What If The Gulf Cooperation Council Formed a Stronger Union?

The Actual History

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was established on May 25, 1981, in Abu Dhabi, bringing together six Arab states of the Persian Gulf: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The formation came in response to several regional challenges, most notably the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War in 1980, which heightened security concerns among the Gulf monarchies.

The founding charter outlined ambitious goals: to effect coordination, integration, and interconnection between member states in all fields; achieve unity; deepen and strengthen relations, links, and cooperation; and formulate similar regulations in economics, finance, trade, customs, tourism, legislation, and administration. Despite these lofty aspirations, the GCC has throughout its history functioned primarily as a loose alliance rather than a deeply integrated union.

Early successes included the establishment of a free trade area in 1983, allowing the free movement of goods without tariffs between member states. In 2003, the GCC established a customs union, and in 2008, they launched a common market that theoretically allowed citizens equal rights in property ownership, movement between states, employment, education, and healthcare across member countries.

However, the organization has faced significant challenges to deeper integration. The proposed GCC monetary union, initially planned for 2010, stalled when the UAE and Oman withdrew from the project in 2009 and 2006 respectively. The introduction of a single currency, the "Khaleeji," never materialized despite decades of discussion.

Security cooperation has been similarly limited. In 1984, the council established a joint military force called the "Peninsula Shield Force," but it has rarely been deployed and remains small in scale. During the 2011 Arab Spring protests in Bahrain, GCC forces (primarily from Saudi Arabia) intervened to support the Bahraini monarchy, representing one of the few instances of coordinated security action.

Political differences among member states have repeatedly undermined cohesion. The 2017-2021 Qatar diplomatic crisis represented the most serious rift, when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt severed diplomatic relations with Qatar and imposed a blockade, accusing it of supporting terrorism and maintaining close relations with Iran. This crisis clearly demonstrated the limits of GCC unity and the dominance of national interests over regional cooperation.

Proposals for deeper political integration have occasionally surfaced but gained little traction. In 2011, Saudi King Abdullah proposed transforming the GCC into a "union within a single entity," but this initiative faced resistance from smaller states concerned about Saudi dominance. Oman explicitly rejected the proposal in 2013, stating it would withdraw from the GCC if a union formed.

By 2025, the GCC remains primarily a forum for coordination rather than a significant supranational organization. While economic integration has progressed in some areas, political and military integration remains minimal. The organization continues to be hampered by sovereignty concerns, disparate political interests, external alliances, and the overwhelming influence of Saudi Arabia relative to its smaller neighbors.

The Point of Divergence

What if the Gulf Cooperation Council had evolved into a more cohesive and powerful union? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where the GCC transcended its limited framework to develop into a deeply integrated political and economic bloc resembling the early European Union in scope and ambition.

The point of divergence occurs in December 2011, during the GCC's annual summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In our timeline, Saudi King Abdullah proposed transforming the council into a union, but the proposal gained little traction. In this alternate timeline, several factors converge to create a more favorable environment for this transformative proposal:

First, the Arab Spring created a significantly greater sense of existential threat among the Gulf monarchies. In this alternate timeline, the uprisings in neighboring countries were more sustained and threatened to spill more directly into the Gulf states, convincing leaders that their long-term survival depended on deeper cooperation.

Second, King Abdullah's proposal was more carefully crafted to address the concerns of smaller states. Rather than a vague call for unity potentially dominated by Saudi Arabia, the proposal included specific power-sharing mechanisms, weighted voting procedures, and guarantees for smaller states that made the union more palatable.

Third, Oman's Sultan Qaboos, who in our timeline opposed the union concept, could have taken a different position due to heightened concerns about Iran's regional influence and succession uncertainty within Oman itself. His crucial support would have removed a significant obstacle.

Fourth, external pressures might have played a role. In this alternate timeline, the United States more actively encouraged GCC integration as part of its strategy to create a stronger counterbalance to Iran while reducing American military commitments in the region.

The convergence of these factors leads to the "Riyadh Declaration" of December 2011, which commits the six GCC states to a five-year transition toward a Gulf Union with shared sovereignty in key areas. This declaration outlines a clear roadmap with specific integration milestones, establishment of union-level institutions, and mechanisms to resolve the sovereignty concerns that hampered integration in our timeline.

This pivotal moment represents a fundamental reorientation of Gulf politics away from the loose cooperation that characterized the GCC's first thirty years toward a more ambitious vision of regional integration and collective action.

Immediate Aftermath

Institutional Development (2012-2014)

The first years following the Riyadh Declaration saw rapid institutional development as the framework for the new Gulf Union took shape. The GCC headquarters in Riyadh expanded considerably to house the newly established bodies:

The Gulf Union Council replaced the Supreme Council as the highest authority, comprising heads of member states but introducing a qualified majority voting system for specific policy areas rather than requiring unanimity for all decisions. This subtle but significant change allowed the organization to overcome the paralysis that often affected the GCC when member states disagreed.

A considerably strengthened Secretariat emerged with expanded powers and departments covering economic affairs, defense cooperation, foreign policy coordination, and social integration. Its staff grew from a few hundred in 2011 to over two thousand by 2014, drawing qualified professionals from across member states.

Most significantly, the Gulf Parliament was established in 2013, initially as a consultative body with appointed representatives allocated proportionally by population but with checks to prevent Saudi dominance. While lacking full legislative authority, the Parliament's establishment represented an unprecedented development in regional governance.

Economic Integration Accelerates (2012-2015)

Economic integration advanced more rapidly than in our timeline:

The GCC Customs Union, which had existed on paper since 2003 but faced implementation challenges, was fully operationalized by 2013, eliminating internal customs procedures and establishing a common external tariff.

The Gulf Central Bank, headquartered in Abu Dhabi as a concession to the UAE, was established in 2014 to coordinate monetary policy. While full currency union remained on the horizon, the bank began harmonizing banking regulations and developing the infrastructure for eventual currency integration.

The creation of the Gulf Investment Authority in 2013 marked a revolutionary step, pooling a small but significant percentage of member states' sovereign wealth assets (approximately $100 billion initially) for joint strategic investments. This institution implemented collective investment strategies focusing on food security, technology acquisition, and economic diversification.

Energy policy coordination intensified through a new Gulf Energy Coordination Board, which began harmonizing production targets and strategic planning for the post-oil era, creating more coherent positions within OPEC and greater collective leverage in global energy markets.

Foreign Policy and Security Coordination (2013-2016)

The security dimension saw substantial developments:

The Peninsula Shield Force expanded from its original limited size to a standing force of approximately 30,000 troops by 2015, with integrated command structures and regular joint exercises. While still dominated by Saudi personnel, units from all member states participated.

A Gulf Defense Council was established in 2013, creating mechanisms for defense procurement coordination, interoperability standards, and joint threat assessment. This reduced duplication in military purchases and gradually increased the standardization of equipment across member militaries.

Foreign policy coordination intensified through regular meetings of foreign ministers and the establishment of joint diplomatic missions in select countries, beginning with shared consular services and gradually expanding to political representation in non-critical diplomatic posts.

Social Dimensions and Identity Formation (2012-2016)

The creation of the Gulf Union Citizenship supplement (not replacement) to national citizenship expanded freedom of movement, residence, and employment rights that had been unevenly implemented under the GCC common market. Gulf citizens began receiving special Gulf Union passports alongside their national passports for international travel in 2015.

Educational integration accelerated with the establishment of the Gulf Educational Harmonization Council, which began standardizing curricula, qualifications, and created exchange programs among Gulf universities. "Gulf Studies" courses were introduced across educational systems to foster a sense of shared identity.

A Gulf-wide media network launched in 2014, broadcasting in Arabic and English with programming specifically designed to promote a shared Gulf identity while acknowledging the distinct cultures and traditions of member states.

Challenges and Tensions

This period wasn't without significant tensions. Kuwait's parliamentary system created domestic resistance to aspects of integration that could undermine its relatively more democratic institutions. Prolonged debates in the Kuwaiti parliament slowed the adoption of several Union agreements.

Border disputes, particularly between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, required intensive negotiation and the creation of special joint administration zones to prevent these historical tensions from derailing the integration process.

The question of relations with Iran created ongoing strategic debates, with Oman and Qatar generally favoring more diplomatic engagement while Saudi Arabia and Bahrain pushed for a more confrontational stance. These differences required careful management within the new institutional framework.

By 2016, the Gulf Union had emerged as a significantly more cohesive entity than the GCC of our timeline, with functioning institutions, deepening economic integration, and nascent political coordination that would set the stage for more profound transformations in the following decade.

Long-term Impact

Economic Transformation (2016-2025)

A New Economic Model

By 2025, the Gulf Union emerged as the world's sixth-largest economy as a bloc, with economic integration delivering substantial benefits:

The long-delayed currency union finally materialized in 2019 with the introduction of the Khaleeji, creating the world's second-largest currency zone by foreign exchange reserves. While initially pegged to the dollar to ensure stability, by 2023 the Gulf Monetary Council had transitioned to a managed float based on a basket of currencies, reducing the region's exclusive dependence on dollar hegemony.

The Gulf Common Market evolved beyond basic freedom of movement to include substantial regulatory harmonization. The Gulf Standards Authority established uniform regulations for industries ranging from pharmaceuticals to financial services, creating a more attractive market for international investors while reducing compliance costs for businesses operating across member states.

Economic diversification strategies, previously pursued haphazardly by individual states, became more coordinated and effective. The Gulf Innovation Fund, established in 2018 with $50 billion in capital, strategically invested in technology companies, bringing their operations to the region and building innovation capacity. By 2025, the Gulf had established itself as a significant technology hub between East and West.

Energy Transformation

The most profound economic changes came in energy policy:

The Gulf Energy Transition Authority, established in 2017, coordinated the region's approach to renewable energy and climate change. Massive joint investments in solar energy transformed the Gulf Union into a global leader in solar technology and a significant exporter of renewable energy by the mid-2020s.

Oil and gas production became subject to more strategic regional planning rather than competition among member states. The Gulf Petroleum Coordination Council managed production quotas and long-term investment decisions, allowing for more stable energy markets and eliminating internal competition that had previously undermined OPEC discipline.

By 2025, the Gulf Union became the first hydrocarbon-exporting region to embrace a comprehensive transition strategy, positioning itself to remain an energy power even as global demand for oil began its long-term decline. Joint investments in hydrogen technology, carbon capture, and synthetic fuels allowed the bloc to leverage its existing energy infrastructure for future energy markets.

Geopolitical Realignment (2016-2025)

Regional Power Dynamics

The Gulf Union's emergence as a more cohesive bloc fundamentally altered Middle Eastern geopolitics:

Relations with Iran took a structured approach through the Gulf-Iran Dialogue Forum established in 2018. While tensions remained, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear program and regional proxies, the institutionalized dialogue prevented escalation to the brink of open conflict that characterized our timeline's 2019-2020 period.

The 2017 Qatar crisis, which in our timeline led to a four-year blockade, was avoided entirely in this alternate timeline. The Gulf Union's institutional mechanisms contained the same tensions within formal dispute resolution processes, preventing the rupture that damaged GCC credibility in our world.

The Union developed a more coherent approach to regional conflicts. In Yemen, rather than the Saudi-led intervention of our timeline, a more coordinated Gulf Union peacekeeping force deployed in 2018 alongside increased humanitarian assistance, leading to a negotiated settlement by 2021 that proved more sustainable than our timeline's ongoing conflict.

Global Positioning

On the global stage, the Gulf Union gained significantly enhanced influence:

The Union negotiated as a bloc in international forums, gaining a permanent observer status at G20 meetings by 2020 and speaking with a unified voice at the United Nations on key issues affecting the region.

Relations with global powers became more balanced. While maintaining strong security ties with the United States, the Gulf Union developed a comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with China in 2021 and an Advanced Economic Cooperation Framework with the European Union in 2022.

The Gulf Union's substantial financial reserves, now partially pooled and strategically deployed, gave it unprecedented leverage in international institutions. Gulf Union nationals secured leadership positions at the IMF, World Bank, and other international bodies, increasing the region's influence in global governance.

Internal Political Evolution (2017-2025)

While the Gulf Union did not transform member states into Western-style democracies, gradual political evolution did occur:

The Gulf Parliament evolved from an appointed consultative body to a partially elected legislature by 2022, with half its members directly elected by Gulf citizens. While its powers remained limited compared to national governments, it gained genuine authority over certain Union-level decisions and budgetary matters.

A Gulf Charter of Rights was adopted in 2019, establishing minimum standards for legal protections across the Union. While less extensive than Western human rights frameworks, it created a baseline of legal protections and a Gulf Court of Justice with limited jurisdiction to hear cases regarding Union law.

Political participation expanded unevenly across member states. Kuwait maintained its parliamentary system, while Saudi Arabia expanded its Shura Council's powers and introduced municipal elections. The UAE and Qatar focused on technocratic governance improvements rather than electoral reforms, creating a diverse but gradually liberalizing political landscape within the Union framework.

Sociocultural Integration and Identity (2016-2025)

Perhaps the most profound long-term change was the emergence of a genuine Gulf identity alongside national identities:

The Gulf Union Education System standardized curricula emphasizing shared historical and cultural heritage. By 2025, a generation of students had graduated having studied under this system, with significantly greater knowledge of other Gulf states and a stronger sense of shared identity.

Cultural integration advanced through Union-sponsored initiatives like the annual Gulf Cultural Festival, rotating between capitals, and the establishment of the Gulf Heritage Foundation to preserve and promote the region's shared traditions. The Gulf Film Fund supported cinema that explored pan-Gulf themes, creating a distinctive regional cultural voice.

Increased internal mobility changed demographic patterns. By 2025, approximately 15% of Gulf nationals lived in a member state other than their country of citizenship, creating more diverse societies and strengthening cross-border ties through marriage, business partnerships, and educational exchanges.

The 2025 State of the Union

By 2025, the Gulf Union had developed into a political and economic entity fundamentally different from the limited cooperation forum that was the GCC in our timeline. While not matching the European Union's level of integration, it had established a functioning customs and monetary union, significant political coordination mechanisms, and nascent shared citizenship.

The Union faced ongoing challenges. Tensions between larger and smaller members required constant balancing, individual rulers remained reluctant to cede core sovereignty in areas like defense and foreign policy, and the democratic deficit in Union institutions created legitimacy challenges among younger, more educated populations.

Nevertheless, the Gulf Union of 2025 in this alternate timeline stands as a rare success story of regional integration in the Middle East—a wealthy, increasingly cohesive bloc with growing global influence and greater resilience against both internal and external threats than the fragmented Gulf states of our timeline.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Fellow for the Middle East at Rice University's Baker Institute, offers this perspective: "The transformation of the GCC into a more integrated Gulf Union would represent the most significant structural change in Middle Eastern geopolitics since the 2003 Iraq War. The concentrated wealth and strategic significance of a truly unified Gulf bloc would create a gravitational pull that would reshape regional dynamics beyond recognition. However, the historical pattern of Gulf politics suggests that even in an alternate timeline, integration would likely remain uneven and characterized by ongoing tension between union-level institutions and jealously guarded national sovereignty."

Dr. Anoushiravan Ehteshami, Professor of International Relations at Durham University, notes: "The fundamental obstacle to GCC integration in our timeline wasn't technical or economic, but political—specifically the disproportionate power of Saudi Arabia relative to its neighbors. For a Gulf Union to succeed where the GCC failed would require an institutional architecture sophisticated enough to address these power asymmetries. The most plausible scenario would involve Saudi Arabia accepting meaningful constraints on its dominance in exchange for the greater collective leverage a union would provide against Iran and other regional competitors. This would represent a revolutionary change in Saudi strategic thinking."

Dr. Fatima Al-Shamsi, Professor of Economics at the United Arab Emirates University, provides this economic assessment: "A more integrated Gulf monetary and fiscal policy could have transformed the region's development trajectory by enabling genuinely strategic deployment of the region's vast capital resources. The duplicate investments, competing financial centers, and sometimes contradictory economic diversification strategies we've seen in our timeline represent a significant opportunity cost. A functioning Gulf Union would not only optimize resource allocation but potentially create the world's most sophisticated sovereign wealth management system, capable of both ensuring long-term prosperity post-oil and projecting financial power globally in ways individual Gulf states cannot achieve separately."