What If The Crusades Never Happened?

The Actual History

The Crusades, spanning approximately two centuries from 1095 to 1291, represented a series of religious wars sanctioned by the Latin Church. These military campaigns were primarily directed toward recovering the Holy Land from Islamic rule and providing armed support to Christian kingdoms in the eastern Mediterranean. The catalyst for this extensive military endeavor was the Byzantine Emperor Alexios I Komnenos' appeal for mercenaries to help defend his empire against the Seljuk Turks. Pope Urban II transformed this request into a much broader call for a holy war during the Council of Clermont in November 1095.

Urban's sermon ignited widespread enthusiasm across Western Europe, particularly among French and Norman knights. His call promised remission of sins for those who participated, effectively turning military conquest into a form of religious devotion. The First Crusade (1095-1099) proved surprisingly successful from the Western Christian perspective, capturing Antioch in 1098 and Jerusalem in 1099, resulting in the establishment of four Crusader states: the County of Edessa, the Principality of Antioch, the County of Tripoli, and the Kingdom of Jerusalem.

However, this initial success was followed by centuries of conflict. Subsequent crusades were launched in response to various setbacks. The Second Crusade (1147-1149) was prompted by the fall of Edessa but ended in failure. The Third Crusade (1189-1192), sparked by Saladin's recapture of Jerusalem in 1187, failed to retake the holy city but secured Christian access to it. The controversial Fourth Crusade (1202-1204) infamously diverted to Constantinople, sacking the Byzantine capital and establishing the Latin Empire.

Later crusades became increasingly politicized and less effective. The Children's Crusade (1212), a popular movement lacking official sanction, ended in tragedy with many participants sold into slavery. The Fifth through Ninth Crusades achieved little lasting impact, and by 1291, with the fall of Acre, the crusader presence in the Holy Land had ended.

The Crusades left profound and lasting impacts across multiple spheres. Politically, they accelerated the decline of the Byzantine Empire and increased papal authority in European affairs. Economically, they enhanced Mediterranean trade, with Italian city-states like Venice and Genoa particularly benefiting. Culturally, they facilitated intellectual exchange, reintroducing many Ancient Greek texts preserved by Islamic scholars to Western Europe, contributing to the eventual Renaissance.

However, the Crusades also deepened religious divides, cementing antagonism between Christianity and Islam, while also exacerbating tensions between Eastern and Western Christianity. They normalized religious violence and contributed to increased antisemitism in Europe, with Jewish communities often targeted by crusaders. The concept of "holy war" became firmly established in Western consciousness, and the military orders created during this period, such as the Knights Templar and the Teutonic Knights, remained influential institutions long after the crusading era ended.

By the time the last crusader strongholds fell in the late 13th century, the movement had transformed European society, Middle Eastern politics, and intercultural relations in ways that continue to resonate today, often cited as a historical root of modern tensions between Western and Middle Eastern civilizations.

The Point of Divergence

What if the Crusades never happened? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where the massive religious military campaigns that reshaped medieval politics, economics, and culture never materialized.

The most plausible point of divergence centers on Pope Urban II's fateful decision at the Council of Clermont in November 1095. In our timeline, Urban transformed Byzantine Emperor Alexios I Komnenos' modest request for mercenary assistance against the Seljuk Turks into a sweeping call for armed pilgrimage to recapture Jerusalem. This alternate history posits several possible mechanisms by which this transformative moment might have unfolded differently:

First, Pope Urban II might have responded to Alexios' request in a more measured fashion, arranging only for the limited military assistance the Byzantine Emperor actually sought rather than launching a broader religious movement. Urban was a politically astute pope who had already strengthened papal authority through church reforms; he might have calculated that a more limited response would better serve the papacy's interests while still aiding fellow Christians.

Alternatively, Emperor Alexios himself might never have sent his fateful appeal to the Council of Piacenza in 1095. The Byzantine Empire, though under pressure, had previously managed Seljuk advances through diplomacy and limited military action. A slightly different Byzantine military situation, perhaps with more successful resistance at Manzikert in 1071, might have obviated the need for Western assistance altogether.

A third possibility involves Urban's death before the Council of Clermont. Urban suffered from poor health during his papacy; had he died in mid-1095, his successor might have taken a different approach to Alexios' request. Not every pope would have had Urban's particular vision of uniting Western Christendom under papal leadership through a holy war.

Finally, the response to Urban's call might have faltered despite his rhetoric. The First Crusade's success depended on the enthusiasm of French and Norman nobility. Different domestic conditions in Western Europe—perhaps ongoing conflicts that occupied potential crusaders, or a more severe economic downturn limiting resources—could have resulted in Urban's call falling on deaf ears.

In this alternate timeline, we will consider the most comprehensive scenario: Pope Urban II decides to respond to Emperor Alexios with only the specific Byzantine request for mercenary assistance, without invoking Jerusalem or promising spiritual rewards for participation. This restraint prevents the crystallization of the crusading movement while still acknowledging the historical conditions that prompted the original Byzantine appeal.

Immediate Aftermath

Byzantine-Seljuk Relations

Without the massive influx of Western European knights and soldiers, the Byzantine Empire would have continued its existing strategy of containment and diplomacy with the Seljuk Turks:

Limited Western Assistance: Emperor Alexios would likely have received a much smaller contingent of Western mercenaries—perhaps a few thousand professional soldiers rather than the tens of thousands of crusaders who arrived in our timeline. These forces would have been directly integrated into Byzantine command structures.
Continued Byzantine Diplomacy: The Byzantine Empire had long excelled at playing potential enemies against each other. Without crusader intervention, Alexios would have continued negotiating with various Seljuk factions, likely making territorial concessions in less strategic areas while focusing on securing core Byzantine interests.
Gradual Recovery: By 1100, the Byzantine Empire might have stabilized its eastern frontier through a combination of limited military action and strategic treaties. The empire would remain significantly smaller than its former glory but more internally coherent than in our timeline, where crusader states complicated Byzantine foreign policy.

Impact on the Latin Church

Pope Urban II's papacy would have followed a markedly different trajectory without the crusading movement:

Alternative Reform Focus: Without the unifying crusader cause, Urban would likely have doubled down on the Gregorian Reform movement, continuing efforts to reduce secular influence in church appointments and strengthen ecclesiastical independence.
Different Papal Authority Development: The crusades significantly enhanced papal prestige and practical authority. Without them, papal power would have developed more slowly and along different lines, possibly focusing more on theological leadership and internal church governance rather than directing international military campaigns.
Evolving Concepts of Penance: Without the crusader indulgences, the Latin Church's understanding of sin and penance would have evolved differently. The concept of remission of sins through military action would not have become institutionalized, potentially leading to a more contemplative rather than action-oriented approach to spiritual redemption.

Jerusalem and the Holy Land

The Holy Land would have continued under Fatimid and later Seljuk governance, with significant implications for both locals and pilgrims:

Pilgrim Access: Christian pilgrimage to Jerusalem would have continued under Muslim rule. Historically, before the First Crusade, such pilgrimages were generally permitted with the payment of appropriate fees. This practice would likely have continued, though fluctuating with local political conditions.
Fatimid-Seljuk Dynamics: Without external crusader intervention, the struggle between the Fatimid Caliphate and Seljuk Turks for control of the Levant would have continued on its own terms. By around 1100, the region would have likely stabilized under Seljuk influence, though with significant local autonomy.
Local Christian Communities: Eastern Christian communities in the Holy Land would have remained integrated within the predominantly Muslim society, maintaining their distinctive traditions without the layer of Latin Christian institutions that was imposed during the crusader period.

Economic Patterns in the Mediterranean

The economic trajectory of the Mediterranean basin would have differed significantly:

Italian City-States: Venice, Genoa, and Pisa benefited enormously from crusader transportation contracts and subsequent trading privileges in crusader states. Without these opportunities, their commercial expansion would have been more gradual and likely more focused on direct trade agreements with Byzantine and Muslim authorities.
Trade Routes: The heavy militarization of eastern Mediterranean sea lanes would never have occurred. Trade would have continued along established patterns, with gradual evolution rather than the disruptions and new opportunities created by crusader states.
Banking Development: Financial innovations spurred by the need to fund distant crusader expeditions would have emerged more slowly. The military orders that became important financial institutions in our timeline would never have been founded.

Military Developments

The absence of crusades would have altered the trajectory of European military culture:

Military Orders: The distinctive crusader military orders—the Knights Templar, Knights Hospitaller, and Teutonic Knights—would never have formed. These institutions played significant roles in banking, healthcare, and territorial expansion in our timeline.
Castle Architecture: The impressive synthesis of Western and Eastern military architecture that occurred during the crusader period would have developed differently, with more gradual cross-cultural exchange rather than the accelerated innovation driven by the crusader states' defensive needs.
Martial Culture: The glorification of warfare as potentially spiritually meritorious would not have become embedded in European chivalric culture to the same degree, potentially leading to different expressions of aristocratic values.

By the mid-12th century, this alternate world would feature a somewhat stronger Byzantine Empire, continued Muslim governance in the Holy Land with accommodation for pilgrims, a papacy focused more on internal church reform than external conquests, and more gradual economic development in the Mediterranean basin—all significant departures from our historical trajectory.

Long-term Impact

The Fate of the Byzantine Empire

Without the crusades, the Byzantine Empire's historical trajectory would have been dramatically altered:

Avoiding the Fourth Crusade: The catastrophic sack of Constantinople in 1204 by the Fourth Crusade—which historian Steven Runciman called "the greatest crime in history"—would never have occurred. This single event, more than any other, undermined Byzantine power and resilience. Without it, the empire would have retained its capital city and institutional continuity.
Gradual Contraction vs. Sudden Collapse: Rather than suffering a severe rupture in the 13th century followed by a diminished existence until 1453, the Byzantine Empire would likely have experienced a more gradual contraction. By the 15th century, it might have resembled a Greek state centered on Constantinople and parts of Anatolia and the Balkans—smaller than its medieval height but more stable than its historical counterpart.
Different Ottoman Encounters: The Ottoman expansion would still have occurred, as it was driven by factors independent of the crusades. However, they would have encountered a different Byzantine state—one that hadn't been weakened by Latin occupation and subsequent civil wars. This might have resulted in a longer process of Ottoman expansion, possibly with more extensive cultural synthesis rather than conquest.
Cultural Continuity: The preservation of Byzantine scholarly and artistic traditions would have been more organic, without the disruption caused by the Latin Empire period (1204-1261). This could have resulted in greater preservation of ancient texts and artistic techniques.

Development of European Identity

The absence of the crusading movement would have profoundly altered how European identity formed:

Religious Unification: Without the crusades as a unifying project, Western Christendom would have remained more regionally focused. The concept of "Europe" as a cultural entity might have developed later and along different conceptual lines.
East-West Christian Relations: The crusades significantly worsened relations between the Latin and Orthodox churches, culminating in the Great Schism. Without this antagonism, reconciliation between Eastern and Western Christianity might have been more achievable, potentially preventing or mitigating the formal split.
Secular Power Development: European monarchies like France and England consolidated power partly through crusade participation. Without this avenue, royal authority might have developed along more purely administrative and legal lines rather than through association with religious warfare.
Northern European Focus: Without Mediterranean crusader states drawing attention and resources southward, European expansion might have focused earlier and more intensely on Northern and Eastern Europe, potentially accelerating German eastward expansion and Scandinavian state consolidation.

Islamic World Development

The absence of crusader invasions would have allowed Islamic polities to develop along significantly different lines:

Continued Fragmentation and Reconfiguration: The Islamic world was already undergoing significant political fragmentation before the crusades. Without external pressure, this process would have continued, with various Turkish, Arab, Kurdish, and Persian polities competing and collaborating in complex patterns.
Intellectual and Scientific Flourishing: The 12th-15th centuries might have seen continued intellectual development in the Islamic world without the disruption of crusader invasions. The great centers of learning in Cairo, Damascus, and Baghdad would have evolved without the militarization necessitated by crusader threats.
Different Reform Movements: Without the crusader experience, Islamic religious and political reform movements would have taken different forms. The concept of jihad as defensive warfare might not have been reinforced to the same degree, potentially leading to different theological emphases in Islamic development.
Trade Network Continuity: The eastern Mediterranean and Middle Eastern trade networks would have maintained greater continuity, potentially preserving the region's economic centrality in world trade for a longer period before the eventual rise of Atlantic trade routes.

Religious Development

The trajectory of both Christianity and Islam would have differed significantly:

Christian Militarism: Without the crusades establishing the precedent of "holy war" in Western Christianity, Christian military ethics might have developed along more restrained lines. Later colonial expansion might have had different religious justifications or perhaps relied more exclusively on secular rationales.
Jewish Communities: European Jewish communities suffered terribly during the crusades, with massacres occurring as crusader armies mobilized. Without these traumatic events, Jewish-Christian relations in medieval Europe, while still problematic, might not have deteriorated as severely as they did historically.
Islamic-Christian Dialogue: Without the crusades establishing a paradigm of existential conflict, intellectual and theological exchange between Christianity and Islam might have continued along the more scholarly lines that characterized earlier periods, potentially fostering greater mutual understanding.
Religious Orders: Without military orders, the development of Western religious communities would have followed different paths, perhaps emphasizing contemplative, scholarly, or charitable activities rather than the unusual combination of monasticism and warfare that characterized the Templars and Hospitallers.

Economic and Technological Evolution

The absence of crusades would have altered economic and technological development paths:

Mediterranean Trade: Without crusader states creating European outposts in the Levant, economic integration between Europe and the Middle East would have followed a more gradual, trade-based trajectory rather than being accelerated by political conquest.
Banking and Finance: Financial instruments developed to fund crusades (like early banking systems) would have evolved more slowly and in response to different pressures, potentially delaying some aspects of European financial sophistication.
Material Culture Exchange: The significant transfer of technologies, architectural styles, foods, and luxury goods that occurred during the crusader period would have happened more gradually through normal trade channels rather than through the sudden immersion of Europeans in Middle Eastern contexts.
Maritime Technology: The shipping innovations driven by the need to transport large crusader armies might have developed more slowly, potentially delaying European maritime dominance by decades.

By the Present Day (2025)

The cumulative effects of a world without crusades would have created a substantially different modern global landscape:

Religious Geography: The religious map of the Middle East and Eastern Europe would likely show greater diversity. Eastern Christian communities might remain more numerous in the Levant, while Islam might have different distribution patterns in the Balkans and Eastern Europe.
European Colonial Narratives: European colonial powers often drew on crusader narratives and imagery to justify later imperialism. Without this precedent, colonial ideologies might have developed with different legitimizing concepts, potentially altering how colonialism unfolded.
Modern Middle Eastern Politics: The crusades are frequently invoked in modern Middle Eastern political discourse as a symbol of Western aggression. Without this historical reference point, contemporary political rhetoric and identity formation in the region would draw on different historical narratives.
Religious Extremism: Both Christian and Islamic extremist movements have used the crusades as historical touchstones. The absence of this historical period would deprive modern extremists of powerful symbolic references, potentially altering how religious militancy expresses itself.
Cultural Perception: The pervasive "clash of civilizations" narrative that often characterizes Western-Middle Eastern relations draws heavily on crusader imagery and history. Without this historical backdrop, intercultural perceptions might be constructed around different historical experiences, potentially allowing for less antagonistic frameworks.

The world of 2025 in this alternate timeline would not be unrecognizable, as many historical forces driving modern development would still have operated. However, the absence of the crusades would have removed a formative historical experience that profoundly shaped Western European expansion, Middle Eastern political development, and relations between Christianity and Islam—likely creating a world with different patterns of religious distribution, altered cultural attitudes, and potentially more nuanced intercultural relations.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Thomas Asbridge, Professor of Medieval History at Queen Mary University of London, offers this perspective: "The absence of the crusades would have fundamentally altered the development trajectory of medieval Europe. Without the massive mobilization of resources for distant campaigns, Western European societies might have turned inward during the 12th and 13th centuries, potentially accelerating the formation of centralized monarchies while delaying Mediterranean commercial expansion. The papacy, deprived of its role directing international religious warfare, might have evolved along more purely spiritual lines or focused more intensely on controlling heretical movements within Europe itself. Perhaps most significantly, the entire conceptual framework of 'Christendom united against external enemies' might never have crystallized in the European imagination, leading to a more regionally fragmented religious and cultural identity."

Dr. Carole Hillenbrand, Professor Emerita of Islamic History at the University of Edinburgh, suggests: "Without the crusader states, the Islamic world's developmental trajectory would have differed substantially. The unifying response to external invasion under leaders like Nur al-Din and Saladin significantly shaped subsequent Islamic political thought. Without this catalyst, political fragmentation would likely have continued, with various Turkish, Arab, and Persian dynasties competing for dominance. The concept of jihad would still have existed, but its emphasis and application might have evolved differently without the crucible of crusader confrontation. Local Christian and Jewish communities in the Middle East would have continued their long-standing pattern of coexistence with Muslim rulers, albeit as subordinate protected communities. The intellectual achievements of the medieval Islamic world might have received greater continuity and development without the disruption of warfare with European invaders."

Dr. Jonathan Phillips, Professor of Crusading History at Royal Holloway, University of London, provides this assessment: "The Mediterranean world without crusades would have featured more gradual cross-cultural exchange rather than the accelerated but antagonistic interactions that characterized the historical crusader period. Byzantine-Islamic-Latin relations would have continued through diplomatic and commercial channels, likely producing a different synthesis of technologies, ideas, and artistic forms. Military developments would have followed different paths—the distinctive crusader castle architecture might never have emerged, while military orders with their unique combination of monastic and martial values would not have appeared on the historical stage. Perhaps most consequentially for later history, the powerful symbolic legacy of the crusades—which has been repeatedly invoked to frame relations between Christianity and Islam, and between Western and Middle Eastern societies—would be absent from our cultural memory, requiring entirely different narratives to understand intercultural encounters."