What If Scotland Became Independent?

The Actual History

On September 18, 2014, Scotland held a referendum on independence from the United Kingdom. The question posed to voters was straightforward: "Should Scotland be an independent country?" After a lengthy campaign that saw record levels of political engagement, 55.3% of voters chose "No," while 44.7% voted "Yes." With a turnout of 84.6%—the highest for any election or referendum in the UK since the introduction of universal suffrage—the result represented a clear democratic decision to remain within the United Kingdom, albeit with a significant minority supporting independence.

The path to this referendum began decades earlier. Scottish nationalism as a political force had existed since the early 20th century but gained significant momentum in the 1970s with the discovery of North Sea oil and the electoral rise of the Scottish National Party (SNP). The Conservative governments of Margaret Thatcher and John Major (1979-1997) were deeply unpopular in Scotland, where their market-oriented policies were seen as damaging to Scottish industry and communities. This period saw growing support for devolution—the transfer of powers from Westminster to a Scottish parliament.

When Tony Blair's Labour government came to power in 1997, it held a referendum on Scottish devolution, which passed with 74.3% support. The Scottish Parliament was established in 1999, with control over areas including health, education, justice, and housing, while Westminster retained authority over defense, foreign affairs, immigration, and most taxation and economic policy.

The SNP, which had initially opposed devolution as insufficient, gradually gained electoral strength within the new parliament. In 2007, it formed a minority government under Alex Salmond, and in 2011, it won an unexpected majority—a significant achievement in a proportional representation system designed to prevent single-party dominance. This majority gave the SNP a mandate to pursue an independence referendum.

After negotiations between the Scottish and UK governments, the Edinburgh Agreement of 2012 provided the legal framework for the referendum. The UK government, led by Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, granted the Scottish Parliament temporary powers to hold a legally binding vote. Both governments committed to respect the outcome.

The referendum campaign was intense and far-reaching. The pro-independence "Yes Scotland" campaign, led by the SNP and supported by the Scottish Greens and some smaller parties, argued that independence would allow Scotland to build a more socially just society, better utilize its natural resources, and represent its distinct interests internationally. The "Better Together" campaign, supported by the Conservative, Labour, and Liberal Democrat parties, emphasized the economic risks of independence, the benefits of the UK's shared resources and international influence, and the deep historical and cultural ties between Scotland and the rest of the UK.

Key issues in the debate included:

Currency: The Yes campaign initially proposed that an independent Scotland would continue to use the pound sterling in a formal currency union with the rest of the UK. However, this was rejected by all major UK parties, creating uncertainty about Scotland's future currency arrangements.
EU Membership: While the Yes campaign argued that Scotland would remain in the European Union after independence, EU officials indicated that Scotland would need to apply as a new member state, potentially facing a complex accession process.
Oil and Gas: North Sea resources were central to the economic case for independence, with the Yes campaign arguing that Scotland would benefit more directly from these revenues. However, questions about reserves, future prices, and decommissioning costs created uncertainty.
Public Services and Social Policy: The Yes campaign promised that independence would allow Scotland to protect its more social democratic approach to public services from Westminster austerity policies. The No campaign countered that the UK's larger tax base provided greater financial security for these services.

In the final weeks of the campaign, as polls showed a narrowing gap, the leaders of the three main UK parties pledged to devolve substantial additional powers to Scotland in the event of a No vote—a promise that became known as "The Vow." This commitment to further devolution was seen by some as influential in the final result.

Following the referendum, the Smith Commission was established to deliver on these promises of enhanced devolution. The resulting Scotland Act 2016 devolved significant new powers to the Scottish Parliament, including greater control over taxation and welfare.

However, the 2016 Brexit referendum, in which the UK voted to leave the European Union while Scotland voted strongly to remain, reignited the independence debate. The SNP, now led by Nicola Sturgeon, argued that this material change in circumstances justified a second independence referendum. The UK government, under successive Conservative prime ministers, has consistently rejected this position, arguing that the 2014 vote was a "once in a generation" event.

As of 2023, Scotland remains part of the United Kingdom, with its own parliament exercising extensive devolved powers. The constitutional question remains prominent in Scottish politics, with the SNP continuing to advocate for independence while the Conservative, Labour, and Liberal Democrat parties support Scotland's place in the UK, albeit with different visions for its future governance.

The 2014 referendum, while resulting in a victory for the union, transformed Scottish politics, with constitutional questions becoming a defining feature of political alignment. It also prompted renewed consideration of devolution and governance across the UK, contributing to ongoing debates about the country's constitutional future.

The Point of Divergence

In this alternate timeline, the Scottish independence referendum of September 18, 2014, produces a different result. Instead of the 55.3% to 44.7% victory for "No" that occurred in our timeline, the vote swings in favor of independence, with 51.8% choosing "Yes" and 48.2% voting "No."

Several factors contribute to this alternative outcome:

Economic Messaging: In this timeline, the Yes campaign more effectively counters concerns about currency arrangements by presenting a more detailed "Plan B" involving either a Scottish currency pegged to sterling or a transitional currency board arrangement. This reduces uncertainty among economically cautious voters.
Oil Price Projections: The global oil market projections available during the campaign period are more optimistic in this timeline, strengthening the economic case for independence. (The subsequent oil price crash of 2014-2015 still occurs but does not influence the referendum result.)
EU Membership Clarity: Several influential EU officials make more encouraging statements about Scotland's potential path to continued EU membership, reducing fears of a complex accession process.
Campaign Dynamics: The Better Together campaign's messaging is perceived as more negative in this timeline, particularly a controversial advertisement targeting women voters that backfires more severely than in our timeline. Meanwhile, the grassroots elements of the Yes campaign achieve greater mobilization in key areas.
Turnout Patterns: Turnout is marginally higher in areas favorable to independence, particularly in working-class communities in Glasgow and the west of Scotland, while slightly lower in some pro-union areas.

The morning after the referendum, First Minister Alex Salmond declares victory at a jubilant press conference in Edinburgh, calling it "the birth of a new nation and the fulfillment of a democratic dream centuries in the making." In London, a visibly shaken Prime Minister David Cameron acknowledges the result, stating that while he deeply regrets Scotland's decision, he respects the democratic will of the Scottish people and pledges to work constructively toward an orderly transition to independence.

The referendum result initiates a complex process of negotiation between the Scottish and UK governments to determine the terms of separation, with a target date for formal independence set for March 24, 2016—the anniversary of the 1707 Acts of Union. This 18-month transition period is designed to allow time for the intricate disentanglement of political, legal, economic, and administrative systems that have been integrated for over three centuries.

Immediate Aftermath

Political Reconfiguration

The Yes vote triggered immediate political changes on both sides of the border. In Scotland, the SNP experienced a surge in membership, growing from approximately 25,000 to over 100,000 within a month of the referendum. First Minister Alex Salmond, having achieved his life's ambition, announced he would lead Scotland through the independence negotiations but step down once independence was formally achieved.

A Scottish Constitutional Convention was established, bringing together political parties, civic organizations, business groups, and trade unions to develop a written constitution for the new state. The SNP's preference for a constitutional monarchy with Queen Elizabeth II as head of state was confirmed, though republican elements within the independence movement secured a provision for a future referendum on this issue.

In the rest of the UK (rUK), Prime Minister David Cameron faced severe political pressure. Despite his pledge to honor the result, many Conservative MPs criticized his decision to allow the referendum. However, he survived a confidence vote within his party by promising to renegotiate Britain's relationship with the European Union and hold an in-out referendum—a commitment that would have significant consequences later.

The Labour Party, which had campaigned strongly against independence, faced an existential crisis in Scotland. Many traditional Labour voters had supported independence, and the party struggled to redefine its role in the new political landscape. The Liberal Democrats, junior partners in the UK coalition government, also suffered from their association with the failed No campaign.

Negotiation Process

The independence negotiations were structured around several joint ministerial committees covering key areas:

Financial and Economic Affairs: Addressing currency arrangements, division of assets and liabilities, and economic coordination during transition
External Affairs: Covering Scotland's international status, including EU and NATO membership processes
Defense and Security: Managing the division of military assets and establishing security cooperation frameworks
Citizenship and Immigration: Determining citizenship rights and border arrangements
Energy and Resources: Addressing North Sea oil and gas division and energy market integration
Public Services and Administration: Managing the separation of public services and civil service

The negotiations were contentious but generally constructive. Both governments recognized the importance of maintaining good relations and minimizing economic disruption. However, several issues proved particularly challenging:

Currency Arrangements: The UK government maintained its pre-referendum position rejecting a formal currency union. After intensive negotiations, Scotland opted for a transitional arrangement where it would continue using the pound sterling without formal UK agreement (similar to how some countries use the US dollar) while establishing a Scottish Central Bank and preparing to introduce its own currency within 3-5 years of independence.

National Debt: A compromise was reached whereby Scotland would assume a population-based share (approximately 8.4%) of UK national debt, in exchange for a corresponding share of UK assets. This arrangement was less favorable to Scotland than oil-revenue-based calculations would have suggested but more favorable than asset-based calculations.

North Sea Oil: Maritime boundaries were established based on international law, allocating approximately 90% of North Sea oil and gas fields to Scotland. However, the oil price crash that began in late 2014 significantly reduced the immediate economic value of these resources, complicating Scotland's fiscal outlook.

EU Membership: The European Commission established a special task force to address Scotland's unique situation. While confirming that Scotland would need to apply for membership, the EU developed an accelerated process recognizing Scotland's existing compliance with EU law. However, several member states with their own separatist movements, particularly Spain, insisted that Scotland complete a formal accession process.

Economic Adjustments

The referendum result created immediate economic volatility. The pound sterling fell approximately 7% against the dollar in the week following the vote, and the London stock market experienced significant fluctuations, with particular impact on companies with substantial Scottish operations.

Business reaction was mixed. Some major financial institutions, including Royal Bank of Scotland and Standard Life, announced plans to register their headquarters in London while maintaining operational presence in Scotland. Other businesses, particularly in renewable energy and technology sectors, expressed optimism about opportunities in an independent Scotland.

The Scottish government moved quickly to establish economic institutions, including a Scottish Treasury and the foundations for a central bank. It also initiated discussions with credit rating agencies to establish Scotland's sovereign rating, crucial for future government borrowing.

Property markets saw divergent trends, with some evidence of capital flight from Edinburgh's financial district but increased interest in residential property from those enthusiastic about the new nation's prospects. Overall economic activity slowed as businesses and consumers adopted a wait-and-see approach during the transition period.

Social and Cultural Impact

The referendum result intensified both excitement and anxiety in Scottish society. Pro-independence celebrations in Glasgow, Edinburgh, and other cities continued for several days, with spontaneous gatherings in iconic locations like Edinburgh Castle and Glasgow's George Square.

However, the 48.2% who voted against independence experienced a range of emotions from disappointment to genuine fear about the future. Community relations were strained in some areas, particularly in regions that had voted strongly against independence, including Orkney, Shetland, and the Scottish Borders.

Cultural expressions of the new national identity flourished, with increased interest in Scottish history, literature, and traditional arts. The Saltire (Scottish flag) became ubiquitous, and discussions about national symbols for the new state—including currency design, passports, and official heraldry—generated widespread public engagement.

Media organizations began restructuring, with BBC Scotland preparing to transition to a new Scottish public broadcaster, and Scottish editions of London-based newspapers reconsidering their positions and operations.

International Reactions

International reactions to Scotland's vote were mixed. The European Union expressed respect for the democratic process while emphasizing that detailed discussions on Scotland's future relationship with the EU would need to follow established procedures. NATO similarly indicated willingness to consider Scottish membership while raising questions about Scotland's future defense capabilities and policies.

The United States officially remained neutral, recognizing the referendum as an internal UK matter, but expressed hope for continued strong relationships with both Scotland and the remaining UK. Privately, US officials expressed concern about the implications for the UK's military capabilities and role in international affairs.

Countries with their own separatist movements reacted cautiously. Spain, dealing with Catalan independence aspirations, emphasized the differences between Scotland's agreed referendum and what it considered unauthorized separatist activities. Russia, seeing an opportunity to highlight Western democratic inconsistencies, was more openly supportive of Scotland's democratic choice.

The wider Commonwealth expressed general support for Scotland's decision while raising practical questions about Scotland's future membership and relationship with these international organizations.

Long-term Impact

Political Evolution

Scottish Governance

Scotland achieved formal independence on March 24, 2016, as planned. The first elections to the independent Scottish Parliament were held in May 2016, with the SNP winning a reduced majority as the political landscape began to realign around post-independence issues rather than the constitutional question that had dominated for so long.

By 2023, Scottish politics had developed a more conventional left-right spectrum, though with distinctive Scottish characteristics. The SNP, having achieved its primary goal, experienced some fragmentation, with a social democratic faction and a more center-right, business-oriented faction eventually emerging as separate parties. The Scottish Labour Party gradually rebuilt itself as a center-left alternative, while the Scottish Conservatives repositioned as a center-right, pro-business party without the constitutional unionism that had previously defined them.

Scotland's written constitution, ratified in 2018 after extensive public consultation, established a unicameral parliament elected by proportional representation, constitutional protections for civil liberties and social rights, and provisions for regional governance within Scotland. The monarchy remained head of state, though with reduced ceremonial roles compared to the UK tradition.

Rest of UK Politics

The loss of Scotland had profound implications for UK politics. Without Scotland's 59 Westminster seats, of which Labour had traditionally won a significant majority, the parliamentary arithmetic shifted in favor of the Conservatives. This contributed to their outright majority in the 2015 general election, removing the need for coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

The promised EU referendum took place in June 2016 as in our timeline. However, without Scotland's strongly pro-EU electorate, the Leave victory was more decisive—approximately 54% to 46%. This stronger mandate affected the approach to Brexit negotiations, with less internal questioning of the result's legitimacy.

The UK's political center of gravity shifted somewhat rightward without Scotland's more social democratic electorate. However, this also created space for Labour to recalibrate its message for English and Welsh voters without needing to balance different regional perspectives, potentially contributing to a clearer political identity in the long run.

The constitutional implications extended beyond Scotland. The independence vote accelerated discussions about devolution for other UK nations and regions. Wales received enhanced powers, while English regional devolution progressed more rapidly than in our timeline. Northern Ireland's situation remained complex, with Scottish independence adding another dimension to debates about its constitutional future.

Economic Developments

Scottish Economy

Scotland's economic path after independence was more challenging than many Yes campaigners had projected, though not as catastrophic as some No campaigners had warned. The collapse in oil prices from late 2014 created an immediate fiscal challenge, with petroleum revenues falling far short of projections used during the referendum campaign.

The new Scottish government faced difficult choices in its first budget, implementing moderate tax increases and spending constraints to address the shortfall. However, it prioritized investment in renewable energy, technology, and education as foundations for future growth.

Scotland introduced its own currency, the Scottish pound, in 2019 after a three-year preparation period. Initially pegged to sterling, it experienced some volatility in its early years but gradually stabilized. The Scottish Central Bank established a reputation for competence, though it maintained higher interest rates than the Bank of England to support the new currency.

EU membership was finalized in 2020 after a four-year process—longer than optimists had hoped but shorter than skeptics had predicted. This required Scotland to commit to eventually joining the euro, though with a similar opt-out mechanism to that previously held by the UK, effectively postponing this requirement indefinitely.

By 2023, Scotland's GDP per capita had recovered to approximately 97% of its pre-independence level in real terms, with growth patterns showing increasing divergence from rUK. Sectors including renewable energy, food and drink, tourism, and certain technology niches performed strongly, while financial services experienced some contraction before stabilizing.

rUK Economy

The remaining UK experienced significant economic adjustment following Scottish independence. The loss of North Sea oil revenues, while less impactful than it would have been in previous decades due to declining production, still affected public finances. However, this was partially offset by no longer needing to support public spending in Scotland, which had historically been higher per capita than the UK average.

The pound sterling weakened following both Scottish independence and the subsequent Brexit vote, falling approximately 15% on a trade-weighted basis between 2014 and 2017. While creating challenges for consumers through higher import prices, this improved export competitiveness for UK manufacturers.

London reinforced its position as a global financial center despite the dual shocks of Scottish independence and Brexit. Many financial institutions that had operated across the UK consolidated their headquarters functions in London while maintaining operational presence in Edinburgh.

Trade patterns evolved significantly. Scotland-rUK trade remained substantial but declined gradually as a percentage of Scotland's total trade, with EU trade increasing following Scotland's membership. The implementation of Brexit created a complex situation where Scotland remained in the EU single market while its largest trading partner (rUK) left, necessitating some border infrastructure and customs procedures between Scotland and England—a significant change after three centuries of economic integration.

International Relations

Scotland's Global Position

Independent Scotland established itself as a small but active European nation with a distinctive foreign policy emphasizing international cooperation, environmental leadership, and humanitarian concerns. It joined the EU as its 29th member state and NATO as its 30th member, though with a compromise position on nuclear weapons that allowed the continued operation of UK submarine bases during a transitional period while committing to their eventual removal.

Scotland developed particularly close relationships with Nordic countries, joining the Nordic Council as an observer and aligning with Nordic approaches to social policy, environmental protection, and international development. It also emphasized Commonwealth relationships and historical diaspora connections, particularly with Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

With limited military capabilities, Scotland focused on specialized contributions to international security, including peacekeeping, humanitarian assistance, and maritime security appropriate to its strategic location in the North Atlantic. Its defense forces, while modest in size, developed particular expertise in these areas.

rUK's Repositioning

The remaining UK underwent a significant recalibration of its international position, facing the dual adjustment of Scottish independence and Brexit. These changes accelerated the UK's "global Britain" strategy, emphasizing relationships beyond Europe, particularly with the United States, Commonwealth nations, and emerging economies.

The UK's permanent UN Security Council seat was retained, though not without some questioning from other powers about its reduced territory and population. Its nuclear deterrent remained operational, with arrangements negotiated for the continued use of Scottish bases during a transition period while alternative facilities were developed in England.

Military capabilities were somewhat reduced due to budget constraints and the loss of Scottish recruitment, but core capabilities were maintained through increased efficiency and technological focus. The UK remained one of Europe's leading military powers and a key NATO member.

UK-Scottish relations evolved from the initial tension of separation to a pragmatic partnership necessitated by geography, economic interdependence, and shared security interests. By 2023, bilateral mechanisms for cooperation on issues from counter-terrorism to fisheries management had created a functional if sometimes strained relationship.

Social and Cultural Developments

Scottish Identity and Society

Scottish national identity, already strong before independence, evolved in interesting ways after 2016. The initial surge of nationalist sentiment gradually gave way to more nuanced expressions of Scottishness that incorporated both traditional elements and forward-looking, cosmopolitan values.

Immigration to Scotland increased following independence and EU membership, creating a more diverse society, particularly in major cities. The Scottish government actively encouraged immigration to address demographic challenges, implementing more open policies than had previously applied under UK rules.

The Scottish education system, already distinct before independence, diverged further from UK models, with greater emphasis on broad-based learning, reduced standardized testing, and expanded vocational pathways. Universities maintained strong international reputations while developing distinctive approaches to funding and governance.

Healthcare remained publicly provided through NHS Scotland, which implemented several innovations in preventive care and service integration that distinguished it from other UK systems. However, fiscal constraints meant that some ambitious plans for expanded services were scaled back or delayed.

Cultural Expression and Media

Scottish cultural expression flourished in the post-independence environment. Film, television, literature, and music saw increased production and international recognition, supported by targeted government investment in cultural industries.

A new Scottish public broadcaster, established from the former BBC Scotland, developed a distinctive voice while maintaining some content-sharing arrangements with the BBC. Private media ownership diversified, with some Scottish-owned outlets emerging alongside UK and international media companies operating in the Scottish market.

Digital media and technology became particular areas of focus, with Edinburgh and Glasgow developing as significant European tech hubs leveraging Scotland's strong educational base and quality of life advantages to attract international talent.

rUK Society and Identity

In the remaining UK, the departure of Scotland prompted reflection on national identity and values. English, Welsh, and Northern Irish identities became more distinct in some ways, while a reconfigured British identity evolved that acknowledged the changed composition of the state.

The loss of Scotland, combined with Brexit, contributed to a period of national soul-searching about Britain's place in the world and its fundamental character. This manifested in cultural expressions ranging from nostalgic invocations of past greatness to forward-looking reimaginings of a more focused, distinctive role for the smaller UK.

Regional identities within England gained prominence, with increased devolution to cities and regions creating new centers of political and cultural energy beyond London. This partial decentralization helped address some of the governance imbalances that had contributed to the forces behind both Scottish independence and Brexit.

Environmental and Energy Developments

Scotland's Green Transition

Independent Scotland positioned itself as a leader in renewable energy and climate policy. Building on its substantial wind, wave, and tidal resources, Scotland achieved its target of generating 100% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2022, becoming one of the first countries in the world to do so.

This focus on green energy created a significant industry cluster, with domestic companies and international firms establishing manufacturing, research, and operational bases in Scotland. The sector became a major employer and export earner, partially offsetting the declining North Sea oil industry.

Scotland's climate policies were among the most ambitious in Europe, with legally binding targets for carbon reduction that exceeded EU requirements. This positioning as a "green nation" became an important element of Scotland's international brand and diplomatic identity.

Energy Relationships

Energy relationships between Scotland and rUK remained complex and interdependent. Scotland continued to export electricity to England and Wales through an enhanced grid interconnection, providing renewable energy to balance the more diverse generation mix in rUK.

The North Sea oil and gas industry, predominantly in Scottish waters, continued operations but with a gradual transition focus. The Scottish government implemented more stringent environmental requirements while supporting the sector's evolution toward renewable technologies, carbon capture, and decommissioning expertise.

Nuclear energy created some tension, with Scotland maintaining its opposition to new nuclear power stations while negotiating the complex issue of UK nuclear submarine bases. The eventual compromise involved a 15-year transition period for relocating the nuclear deterrent, combined with substantial economic adjustment assistance for affected communities.

Expert Opinions

Professor Michael Keating, political scientist at the University of Aberdeen, observes: "Scottish independence would have represented a profound but manageable change to both Scotland and the rest of the UK. The economic challenges would have been significant, particularly given the oil price collapse that coincided with the independence timeline, but not insurmountable. The most interesting long-term development might have been the divergence in social and economic models, with Scotland potentially evolving toward a more Nordic-style system while the rest of the UK might have pursued a more market-oriented approach. This policy laboratory effect could have provided valuable comparative insights about different approaches to shared challenges."

Dr. Kirsty Hughes, founder and former director of the Scottish Centre on European Relations, offers a perspective on international dimensions: "An independent Scotland would have faced a complex but navigable path to EU membership. While the process would not have been as automatic as some Yes campaigners suggested, neither would it have been as problematic as No campaigners warned. The most challenging aspect would have been managing the emerging border arrangements with England after Brexit—a scenario not fully anticipated during the 2014 campaign. Scotland would likely have developed a hybrid international identity, combining elements of Nordic, European, and British Isles influences, potentially serving as a bridge between these different spheres."

Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and leading polling expert, provides insight on political implications: "Scottish independence would have fundamentally altered the electoral arithmetic of UK politics, potentially leading to more frequent Conservative governments given Scotland's traditional support for Labour. However, this might have accelerated the political realignment we've seen in England anyway, with Labour adapting its message for English constituencies. In Scotland, the fascinating question would have been how politics realigned once the constitutional issue was resolved. The SNP, as a broad church united primarily by the independence goal, would likely have fragmented along more conventional ideological lines, creating a distinctive but recognizable Scottish political spectrum."