while avoiding carbon-intensive growth.

Technological Synchronicity (2010-2025)

The earlier renewable energy transition synchronizes with other technological developments in transformative ways:

Electric Vehicles: The improved economics and infrastructure for renewable electricity accelerates electric vehicle adoption. By 2020, EVs represent approximately 25% of new vehicle sales globally (compared to about 5% in our timeline).
Digital Technology: The development of smart grids creates applications for digital technologies, with energy management becoming an early use case for the Internet of Things. By 2015, most new homes in developed nations have smart energy management systems.
Hydrogen Economy: Green hydrogen (produced through electrolysis powered by renewable electricity) becomes commercially viable in industrial applications by the late 2010s, enabling the decarbonization of sectors like steel and cement production.
Agricultural Transformation: With energy costs representing a smaller portion of agricultural inputs, sustainable farming practices become more economically viable. This leads to faster adoption of precision agriculture techniques that reduce both emissions and environmental impacts.

By 2025 in our alternate timeline, the global energy system looks remarkably different: renewable sources provide approximately 60% of global electricity (compared to about 30% in our actual timeline), and final energy consumption is significantly more electrified across all sectors.

Economic and Social Impacts (2000-2025)

The accelerated renewable transition creates different economic winners and losers:

Job Creation: The renewable energy sector employs over 30 million people globally by 2025, more than triple the number in our timeline. These jobs are more geographically distributed than fossil fuel employment, revitalizing many rural and deindustrialized regions.
Energy Democracy: The distributed nature of many renewable technologies democratizes energy production, with community-owned solar and wind projects becoming common in many countries. This shifts power away from large utilities and toward local communities.
Energy Poverty: In developing nations, distributed renewable systems enable faster progress in eliminating energy poverty. By 2020, over 95% of the global population has access to electricity (compared to about 90% in our timeline).
Just Transition: With the energy transition occurring more gradually over decades rather than accelerating rapidly as in our timeline, fossil fuel-dependent regions have more time to adapt and diversify their economies. This reduces the political backlash against climate policies.

However, this transition is not without challenges. Regions heavily dependent on fossil fuel extraction still face significant economic disruption, and not all workers successfully transition to new industries. The critical difference is that these changes occur gradually enough for adaptive policies to be implemented effectively.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Amara Nwosu, Professor of Energy Economics at the London School of Economics, offers this perspective: "The renewable energy transition we're witnessing today was technically possible decades earlier. The barriers were never primarily technological but institutional and political. In this alternate timeline, the establishment of stable, long-term policy frameworks in the 1980s instead of the 2010s gives markets the certainty needed for sustained investment. The cumulative effect of these earlier investments would be profound—not just environmentally but economically. Today's emerging economies would have industrialized along fundamentally different, cleaner pathways with enormous benefits for public health and climate stability."

Professor Michael Chen, Director of the Climate Systems Analysis Group at MIT, provides a more cautious assessment: "While earlier renewable energy adoption would unquestionably improve our climate outlook, we shouldn't overstate the impact. Even in this alternate timeline, the institutional and infrastructural inertia of global energy systems would have slowed the transition. The key advantage would be time—the gradual decarbonization starting decades earlier would give natural systems and human societies more opportunity to adapt to the climate changes already locked in. The difference between 1.0°C and 1.2°C of warming by 2025 might seem small, but it represents trillions of dollars in avoided damages and millions of lives improved or saved."

Dr. Elena Rodriguez, Senior Fellow at the World Resources Institute, emphasizes the geopolitical dimensions: "The most fascinating aspect of this alternate energy timeline is how it reshapes global power dynamics. Nations we now identify as 'petrostates' would have recognized the limited future of their economic model much earlier, potentially avoiding the 'resource curse' that has undermined governance in many oil-rich nations. Meanwhile, countries that took early leadership in renewable technologies would have established dominant positions in these growth industries. Denmark's actual success in wind energy—building a globally competitive industry despite being a small nation—gives us a glimpse of what might have been possible on a much larger scale if other nations had made similar commitments in the 1980s rather than decades later."