What If Saskatchewan Diversified Beyond Agriculture Earlier?

The Actual History

Saskatchewan's economic development has been fundamentally shaped by agriculture since its establishment as a province in 1905. For much of its history, Saskatchewan was known as Canada's "breadbasket," with its vast prairie landscape devoted primarily to grain production, particularly wheat. This agricultural focus created a boom-and-bust economy highly vulnerable to weather conditions, international commodity prices, and global market fluctuations.

The early 20th century saw substantial population growth as homesteaders established farms across the province, with the population reaching nearly one million by 1930. However, this period of expansion came to a devastating halt with the dual crises of the Great Depression and the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Drought conditions decimated crops, soil erosion destroyed farmland, and plummeting wheat prices created economic devastation. Saskatchewan was hit harder than any other Canadian province, with nearly two-thirds of the rural population requiring government relief by 1934.

The post-war period brought temporary agricultural prosperity, but by the 1950s, it became increasingly clear that Saskatchewan's heavy dependence on agriculture represented an economic liability. While the province's soil contained substantial deposits of potash, uranium, oil, and natural gas, these resources remained largely undeveloped until the 1970s. The neighboring province of Alberta had already begun diversifying with oil development following major discoveries at Leduc in 1947, creating a stark contrast in economic trajectories.

Saskatchewan took its first significant steps toward economic diversification in the early 1940s when the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF) government under Tommy Douglas established several Crown corporations. However, these early initiatives primarily focused on expanding public utilities rather than developing natural resources or manufacturing.

The true turning point came in the late 1960s and early 1970s when successive governments began actively developing Saskatchewan's resource sector. Premier Ross Thatcher's Liberal government (1964-1971) and Allan Blakeney's subsequent NDP government (1971-1982) introduced policies that spurred resource development, particularly in potash, uranium, and oil. The Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan was established in 1975, becoming a symbol of the province's new direction.

By the 1980s, Saskatchewan had significantly reduced its economic dependence on agriculture. Today, while agriculture remains important, the province has a much more diversified economy with mining (particularly potash and uranium), oil and gas extraction, manufacturing, and service industries playing substantial roles. The province's GDP has grown considerably, and its economy has proven more resistant to cyclical downturns than in previous decades.

Nevertheless, this economic transition came decades after similar diversification in Alberta and other resource-rich regions of Canada. Saskatchewan's population stagnated for decades, actually decreasing from about 930,000 in 1931 to 925,000 in 1971, before resuming growth. This demographic challenge continues to shape the province's development, with Saskatchewan's population only recently surpassing one million residents again in the early 21st century.

The Point of Divergence

What if Saskatchewan had diversified beyond agriculture earlier? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where Saskatchewan began significant economic diversification in the late 1940s and early 1950s – approximately two decades earlier than in our timeline.

The point of divergence centers on the post-war period when Saskatchewan's CCF government under Tommy Douglas (1944-1961) made different strategic economic decisions. Rather than focusing primarily on establishing public utilities and healthcare innovations, the Douglas government in this timeline pursued a more aggressive resource development strategy alongside its social programs.

Several plausible mechanisms could have triggered this alternative approach:

First, the discovery of oil at Leduc, Alberta in 1947 could have prompted a more immediate competitive response from Saskatchewan. In our timeline, Saskatchewan watched as Alberta rapidly developed its oil industry, but in this alternate scenario, the Douglas government recognized the inevitability of similar discoveries in Saskatchewan and proactively established a provincial resource development corporation to conduct exploration and facilitate extraction of the province's own substantial oil reserves.

Second, the uranium discoveries at Uranium City in northern Saskatchewan might have been developed more aggressively. In actual history, while uranium mining began in the 1950s, it remained relatively small-scale until the 1970s. In this alternate timeline, the strategic importance of uranium during the early Cold War combined with more provincial investment could have accelerated this development.

Third, Saskatchewan's vast potash reserves – among the world's largest – could have been developed a decade earlier. Rather than waiting until 1975 to establish the Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, early government investments in the 1950s could have jumpstarted this industry.

The most likely catalyst would be a combination of these factors, alongside a shift in political philosophy that reconciled the CCF's socialist principles with resource development through a model of Crown corporations and public-private partnerships. Tommy Douglas might have been persuaded that developing these resources under provincial control would generate the revenue needed to fund his ambitious social programs while creating economic stability beyond agriculture.

This alternate path would have required overcoming significant challenges, including securing the substantial capital needed for resource development, addressing technological limitations of the era, and navigating federal-provincial relations. Nevertheless, the fundamental geological potential was present, awaiting only the political will and economic investment to transform Saskatchewan's future.

Immediate Aftermath

Resource Development Acceleration (1947-1955)

In this alternate timeline, Saskatchewan's economic diversification began in earnest following the Leduc oil discovery in neighboring Alberta. Premier Tommy Douglas, recognizing both the opportunity and the competitive threat, established the Saskatchewan Resources Development Corporation (SRDC) in late 1947 – a Crown corporation tasked with exploring and developing the province's natural resources.

The initial focus on oil exploration yielded significant results by 1949, with major discoveries in the Lloydminster and Swift Current regions. Unlike our timeline, where Saskatchewan's oil industry developed gradually and often under the control of outside corporations, the SRDC model ensured provincial oversight while partnering with private expertise for development.

By 1952, Saskatchewan's oil production reached 15 million barrels annually – modest compared to Alberta's output but significant enough to begin changing the provincial economy. The royalty structure implemented by Douglas ensured that resource revenues flowed into provincial coffers, helping fund his social programs while reducing dependence on federal transfers and agricultural taxes.

Uranium development followed a similar pattern. In 1951, the province established the Saskatchewan Uranium Mining Corporation (SUMC) to work alongside Eldorado Mining (the federal Crown corporation) in northern Saskatchewan. The strategic importance of uranium during the early Cold War years meant these efforts received federal support despite political differences between Douglas's CCF government and the federal Liberal administration.

Industrial Development and Infrastructure (1950-1960)

The resource boom triggered secondary effects throughout Saskatchewan's economy. Regina and Saskatoon expanded as service centers for the resource industry, while smaller communities like Estevan, Swift Current, and Kindersley grew around oil development. In northern Saskatchewan, uranium mining created new communities and expanded existing ones.

Infrastructure development accelerated to support these industries. Between 1950 and 1958, Saskatchewan's provincial highway network expanded by over 30%, with particular emphasis on connecting resource-rich regions to transportation hubs. The provincial power utility, Saskatchewan Power Corporation, doubled its generating capacity between 1950 and 1957 to meet industrial demand.

A critical development came in 1953 when the Douglas government used early resource revenues to establish the Saskatchewan Industrial Development Fund (SIDF), which provided low-interest loans to manufacturing enterprises that used provincial resources as inputs. This led to the establishment of several petroleum refineries, uranium processing facilities, and agricultural equipment manufacturing plants within the province rather than exporting raw materials for processing elsewhere.

Political and Social Consequences (1950-1960)

The expansion of resource industries created new political dynamics in Saskatchewan. The CCF government under Douglas retained strong support among farmers and urban workers, but now added a growing class of resource industry workers to its base. This new constituency sometimes created tensions within the party, particularly around environmental regulations and the pace of development.

The most significant political consequence emerged in the 1956 provincial election. While in our timeline Douglas won a narrow victory, in this alternate scenario, the economic benefits of diversification translated into a stronger mandate, with the CCF increasing its legislative majority. This strengthened position allowed Douglas to accelerate his diversification agenda during his final term as premier.

Population trends showed immediate divergence from our timeline. Rather than continuing to lose population through the 1950s, Saskatchewan began experiencing modest growth, with particular increases in urban areas. By 1960, the province's population reached approximately 960,000 – about 40,000 higher than in our timeline at that point. More significantly, the demographic mix began shifting, with a higher percentage of young workers remaining in the province rather than migrating to Alberta or Ontario.

When Tommy Douglas departed provincial politics in 1961 to lead the federal New Democratic Party, he left behind a significantly different Saskatchewan than in our timeline – one with a more diversified economy, growing urban centers, and the financial capacity to sustain its innovations in social programs.

Long-term Impact

Saskatchewan's Economic Transformation (1960-1980)

By the early 1960s, Saskatchewan's early diversification created a foundation for more significant economic transformation. In this alternate timeline, the province's economy developed along substantially different lines than in our actual history:

Resource Sector Expansion: The early start in resource development gave Saskatchewan a competitive advantage as global demand increased. When potash development began in earnest during the 1960s, the province already had infrastructure, expertise, and capital from oil and uranium revenues to support expansion. By 1970, Saskatchewan produced nearly 40% of the world's potash, compared to approximately 25% in our timeline at that point.
Manufacturing Growth: The most striking divergence emerged in manufacturing. In our timeline, Saskatchewan's manufacturing sector remained relatively underdeveloped until recent decades. In this alternate scenario, the early establishment of resource-processing industries created clusters of expertise that attracted related industries. Regina developed as a center for agricultural equipment manufacturing, while Saskatoon emerged as a hub for mining technology and chemical processing related to potash and uranium.
Technology Development: By the late 1960s, Saskatchewan Technical Institute (established in 1960, earlier than in our timeline) had evolved into a full technological university specializing in resource engineering, agricultural biotechnology, and nuclear sciences. This institution, headquartered in Saskatoon with satellite campuses in Regina and Prince Albert, became internationally recognized for innovation in resource extraction technologies.
Financial Sector: A sophisticated financial services sector emerged in Regina, specializing in resource financing and agricultural commodities trading. The Saskatchewan Provincial Bank (a Crown corporation established in 1958 that doesn't exist in our timeline) played a central role in providing capital for provincial development while keeping financial decisions centered in Saskatchewan rather than Toronto or Montreal.

Demographic and Urban Development (1960-2000)

Saskatchewan's population trajectory diverged dramatically from our timeline. Rather than stagnating at approximately 925,000 through the 1960s and 1970s, the province experienced steady growth:

By 1970: approximately 1.1 million residents (versus 926,000 in our timeline)
By 1980: approximately 1.3 million residents (versus 968,000 in our timeline)
By 2000: approximately 1.7 million residents (versus 978,000 in our timeline)

This population growth transformed Saskatchewan's urban landscape. Regina and Saskatoon both exceeded 350,000 residents by 2000 (compared to approximately 200,000 each in our timeline), with distinctive economic specializations. Secondary cities like Prince Albert, Moose Jaw, Swift Current, and Estevan grew substantially, while new resource communities emerged in the north.

The demographic composition also shifted significantly. The province retained a higher percentage of young adults than in our timeline, reducing the median age. Indigenous participation in the resource economy increased, particularly in uranium and forestry sectors in northern Saskatchewan, creating new economic opportunities for First Nations and Métis communities.

Federal-Provincial Relations (1960-2025)

Saskatchewan's altered economic position fundamentally changed its relationship with the federal government and other provinces:

Fiscal Capacity: Earlier resource development provided Saskatchewan with greater fiscal independence. By the mid-1960s, the province shifted from being a significant recipient of federal equalization payments to a modest contributor, changing its leverage in federal negotiations.
Western Power Bloc: In partnership with Alberta and British Columbia, Saskatchewan formed part of a more influential western bloc in federal politics two decades earlier than in our timeline. This alliance successfully negotiated more provincial control over resources in the 1970s constitution discussions.
Eastern Tensions: Saskatchewan's accelerated development created earlier tensions with Ontario and Quebec, particularly regarding energy policy, resource pricing, and federal industrial strategies. These tensions resembled those experienced during the 1970s and 1980s in our timeline, but emerged in the 1960s instead.
Northern Development: The early resource boom in northern Saskatchewan created greater provincial focus on integrating the provincial north. Transportation links, education facilities, and economic development programs for northern communities were established decades earlier than in our timeline.

Environmental and Cultural Impact (1970-2025)

Early resource development without the environmental regulations that emerged later created significant challenges:

Environmental Legacy: The aggressive resource development of the 1950s and 1960s left environmental issues that required expensive remediation in later decades, particularly in uranium mining regions.
Indigenous Relations: While the resource economy created opportunities for Indigenous communities, the earlier development timeline meant many projects proceeded without the consultation processes and impact benefit agreements that became standard in later decades.
Cultural Identity: Saskatchewan's self-image evolved differently. Rather than being defined primarily by agricultural heritage, the province developed a more complex identity balancing its farming traditions with its role as a resource and technology center.

By 2025 in this alternate timeline, Saskatchewan stands as Canada's third-largest provincial economy (rather than sixth in our timeline), with a population approaching 2 million. Its economic structure more closely resembles Alberta's diversified resource economy than the agriculture-dominant model of our historical Saskatchewan. The province's political influence within Canada is substantially greater, and its social institutions are supported by a more robust and stable economic foundation.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Maria Reynolds, Professor of Canadian Economic History at the University of Toronto, offers this perspective: "Saskatchewan's actual economic history represents a classic case of delayed development despite abundant resources. In the alternate scenario where diversification began in the late 1940s, we would expect to see not just quantitative differences in GDP and population, but qualitative differences in economic structure. The acceleration of development by twenty years would have positioned Saskatchewan to participate in global markets during the post-war boom period rather than entering those markets during the more volatile 1970s. This timing advantage alone would have profoundly altered the province's development trajectory, potentially creating a more balanced economic partnership between Saskatchewan and Alberta rather than the asymmetrical relationship that historically emerged."

James Hawkins, Senior Fellow at the Prairie Economic Institute, provides a contrasting view: "While earlier diversification would have certainly strengthened Saskatchewan's economy, we should be cautious about assuming uniformly positive outcomes. The CCF government under Douglas made deliberate choices to prioritize social development alongside modest economic growth. An earlier resource boom might have undermined aspects of Saskatchewan's pioneering social programs if political priorities shifted. Additionally, the environmental and Indigenous rights movements that influenced resource development in the 1970s would have been absent in the 1950s, potentially creating larger environmental liabilities and more problematic relationships with First Nations communities. Saskatchewan might have gained economic strength but lost aspects of its progressive identity that emerged from its agricultural cooperative tradition."

Dr. Sarah Two Rivers, Chair of Indigenous Economic Development at First Nations University of Canada, addresses the implications for Indigenous communities: "An accelerated resource development timeline creates a profound counterfactual for First Nations and Métis communities in Saskatchewan. In our actual history, many major resource projects came after the constitutional recognition of Aboriginal rights in 1982 and court decisions mandating consultation. In this alternate timeline, development would have preceded these legal frameworks. The outcome would likely depend on whether provincial leaders like Douglas extended their progressive social policies to include meaningful Indigenous partnerships in resource development. The potential existed for either earlier economic inclusion of Indigenous communities or a more extensive legacy of exclusion that would have required later remediation. Either way, Saskatchewan's resource wealth would have intersected with Indigenous territories in ways that fundamentally shaped provincial history."