What If The Alaska Purchase Never Happened?

The Actual History

In the mid-19th century, the Russian Empire faced mounting financial difficulties and geopolitical pressures that led its leadership to consider divesting its North American territory, known as Russian America. The region, comprising what is now the state of Alaska, had been claimed by Russia since the late 18th century following explorations by Vitus Bering. By the 1860s, the Russian-American Company that administered the territory was struggling financially, and Russia's defeat in the Crimean War (1853-1856) had exposed the empire's military vulnerabilities.

Tsar Alexander II and his advisors recognized several uncomfortable realities about their American possession. First, the territory was difficult and expensive to defend, being separated from mainland Russia by thousands of miles. Second, they feared that in any future conflict with Britain, Russian America would be quickly seized by British forces from Canada. Third, the fur trade, which had been the primary economic activity, was in decline due to overhunting.

On the American side, Secretary of State William H. Seward, serving under Presidents Abraham Lincoln and Andrew Johnson, was a fervent expansionist who envisioned American territorial growth across the continent and beyond. Seward had long expressed interest in acquiring Russian America, seeing it as a step toward greater American commercial and strategic influence in the Pacific.

Negotiations began in earnest in March 1867, and proceeded remarkably quickly. On March 30, 1867, the United States and Russia signed the Treaty of Cession, with the U.S. agreeing to purchase Alaska for $7.2 million – approximately two cents per acre. The U.S. Senate approved the treaty on April 9, 1867, by a vote of 37 to 2. However, the House of Representatives, which needed to appropriate the funds, was less enthusiastic. Critics mockingly referred to the purchase as "Seward's Folly," "Seward's Icebox," and "Johnson's Polar Bear Garden," suggesting the territory was a worthless frozen wasteland.

Despite the criticism, the House eventually approved funding in July 1868, and the formal transfer of the territory occurred on October 18, 1867, now celebrated as Alaska Day. The United States officially took possession, raising the American flag at the ceremony in Sitka, the former capital of Russian America.

The wisdom of the purchase became increasingly apparent in subsequent decades. The Klondike Gold Rush of the 1890s brought thousands of prospectors to the region. In 1968, massive oil reserves were discovered at Prudhoe Bay. Alaska's strategic importance became evident during World War II and the Cold War, as it served as a crucial frontier between the United States and the Soviet Union across the narrow Bering Strait.

Alaska became the 49th state of the Union on January 3, 1959. Today, with abundant natural resources including oil, natural gas, timber, and seafood, alongside its strategic position in the Arctic, Alaska's acquisition is recognized as one of the most successful land deals in American history rather than the folly it was once considered.

The Point of Divergence

What if the Alaska Purchase never happened? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where the 1867 negotiations between Secretary of State William Seward and Russian Minister to the United States Eduard de Stoeckl collapsed without reaching an agreement, leaving Alaska in Russian hands.

Several plausible mechanisms could have prevented the purchase:

First, the negotiations might have broken down over price. In our timeline, the agreed sum of $7.2 million was already considered excessive by many Americans. If Russian negotiators had held out for a substantially higher amount—perhaps $10 million or more—political opposition in Washington might have become insurmountable. Seward, despite his enthusiasm for the territory, would have been unable to secure congressional approval for such an expenditure in the financially strained post-Civil War era.

Alternatively, domestic American politics could have derailed the purchase. President Andrew Johnson was deeply unpopular and facing impeachment proceedings during this period. In our timeline, he narrowly survived impeachment in May 1868. If congressional Republicans had moved more quickly against Johnson, the resulting political chaos might have pushed the Alaska negotiation aside. An administration fighting for its survival would have lacked the political capital to pursue a controversial territorial acquisition.

A third possibility involves Britain intervening in the negotiations. The British Empire, concerned about American expansion that might threaten its Canadian territories, could have made a counter-offer to Russia. In fact, historical records indicate some British interest in acquiring Alaska to connect it with Canada. If Britain had presented a serious proposal, Russia might have leveraged this to drive up the American price or ultimately chosen to sell to Britain instead.

Finally, a change in Russian leadership or priorities could have altered the outcome. Tsar Alexander II survived an assassination attempt in April 1866. Had a subsequent attempt succeeded before the Alaska negotiations concluded, his successor might have reconsidered the decision to sell this vast territory, perhaps seeing new strategic value in maintaining a Russian presence in North America.

In this alternate timeline, we assume that a combination of these factors—particularly heightened American domestic opposition and British diplomatic maneuvering—prevented the Alaska Purchase from being completed in 1867 or in subsequent years, creating a profoundly different geopolitical landscape that would shape the development of North America and global politics for generations to come.

Immediate Aftermath

Russian America in the Late 19th Century

Following the failed purchase negotiations, Russia faced the challenge of revitalizing its neglected North American territory. Tsar Alexander II, recognizing that the territory could not simply be abandoned after the unsuccessful sale attempt, implemented a series of reforms to strengthen Russian presence in Alaska.

The Russian-American Company, which had been dissolved in anticipation of the sale, was reorganized as the Imperial Alaskan Territory Administration (IATA). This new administrative body received increased funding from St. Petersburg and was tasked with both economic development and strengthening Russian sovereignty in the region.

By the mid-1870s, Russia began sending more settlers to Alaska, primarily from eastern Siberia, with incentives including free land grants and tax exemptions. However, these efforts achieved only modest success, with the Russian population rising from approximately 800 to roughly 3,000 by 1880. The indigenous population, meanwhile, continued to suffer from disease and cultural disruption, similar to native populations elsewhere in North America.

The Alaskan Gold Rushes Under Russian Rule

The discovery of gold in Alaska and the neighboring Yukon Territory in the 1880s and 1890s dramatically changed the territory's trajectory. The Juneau gold strike of 1880, followed by the major Klondike Gold Rush of 1896-1899, brought thousands of American, Canadian, and international prospectors flooding into the region.

This presented both an opportunity and a challenge for Russian authorities. While the gold rush brought economic activity and customs revenue, it also threatened Russian sovereignty as Americans and Canadians far outnumbered Russian officials and settlers. By 1900, Sitka, New Archangel (now Sitka), and other Russian Alaskan settlements were cosmopolitan boomtowns where Russian administrators struggled to maintain authority over the predominantly English-speaking mining population.

The Russian Empire responded by significantly increasing its military presence, establishing new forts and deploying several thousand troops to the territory. This created tensions with both the United States and Britain, as incidents involving American miners and Russian authorities became commonplace along the poorly defined borders.

American and British Reactions

The United States, particularly under President William McKinley (1897-1901), expressed growing concern about Russian militarization of Alaska. American newspapers regularly featured stories about the mistreatment of American citizens by Russian authorities in Alaska, and some expansionist politicians began calling for intervention to "liberate" the territory.

Britain, through Canada, found itself in a complex position. While concerned about Russian presence on their northwest border, British authorities also saw Russia as a potential counterbalance to growing American influence in the region. The Hay-Herbert Treaty of 1899 (replacing the actual Hay-Pauncefote Treaty of our timeline) established formal boundaries between Russian Alaska, British Columbia, and the Yukon Territory, temporarily reducing tensions.

Strategic Reassessment on All Sides

By the turn of the century, Russian investment in Alaska had increased substantially, driven by both strategic concerns and the discovery of natural resources. Trans-Siberian Telegraph extensions reached Alaskan settlements, improving communications with the Russian mainland. Regular steamship service connected Vladivostok with Sitka and other Alaskan ports.

For Russia, Alaska had transformed from a liability into a strategic asset—a foothold in North America that enhanced its status as a Pacific power. However, maintaining this remote territory required significant military and financial resources at a time when the Russian Empire faced growing internal unrest and challenges in Europe and Asia.

The United States, meanwhile, pursued diplomatic and economic strategies to increase its influence in Russian Alaska. American companies secured concessions for mining and timber operations, while the U.S. government established consulates in major settlements to protect American interests.

Canada, with British backing, strengthened its northwestern frontier, accelerating development of the Yukon and northern British Columbia while carefully monitoring Russian activities across the border. This period saw increased infrastructure development along the Canadian-Russian frontier, including telegraph lines and improved trails that would later become the basis for roads and railways.

These developments set the stage for the complex geopolitical situation that would evolve in the early 20th century, with Alaska becoming an increasingly important strategic territory contested by great powers in the Pacific.

Long-term Impact

Alaska in the Early 20th Century

As the 20th century dawned, Russian Alaska entered a period of transformation and uncertainty. The Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905 had immediate repercussions for the territory. Japan's stunning victory over Russia demonstrated the empire's vulnerability in the Pacific, prompting both the United States and Canada to reassess the strategic situation in northwestern North America.

During the 1905 Russian Revolution, Alaska experienced its own political turmoil. Liberal and revolutionary sentiments spread among both Russian settlers and the increasingly multicultural mining communities. In several settlements, workers' councils (soviets) briefly took control before imperial authorities, supported by naval forces deployed from Vladivostok, reestablished order.

Tsar Nicholas II, recognizing Alaska's growing strategic and economic importance, authorized increased investment in the territory. Between 1906 and 1914, Russia constructed a rudimentary railway network connecting key settlements, improved port facilities, and established new military garrisons. The discovery of significant coal deposits near the Bering Sea coast provided both an economic boost and a strategic resource for Russian naval operations in the Pacific.

World War I and the Russian Revolution

When World War I erupted in 1914, Alaska initially seemed far removed from the conflict. However, its strategic position gained new significance when the United States entered the war in 1917, as American supply lines to Russia often passed through Alaskan ports.

The Russian Revolution of 1917 and the subsequent civil war created a chaotic situation in Alaska. As central authority collapsed in Russia proper, Alaska became effectively autonomous under a provisional government composed of tsarist officials, business leaders, and moderate socialists. This government maintained nominal loyalty to Russia while establishing practical working relationships with American and Canadian authorities.

In 1918, with the Russian Civil War intensifying, President Woodrow Wilson authorized a limited American military presence in Alaska to "protect American citizens and interests." This intervention, alongside similar Allied efforts in Siberia and European Russia, aimed to support anti-Bolshevik forces. Canadian forces likewise secured border regions near the Yukon.

By 1922, as the Bolsheviks consolidated control over most of the former Russian Empire, Alaska's status remained unresolved. The provisional government in Sitka, now calling itself the "Russian Alaskan Republic," controlled most of the territory with tacit American and Canadian support. The signing of the Washington Naval Treaty of 1922 included provisions recognizing the special status of Alaska while deferring a final determination of sovereignty.

The Interwar Period: The Alaskan Republic

Throughout the 1920s, the Russian Alaskan Republic functioned as a de facto independent state with close economic ties to the United States and Canada. The Soviet Union maintained its claim to the territory but, focused on internal consolidation and European affairs, took no significant actions to reassert control.

The Great Depression hit Alaska hard, as mining operations contracted and investment dried up. However, the territory's rich fishing grounds provided subsistence and commercial opportunities that mitigated the worst effects. During this period, increasing numbers of Russian émigrés fleeing Soviet rule settled in Alaska, strengthening its unique cultural character as a bastion of pre-revolutionary Russian culture and Orthodox Christianity alongside indigenous traditions and North American influences.

By the late 1930s, as global tensions rose, Alaska's strategic position once again came to the forefront of international attention. Japan's expansionist policies in the Pacific caused particular concern. The United States, Canada, and the Alaskan Republic signed the Juneau Defense Agreement of 1938, establishing a framework for military cooperation to counter potential Japanese aggression.

World War II and Its Aftermath

The outbreak of World War II dramatically changed Alaska's situation. Following Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941, Alaska became a critical front in the Pacific War. In June 1942, Japanese forces occupied several islands in the Aleutian chain—both the American-owned islands and those belonging to the Alaskan Republic.

This crisis led to full military integration between American, Canadian, and Alaskan forces. The Alaska-Canadian (ALCAN) Highway was constructed in 1942-43, connecting the territory with the continental United States through Canada for the first time. By 1943, Allied forces had successfully expelled Japanese forces from the Aleutians, and Alaska became a major staging area for operations in the North Pacific.

The Grand Alliance between the Western powers and the Soviet Union created a delicate diplomatic situation regarding Alaska. Stalin's government revived Russian claims to the territory, but pragmatically deferred pressing these claims while the war against Nazi Germany continued. The Yalta Conference of February 1945 included secret provisions regarding Alaska's future, with Stalin reluctantly agreeing to recognize the independence of the Alaskan Republic in exchange for certain economic concessions and a demilitarized status for the territory after the war.

Cold War Alaska: A Neutral Buffer

As the Cold War emerged following World War II, Alaska's position became increasingly precarious. The Alaskan Republic, now formally recognized by most nations including, reluctantly, the Soviet Union, declared a policy of armed neutrality. The Sitka Accords of 1948 established Alaska as a demilitarized neutral state, with its security guaranteed by both the United States and the Soviet Union—an arrangement similar to Austria's in our timeline.

This unique situation created what became known as "The Alaskan Compromise"—one of the few functional diplomatic arrangements between East and West during the early Cold War. Alaska maintained open trade with both blocs and developed a distinctive mixed economy with elements of both capitalism and social democracy.

The discovery of significant oil reserves at Prudhoe Bay in 1968 transformed Alaska's economic prospects. Under the leadership of President Vladimir Nabokov Jr. (son of the famous Russian-American novelist who, in this timeline, settled in Alaska rather than the United States), the Alaskan Republic established a sovereign wealth fund modeled partly on Norway's approach to managing oil revenues.

Modern Era: An Arctic Tiger

By the 21st century, the Alaskan Republic had emerged as one of the world's most prosperous small nations, with a population of approximately 1.2 million—larger than in our timeline due to different migration patterns, particularly from Russia, both before and after the Soviet period. Its economy, based on oil, natural gas, mining, sustainable forestry, fisheries, and tourism, boasted one of the highest per capita GDPs globally.

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 opened a new chapter in Alaska's history. Cultural and economic ties with post-Soviet Russia strengthened, while the strategic importance of the Bering Strait region grew with the opening of Arctic shipping routes due to climate change.

In geopolitical terms, modern Alaska serves as a unique bridge between the United States, Canada, and Russia. The Port of Sitka has become a major transshipment hub for Pacific-Arctic trade, while Alaskan universities lead in Arctic research and indigenous studies. The territory's constitutional system, blending Russian, American, and indigenous influences, has created a distinctive political culture with strong environmental protections and indigenous rights.

The absence of Alaska from American territory has subtly but significantly altered U.S. development. Without Alaskan oil resources, the United States developed alternative energy sources more aggressively beginning in the 1970s. Strategically, the U.S. military focused more intensely on its Pacific island territories, with Guam and Hawaii receiving greater development and military investment than in our timeline.

By 2025, the relationship between the Alaskan Republic and its larger neighbors remains cordial but occasionally tense, as all parties maneuver for advantage in the increasingly accessible and resource-rich Arctic region. Climate change has made the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route more viable for shipping, enhancing Alaska's strategic position as a gateway between the Pacific and the Arctic.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Elena Baranova, Professor of Russian-American Relations at the University of Sitka, offers this perspective: "The continued Russian presence in North America through Alaska represents one of history's great 'what-ifs.' In our actual timeline, Russia's sale of Alaska marked the end of its American colonial project. Had Russia retained Alaska, the entire geopolitical development of the North Pacific would have unfolded differently. The Russian Empire—and later the Soviet Union—would have maintained a direct presence on the North American continent, creating a three-way great power dynamic in the region rather than the primarily U.S.-Canadian relationship that actually developed. Alaska would likely have become a flashpoint during the Cold War, perhaps similar to Berlin or Cuba, rather than the secure American territory it actually became."

Professor James Richardson, Chair of Arctic Security Studies at Georgetown University, provides this analysis: "An enduring Russian Alaska would have profoundly shaped American strategic thinking throughout the 20th century. The United States would have faced a permanent Russian presence just miles from its shores, creating a constant security challenge that would have required significant military resources to monitor. During the Cold War, this would have created a northern front that would have stretched American defensive planning considerably. On the other hand, the absence of Alaska's natural resources—particularly oil—from American control would have accelerated U.S. investment in both domestic energy production elsewhere and alternative energy technologies. We might have seen a very different trajectory in American energy policy without the Prudhoe Bay discoveries being under U.S. control."

Dr. Margaret Koyukuk, Director of the Indigenous Futures Institute and member of the Yup'ik Nation, considers the human impact: "For the indigenous peoples of Alaska—Tlingit, Haida, Athabascan, Aleut, Yup'ik, Inupiat and others—Russian retention of Alaska would have meant a significantly different colonial experience than what occurred under American rule. The Russian approach to indigenous populations, while certainly not benign, differed markedly from American policies. Russian authorities tended to focus on trade relationships and conversion to Orthodox Christianity while interfering less with traditional governance structures than American authorities did with their assimilationist boarding school programs and individualistic land allotment systems. Indigenous Alaskans in this alternate timeline might have maintained stronger traditional governance systems and land rights, possibly resulting in greater cultural continuity into the modern era. However, they would also have faced the turmoil of the Russian Revolution and Soviet period, which might have brought different but equally disruptive pressures on indigenous communities."