What If Tasmania Developed Different Environmental Policies?

The Actual History

Tasmania's environmental history has been defined by intense conflicts between development and conservation interests, a struggle that came to prominence in the 1960s and continues to the present day. As Australia's island state, Tasmania possesses unique ecological features, including vast temperate rainforests, alpine regions, and endemic species found nowhere else on Earth. These natural assets made the island simultaneously valuable for resource extraction and conservation.

In the post-World War II era, Tasmania embarked on an aggressive industrialization program centered around hydroelectric development. The Hydro-Electric Commission (HEC), established in 1929, had gained immense political power by the 1950s and 1960s, exercising what historians have termed "hydro-industrialization" – a strategy of attracting industry through cheap electricity generated by damming Tasmania's rivers.

The pivotal moment in Tasmania's environmental history came with the flooding of Lake Pedder in 1972. Lake Pedder was a unique glacial lake in Tasmania's southwest wilderness, featuring pink quartzite beaches and endemic species. Despite growing protest movements and the formation of the world's first environmentally-focused political party (the United Tasmania Group) in 1972, the state government proceeded with the damming of the Serpentine and Huon Rivers, submerging Lake Pedder beneath a much larger artificial impoundment to generate hydroelectricity.

This controversy was followed by an even larger conflict over the proposed damming of the Franklin River in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The "No Dams" campaign against the Gordon-below-Franklin dam became Australia's largest environmental protest movement, gathering over 20,000 telegrams of protest and involving a blockade where nearly 1,500 people were arrested. The conflict culminated in federal intervention when the newly elected Hawke Labor government passed legislation to prevent the dam's construction, leading to a landmark Australian High Court case (Commonwealth v. Tasmania, 1983) that established federal authority to enforce international environmental agreements.

While the Franklin was saved, Tasmania's environmental policies continued to generate controversy. The forestry industry became the next battleground, with conflicts over old-growth logging and woodchip exports occurring throughout the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. The establishment of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area in 1982 (later expanded) protected significant portions of the state but left many contested areas open to logging.

Attempts at resolution included the Regional Forest Agreement (1997), the Tasmanian Community Forest Agreement (2005), and the Tasmanian Forests Agreement (2012), all of which sought to balance industry needs with conservation. The 2012 agreement, which would have protected an additional 500,000 hectares of forest, was repealed when the Liberal Party came to power in 2014.

Today, Tasmania's environmental policies reflect this complex history. While approximately 42% of the state is protected in national parks and reserves (the highest percentage in Australia), ongoing debates continue around tourism development in protected areas, aquaculture expansion, and mining. The island's renewable energy sector has grown, with Tasmania frequently generating 100% of its electricity from renewable sources, primarily hydropower but increasingly wind.

These environmental battles have profoundly shaped Tasmania's identity, economy, and politics, making the island both a symbol of conservation success and ongoing environmental conflict.

The Point of Divergence

What if Tasmania had embraced a fundamentally different approach to environmental policy in the late 1960s and early 1970s? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where Tasmania developed an early commitment to environmental protection that transformed its developmental trajectory.

The most logical point of divergence centers on the Lake Pedder controversy. In our timeline, despite the formation of the Lake Pedder Action Committee in 1967 and growing protests, the flooding proceeded in 1972. But several plausible alternative scenarios exist:

First, the federal Liberal government under Prime Minister John Gorton might have intervened to save Lake Pedder. Gorton showed interest in environmental issues and established Australia's first federal environmental ministry. In this alternate timeline, Gorton commits federal resources to protect Lake Pedder in 1971, offering Tasmania compensation for abandoning the project and establishing a stronger precedent for federal environmental protection.

Alternatively, the 1969 Tasmanian state election could have yielded different results. The Labor government under Eric Reece was committed to the dam, but if either internal party dynamics had shifted or the opposition Liberal Party had campaigned more effectively against the project, a change in government might have led to a reconsideration of the Lake Pedder damming.

A third possibility involves the influental Hydro-Electric Commission itself. If key figures within the HEC had recognized the growing environmental sentiment and adjusted their plans – perhaps influenced by emerging environmental impact assessment practices developing internationally – the organization might have pivoted toward alternative development models.

In this alternate timeline, the preservation of Lake Pedder becomes the catalyst for a transformative approach to Tasmania's environment and economy. Rather than seeing environmentalism and development as opposing forces, Tasmania embraces an integrated model where wilderness protection becomes central to economic planning, not peripheral to it.

This divergence would be particularly plausible given global context – the early 1970s marked the emergence of modern environmentalism, with the first Earth Day in 1970 and the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm in 1972. Tasmania, with its unique natural assets, was ideally positioned to become a pioneer in environmental policy had political and economic forces aligned differently at this crucial juncture.

Immediate Aftermath

Preservation of Lake Pedder and Political Realignment

The immediate consequence of our divergence would be the preservation of Lake Pedder in its natural state, likely as a newly designated national park. This victory for the nascent environmental movement would have significant ripple effects across Tasmanian and Australian politics.

The United Tasmania Group (UTG), formed in 1972 as the world's first "green" political party, would experience a dramatically different trajectory. Rather than being born from the defeat at Lake Pedder, the UTG would emerge as a positive force advocating for a new vision of Tasmania's future. With the momentum of success behind them, the UTG might secure several seats in the Tasmanian House of Assembly in the 1972 state election, potentially holding the balance of power in Tasmania's Hare-Clark electoral system.

This political realignment would likely force mainstream parties to reconsider their environmental policies. The Labor Party, traditionally aligned with hydroelectric development and industrial unions, would face internal tensions. Progressive Labor figures like Dr. Richard Jones, who had opposed the flooding of Lake Pedder, might gain influence within the party, pushing it toward environmental sensitivity.

Economic Transition Initiatives

The cancellation of the Middle Gordon Scheme would necessitate immediate economic adjustments. In our alternate timeline, rather than simply abandoning hydroelectric expansion, Tasmania pivots toward a diversified energy approach:

Smaller-Scale Hydro: Instead of mega-projects, the HEC shifts to smaller, less environmentally damaging hydroelectric developments, focusing on run-of-river systems rather than large impoundments.
Early Renewable Experimentation: Tasmania becomes an early adopter of wind energy, installing experimental wind turbines on the windswept west coast by the mid-1970s.
Energy Efficiency Programs: Without the assumption of endless cheap electricity, the state implements pioneering energy efficiency standards for buildings and industry.

The tourism industry would experience immediate growth focused on the preserved Lake Pedder. The construction of environmentally sensitive accommodation and walking tracks would create alternative employment for workers previously destined for hydroelectric construction projects.

Institutional Reforms

The success of environmental advocacy would likely trigger institutional reforms in environmental governance. By 1974-75, we would expect to see:

Environmental Impact Assessment Legislation: Tasmania introduces comprehensive environmental impact assessment requirements, potentially becoming the first Australian state to do so.
Department of Environment: The establishment of a dedicated environmental department with genuine authority in planning decisions, breaking the monopoly of development-focused agencies.
Reform of the HEC: The previously all-powerful Hydro-Electric Commission undergoes restructuring, with a new charter that explicitly includes environmental considerations and public consultation requirements.

International Recognition

Tasmania's pivot would attract international attention during this period of emerging global environmentalism. The unique preservation story of Lake Pedder would feature in international media, and Tasmania would likely send representatives to the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, positioning the island as a case study in alternative development.

By 1975, UNESCO might recognize the value of Tasmania's south-west wilderness, potentially designating the region as a Biosphere Reserve earlier than in our timeline, where Tasmanian wilderness did not receive World Heritage recognition until 1982.

Franklin River Campaign Avoided

The preservation of Lake Pedder fundamentally changes the dynamics around the Franklin River debate that would otherwise emerge in the late 1970s. With established environmental assessment processes and the precedent of Lake Pedder's protection, the HEC would likely not even propose the Gordon-below-Franklin dam in its original form. Instead, by 1978-79, the HEC might present alternatives that minimize ecological impact, or the project might be pre-emptively shelved in favor of the alternative energy approaches already gaining momentum.

This avoidance of the Franklin campaign means that the massive mobilization of protesters, blockades, and federal intervention that defined Australian environmental politics in the early 1980s takes a different form—less confrontational and more collaborative, focusing on establishing comprehensive wilderness protection rather than fighting individual threats.

Long-term Impact

Evolution of Tasmania's Economic Model (1980s-1990s)

The preservation of Lake Pedder and subsequent environmental policy shifts would fundamentally transform Tasmania's economy over subsequent decades. By the 1980s, Tasmania would be pioneering what we now call "green economy" principles, several decades before they became mainstream.

Tourism Transformation

Tourism development would follow a distinctly different pattern:

Wilderness Tourism: Rather than the mass tourism model that eventually emerged in our timeline, Tasmania develops a high-value, low-impact wilderness tourism approach. By the late 1980s, multiday guided wilderness experiences in the southwest would become internationally renowned, commanding premium prices.
Infrastructure Development: The state invests in carefully designed visitor infrastructure emphasizing minimal environmental impact. The Overland Track and other wilderness walks receive earlier development and management, becoming models for ecotourism globally.
Brand Development: By the early 1990s, Tasmania establishes a distinctive global brand centered on pristine wilderness and sustainable practices, attracting a wealthy international clientele seeking authentic natural experiences.

Forestry Transition

The contentious forestry debates that dominated Tasmania from the 1980s-2010s would take a dramatically different course:

Early Transition from Old-Growth Logging: With environmental values already established in policy, Tasmania begins transitioning away from old-growth logging in the 1980s, decades earlier than in our timeline.
Plantation and Selective Harvesting: Investment in plantation forestry accelerates, with Tasmania becoming a leader in sustainable forestry certification by the 1990s.
Value-Added Production: Rather than bulk woodchip exports, Tasmania focuses on high-value, low-volume timber products, with specialty Tasmanian timbers finding premium markets globally.

Agricultural Innovation

Agriculture undergoes a parallel transformation:

Early Organic Movement: Tasmania becomes an early adopter of organic farming practices, with a significant percentage of agricultural land converted to organic production by the 1990s.
Cool-Climate Specialties: Wine, berry fruits, and specialty vegetables receive increased investment, accelerating Tasmania's eventual reputation for premium agricultural products.
Protected Designation of Origin: Tasmania implements some of the southern hemisphere's first geographical indication protections for regional food products in the early 1990s.

Global Environmental Leadership (1990s-2000s)

By the 1990s, Tasmania's alternative development path positions it as a global leader in environmental policy innovation:

Climate Policy Leadership

Early Carbon Accounting: Tasmania implements comprehensive carbon accounting systems for its forests and industries by the mid-1990s, becoming one of the first jurisdictions globally to do so.
Carbon Neutrality Goals: By 2000, Tasmania sets the ambitious goal of becoming carbon-negative by 2020, leveraging its renewable energy and forest resources.
Clean Energy Expansion: Wind power development accelerates, with offshore wind exploration beginning in the 2000s, supplementing hydroelectric resources and positioning Tasmania as an energy exporter to mainland Australia through an expanded Bass Strait interconnector.

Biodiversity Conservation

Comprehensive Reserve System: Rather than the decades of conflict over forest reserves, Tasmania establishes a comprehensive, science-based reserve system by the early 1990s, protecting representative examples of all ecological communities.
Marine Protection: Tasmania leads Australia in marine protected area establishment, creating a network of marine reserves around the island by the early 2000s.
Species Recovery Programs: Successful conservation programs for threatened species like the Tasmanian devil and orange-bellied parrot benefit from sustained investment and community support, potentially avoiding some of the catastrophic population declines seen in our timeline.

Global Connections and Influence (2000s-2010s)

Tasmania's alternative path creates distinctive international relationships and influences:

Nordic Connections: Strong cultural and policy connections develop with Nordic countries, particularly Iceland and Norway, focused on balancing resource use with environmental protection in island/coastal economies.
Environmental Education Hub: Tasmanian universities become global centers for environmental studies, attracting international students and researchers specializing in island sustainability and wilderness management.
Technology Transfer: Tasmania develops and exports environmental management technologies and systems, particularly in areas like wilderness management, sustainable forestry, and renewable energy integration.

Present Day Tasmania (2025)

By our present day, this alternate Tasmania would look remarkably different from our timeline:

Economic Profile

Advanced Green Economy: Tasmania boasts one of the most advanced green economies globally, with over 60% of its economic output coming from environmentally certified industries.
Population Dynamics: The population is approximately 650,000-700,000 (versus today's approximately 530,000), reflecting greater economic opportunities attracting migration from mainland Australia and internationally.
Income Levels: Per capita income exceeds the Australian average (the reverse of our timeline), primarily through high-value exports and the premium tourism sector.

Physical and Cultural Landscape

Urban Development: Hobart and Launceston have developed as compact, walkable cities with distinctive architectural styles blending heritage preservation with energy-efficient modern design.
Transportation Networks: An extensive electric public transport system connects major populations, with Tasmania having the highest electric vehicle adoption rate in Australia.
Cultural Life: A distinctive Tasmanian cultural identity emphasizes the connection between creative arts and nature, with internationally recognized environmental arts festivals and a thriving creative economy.

Political Influence

Federal Relations: Tasmania wields significantly more influence in Australian federal politics, frequently setting the agenda on environmental and sustainability issues nationally.
Global Standing: The state has observer status in several international environmental forums, unusual for a subnational entity, reflecting its recognized leadership in sustainable development.
Indigenous Reconciliation: The alternate path includes earlier and more comprehensive recognition of Aboriginal Tasmanians, with Indigenous land management practices integrated into wilderness management and formal land returns occurring decades earlier than in our timeline.

In this alternate 2025, Tasmania stands as a living laboratory of what might have been possible had different environmental policy choices been made across Australia and globally. While still facing challenges from climate change and global economic pressures, this Tasmania demonstrates a fundamentally different development path where environmental protection served as the foundation for prosperity rather than its perceived opponent.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Amanda Wilson, Professor of Environmental History at the University of Tasmania, offers this perspective: "The Lake Pedder decision represents one of Australia's clearest environmental policy crossroads. What makes this alternate timeline particularly compelling is that it wasn't far-fetched at all—we came remarkably close to preserving Lake Pedder. Prime Minister Gorton had shown interest, and even within the HEC, there were voices questioning the project's value relative to its impact. Had Lake Pedder been saved, the framework of environmental decision-making in Australia would have fundamentally shifted, establishing an early precedent for valuing intact natural systems alongside more traditional economic metrics. Perhaps most significantly, it would have prevented the bitter polarization that has characterized Tasmania's environmental politics for generations."

James Richardson, Former CEO of Tourism Tasmania and environmental economist, provides this economic analysis: "What's fascinating about the alternate Tasmania scenario is that it anticipates by decades the 'clean and green' premium market positioning that the state eventually embraced anyway, but much later and with its natural assets already compromised. The economic data increasingly shows that Tasmania's highest value proposition internationally is its environmental distinctiveness. Had this been recognized and protected in the 1970s, Tasmania would have had a 30-year head start on building the sophisticated eco-economy that it's still struggling to develop today. The additional decades of brand development and infrastructure refinement would likely have placed Tasmania in a completely different economic position—less dependent on federal support and with significantly higher per capita income derived from premium exports and experiences."

Dr. Nala Patel, Global Climate Policy Fellow at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, contextualizes Tasmania's alternate path globally: "This scenario illuminates something profound about pathways to sustainability. Small, resource-rich jurisdictions like Tasmania, Iceland, Costa Rica, or Bhutan have the potential to function as 'policy laboratories' for sustainable development models. What makes the Tasmania case so instructive is that it could have demonstrated decades earlier that environmental protection and economic prosperity aren't opposing forces. The world desperately needed such working models in the 1980s and 1990s when global environmental frameworks were being established. A Tasmania that had successfully integrated wilderness protection with a thriving economy would have provided powerful evidence against the persistent 'environment versus economy' framing that has hampered climate action globally. Instead of being a battleground, Tasmania could have been a blueprint."