What If Rome Never Became a Republic?

The Actual History

The transition from Kingdom to Republic represents one of the most consequential political transformations in Western history. The Roman Kingdom, established traditionally in 753 BCE with the legendary founding of Rome by Romulus, was ruled by seven successive kings. The early monarchs were Latin and Sabine, but the later kings, beginning with Lucius Tarquinius Priscus (the Elder), were of Etruscan origin. The Etruscan influence brought significant cultural and technological advancements to early Rome, including engineering expertise, religious practices, and artistic innovations.

The final king of Rome was Lucius Tarquinius Superbus (Tarquin the Proud), who took the throne by force around 534 BCE after murdering his predecessor and father-in-law, Servius Tullius. According to Roman historians like Livy and Cicero, Tarquin's rule became increasingly tyrannical. He executed or exiled political rivals, ruled without the approval of the Senate, and engaged in construction projects that placed heavy burdens on the commoners.

The breaking point came in 509 BCE when Tarquin's son, Sextus Tarquinius, raped Lucretia, a noblewoman and wife of Tarquin's relative Collatinus. Following this outrage, Lucius Junius Brutus, a nephew of Tarquin who had previously feigned stupidity to avoid the king's suspicions, led a revolt against the monarchy. Lucretia, unwilling to live with the dishonor despite being assured she was not at fault, committed suicide after revealing what had happened and calling for vengeance.

Brutus, along with Lucretia's husband Collatinus, Publius Valerius Publicola, and Lucretius Tricipitinus, rallied the Roman people and army against Tarquin. While the king was away on a military campaign at Ardea, the conspirators seized control of Rome and closed the city gates to prevent Tarquin's return. The Senate formalized the expulsion of the Tarquins and abolished the monarchy.

In place of the monarchy, the Romans established a republic governed by two annually elected magistrates initially called praetors (later consuls). The first consuls were Brutus himself and Collatinus, though the latter was soon forced to resign due to his family connection to the Tarquins.

The early Republic faced immediate threats from Tarquin, who sought to regain his throne. He first conspired with a group of young aristocrats in Rome, including Brutus' own sons, who were subsequently executed by their father when the plot was discovered. Tarquin then allied with the Etruscan city of Veii and later with Lars Porsena of Clusium to attack Rome. Despite these threats, the young Republic survived.

The Republican system evolved over the following centuries, developing complex constitutional mechanisms including various magistracies, the expanded role of the Senate, and assemblies that gave citizens a voice in governance. Though flawed and often dominated by patrician families, the Republic lasted nearly five centuries until it gradually transformed into the Roman Empire following the civil wars of the 1st century BCE, with Augustus becoming the first emperor in 27 BCE.

The Roman Republic profoundly influenced Western political thought and institutions, particularly in its concepts of representative government, checks and balances, term limits, and written law. Its legacy directly shaped the political systems of modern democracies, including the United States, whose founding fathers drew explicit inspiration from the Roman model.

The Point of Divergence

What if Rome never transitioned from monarchy to republic in 509 BCE? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where the revolutionary spark that overthrew the Tarquins and established Republican governance never ignited, leaving the Roman Kingdom intact and fundamentally altering the development of Western political systems.

Several plausible variations could have prevented this pivotal transformation:

Scenario 1: The Lucretia Incident Never Occurs The traditional catalyst for the revolution—Sextus Tarquinius' rape of Lucretia—might never have happened. Perhaps Sextus, known for his impulsive nature, died earlier in battle during one of Rome's many conflicts with neighboring peoples. Without this inciting incident, the aristocratic families might have continued to accommodate Tarquin's rule despite their grievances.

Scenario 2: Failed Conspiracy Lucius Junius Brutus might have failed in his conspiracy against Tarquin. Perhaps his pretense of being dim-witted was discovered, leading to his execution before he could organize resistance. Alternatively, the conspiracy might have been betrayed by one of its members, allowing Tarquin to return from his military campaign at Ardea and crush the rebellion before it gained momentum.

Scenario 3: Successful Etruscan Intervention In our timeline, after his expulsion, Tarquin sought help from Etruscan allies. In this alternate scenario, perhaps the Etruscan League mounted a more united and powerful intervention, allowing Tarquin to reclaim his throne and execute the republican leaders. This could have happened if Lars Porsena of Clusium had decided to fully commit to restoring Tarquin rather than merely seeking to expand his own influence.

Scenario 4: Constitutional Reform Under Monarchy Most intriguingly, perhaps Tarquin the Proud, sensing growing discontent, implemented political reforms that addressed the aristocracy's grievances while preserving the monarchical system. A more consultative approach with the Senate, combined with popular infrastructure projects and military successes, might have created a reformed monarchy that satisfied enough powerful stakeholders to prevent revolution.

For this alternate timeline, we'll focus primarily on the fourth scenario: Tarquin the Proud averts revolution through strategic reforms and compromise, establishing a more stable Etruscan-Roman monarchy that endures beyond 509 BCE. This creates a fundamentally different trajectory for Rome and, consequently, for the development of Western political systems and cultural institutions.

Immediate Aftermath

Political Reconfiguration in Rome

The survival of the Roman monarchy beyond 509 BCE would have immediately altered Rome's internal power dynamics. Rather than the dual consulship of the historical Republic, executive power would have remained concentrated in the monarch, though likely with concessions to the aristocratic families who, in our timeline, became the driving force behind the Republic.

Reformed Royal Council: Tarquin, having recognized the danger of alienating the powerful noble families, would likely have expanded the role of the royal advisory council (the precursor to the Senate). This body would have gained more formalized powers of consultation on matters of taxation, law, and military affairs, though the king would retain final authority.

Hereditary Succession Crisis: By 509-508 BCE, Tarquin was already elderly. The immediate question of succession would have loomed large. His sons—including the notorious Sextus—would have been the obvious heirs, but their unpopularity might have prompted Tarquin to consider alternatives from his extended family or even from allied Etruscan nobles. This succession process might have established important precedents for how future transitions of power would occur.

Codified Legal Reforms: One of the early Republic's achievements was the creation of the Twelve Tables, Rome's first written legal code. In our alternate timeline, similar pressures for legal certainty and protection against arbitrary rule would have existed. Tarquin or his immediate successor might have implemented their own legal codification as a stabilizing measure, but with stronger provisions for royal authority.

Rome's Relationships with Neighbors

The continued Etruscan monarchy would have significantly altered Rome's relations with neighboring powers, particularly the Latin League and other Etruscan cities.

Latin League Relations: In our timeline, the early Republic formed alliances with the Latin League to counter Etruscan threats. In this alternate history, Rome under continued Etruscan rule would have maintained a more antagonistic relationship with the Latin cities. Rather than eventual assimilation into a Roman-led system, the Latins might have formed a more coherent opposition bloc.

Etruscan Alliance System: As an Etruscan-led monarchy, Rome would have been more closely integrated with other Etruscan cities like Veii, Tarquinii, and Clusium. Rather than Rome's historical path of conquering these neighbors, we might have seen a confederation of Etruscan city-states with Rome as the increasingly dominant partner. This "Etruscan League" centered on Rome would have presented a formidable regional power in central Italy.

Early Conflict with Greeks: The Greek colonies in southern Italy and Sicily would have viewed the growing Etruscan-Roman power with alarm. Earlier and more intense conflicts between the Hellenic south and Etruscan north might have ensued, potentially drawing in the major Greek powers like Syracuse.

Social and Economic Developments

The social structure of early Rome would have evolved differently without the Republican institutions that historically shaped Roman society.

Delayed Development of the Plebeian Class: The historical struggle between patricians and plebeians that defined much of the early Republic would have taken a different form. Without Republican assemblies, plebeian political consciousness might have developed more slowly. However, economic pressures would still have created tensions between social classes.

Royal Patronage vs. Clientage: The Republican system of patronage, where powerful families maintained networks of clients, would have been modified in a monarchical system. The king would have served as the supreme patron, potentially limiting the independent power networks of noble families.

Land Distribution: One of the recurring issues in Republican Rome was land distribution. Under a monarchy, land might have been distributed more directly at royal discretion as rewards for military service, potentially creating a class of landowners directly loyal to the crown rather than to the aristocratic families.

Religious Continuity: The Etruscan influence on Roman religion would have been more pronounced and enduring. The role of king as religious head of state would have persisted, maintaining the unity of political and religious authority rather than the Republican system where religious functions were distributed among various priesthoods.

Military Organization

The Roman military system, which under the Republic developed into the manipular legion, would have evolved differently under continued monarchy.

Royal Army vs. Citizen Militia: The Republican army was fundamentally a citizen militia where service was a civic duty. A persistent monarchy might have developed a more professional force directly loyal to the king, perhaps incorporating Etruscan military traditions more fully.

Command Structure: Without consuls leading armies, military command would have remained centralized under the king or his appointed generals. This might have provided more continuity in military leadership but would have lacked the flexibility and innovation that came from annually changing commanders in the Republic.

Expansion Patterns: The early Republic expanded through a combination of warfare and alliance-building, gradually extending control over central Italy. A monarchical Rome might have pursued a different pattern of expansion, possibly more focused on securing Etruscan interests northward into the Po Valley and maintaining control of trade routes.

Long-term Impact

Evolution of Roman Political System (5th-4th Centuries BCE)

The persistence of monarchy would have fundamentally altered Rome's political development, creating an entirely different system from the complex Republican constitution that historically evolved.

Constitutional Monarchy

By the 4th century BCE, pressures for political participation from both the nobility and the emerging middle class would likely have transformed the absolute monarchy into something resembling a constitutional monarchy:

• Formalized Council of Nobles: The advisory council would have evolved into a more formally established body with defined powers, perhaps similar to the Spartan Gerousia or the Carthaginian Council of Elders.

• Assembly of Landowners: Economic development would still have created a class of non-noble landowners seeking political representation. A limited assembly might have emerged, though with fewer powers than the historical Centuriate Assembly.

• Royal Bureaucracy: Unlike the annually elected magistrates of the Republic, a professional bureaucracy loyal to the monarchy would have developed, creating a more centralized administrative apparatus.

Alternative to Republican Virtues

The ideological foundation of Rome would have differed dramatically without Republican concepts:

• Royal Virtues vs. Republican Virtues: Instead of the Republican virtues of civic duty and collective governance, monarchical Rome would have emphasized loyalty to the crown, dynastic continuity, and divine sanction of royal authority.

• Different Conception of Liberty: The Roman Republican concept of libertas focused on freedom from domination by any single individual. Monarchical Rome would have developed a different understanding of liberty, perhaps emphasizing the king's role as protector against arbitrary actions by lesser nobles.

Alternative Military and Expansion Path (4th-3rd Centuries BCE)

Rome's historical military success was closely tied to its Republican institutions. A monarchical Rome would have followed a different trajectory of expansion and military development.

Etruscan-Centered Empire

• Northward Expansion: Rather than the historical focus on conquering central and southern Italy, a monarchical Rome might have prioritized consolidating control over Etruria and expanding northward into the fertile Po Valley.

• Maritime Focus: The Etruscans were accomplished sailors. An Etruscan-Roman monarchy might have developed a stronger naval tradition earlier, focusing on controlling Mediterranean trade routes rather than land conquest.

• Delayed Confrontation with Carthage: The Punic Wars that defined Rome's rise to Mediterranean dominance might have been delayed or taken a different form. An Etruscan-Roman monarchy might have initially pursued commercial relationships with Carthage rather than direct competition.

Military Organization

• Professional Standing Army: Rather than the citizen-soldier model of the Republic, a monarchy would likely have developed a professional standing army earlier, perhaps incorporating Etruscan military traditions and mercenary forces.

• Different Tactical Evolution: The flexible manipular legion that made Republican Rome militarily dominant might never have developed. Instead, we might have seen a military system more influenced by Greek hoplite warfare or developing independently along Etruscan lines.

Cultural and Religious Development (3rd-2nd Centuries BCE)

Roman culture would have retained stronger Etruscan influences without the Republicanization process that historically occurred.

Etruscan Cultural Dominance

• Language Development: Latin might have incorporated more Etruscan elements or even been supplanted by Etruscan as the administrative language in some domains, particularly religious contexts.

• Artistic Traditions: Etruscan artistic styles, known for their vivid portraiture and elaborate tomb paintings, would have continued to dominate Roman aesthetic sensibilities rather than giving way to Hellenistic influences as quickly.

• Royal Patronage: Cultural development would have been more centrally directed through royal patronage rather than the competitive patronage of Republican noble families.

Religious Evolution

• Retained Monarchy in Religion: The historical Rex Sacrorum ("King of Sacred Rites") was a Republican office preserving the religious functions of the abolished monarchy. In this timeline, these functions would have remained integrated with political leadership.

• Etruscan Divination: The elaborate Etruscan systems of divination and prophecy would have remained central to state religion rather than becoming gradually marginalized as they were under the Republic.

• Different Interaction with Greek Religion: The systematic equation of Roman and Greek deities (interpretatio romana) might have proceeded differently, with Etruscan religious concepts mediating the Hellenization process.

Absence of the Roman "Republic" Model in World History (1st Century BCE - Present)

Perhaps the most profound long-term impact would be the absence of the Roman Republican model as a template for later political systems.

Alternative Inspirations for Modern Democracy

• Greek Models Predominate: Without the Roman Republic as an example of large-scale representative government, later democratic movements might have drawn more exclusively on Greek democratic models, which were more direct and less representative in nature.

• Different Conceptual Vocabulary: Modern political theory lacks terms and concepts derived from Roman Republican institutions: no "Senate" as we understand it, no "veto," no "dictator" in its original sense of emergency leadership.

Monarchical Legitimacy in Europe

• Unbroken Tradition of Monarchy: European political development might have more thoroughly embraced monarchy as the natural form of government, without the countervailing example of Republican Rome.

• Different Enlightenment Thinking: Enlightenment political philosophers like Montesquieu, who drew heavily on the Roman Republican model, would have developed different theories of separation of powers and representative government.

Impact on the American Constitutional System

• Alternative Constitutional Models: The American Founding Fathers were profoundly influenced by Roman Republican ideas. Without this model, constitutional development in the United States might have followed different patterns:

  • No bicameral legislature modeled partly on the Roman Senate
  • Different conceptions of executive power without the negative example of Roman dictators
  • Alternate vocabulary for federalism without concepts derived from Roman alliances and governance

By 2025: A Different Political World

The cumulative effect of Rome never becoming a Republic would be a modern world with fundamentally different political structures and concepts:

• Altered Democratic Development: Democracy might still have emerged from Greek roots, but its institutional forms would differ significantly without the Roman Republican influence on representative systems.

• Different Balance of Powers: The specific mechanics of checks and balances, term limits, and power distribution would have developed along alternative lines.

• Changed Political Vocabulary: Our entire conceptual vocabulary for discussing politics would differ, lacking the numerous terms derived from Roman Republican institutions.

• Alternative Historical Consciousness: Without the dramatic narrative of the Republic's rise and fall, our understanding of political cycles and the fragility of political systems would rest on different historical examples.

The absence of the Roman Republican model would not necessarily have prevented the eventual development of democratic systems, but these would have emerged from different historical sources, taken different institutional forms, and perhaps emphasized different values. The Roman Republic's unique contribution—a model of representative governance at scale—would be missing from our political inheritance.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Claudia Fontaine, Professor of Ancient Mediterranean Histories at Oxford University, offers this perspective: "The Roman Republic was arguably the most consequential political experiment in ancient history. Without it, we lose not just a system of governance but an entire political vocabulary. Terms like 'senate,' 'veto,' and even 'republic' itself come from this period. More importantly, the Republic provided a crucial template for representative government at scale—something the Greek direct democracies never solved. In an alternate timeline where Rome remained a monarchy, later democratic movements would have had to reinvent representative institutions from scratch rather than adapting Roman models. I suspect we'd still have democracy, but its institutional expressions would be unrecognizable to us."

Professor Marcus Antonelli, Chair of Comparative Political Systems at Princeton University, presents a contrasting view: "We shouldn't overstate Rome's exceptionalism. Carthage developed sophisticated political institutions with checks on power, as did several Hellenistic states. In a world without the Roman Republic, these alternative models might have received more attention from later political theorists. The Renaissance and Enlightenment thinkers who rediscovered republican ideas would have found other examples in history. What's most interesting to consider is how political legitimacy might be conceived differently—the Roman Republic created a powerful ideological alternative to monarchy that resonated through history. Without it, divine right theories and hereditary rule might have faced fewer conceptual challenges until much later in history."

Dr. Eleanor Zhang, Director of the Institute for Ancient Technologies and Social Systems, adds: "Beyond political structures, we should consider how a continued Etruscan influence might have altered technological and cultural developments. The Etruscans were remarkable engineers and had different social customs, including a notable degree of gender equality compared to later Roman society. A persistent Etruscan-Roman monarchy might have preserved some of these elements, potentially creating a Mediterranean culture with different attitudes toward women's roles and technological priorities. The military developments would also differ significantly—the manipular legion that made Rome a superpower emerged from the specific social and political conditions of the Republic. Without that innovation, Mediterranean power dynamics could have remained more balanced among several regional powers rather than becoming Roman-dominated."

Further Reading

• The Rise of Rome: From the Iron Age to the Punic Wars by Kathryn Lomas
• The Beginnings of Rome: Italy and Rome from the Bronze Age to the Punic Wars by T.J. Cornell
• The Etruscan World by Jean MacIntosh Turfa
• Rome's Revolution: Death of the Republic and Birth of the Empire by Richard Alston
• Roman Political Thought by Dean Hammer
• Rome's Ancient Liberties: Political History of the Roman Republic by Harriet I. Flower