What If The Goiânia Accident Never Occurred?

The Actual History

In September 1987, one of the most significant radiological accidents in history unfolded in the city of Goiânia, Brazil. The disaster began when a private radiotherapy institute, the Instituto Goiano de Radioterapia (IGR), relocated to new premises, abandoning their old facility. Left behind in the vacant building was a teletherapy unit containing a highly radioactive cesium-137 source, with an activity level of approximately 74 terabecquerels (2,000 curies).

On September 13, 1987, two scavengers, Roberto dos Santos Alves and Wagner Mota Pereira, entered the abandoned site and removed the teletherapy head assembly, believing the valuable-looking metal could be sold as scrap. They took the assembly to Alves's home, where they began to dismantle it. During this process, they punctured the capsule containing the cesium-137 source, which was in the form of highly soluble cesium chloride salt.

Unaware of the danger, the men were immediately exposed to high doses of radiation, experiencing radiation sickness symptoms including vomiting and diarrhea within hours. Still not comprehending the hazard, they sold the materials to a local scrapyard owned by Devair Ferreira.

Fascinated by the glowing blue substance, Ferreira brought the radioactive material into his home. Over the following days, family members and friends were invited to view the mysterious glowing powder. Some even applied it to their skin like glitter or makeup. Ferreira's six-year-old niece, Leide das Neves Ferreira, was particularly fascinated and handled the substance while eating, resulting in significant internal contamination.

By September 28, several people had fallen seriously ill with similar symptoms. Eventually, one of Ferreira's wife's relatives connected the illnesses to the mysterious substance and took a sample to a physicist, who immediately identified it as radioactive material. Brazilian authorities were alerted, and a massive emergency response ensued.

The consequences were severe: four people died within a month, including Leide das Neves Ferreira; 20 others experienced serious radiation sickness requiring hospitalization; and 249 people were found to have significant levels of radioactive contamination. The cleanup operation was extensive, involving the demolition of numerous homes and buildings and the removal of topsoil from large areas. Approximately 112,000 people were monitored for radiation exposure.

The Goiânia accident was classified as a Level 5 event on the International Nuclear Event Scale, making it one of the worst radiological incidents in history outside of nuclear reactor accidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima. The disaster highlighted critical issues in the management of radioactive sources, particularly in developing countries, and led to significant changes in international protocols regarding radiation safety and the security of radioactive materials.

In the decades following, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) strengthened its recommendations for radioactive source security, and Brazil implemented stricter regulations. The incident remains a powerful case study in radiation safety training worldwide and stands as a tragic example of what can happen when radioactive materials fall into unprepared hands.

The Point of Divergence

What if the Goiânia radiological accident never occurred? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where the dangerous cesium-137 source never fell into civilian hands, preventing one of the worst radiological disasters in history outside of nuclear power plant accidents.

Several plausible mechanisms could have prevented this tragedy:

First, the Instituto Goiano de Radioterapia (IGR) might have properly decommissioned their radiotherapy equipment before abandoning their old facility. In our timeline, the clinic's physicists had warned about the dangers of the abandoned cesium source, but legal disputes between the clinic's partners prevented proper action. In this alternate timeline, perhaps these disputes were resolved more amicably, allowing for the proper handling of the radioactive material during the clinic's relocation.

Alternatively, Brazilian regulatory authorities might have maintained more stringent oversight. The National Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN) could have conducted a timely inspection after being notified of the abandoned equipment, removing the source before scavengers discovered it. In this timeline, perhaps a more robust tracking system for radioactive materials existed, triggering automatic alerts when the regular safety checks stopped being reported.

A third possibility involves the security of the abandoned clinic itself. If the building had remained securely locked, or if security guards had continued patrolling the premises despite its abandoned status, the scavengers might never have gained access to the teletherapy unit. Perhaps the property owner, concerned about liability, maintained minimal security even after the clinic vacated.

Finally, it's possible that in this alternate timeline, the scavengers did break in but recognized warning symbols on the equipment. Better public education about radiation hazards might have made them cautious enough to leave the equipment intact, even if they still attempted to steal other metal components.

Whatever the specific mechanism, in this alternate timeline, the cesium-137 source remained secure until properly decommissioned, avoiding the catastrophic chain of events that exposed hundreds of people to dangerous levels of radiation and forever changed both Goiânia and international approaches to radiation safety.

Immediate Aftermath

Local Impact on Goiânia

In the absence of the radiological disaster, Goiânia would have continued its development as a growing Brazilian city without the stigma that became attached to it in our timeline. The immediate economic and social impacts would have been significant:

No Contamination Zone: Without the accident, the city would not have seen the cordoning off of significant areas or the demolition of multiple homes and buildings that occurred during decontamination efforts. The neighborhoods affected in our timeline—especially the Aeroporto district where the scrapyard was located—would have continued normal development.
Tourism and Economy: Goiânia's economy would have avoided the immediate downturn that resulted from the disaster. In our timeline, tourism plummeted as the city became synonymous with radiation contamination. Local products, particularly agricultural goods, faced rejection in markets across Brazil despite being safe, as consumers feared contamination. In this alternate timeline, Goiânia's economy would have continued growing steadily through the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Public Health Resources: The significant healthcare resources that were diverted to treating radiation victims and monitoring potentially exposed individuals—approximately 112,000 people in our timeline—would instead have remained available for dealing with Brazil's other pressing health challenges of the period, such as infectious diseases and maternal care.

Brazilian Regulatory Framework

Without the catalyzing disaster in Goiânia, Brazil's approach to radiation safety would have evolved differently:

Delayed Regulatory Reform: The comprehensive review and strengthening of Brazil's nuclear and radiological safety regulations that occurred after the accident would likely have been delayed or taken a different form. The National Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN), which underwent significant reforms and received increased funding after the disaster, might have continued with less robust oversight of medical radiation sources.
Medical Equipment Oversight: The tracking system for radioactive materials used in medical equipment that Brazil implemented after the accident would likely have developed more slowly. The strict protocols for decommissioning radiotherapy equipment might not have been established until much later, potentially leaving other dangerous sources vulnerable.
Academic and Training Programs: The specialized radiation safety training programs that were developed and expanded following the accident would have evolved at a more modest pace. Brazilian universities might not have emphasized radiation safety to the same degree in medical physics and related programs.

International Response

The absence of the Goiânia accident would have altered international approaches to radiation safety in several key ways:

IAEA Protocols: The International Atomic Energy Agency used the Goiânia accident as a powerful case study to advocate for stronger international standards for radiation source security. Without this concrete example, the IAEA's push for more robust international frameworks might have lacked urgency and compelling evidence.
Code of Conduct Development: The IAEA's "Code of Conduct on the Safety and Security of Radioactive Sources," which was significantly influenced by lessons from Goiânia, might have taken longer to develop or contained less stringent provisions, particularly regarding orphaned sources (radioactive materials no longer under proper control).
Developing Nations Focus: The international community's attention to radiation safety issues in developing nations specifically would likely have been less pronounced. The Goiânia accident highlighted the particular challenges faced by countries with emerging nuclear and radiological programs but limited regulatory infrastructure.

Public Awareness and Perception

The absence of the Goiânia incident would have affected public understanding of radiation risks in Brazil and beyond:

Reduced Public Education: The extensive public education campaigns about radiation hazards that followed the Goiânia accident would not have occurred, leaving the general Brazilian public less informed about the dangers of unknown radioactive materials.
Media Coverage: Without the dramatic and tragic story of glowing blue material being spread through a community, international media coverage of radiation safety issues would have remained more technical and less accessible to general audiences, potentially resulting in less public pressure for safety measures.
Less Stigmatization of Radiation: While reducing public fear of radiation would have some benefits, it might also have led to less caution around legitimate radiation hazards. The vivid example of Goiânia served as a powerful warning that made abstract risks concrete for many people.

Long-term Impact

Evolution of Nuclear Medicine in Developing Nations

Without the sobering lessons of Goiânia, the trajectory of nuclear medicine in developing countries would have taken a different path:

Slower Safety Evolution: The accident served as a catalyst for improving safety standards in nuclear medicine facilities across the developing world. Without this impetus, safety protocols would likely have evolved more gradually, potentially resulting in other, smaller incidents throughout the 1990s and 2000s.
Equipment Lifecycle Management: In our timeline, the Goiânia accident highlighted the dangers of improper decommissioning of medical equipment containing radioactive sources. This led to comprehensive lifecycle management approaches for such equipment. In this alternate timeline, the "cradle-to-grave" responsibility for radioactive sources might have taken decades longer to become standard practice.
Different Technology Adoption: Without the heightened concern about sealed radioactive sources following Goiânia, developing nations might have continued more extensive adoption of cesium-137 and cobalt-60 based radiotherapy units rather than transitioning to linear accelerators (which don't use radioactive materials) more quickly. This could have resulted in more widespread use of equipment that, while effective for cancer treatment, presents greater security and safety challenges.

Altered International Radiation Safety Framework

The absence of the Goiânia accident would have significantly affected how international organizations approach radiation safety:

Different IAEA Priorities: Without Goiânia highlighting the dangers of orphaned sources, the IAEA might have focused more exclusively on nuclear power plant safety throughout the 1990s, particularly following Chernobyl. The specific attention to medical, industrial, and other smaller sources of radiation might have received less attention until a different incident eventually highlighted these risks.
Delayed International Agreements: The "Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and on the Safety of Radioactive Waste Management," which came into force in 2001, was influenced by lessons from Goiânia. In this alternate timeline, such agreements might have contained fewer provisions for lower-activity sources or been delayed entirely.
Alternative Case Studies: Without Goiânia serving as the primary case study for radiological disasters, other incidents would have taken on greater prominence in radiation safety training. The 1984 Mohammedia (Morocco) incident involving an iridium-192 source might have become the standard teaching example, despite being smaller in scale and impact.

Transformed Public Health Approaches

The Goiânia accident fundamentally changed how public health systems prepare for and respond to radiological incidents:

Emergency Response Protocols: Many of the emergency protocols for radiation exposure developed after Goiânia would have evolved differently or more slowly. The specialized triage and treatment approaches for mass radiological contamination that are now standard in many countries might be less developed in this alternate timeline.
Psychological Impact Assessment: The Goiânia accident provided invaluable data on the psychological effects of radiation incidents on affected populations. Without this information, public health approaches might focus more exclusively on physical symptoms and less on the significant psychological trauma that follows such events.
Risk Communication Strategies: Methods for communicating with the public during radiation emergencies were significantly refined based on lessons from Goiânia. In this alternate timeline, risk communication about invisible threats like radiation might remain more technical and less effective at reaching vulnerable populations.

Global Security Implications

The security of radioactive materials worldwide would have developed along a different trajectory:

Terrorist Threat Awareness: The Goiânia accident demonstrated how dangerous even a single medical radiation source could be if mishandled. This lesson informed later approaches to preventing radiological terrorism. Without this clear example, awareness of the "dirty bomb" threat might have developed more slowly until the post-9/11 era.
International Tracking Systems: The global systems for tracking radioactive materials, particularly those that could pose security threats, were strengthened partly in response to Goiânia. In this alternate timeline, less robust systems might have remained in place longer, potentially creating more vulnerabilities.
Border Detection Capabilities: The investment in radiation detection equipment at borders and ports might have been delayed without the Goiânia incident highlighting how easily radioactive materials could cross boundaries undetected.

Impact on Brazil's National Identity and Development

The absence of the Goiânia accident would have altered Brazil's national development in subtle but important ways:

Scientific Investment: The accident spurred significant investment in Brazil's scientific infrastructure related to radiation safety, nuclear medicine, and emergency response. Without this catalyst, these fields might have received less attention and funding during Brazil's economic difficulties in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Environmental Movement: The Brazilian environmental movement, which gained significant momentum in the late 1980s and early 1990s, was partly influenced by the Goiânia accident's demonstration of invisible environmental threats. Without this concrete example, the movement might have remained more focused on deforestation and visible pollution.
National Reputation: Brazil's international reputation suffered temporarily after Goiânia, but its transparent handling of the disaster eventually earned it respect from the international community. In this alternate timeline, Brazil's approach to nuclear and radiation issues might have developed without this formative experience in crisis management.

Legacy Through 2025

By our present day of 2025, the absence of the Goiânia accident would have created a substantially different landscape for radiation safety globally:

Different Case Studies in Training: Medical physics, nuclear engineering, and emergency response training programs worldwide would lack what became one of their most powerful teaching tools. The vivid and tragic narrative of Goiânia has educated generations of professionals about the human cost of radiation safety failures.
Potentially More Incidents: Without the lessons of Goiânia driving improvements in tracking and securing radiation sources, it's likely that more radiological incidents would have occurred through the 1990s and 2000s, though perhaps none as severe individually.
Altered Medical Waste Protocols: The strict protocols now governing medical waste, particularly from radiation oncology departments, were significantly influenced by Goiânia. Without this catalyst, medical waste management might remain more variable across different countries and facilities.
Different Public Perception: Without Goiânia serving as a cornerstone example of radiation dangers outside of nuclear power plants, public perception of radiation risks might be more narrowly focused on nuclear energy and less aware of the presence of radioactive materials in medical, industrial, and other applications.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Maria Fernanda Oliveira, Professor of Medical Physics at the University of São Paulo, offers this perspective:

"The Goiânia accident, tragic as it was, transformed radiation safety practices in the developing world. Without this watershed moment, I believe we would have seen a slower, more piecemeal evolution of safety protocols. In Brazil specifically, our robust system of tracking medical radiation sources might be decades behind where it stands today. While other incidents would have eventually prompted improvements, the vivid nature of the Goiânia disaster—with its blue glowing cesium and the heartbreaking story of Leide das Neves—created an emotional impact that drove regulatory change at a pace that cold statistics never could. In an alternate timeline without this accident, I fear we might have seen several smaller incidents across Latin America before achieving the safety standards we now take for granted."

Dr. Jonathan Hayes, Former Director of Radiological Emergency Response at the World Health Organization, provides a different analysis:

"The absence of the Goiânia accident would have most profoundly affected how we prepare for radiological emergencies outside the context of nuclear power plants. This incident forced emergency response planners to confront the reality that significant radiation exposures could occur in ordinary urban environments without any connection to nuclear energy. Without Goiânia, I believe our emergency response frameworks would have remained overly focused on nuclear power plant scenarios until at least the early 2000s, when concerns about radiological terrorism drove a reassessment. The protocols we now have for decentralized radiological incidents—involving coordination between healthcare facilities, radiation specialists, and first responders—owe an enormous debt to the painful lessons of Goiânia. In its absence, we might still be catching up to where we are today."

Dr. Carlos Eduardo Almeida, Radiation Safety Consultant and former advisor to the Brazilian Nuclear Energy Commission, reflects:

"While the Goiânia accident accelerated radiation safety improvements, I don't believe its absence would have left us in perpetual danger. Alternative pathways to better radiation safety existed and were already developing before 1987. The IAEA was already working on improving radiation source control, albeit with less urgency. What would truly be different is public awareness—Goiânia made radiation dangers tangible to ordinary citizens in a way that technical discussions never could. Without this concrete example, the public pressure that often drives regulatory change would have been diminished. Perhaps most significantly, the absence of Goiânia would have left Brazil's scientific community without a defining challenge that ultimately strengthened our national expertise in radiation safety, emergency medicine, and environmental remediation."