What If San Diego Developed a Different Relationship with the Military?

The Actual History

San Diego's relationship with the U.S. military began in earnest in the early 20th century but accelerated dramatically during World War II, transforming the once-sleepy harbor town into one of the nation's most significant military centers. The city's natural deep-water harbor made it an ideal location for naval operations, and its proximity to the Pacific theater made it strategically vital.

This military connection began to solidify in 1906 when the San Diego Chamber of Commerce donated land to establish a naval coaling station. In 1916, Congress approved funds for a naval training center, and in 1917, the Marine Corps established a base in the city. Throughout the 1920s and 1930s, the military presence grew steadily but remained relatively modest compared to what would follow.

World War II catalyzed an unprecedented military expansion in San Diego. Between 1940 and 1945, the city's population surged by more than 147%, from about 200,000 to over 500,000 residents. The Navy's presence expanded dramatically with the Naval Training Center processing hundreds of thousands of recruits. The Marine Corps Recruit Depot San Diego likewise trained thousands of Marines for Pacific combat operations. Aircraft manufacturing, particularly with Consolidated Aircraft (later Convair), became a major industry producing B-24 Liberator bombers and PBY Catalina flying boats.

After World War II, unlike many temporary wartime military centers that contracted, San Diego's military connection only deepened. During the Cold War, the city became crucial to America's Pacific strategy. Naval Base San Diego grew to become the principal home port of the Pacific Fleet, while Naval Air Station North Island, Marine Corps Air Station Miramar, and other installations expanded their footprints and importance.

The Korean and Vietnam Wars reinforced San Diego's military significance. Simultaneously, defense contractors found the city an ideal location, with General Dynamics, Rohr Aircraft, Ryan Aeronautical, and numerous others establishing major operations, creating a defense-industrial complex that provided thousands of high-paying jobs.

By the 1980s, about one-third of San Diego County's economy was directly or indirectly tied to military spending. The end of the Cold War and subsequent base closures in the 1990s posed challenges, but San Diego weathered them better than many military communities, partly because it housed such a diverse range of military functions that many remained essential even in peacetime.

Today, San Diego hosts the largest naval complex in the world, with more than 20,000 active duty personnel stationed on ships homeported there. The city is home to approximately 60% of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, including multiple aircraft carriers, destroyers, and amphibious vessels. Combined with the many other military installations, about one in five jobs in San Diego County remains connected to defense spending, with an economic impact exceeding $50 billion annually.

This military presence has profoundly shaped San Diego's demographics, politics, urban development, and identity. The influx of military personnel from across America has created a more politically and demographically diverse population than many comparable California cities. Military-connected residents, including active duty, veterans, and dependents, comprise nearly one-quarter of the county's population. The concentration of naval and marine facilities along the waterfront has fundamentally determined how the city developed physically, while also contributing to the region's persistent housing shortages and high cost of living.

The military's needs have also driven technological innovation and educational development in the region, with the University of California San Diego and numerous research institutes established partly to support defense-related research. This military-scientific complex helped seed San Diego's thriving biotech and telecommunications sectors, creating a unique innovation ecosystem.

The Point of Divergence

What if San Diego had developed without becoming a major military hub? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where San Diego's development took a fundamentally different path in the early 20th century, leading to a city with a dramatically different economic base, urban form, and global significance.

The point of divergence occurs in 1906-1908, when several critical decisions reshaped San Diego's future. In our timeline, San Diego's civic leaders, particularly businessman and developer John D. Spreckels, actively courted military investment, donating land for a naval coaling station and lobbying aggressively for naval facilities. In this alternate timeline, however, San Diego's leaders pursue a different development strategy.

Several plausible mechanisms could have created this divergence:

First, San Diego's commercial elite might have prioritized civilian port development and tourism over military investment. Perhaps John D. Spreckels, who controlled much of San Diego's waterfront, envisioned the harbor primarily as a commercial shipping center rather than a naval base. Without the donation of key parcels for military use and lacking the aggressive lobbying from San Diego's Chamber of Commerce, the Navy might have expanded facilities in San Francisco Bay or Los Angeles Harbor instead.

Alternatively, the 1906 San Francisco earthquake could have played out differently. In our timeline, this disaster temporarily hampered San Francisco's ability to expand naval facilities, creating an opening for San Diego. In the alternate timeline, San Francisco might have recovered more quickly or the Navy might have committed more fully to expanding Bay Area facilities despite the earthquake damage.

A third possibility involves railroad politics. In our timeline, San Diego lost out to Los Angeles in the competition for transcontinental railroad connections, limiting its early commercial growth. Perhaps in this alternate timeline, the Santa Fe Railway might have made San Diego its primary southern California terminus, creating sufficient commercial impetus that military development seemed less crucial to local boosters.

Finally, political changes in Washington could have played a role. Different congressional committee assignments or a Navy Department with different regional priorities might have directed early 20th century naval expansion elsewhere, even without changes in San Diego's local politics.

Whatever the specific mechanism, the result is clear: the U.S. military establishes only a minimal presence in San Diego prior to World War I, and the city develops primarily as a commercial port, tourist destination, and agricultural center for Imperial Valley products. When World War I arrives, San Diego receives some temporary military facilities, but these are largely decommissioned after the war, unlike our timeline where they became the foundation for permanent expansion.

Immediate Aftermath

Interwar Commercial Development (1918-1940)

Without the anchor of major military installations, San Diego's development in the 1920s and 1930s follows a dramatically different trajectory. The city still experiences growth during the 1920s boom years, but this growth is driven primarily by tourism, agriculture, and limited manufacturing.

The waterfront, rather than being dominated by naval installations, develops more along the lines of San Francisco's Embarcadero, with commercial piers, fish markets, and passenger terminals. The city's famous 1915 Panama-California Exposition in Balboa Park, which in our timeline helped convince military planners of San Diego's suitability for expanded facilities, instead primarily attracts tourists and commercial interests.

John Spreckels and other developers focus on building San Diego as "America's Mediterranean," emphasizing its climate and scenic beauty to attract wealthy retirees and vacationers from the East and Midwest. The Spanish Colonial Revival architecture that characterized our timeline's San Diego still emerges, but with a greater focus on resort hotels and vacation communities.

Without the stabilizing economic force of military payrolls, San Diego suffers more severely during the Great Depression than in our timeline. The tourism industry collapses as Americans cancel vacation plans, and shipping volumes decline dramatically. By 1935, the city faces severe budget shortfalls, and unemployment rates exceed national averages. This economic vulnerability makes the city's leadership even more determined to diversify its economy beyond tourism and small-scale commerce.

Commercial air travel becomes a focus, with the city developing Lindbergh Field more extensively as a civilian airport rather than sharing the space with military operations. San Diego makes ambitious attempts to position itself as a gateway for trade with Latin America and the Pacific, though these efforts are hampered by competition from Los Angeles and San Francisco.

World War II Transformations (1940-1945)

The outbreak of World War II still brings dramatic changes to San Diego, but these differ substantially from our timeline. Without established major military bases, San Diego does not immediately become a principal training and embarkation center. Instead, the military establishes temporary facilities for the duration of the war, requisitioning hotels, parks, and other civilian spaces.

The aircraft manufacturing industry still develops in San Diego, though somewhat later and on a smaller scale than in our timeline. Consolidated Aircraft (later Convair) still establishes operations in the city, attracted by good flying weather and available land, but without the pre-existing military presence, its expansion is less dramatic. Other defense manufacturers like Ryan Aeronautical also establish operations, but the defense industrial base remains significantly smaller than in our timeline.

Population growth during the war years is substantial but more modest than the 147% increase San Diego experienced in our timeline. Perhaps 60,000-80,000 new residents arrive instead of 300,000, primarily workers for the aircraft plants and temporary military personnel. This more modest wartime boom means less strain on housing and infrastructure but also less economic stimulus.

The Navy still establishes an expanded presence during the war, but primarily through temporary facilities. Naval operations focus on San Francisco, Seattle, and Pearl Harbor as the primary Pacific Fleet bases, with San Diego serving as a secondary facility. The Marines establish training facilities but on a smaller scale than the massive Marine Corps Recruit Depot of our timeline.

Post-War Adjustments (1945-1955)

The end of World War II presents both challenges and opportunities for this alternate San Diego. The city faces the decommissioning of temporary war facilities and the scaling back of defense manufacturing, but it does not experience the entrenchment of a permanent, massive military presence.

City leaders, concerned about post-war economic contraction, actively court new industries. With substantial available waterfront land that in our timeline would have been occupied by naval facilities, San Diego develops more extensive commercial port operations. The city makes substantial investments in shipping terminals aimed at capturing a larger share of Pacific trade, directly competing with Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Tourism rebounds strongly in the post-war economic boom. Without the industrial character imparted by large military bases, San Diego more fully embraces its identity as a resort destination. Mission Bay, which in our timeline was developed with a mix of recreational and military functions, becomes exclusively focused on tourism and recreation, developed earlier and more extensively than in our timeline.

Higher education develops differently as well. San Diego State College (later University) expands to meet civilian needs, but the impetus for establishing the University of California San Diego comes later and with a different focus. Without the military-industrial complex creating demand for defense-related research, UCSD (when eventually established) develops with greater emphasis on marine biology, oceanography, and civilian medical research rather than physics and engineering.

The demographic composition of the city also differs significantly. Without the constant inflow of military personnel from across America, San Diego remains more demographically similar to other Southern California cities, with stronger Mexican-American influence and somewhat less diversity from other regions of the United States.

Long-term Impact

Economic Development Trajectories (1955-1975)

By the late 1950s, this alternate San Diego has established a distinctly different economic base. Without the massive defense spending that underpinned our timeline's San Diego economy, the city develops a more diverse but potentially more vulnerable economic foundation.

Commercial Shipping Expansion

With greater waterfront availability, San Diego invests heavily in expanding commercial port facilities during the containerization revolution of the 1960s. The city captures a larger share of West Coast shipping than in our timeline, though still trailing behind the massive ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach and San Francisco/Oakland. This commercial shipping emphasis creates a substantial blue-collar workforce and stronger labor unions than in our timeline's more military-oriented San Diego.

Tourism Dominance

Tourism remains the city's most visible industry. The absence of military facilities along the waterfront allows for more extensive development of beaches, marinas, and waterfront attractions. Hotel Circle, which in our timeline developed partly to accommodate military visitors, becomes more exclusively focused on leisure travelers. Mission Bay's development as an aquatic playground proceeds more rapidly and extensively.

San Diego still establishes the world-famous zoo and develops Sea World, but these attractions become even more central to the city's identity and economic strategy without the balancing presence of military activities. The city's economic fortunes become more cyclical, booming during strong economic times but suffering sharper downturns when recession hits travel budgets.

Different Industrial Base

The aerospace industry still develops in San Diego but focuses more on civilian applications than military contracts. Companies like Convair, lacking the steady stream of military orders they enjoyed in our timeline, either diversify more aggressively into civilian aircraft or relocate some operations to regions with stronger defense connections.

Without the massive military presence driving housing demand and retail consumption, real estate development follows different patterns. The city likely expands more slowly inland, with more concentrated development along coastal areas where tourism creates demand.

Political and Cultural Divergence (1975-2000)

By the final quarter of the 20th century, this alternate San Diego has developed a distinctly different political and cultural character from the city we know.

Political Evolution

Without the large population of military personnel and veterans, San Diego's politics trend more like other coastal California cities. The strong conservative and libertarian currents that military families brought to San Diego politics in our timeline are diminished. The city likely becomes more consistently Democratic in local politics by the 1980s, rather than maintaining the Republican lean it had through much of the late 20th century in our timeline.

Environmental politics emerge more strongly without the countervailing force of military interests. Coastal preservation becomes a higher priority earlier, potentially limiting some waterfront development but preserving more natural spaces along the coast.

Urban Development Patterns

Without the vast tracts of land occupied by military bases, San Diego's urban form develops quite differently. Areas like Point Loma, Coronado, and Miramar—heavily shaped by military presence in our timeline—instead develop as primarily civilian neighborhoods, likely with higher-density housing and more commercial activities.

The massive Mission Bay project still reshapes that area, but without the Military's influence, it might include more private development mixed with the public recreational spaces. Coronado potentially develops as a more accessible tourism destination without the Naval Air Station occupying much of the island.

Transportation infrastructure develops with different priorities. Without military commuter patterns influencing highway planning, different freeway patterns might emerge. Public transportation might receive greater emphasis earlier, particularly connecting tourist destinations with the airport and downtown.

Regional Relationships

San Diego's relationship with Tijuana potentially develops more extensively without security concerns limiting cross-border integration. Economic partnerships between the two cities might advance more rapidly, creating a more integrated border economy focused on manufacturing, tourism, and cultural exchange.

The relationship with Los Angeles also evolves differently. Without the distinctive military character that differentiated San Diego in our timeline, the city might work harder to establish a separate identity from its larger northern neighbor. Alternatively, stronger commercial competition between the ports could create more regional rivalry.

The Technology Transition (2000-2025)

The turn of the millennium brings significant changes to this alternate San Diego's economic foundation. Without the defense-industrial complex that seeded many technology companies in our timeline, San Diego's emergence as a technology hub follows a different pattern.

Different Innovation Ecosystem

In our timeline, military research drove early San Diego technology development, with defense contractors gradually spinning off civilian applications and military-funded research at institutions like UCSD creating technological spillovers. In this alternate timeline, technology development emerges more organically from civilian research centers.

The biotech industry still develops but with different specializations. Without defense medicine driving research in trauma treatment and battlefield applications, San Diego's biotech firms might focus more on consumer pharmaceuticals, agricultural applications, or marine biotechnology leveraging the city's coastal location.

Telecommunications, which developed in our timeline partly from military communications research, emerges more slowly or with different specializations. Companies like Qualcomm might not exist in their current form, or might have established themselves in other technology centers rather than San Diego.

Education and Research Focus

UCSD still becomes a major research university but with different emphases. The Scripps Institution of Oceanography likely remains prominent or becomes even more central to the university's identity. Medical research focuses more on civilian applications and public health than the trauma medicine and defense applications that received significant funding in our timeline.

Research partnerships develop more extensively with private industry and international partners rather than defense agencies. The university potentially develops stronger connections with Asian and Latin American institutions, positioning itself as a Pacific Rim research center.

Economic Resilience and Vulnerability

Without the stabilizing influence of military spending, which in our timeline provides steady employment through economic cycles, this alternate San Diego experiences greater economic volatility. Recessions hit harder, particularly those affecting tourism and international trade, such as the post-9/11 travel downturn and the 2008 financial crisis.

However, the more diverse economic base also creates different opportunities. Without military land use restrictions limiting development, housing might be somewhat more affordable, allowing for greater population growth. The stronger commercial port sector potentially positions the city better for Pacific Rim trade as Asian economies expand.

Present Day Comparison (2025)

By 2025, this alternate San Diego presents a substantially different metropolitan area:

Physical Differences

The most immediately visible difference would be the waterfront and bay areas. Naval Base San Diego, which dominates miles of waterfront in our timeline, does not exist. Instead, these areas feature a mix of commercial shipping facilities, public recreational spaces, and private development. The massive aircraft carriers and warships that define the harbor view are absent, replaced by container ships, cruise vessels, and recreational boats.

Coronado lacks the Naval Air Station that occupies much of the island in our timeline, instead developing as a more extensive tourist and residential community. Point Loma, Mission Bay, and other areas heavily shaped by military presence have entirely different development patterns.

Population and Demographics

Without the constant influx of military personnel from across America, this San Diego likely has:

Somewhat lower overall population, perhaps 2.8-3.0 million in the county instead of 3.3 million
Higher percentage of Hispanic residents and stronger Mexican cultural influence
Fewer residents with connections to other parts of the United States
Lower percentage of residents with college degrees, as military officers and technical personnel represent a significant educated population in our timeline
Older average age, lacking the young military personnel that maintain a younger demographic profile

Economic Profile

The economic structure of this alternate San Diego shows significant differences:

Tourism represents a larger percentage of the economy, perhaps 25-30% versus about 15% in our timeline
The commercial port handles significantly more cargo, perhaps handling volume comparable to Portland or Seattle rather than the relatively limited commercial shipping of our timeline
Manufacturing focuses more on consumer goods, food processing, and civilian applications
The technology sector is smaller and focuses more on consumer applications, medical technology, and environmental technology rather than defense applications
Real estate values may be somewhat lower without the consistent housing demand from military personnel, though still high by national standards due to climate and coastal amenities

International Significance

This San Diego holds a different place in the global landscape:

Less strategic military significance to the United States, potentially reducing its national political influence
Stronger commercial and cultural connections with Mexico and Latin America
More developed identity as a Pacific Rim commercial center rather than a military stronghold
Possibly greater vulnerability to economic disruptions without the stabilizing force of federal military spending
Potentially greater emphasis on environmental leadership and sustainable development without military land use priorities

The city still boasts magnificent natural beauty, an enviable climate, and substantial economic assets, but its character, global significance, and very identity have developed along fundamentally different lines from the San Diego we know today.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Richard Alvarez, Professor of Urban Development and Economic History at UC San Diego, offers this perspective: "The military-civic relationship fundamentally shaped San Diego in ways we take for granted. Without the massive naval presence, San Diego would likely have developed more like Santa Barbara or Santa Monica—beautiful coastal communities with tourism and some commercial activity, but lacking the economic heft and national significance the military brought. The innovation ecosystem would be dramatically different; many of our technology companies grew directly from defense contracts or military research. While the city would still be desirable for its climate and location, it would probably be smaller, less economically diverse, and significantly less prominent in national affairs. The waterfront would be unrecognizable to residents of our timeline, with commercial and recreational uses replacing the massive naval facilities."

Dr. Maria Sanchez, Director of the Institute for Border Studies at San Diego State University, provides a contrasting view: "A San Diego without the overwhelming military presence would likely have developed much stronger cross-border integration with Tijuana. The security concerns that have often dominated border policy would be balanced by stronger commercial and cultural considerations. We might see something closer to the European model of border regions, with more fluid movement, integrated economies, and binational institutions. The San Diego-Tijuana metropolitan area might be recognized globally as a leading example of cross-border cooperation rather than being defined by security infrastructure. The economic focus would likely shift toward leveraging San Diego's position as a gateway between Latin America and the United States rather than as a military stronghold facing the Pacific."

Admiral James Harrington (Ret.), former commander of Naval Forces Pacific and military historian, explains: "From the Navy's perspective, the loss of San Diego as a major base would have required significant operational adjustments. San Francisco, Seattle, and Pearl Harbor would have needed substantial expansion to accommodate the fleet assets that San Diego hosts in our timeline. The Navy's ability to project power in the Pacific would be somewhat diminished without San Diego's strategic location and extensive facilities. However, the Navy would have adapted, potentially developing alternative bases in Southern California or expanding Long Beach facilities. The real loss would be the symbiotic relationship between the Navy, Marines, and San Diego community that has benefited both sides for generations. That cultural connection, with San Diego's strong naval heritage and the community's deep understanding of maritime service, would be irreplaceable."