What If Robert Kennedy Wasn't Assassinated?

The Actual History

On June 5, 1968, Senator Robert F. Kennedy was shot at the Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles, shortly after delivering a victory speech celebrating his win in the California Democratic presidential primary. The perpetrator, Sirhan Sirhan, a 24-year-old Palestinian immigrant, fired multiple shots in the crowded hotel kitchen pantry as Kennedy was making his way through after the speech. Kennedy was shot three times, with one bullet fatally entering his brain. He died the following day, June 6, at the age of 42.

The assassination came during one of the most tumultuous years in American history. Just two months earlier, on April 4, civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. had been assassinated in Memphis, triggering riots across the country. The Vietnam War was reaching its bloody peak with the Tet Offensive earlier that year, which helped turn American public opinion decisively against the conflict. President Lyndon B. Johnson had shocked the nation in March by announcing he would not seek reelection.

Kennedy had entered the presidential race on March 16, 1968, challenging the anti-war candidate Senator Eugene McCarthy for the Democratic nomination. As the younger brother of assassinated President John F. Kennedy, RFK had served as U.S. Attorney General from 1961 to 1964 and was elected Senator from New York in 1964. By 1968, he had evolved into a passionate advocate for civil rights, economic justice, and ending the Vietnam War.

After Kennedy's death, the Democratic nomination process continued in disarray. Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who had not competed in any primaries but had Johnson's support, secured the nomination at a chaotic Chicago convention marked by violent protests. Republican Richard Nixon went on to narrowly defeat Humphrey in the general election, winning the Electoral College 301-191, but the popular vote by less than 1%.

Nixon's presidency would be defined by the continuation of the Vietnam War (though he eventually began the process of American withdrawal), the opening of relations with China, détente with the Soviet Union, and ultimately the Watergate scandal that forced his resignation in 1974. Domestically, despite being a Republican, Nixon oversaw the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, and other significant expansions of government regulation.

Kennedy's assassination extinguished a political career that many believed was destined for the presidency. It deprived the progressive, anti-war movement of its most prominent champion at a critical moment and potentially altered the course of American politics for decades to come. The Democratic Party would not win another presidential election until 1976, with Jimmy Carter, and would struggle to recapture the coalition of working-class whites, African Americans, and young voters that Kennedy had begun to assemble in his brief 1968 campaign.

The Point of Divergence

What if Robert Kennedy had survived the assassination attempt on June 5, 1968? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where fate intervened in the Ambassador Hotel kitchen pantry, sparing Kennedy from his tragic end and potentially changing the course of American political history.

Several plausible variations could have prevented the fatal shooting. Perhaps hotel security implemented slightly different protocols that night, keeping the kitchen area more secure or directing Kennedy through an alternate route. Maybe Kennedy's bodyguard, former FBI agent Bill Barry, positioned himself differently in those crucial moments, shielding Kennedy from Sirhan's bullets. Rosey Grier and Rafer Johnson, Olympic athletes in Kennedy's entourage who subdued Sirhan after the first shots, might have reacted a split second earlier, preventing the most serious wounds.

Alternatively, minor changes in the trajectory of Sirhan's bullets could have made the difference between life and death. In our actual history, one bullet struck Kennedy's brain, causing fatal damage. In this alternate timeline, perhaps that bullet grazed his head instead of penetrating his skull, resulting in a serious but non-fatal injury.

The most dramatic possibility involves the controversial aspects of the actual assassination. Some researchers have argued that a second shooter was involved, given ballistic evidence suggesting Kennedy was shot from behind while Sirhan was in front of him. In this alternate timeline, perhaps this hypothetical second gunman was thwarted by a chance movement of someone in the crowd, or was spotted before being able to take a clear shot.

Regardless of the specific mechanism, in this alternate timeline, Kennedy survives the assassination attempt with injuries serious enough to temporarily sideline him from the campaign trail but not fatal or permanently debilitating. After emergency surgery and a period of recovery, he returns to the presidential race by late June, transforming the dynamics of the 1968 election and potentially reshaping American politics for decades to come.

Immediate Aftermath

Impact on the Democratic Primary

Kennedy's survival fundamentally alters the trajectory of the 1968 Democratic nomination process. His victory in California had already given him crucial momentum, and the sympathy generated by the assassination attempt creates a powerful narrative of resilience and destiny that resonates with voters.

While recovering in the hospital, Kennedy benefits from an outpouring of public support. His absence from the campaign trail for several weeks paradoxically strengthens his position, as Democrats are reluctant to criticize a wounded hero. Eugene McCarthy's campaign loses momentum, unable to effectively compete against a rival who now embodies both hope and indomitable courage.

Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who in our timeline secured the nomination without entering a single primary, faces mounting pressure to step aside for Kennedy. President Johnson, whose relationship with Kennedy had been fraught, finds himself in a difficult position. While still supporting Humphrey privately, Johnson modulates his public statements, unwilling to appear opposed to the recovering Kennedy.

By mid-July, Kennedy returns to limited campaigning, making carefully staged appearances that highlight both his recovery and his determination. The narrative of a Kennedy rising from near-death to lead the nation proves irresistible to many Democratic voters and delegates. At the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in late August, a dramatically different scene unfolds than in our timeline:

Unified Convention: Instead of the chaos and police violence that marred the 1968 convention in our timeline, Kennedy's presence and his clear anti-war stance help unite the party. While protests still occur outside the convention hall, they are generally more peaceful and celebratory.
Nomination Speech: Kennedy, still showing signs of his injuries but radiating determination, delivers an acceptance speech that combines his brother John's idealism with a newer, tougher edge forged by the violence of the era. His passionate calls for racial reconciliation, economic justice, and an end to the war in Vietnam electrify the convention hall and television audiences.
Vice Presidential Selection: In a move to unite the party, Kennedy selects Senator Fred Harris of Oklahoma, a populist with appeal to both working-class whites and minority voters, as his running mate, rather than choosing a more establishment figure.

The 1968 General Election

The Kennedy-Harris ticket presents a formidable challenge to Republican nominee Richard Nixon in the general election campaign. Several key dynamics shape the race:

Vietnam War Focus: Kennedy makes ending the war his central campaign promise, contrasting sharply with Nixon's vague "secret plan" to end the conflict. Kennedy's moral authority on the issue is enhanced by his own brush with violence.
Law and Order vs. Justice: Nixon's emphasis on "law and order" in response to urban unrest faces Kennedy's more nuanced message of addressing root causes of poverty and discrimination while still maintaining public safety. Kennedy's personal experience with violence gives him credibility when discussing crime.
Wallace Factor: Third-party candidate George Wallace, the segregationist former governor of Alabama, still attracts significant support in the South. However, Kennedy's working-class appeal reduces Wallace's inroads among Northern white voters compared to our timeline.
Media Dynamics: Television coverage heavily favors Kennedy, whose charisma translates well to the medium. The narrative of his recovery and return becomes a compelling American story that transcends politics.

As Election Day approaches, polls show an extremely tight race. Nixon's disciplined campaign and appeal to the "silent majority" keeps him competitive, but Kennedy's momentum proves decisive. On November 5, 1968, Robert Kennedy narrowly wins the presidency with 290 electoral votes to Nixon's 191 and Wallace's 57. The popular vote is even closer, with Kennedy winning by just under 2% nationwide.

Initial Presidential Priorities

Taking office in January 1969, President Robert Kennedy faces immediate challenges:

Vietnam Peace Initiative: Kennedy immediately halts the bombing of North Vietnam and initiates direct negotiations with Hanoi, appointing a high-level peace envoy to begin the process of American withdrawal while seeking guarantees for South Vietnam.
Domestic Unrest: Urban violence decreases significantly following Kennedy's election, as his credibility with both African American communities and working-class whites helps reduce tensions. Kennedy launches targeted economic initiatives in America's most distressed urban areas.
Economic Challenges: Inflationary pressures require difficult economic decisions. Kennedy appoints a mix of traditional liberal economists and more innovative thinkers to address growing economic concerns while maintaining his commitment to anti-poverty programs.
Cabinet Formation: Kennedy's cabinet reflects his coalition, combining established Democratic figures with younger progressive voices. He makes history by appointing the first African American cabinet secretary outside of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, naming economist Andrew Brimmer as Secretary of Commerce.

The assassination attempt continues to affect Kennedy physically—he walks with a slight limp and occasionally suffers from headaches—but these physical limitations only enhance his public image as a leader who persevered through personal tragedy to serve his country.

Long-term Impact

Reshaping American Foreign Policy

Vietnam and Southeast Asia

President Kennedy's approach to Vietnam marks a significant departure from both Johnson's escalation and Nixon's gradual withdrawal in our timeline:

Accelerated Withdrawal: By late 1969, Kennedy implements a phased withdrawal of American combat troops, to be completed by the end of 1970—significantly faster than Nixon's "Vietnamization" process in our timeline.
Peace Negotiations: Kennedy's administration negotiates an earlier version of the Paris Peace Accords, completed by mid-1970. The agreement includes international peacekeeping forces and substantial economic aid to South Vietnam to bolster its chances of survival.
Regional Outcome: Despite Kennedy's efforts, South Vietnam still falls to North Vietnamese forces, though the collapse occurs in 1973 rather than 1975. However, Kennedy's more decisive approach prevents the expansion of the conflict into Cambodia, sparing that nation from the Khmer Rouge genocide that killed millions in our timeline.
Refugee Response: Recognizing America's moral obligation, Kennedy implements a comprehensive Vietnamese refugee resettlement program, welcoming hundreds of thousands of South Vietnamese allies to the United States earlier and more systematically than occurred in our timeline.

Cold War Relations

Kennedy pursues a distinct path in Cold War diplomacy that blends his brother John's idealism with a more pragmatic recognition of geopolitical realities:

Soviet Relations: Building on the foundation of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty negotiated during his brother's administration, Kennedy pursues earlier and more comprehensive arms limitation agreements with the Soviet Union. SALT I is signed in 1971, three years earlier than in our timeline.
China Opening: While Nixon is credited with opening relations with China in our timeline, Kennedy pursues a similar path, recognizing the strategic value of breaking the Sino-Soviet alliance. His administration establishes diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China in 1972, following a slightly different approach that places more emphasis on human rights alongside strategic considerations.
Middle East Policy: Kennedy's more balanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict—shaped partly by his own experience with political violence—leads to earlier American recognition of the legitimate grievances on both sides. While still maintaining strong support for Israel, Kennedy becomes the first president to formally acknowledge the need for Palestinian self-determination.

Domestic Transformation

Civil Rights and Social Justice

Kennedy's presidency accelerates progress on civil rights and creates a different trajectory for race relations in America:

Comprehensive Civil Rights Legislation: Building on the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Act of 1965, Kennedy pushes through additional legislation addressing housing discrimination, employment practices, and criminal justice reform.
Economic Justice Initiatives: The Kennedy administration implements more targeted and effective anti-poverty programs than the broader Great Society approach of the Johnson years. The "Kennedy Development Bank" provides loans and technical assistance to minority entrepreneurs and community development corporations.
Criminal Justice Reform: Kennedy initiates the first comprehensive reform of the federal criminal justice system, emphasizing rehabilitation, community policing, and addressing the root causes of crime. This approach, combined with Kennedy's moral authority on both law enforcement and justice, helps reduce the political polarization around crime that characterized our timeline.

Economic Policy and Healthcare

Kennedy's economic policies represent a blend of traditional Democratic priorities and innovative approaches:

Economic Framework: Facing the same inflationary pressures and economic challenges of the early 1970s, Kennedy implements wage and price controls earlier and more strategically than Nixon did in our timeline, helping to moderate the impact of the 1973 oil crisis.
Healthcare Reform: Rather than attempting a comprehensive national health insurance program immediately, Kennedy pursues an incremental approach, first establishing a program for children and expanding Medicare to cover those with disabilities. By his second term, he successfully pushes through a public option that allows Americans to buy into a government insurance program alongside private options—achieving significant coverage expansion while avoiding the political backlash that comprehensive reform might have triggered.
Environmental Protection: Kennedy establishes the Environmental Protection Agency as Nixon did in our timeline, but with a broader mandate and more substantial enforcement powers. His administration also passes more comprehensive clean air and water legislation, motivated in part by Kennedy's personal commitment to conservation issues.

Political Landscape Transformation

Party Realignment

Kennedy's presidency fundamentally alters the trajectory of American political coalition-building:

Democratic Coalition: Kennedy maintains the New Deal coalition for longer than in our timeline, keeping working-class white voters aligned with the Democratic Party while still advancing civil rights. His emphasis on economic populism alongside social progressivism creates a template for Democratic success that prevents the party's collapse among white working-class voters in the 1970s and 1980s.
Republican Evolution: Without the Nixon presidency and Watergate scandal, the Republican Party evolves differently. The moderate wing of the party remains stronger, with figures like Nelson Rockefeller exerting more influence. The conservative revolution associated with Reagan in our timeline still occurs but is delayed and takes a somewhat different form.
Third-Party Movements: Kennedy's ability to address economic anxiety among working-class voters prevents the emergence of some of the populist third-party movements that characterized the 1990s in our timeline.

Constitutional and Electoral Reform

Kennedy's brush with assassination motivates him to pursue structural reforms:

Electoral College Reform: Having won the presidency while recognizing the potential for Electoral College outcomes that defy the popular vote, Kennedy successfully champions an Electoral College reform package that maintains the state-based system but eliminates the winner-take-all approach, implementing proportional allocation of electors in each state.
Campaign Finance: The Kennedy administration passes the first comprehensive campaign finance reform in 1971, with stricter limits on contributions and spending than the post-Watergate reforms of our timeline.
Presidential Succession: Kennedy's experience prompts a reevaluation of presidential security protocols and succession procedures, resulting in clearer guidelines for temporary presidential incapacity and enhanced protection for presidential candidates.

Legacy to 2025

By 2025, the effects of Kennedy's survival and presidency continue to shape American society and politics:

Political Discourse: American political dialogue remains less polarized than in our timeline. Kennedy's ability to speak to both working-class economic concerns and progressive social values created a template for political communication that subsequent leaders have followed.
Foreign Policy Consensus: A stronger bipartisan consensus exists around American engagement with the world, balancing idealism with pragmatism. The idea that America can pursue both its values and its interests simultaneously remains more viable in foreign policy thinking.
Social Safety Net: The American welfare state is more robust but also more efficient, with Kennedy's emphasis on targeted programs rather than universal entitlements having influenced social policy development for decades.
Unresolved Tensions: Despite Kennedy's progressive legacy, America still grapples with racial inequality, economic disparity, and political division, though these challenges manifest in different ways than in our timeline.
Kennedy Family: The survival of Robert Kennedy alters the trajectory of America's most famous political family. His children pursue varied paths in public service, but the "Kennedy curse" notion that emerged after so many family tragedies never becomes part of the American consciousness.

Expert Opinions

Dr. James Rosenthal, Professor of American Political History at Columbia University, offers this perspective: "Robert Kennedy's survival would have represented the most significant 'road not taken' in post-war American politics. His unique ability to speak authentically to diverse constituencies—from inner-city African Americans to working-class whites—made him potentially the last figure who could have held together the New Deal coalition while advancing civil rights. The fracturing of that coalition in our timeline led to decades of realignment that fundamentally reshaped American politics. With Kennedy's survival, we likely would have seen a different pattern of political development, with less severe polarization along cultural and racial lines, though economic tensions would surely have remained."

Dr. Elena Martinez, Distinguished Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, suggests: "Kennedy's approach to Vietnam would have been fundamentally different from either Johnson's escalation or Nixon's slow withdrawal. As someone who had evolved from a Cold War hawk to a skeptic of military intervention, Kennedy would have likely ended American involvement more rapidly, accepting the geopolitical consequences as the price of national healing. This would have had cascading effects throughout American foreign policy, potentially leading to earlier détente with communist powers but also a clearer-eyed recognition of the limits of American military power before the costly lessons of our timeline."

Professor Thomas Washington, author of "Race and Class in Modern America" and historian at Howard University, notes: "Kennedy's unique credibility with both Black Americans and white working-class voters created the potential for a different trajectory in race relations. His moral authority, especially after surviving an assassination attempt, might have enabled him to address structural racism more effectively while preventing the white backlash that characterized the 1970s and beyond. That said, we should be cautious about overstating what even a sympathetic white president could have accomplished against centuries of racial inequality. Kennedy would have faced the same entrenched interests and structural barriers that have frustrated racial progress throughout American history, though perhaps with more political capital to spend on the effort."