What If Sudan and South Sudan Never Separated?

The Actual History

Sudan, once Africa's largest country by land area, has a complex history marked by prolonged conflict and division. After gaining independence from Anglo-Egyptian rule in 1956, Sudan immediately faced internal strife. The country's population was deeply divided between the predominantly Arab and Muslim north and the largely African Christian and animist south. These divisions were exacerbated by British colonial policies that had administered the two regions separately and concentrated development and power in the north.

The First Sudanese Civil War erupted in 1955, just before independence, when southern army officers mutinied in fear of northern domination. This conflict lasted until 1972, when the Addis Ababa Agreement granted the south limited autonomy. However, peace proved fragile. In 1983, President Jaafar Nimeiri introduced Sharia law throughout Sudan and dissolved the southern autonomous region, triggering the Second Sudanese Civil War between the central government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) led by John Garang.

This second conflict became one of Africa's longest and deadliest civil wars, claiming over two million lives and displacing four million people. The conflict was fueled by competition over resources (particularly oil discovered in the south in the 1970s), religious differences, and the south's grievances over political and economic marginalization.

International pressure, war fatigue, and changing political dynamics eventually led to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005. The CPA, brokered with significant international support, particularly from the United States, Norway, and the United Kingdom, ended the civil war and established a six-year interim period. During this time, South Sudan would have regional autonomy, after which a referendum would determine whether it would remain part of Sudan or become independent.

On January 9, 2011, South Sudanese citizens voted overwhelmingly for independence, with 98.83% supporting secession. On July 9, 2011, the Republic of South Sudan was officially declared an independent state, becoming the world's newest country at the time.

The separation, however, did not bring the hoped-for peace and prosperity to either nation. South Sudan descended into its own civil war in December 2013 when President Salva Kiir, from the Dinka ethnic group, accused his former deputy Riek Machar, from the Nuer ethnic group, of plotting a coup. This conflict has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and created one of the world's worst refugee crises.

Meanwhile, Sudan continued to face internal conflicts in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile. The country experienced economic challenges exacerbated by the loss of oil revenue (75% of which came from fields now in South Sudan). Political instability culminated in the overthrow of long-ruling dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019 following massive protests, leading to a difficult and ongoing transition period.

Both countries still struggle with political instability, economic challenges, ethnic tensions, and humanitarian crises, with disputed territories along their border remaining points of contention. The separation, while fulfilling the South Sudanese desire for self-determination, has failed to deliver lasting peace or prosperity to the region.

The Point of Divergence

What if South Sudan never achieved independence from Sudan in 2011? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where the historical separation of these two nations never materialized, leading to a dramatically different political landscape in northeastern Africa.

Several plausible divergences could have prevented South Sudan's secession:

First, the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) might have taken a different form. Instead of providing for a referendum on independence, international mediators could have pushed harder for a federal solution that would grant substantial autonomy to the south while preserving Sudan's territorial integrity. The United States, a key player in the negotiations, might have prioritized regional stability over self-determination, particularly if different administration priorities were in place.

Alternatively, the promised referendum might have never materialized. President Omar al-Bashir's government, recognizing the likelihood of losing the oil-rich south, could have found pretexts to postpone the vote indefinitely, perhaps citing security concerns or inadequate preparations. With greater diplomatic support from China and Russia—both traditionally opposed to secession movements—Sudan might have successfully resisted international pressure to hold the referendum.

A third possibility involves the southern leadership. Had John Garang, the original leader of the SPLA/M who advocated for a unified but reformed Sudan, not died in a helicopter crash in 2005, the south's political direction might have been different. Garang's vision of a "New Sudan" emphasized transformation rather than separation. Under his continued leadership, the SPLM might have pursued greater representation within a unified Sudan rather than outright independence.

Finally, economic incentives could have altered the equation. A more equitable oil revenue-sharing agreement between north and south, perhaps brokered with international guarantees, might have reduced southern grievances sufficiently to make unity palatable. Additionally, if development resources had been more strategically directed to the south during the CPA interim period, demonstrating tangible benefits of unity, southern voters might have been less inclined to choose separation.

In our alternate timeline, we'll explore a combination of these factors: John Garang's survival, a modified CPA focusing on federalism rather than potential separation, and more genuine economic power-sharing—all contributing to Sudan remaining a single, though internally complex, nation.

Immediate Aftermath

A Different Kind of CPA Implementation (2005-2011)

In this alternate timeline, the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement takes a markedly different path. With John Garang surviving the helicopter crash and continuing to lead the SPLM, the focus shifts from preparation for potential independence to establishing a workable federal system.

The Government of National Unity, formed in September 2005, becomes a genuine power-sharing entity rather than a temporary arrangement awaiting the south's departure. Garang, as First Vice President of Sudan, uses his considerable moral authority and international connections to ensure southern interests are represented in Khartoum. His presence forces President Omar al-Bashir to make more substantial concessions than in our timeline.

"Garang's survival was the pivotal factor," notes a Western diplomat in this alternate history. "He had the vision and stature to make unity attractive, something his successors lacked or didn't prioritize."

Economic Arrangements and Oil Politics

The most immediate and tangible impact emerges in the economic sphere, particularly regarding oil resources. Under international pressure and Garang's insistence, a more transparent and equitable revenue-sharing system is established. The Wealth Sharing Protocol, which in our timeline allocated 50% of oil revenues from southern fields to the Government of Southern Sudan, is strengthened with additional guarantees and oversight mechanisms.

International oil companies, facing a more stable environment than the uncertainty of potential separation, increase their investments in Sudan's oil infrastructure. China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), already the largest foreign player in Sudan's oil industry, expands its operations but faces new competition as Western sanctions are gradually eased in response to improved governance.

The Oil Revenue Stabilization Account, jointly managed by northern and southern officials with international observation, becomes a cornerstone of the new economic relationship, helping buffer both regions against price fluctuations.

Security Integration Challenges

The integration of the SPLA into Sudan's national security framework presents significant challenges. Rather than the parallel military structures that developed in our timeline (where the SPLA essentially became South Sudan's army-in-waiting), a gradual integration process begins.

Joint Integrated Units (JIUs), comprised of both SAF (Sudanese Armed Forces) and SPLA soldiers, face initial tensions but eventually become functioning security entities in key areas, particularly around oil installations. This process is fraught with mistrust, occasional violent incidents, and accusations of favoritism, but the absence of a secession timeline removes the incentive for both sides to prepare for renewed conflict.

Demobilization of fighters proceeds slowly but steadily, with international funding supporting reintegration programs. Many ex-combatants find employment in the expanding oil sector and infrastructure projects.

Governance in Southern Sudan

The Government of Southern Sudan, established under the CPA as a sub-national entity, develops differently without the independence trajectory. Salva Kiir, serving as Garang's deputy rather than his successor as in our timeline, focuses on building administrative capacity and service delivery rather than nation-building preparations.

International donors, seeing an opportunity to support a peaceful federal solution, direct significant resources toward southern governance capacity. Educational institutions, healthcare facilities, and transportation infrastructure receive substantial investment. The southern capital of Juba experiences rapid growth, becoming a regional hub rather than a struggling national capital as in our timeline.

However, corruption remains a significant challenge, with tensions between the Khartoum government and southern authorities over budget allocations and development priorities. The Southern Sudan Anti-Corruption Commission, established with international support, achieves mixed results in addressing these issues.

Regional and International Reactions

Regional powers adjust to the continued unity of Sudan with varying degrees of enthusiasm. Egypt, traditionally concerned about the Nile waters and preferring a unified Sudan, strengthens its relationship with Khartoum. Ethiopia, which had hoped to benefit from a friendly independent South Sudan as a counterweight to Sudan, recalibrates its regional strategy.

Uganda, which had supported the SPLA during the civil war, gradually normalizes relations with Sudan while maintaining close ties with southern Sudanese leaders. Kenya, which hosted peace negotiations and stands to benefit from stability, emerges as a key trading partner for southern Sudan.

Internationally, the United States cautiously improves relations with Sudan, though concerns about Darfur continue to complicate full normalization. The European Union increases development assistance, focusing on governance and human rights improvements. China, Russia, and Arab states strengthen their economic and political ties with the intact Sudan, reinforcing its position as a significant regional player.

Long-term Impact

Political Evolution and Power Dynamics (2011-2025)

Over the years following the averted separation, Sudan evolves into an imperfect but functioning federal system. The initially centralized power structure gradually gives way to more genuine regional autonomy, though not without periodic crises and renegotiations.

By 2015, the Garang-led SPLM has transformed from a primarily southern movement into a national political force with substantial support among marginalized groups across Sudan. The party establishes alliances with Darfuri, Nuba Mountains, and eastern Sudanese political organizations, creating a coalition that challenges the traditional northern political establishment.

The 2015 Elections and Beyond

The 2015 national elections become a watershed moment. Unlike our timeline, where separate elections occurred in two countries, Sudan holds increasingly competitive national polls. While the National Congress Party (NCP) of Omar al-Bashir maintains its dominance, the SPLM and allied parties gain significant parliamentary representation and control several state governments beyond the south.

"What we've witnessed is the gradual emergence of a more inclusive political system," observes Dr. Mahmoud Ibrahim, a political scientist at the University of Khartoum in this alternate timeline. "Not through revolution or separation, but through the steady integration of formerly marginalized groups into national politics."

By 2019, the political landscape shifts dramatically when popular protests similar to those in our timeline erupt across Sudan. However, in this alternate reality, the protest movement includes stronger southern participation, giving it a truly national character. When the military removes al-Bashir from power, the transitional government that forms includes significant southern representation, with John Garang emerging as a unifying elder statesman before his retirement from active politics.

Economic Development Patterns

The retention of oil resources within a single country creates a significantly different economic trajectory. Sudan avoids the economic collapse that occurred in our timeline following the south's secession and the loss of 75% of oil revenues. Instead, oil production increases steadily, reaching over 500,000 barrels per day by 2018.

Diversification Efforts

The unified Sudan, with greater economic stability, makes more successful efforts at diversification:

Agricultural Renaissance: Significant investment flows into modernizing the agricultural sector, particularly in the fertile south. By 2020, Sudan becomes a major regional exporter of agricultural products.
Infrastructure Development: A national infrastructure plan connects previously isolated regions. The railroad network expands into southern Sudan for the first time, while road connections improve substantially. The White Nile becomes a major transportation corridor linking north and south.
Industry and Services: Khartoum and Juba develop complementary economic roles, with Khartoum focusing on financial services and light manufacturing, while Juba emerges as a center for agricultural processing and regional trade.

However, development remains uneven, with continued disparities between regions and ongoing debates about resource allocation. Corruption, though somewhat diminished by greater transparency requirements, continues to undermine economic potential.

Oil Politics and External Relations

The continued unity fundamentally alters Sudan's geopolitical position. With control over transit routes and refining capacity combined with the southern oil fields, unified Sudan emerges as a more significant regional player.

China remains the dominant foreign investor in the oil sector, but Western companies gradually return as governance improves and sanctions ease. By 2022, Sudan's oil industry features a diverse mix of Chinese, European, American, and Middle Eastern companies, reducing dependency on any single foreign partner.

The pipeline politics that complicated South Sudan-Sudan relations in our timeline are replaced by internal debates about revenue distribution. After several rounds of negotiation, a formula allocating oil revenues partly by region of origin, partly by population, and partly to national development funds achieves a workable compromise.

Cultural Integration and Identity Evolution

Perhaps the most fascinating development is the evolution of Sudanese national identity. Rather than the reinforcement of separation between "northern" and "southern" identities that occurred with the creation of two nations, a more complex and nuanced sense of Sudanese identity gradually emerges.

Arabic remains the official national language, but indigenous languages gain greater recognition. English becomes increasingly important as a second language throughout the country, not just in the south. Educational curricula evolve to acknowledge Sudan's diverse cultural heritage.

Religious dynamics also shift significantly. While Islam remains the majority religion nationally, constitutional protections for religious minorities strengthen over time. The implementation of Sharia law becomes increasingly limited to personal status issues among Muslims, with parallel legal systems officially recognized for Christians and practitioners of traditional religions.

Cultural exchange increases dramatically, with northern interest in southern music, art, and traditions growing steadily. Southern cultural festivals in Khartoum become major national events, while Islamic architectural influences appear in new construction in Juba and other southern cities.

Conflict and Reconciliation Processes

The absence of separation does not eliminate conflict entirely. Darfur, the Nuba Mountains, and Blue Nile regions still experience periods of instability. However, the development of coalition politics including southern leaders changes how these conflicts are addressed.

The SPLM, drawing on its own history of struggle and reconciliation, often serves as a mediating force in these conflicts. By 2018, negotiated settlements have reduced violence significantly in most areas, though isolated incidents continue.

Inter-communal conflicts between Dinka and Nuer groups, which erupted into civil war in South Sudan in our timeline, still occur but remain more localized and are addressed through a combination of traditional reconciliation mechanisms and formal state intervention. Without the pressure of nation-building and competition for national leadership, these conflicts prove more manageable.

Environmental and Resource Management

By 2025, unified Sudan faces significant environmental challenges but has more resources to address them. Climate change impacts, including increasing desertification in the north and changing rainfall patterns affecting the south, become national priorities.

The management of the Nile waters emerges as a critical issue, particularly as Ethiopia completes the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Unlike in our timeline, where Sudan and South Sudan took somewhat different positions, the unified Sudan negotiates more effectively with both Egypt and Ethiopia, securing favorable terms for water allocation and electricity purchase.

Environmental protection of southern Sudan's unique ecosystems receives greater attention than in our timeline, partly due to international pressure and partly due to recognition of their tourism potential. Several major national parks are established, protecting wildlife that suffered greatly during the civil war and subsequent instability in our timeline.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Jok Madut Jok, Professor of Anthropology and expert on Sudanese politics, offers this perspective: "The separation of South Sudan was both a triumph of self-determination and a tragedy of nation-building. In this alternate scenario where unity prevailed, we would likely see a different kind of struggle—not the violent implosion of a new nation, but the difficult, gradual work of making diversity function within a single political entity. The key question is whether southern Sudanese would have achieved the dignity and representation they sought through separation. History suggests that forced unity without addressing fundamental grievances only postpones conflict rather than resolving it. However, Garang's vision of a 'New Sudan' did offer an alternative path that was never fully tested."

Dr. Hala Al-Karib, Sudanese feminist scholar and civil society leader, provides this analysis: "A unified Sudan might have presented both opportunities and challenges for women's rights across the country. South Sudanese women, who played crucial roles in the independence struggle, might have found more allies by remaining connected to northern women's movements that have deep historical roots. Conversely, the cultural and religious differences that complicated gender politics in Sudan might have continued to create tensions. What's most interesting to consider is how women's organizations might have bridged these divides to address shared challenges like political representation, gender-based violence, and economic opportunity. In our actual timeline, women in both countries continue to face enormous challenges, suggesting that separation itself was neither a solution nor the primary problem for advancing gender equality."

Ambassador Princeton Lyman, who served as U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan and South Sudan during the separation period, reflects: "The international community, particularly the United States, approached the CPA implementation with the assumption that South Sudan would choose independence. We focused on making that process peaceful rather than exploring what might have made unity attractive. In retrospect, this created a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. A different international approach—one that invested as much in making unity work as we did in preparing for separation—might have produced different results. The question remains whether such unity could have been sustained without addressing the deep historical grievances and power imbalances that led to civil war in the first place. What this alternate scenario highlights is that the international community should be as creative and determined in supporting inclusive governance as it sometimes is in supporting self-determination movements."