What If The Lord of The Rings Was Never Written?

The Actual History

John Ronald Reuel Tolkien, born in South Africa in 1892 and raised in England, developed a lifelong fascination with languages, mythology, and ancient literature. After serving in World War I and surviving the Battle of the Somme, Tolkien pursued an academic career, becoming a professor of Anglo-Saxon at Oxford University. His scholarly expertise in Old and Middle English literature, particularly works like "Beowulf" and "Sir Gawain and the Green Knight," deeply influenced his creative writing.

Tolkien began creating his fictional world of Middle-earth as early as 1917, initially developing elaborate languages like Quenya and Sindarin (forms of Elvish). In the 1930s, while grading examination papers, Tolkien spontaneously wrote the sentence, "In a hole in the ground there lived a hobbit" on a blank page. This moment of inspiration led to the development of "The Hobbit," published in 1937 by Allen & Unwin. The children's novel was an unexpected success, prompting publishers to request a sequel.

What began as a straightforward follow-up evolved into something much more ambitious. Between 1937 and 1949, amid his academic duties and the disruptions of World War II, Tolkien laboriously crafted "The Lord of the Rings." The work expanded in scope and complexity, growing into a sweeping epic deeply connected to his already-developed mythological world of Middle-earth. During this period, Tolkien found encouragement and critical feedback through the "Inklings," an Oxford literary discussion group that included his close friend C.S. Lewis.

After multiple revisions and various publishing challenges, "The Lord of the Rings" was finally released in three volumes between 1954 and 1955: "The Fellowship of the Ring," "The Two Towers," and "The Return of the King." Initial critical reception was mixed, with some reviewers praising its imagination and depth while others dismissed it as juvenile escapism. However, the trilogy gradually developed a devoted following.

The work experienced a massive surge in popularity during the 1960s, particularly in American counterculture. The paperback editions published in 1965 became campus favorites, with the themes of fellowship, resistance against industrialization, and the corruption of power resonating with the era's youth. By the 1970s, "The Lord of the Rings" had become a cultural phenomenon, inspiring countless imitators and establishing many conventions of modern fantasy literature.

Following Tolkien's death in 1973, his son Christopher edited and published much of his father's unfinished work, including "The Silmarillion" (1977) and the twelve-volume "History of Middle-earth" series, further expanding the mythological backdrop of "The Lord of the Rings."

The cultural impact of Tolkien's masterpiece grew exponentially with Peter Jackson's film adaptations released between 2001 and 2003. These critically acclaimed and commercially successful films brought Middle-earth to life for new generations, winning 17 Academy Awards and grossing nearly $3 billion worldwide. The subsequent "Hobbit" trilogy (2012-2014) and Amazon's "The Rings of Power" series (2022-present) have further cemented Tolkien's world in popular consciousness.

Today, "The Lord of the Rings" is recognized as one of the most influential literary works of the 20th century. It has sold over 150 million copies in more than 60 languages, redefined an entire genre, inspired countless authors, filmmakers, game designers, and artists, and created a cultural legacy whose influence extends far beyond literature into virtually every aspect of popular culture.

The Point of Divergence

What if J.R.R. Tolkien never completed "The Lord of the Rings"? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where the monumental work that redefined fantasy literature and influenced countless creative fields was never finished or published.

Several plausible divergence points present themselves:

First, Tolkien's academic responsibilities at Oxford could have overwhelmed his creative pursuits. In our timeline, Tolkien struggled to balance his university duties with his writing, often working on his manuscripts late into the night. If his professional obligations had increased—perhaps through an administrative promotion or additional teaching responsibilities—he might have shelved his massive manuscript indefinitely.

Alternatively, health issues could have intervened. Tolkien suffered from various ailments throughout his life, including trench fever contracted during World War I that periodically recurred. A more severe health crisis between 1937 and 1949 could have rendered him unable to complete the enormous task of writing and revising his sprawling epic.

A third possibility involves the intervention of World War II. The war years were already challenging for Tolkien, with paper rationing and his concern for his sons who were serving in the military. If one of his sons had been killed in action, Tolkien might have abandoned his fantasy world in grief. Christopher Tolkien, in particular, was not only his father's son but his first reader and critic. His loss would have been both personally devastating and creatively crippling.

Perhaps the most likely divergence comes from Tolkien's perfectionism and tendency toward what he called his "niggling." In our timeline, Tolkien nearly abandoned "The Lord of the Rings" multiple times due to his dissatisfaction with elements of the story and his continuous revisions of the underlying mythology. His publisher, Stanley Unwin, and his friend C.S. Lewis provided crucial encouragement that kept him working. Without their persistent support—or if Tolkien had fallen into a deeper period of creative doubt—the manuscript might have remained forever unfinished in his desk drawer.

In this alternate timeline, we will explore a scenario where a combination of increased academic demands and a crisis of confidence in 1947-1948 led Tolkien to set aside his unfinished manuscript. Though he occasionally returned to it in subsequent years, he never completed the work to his satisfaction, and "The Lord of the Rings" remained unpublished during his lifetime—leaving an unfillable void in the literary landscape of the 20th century.

Immediate Aftermath

Publishing Industry Consequences

The immediate ripple effects of Tolkien's decision to abandon "The Lord of the Rings" would have first impacted his publisher, Allen & Unwin. In our timeline, this British publishing house benefited enormously from the eventual success of Tolkien's works, with "The Lord of the Rings" becoming one of their most profitable properties. Without this literary cornerstone:

Allen & Unwin would have continued as a respectable but less influential publishing house, lacking the financial windfall that Tolkien's works eventually provided.
The company might have focused more exclusively on academic texts rather than expanding its fantasy and fiction catalog, potentially changing its long-term business trajectory.
Rayner Unwin, who as a child had provided the crucial reader's report that led to "The Hobbit" being published and later championed "The Lord of the Rings" as an adult, might have developed his publishing career in entirely different directions.

In the broader publishing landscape, the absence of "The Lord of the Rings" would have left "The Hobbit" as Tolkien's standalone contribution to children's literature. While respected, it would have remained categorized as a children's book without the more mature sequel that elevated it retroactively.

Tolkien's Academic Career and Personal Life

For Tolkien himself, abandoning his magnum opus would have had profound personal consequences:

His academic career would likely have become his exclusive focus, potentially resulting in more scholarly publications on medieval literature and linguistics.
Without the distraction of his creative writing, Tolkien might have completed and published more academic works, perhaps cementing an even stronger reputation in philology and medieval studies.
Financially, the Tolkien family would have continued to live modestly on his professor's salary, without the later comfort provided by royalties from "The Lord of the Rings."
Tolkien's friendship with C.S. Lewis might have evolved differently. In our timeline, Lewis was a significant supporter of Tolkien's fiction writing, while Tolkien was initially skeptical of Lewis's "Chronicles of Narnia." Without this creative exchange, their relationship might have remained primarily academic.

The Inklings and Oxford Literary Circles

The Inklings, the informal literary discussion group that included Tolkien, Lewis, Charles Williams, and others, would have continued but with a different focus:

C.S. Lewis would still have emerged as a significant fantasy author with his "Chronicles of Narnia" (1950-1956), potentially becoming the group's primary creative voice rather than sharing that distinction with Tolkien.
The group's discussions might have centered more on Christian apologetics and academic matters rather than fantasy world-building.
Without Tolkien's deep mythology to inspire them, other members of the group might have pursued different creative directions or remained focused on scholarly work.

Fantasy Literature in the 1950s

The 1950s fantasy landscape would have developed along noticeably different lines:

"The Chronicles of Narnia" would have stood more prominently as the decade's defining fantasy work, with its explicitly Christian allegorical approach potentially becoming more influential in the genre.
The absence of "The Lord of the Rings" would have left a significant void in adult fantasy literature. Works like Mervyn Peake's "Gormenghast" trilogy (1946-1959) might have received greater recognition as the standard-bearers of literary fantasy.
Fantasy as a genre would have continued to be perceived primarily as children's literature for longer, lacking Tolkien's sophisticated adult epic that helped legitimize it for older readers.
T.H. White's "The Once and Future King" (compiled 1958) might have gained greater prominence as the definitive modern Arthurian retelling, without competition from Tolkien's alternative mythological approach.

Academic Reception and Literary Classification

The absence of "The Lord of the Rings" would have affected how fantasy literature was classified and studied:

The concept of "high fantasy" or "epic fantasy" as distinct subgenres might have emerged more slowly or taken different forms.
Academic attention to fantasy literature would have developed differently, potentially focusing more on the allegorical traditions exemplified by Lewis rather than the world-building and mythopoeic approach that Tolkien pioneered.
Literary critics might have continued to regard fantasy primarily through the lens of children's literature or as a subset of science fiction rather than as a distinct literary tradition worthy of serious study.

In the years immediately following the point of divergence, these changes would have seemed subtle. "The Hobbit" would remain a beloved children's book, Tolkien would be respected as a scholar, and fantasy literature would continue to exist in various forms. Only gradually would the true magnitude of the absence become apparent, as the cultural landscape of the 1960s and beyond evolved without one of its most significant influences.

Long-term Impact

The Evolution of Fantasy Literature Without Its Cornerstone

The absence of "The Lord of the Rings" would have fundamentally altered the trajectory of fantasy literature throughout the second half of the 20th century and beyond:

1960s: A Different Kind of Fantasy Renaissance

In our timeline, the 1960s saw "The Lord of the Rings" explode in popularity, particularly in American college campuses, where it became associated with counterculture movements. Without this cultural phenomenon:

Fantasy literature might have remained more fragmented, with no single work providing a unified template for the genre.
The "Ballantine Adult Fantasy Series," edited by Lin Carter (1969-1974), which reissued many classic fantasy works partly in response to the demand created by Tolkien's success, might never have been launched.
Authors like Ursula K. Le Guin, whose "Earthsea" series began in 1968, would still have created significant fantasy works, but might have developed their secondary worlds with less influence from Tolkien's comprehensive approach to worldbuilding.
Science fiction might have maintained greater prominence relative to fantasy, with authors like Frank Herbert ("Dune," 1965) and Arthur C. Clarke becoming even more dominant voices in speculative fiction.

1970s-1980s: The Missing Commercial Template

The 1970s and 1980s saw the emergence of commercial fantasy that heavily borrowed from Tolkien's template—epic quests, medieval-inspired settings, races like elves and dwarves, and Dark Lords as antagonists:

Terry Brooks's "The Sword of Shannara" (1977), often criticized for its similarities to "The Lord of the Rings," would never have existed in its familiar form.
The "Dungeons & Dragons" role-playing game (1974), which drew heavily from Tolkien's worldbuilding and creatures, would have developed very differently, perhaps with more influence from pulp sword-and-sorcery fiction, classical mythology, or the works of writers like Michael Moorcock.
Without the commercial proof that epic fantasy could sell, publishers might have been less willing to invest in lengthy fantasy series, potentially favoring standalone works or shorter series.
Authors like Robert Jordan ("The Wheel of Time"), David Eddings ("The Belgariad"), and Terry Goodkind ("The Sword of Truth") might never have found the commercial platform for their multi-volume epic fantasies, or would have written significantly different works.

Alternative Fantasy Traditions Gaining Prominence

With the Tolkienian model absent, other fantasy traditions might have gained greater prominence:

The "sword and sorcery" tradition of Robert E. Howard (Conan) and Fritz Leiber might have remained the dominant form of adult fantasy literature longer.
The "dying earth" works of Jack Vance and Gene Wolfe could have become more central to the fantasy canon.
Arthurian retellings and historical fantasy might have occupied a more central place in the genre.
Urban fantasy and magical realism might have emerged earlier as dominant modes of fantasy writing, without the shadow of epic secondary-world fantasy looming so large.

Impact on Popular Culture and Media

Tabletop Gaming and Role-Playing Games

The impact on gaming would have been profound:

Gary Gygax and Dave Arneson's "Dungeons & Dragons" would likely still have emerged, but with very different source material and influences. The game's iconic races (elves, dwarves, halflings), class structures, and quest formats were all heavily influenced by Tolkien.
Wargaming might have remained more historical in focus, without the fantasy elements that Tolkien's work helped popularize.
Games Workshop's "Warhammer" and "Warhammer 40,000" universes, which draw significantly from Tolkienian concepts (particularly their portrayal of elves, dwarves, and orcs), would have developed along entirely different lines.

Film and Television

The landscape of fantasy film and television would be unrecognizable:

Peter Jackson's landmark "Lord of the Rings" trilogy (2001-2003) obviously wouldn't exist, removing a defining moment in early 21st-century cinema.
Without the commercial and critical success of Jackson's films, studios might have remained hesitant to invest in big-budget fantasy adaptations.
Films like "Harry Potter," "Game of Thrones," and "The Witcher" might still have been produced, but without the groundwork laid by Jackson's successful adaptation of Tolkien, they might have received smaller budgets, less marketing support, or been adapted differently.
The visual language of fantasy film—how magical worlds, creatures, and epic battles are depicted—would have evolved from different source material, perhaps drawing more from Disney animations, Ray Harryhausen's effects work, or science fiction films.

Video Games

The video game industry would have developed along significantly different lines:

Fantasy role-playing games like "The Elder Scrolls," "Dragon Age," "World of Warcraft," and countless others draw heavily on Tolkienian tropes. Without this influence, these games might have:
- Relied more on mythological sources rather than secondary-world fantasy
- Drawn more inspiration from science fiction or historical settings
- Developed entirely different fantasy races and conventions
The now-standard progression mechanics of many RPGs, which echo the "hero's journey" structure popularized by Tolkien, might have evolved differently.

Literary and Academic Legacy

Academic Study of Fantasy

The academic legitimization of fantasy literature would have followed a different path:

Without Tolkien's example of a philologist and medieval scholar creating fantasy with deep linguistic and mythological roots, fantasy might have taken longer to be accepted as worthy of serious academic study.
The field of fantasy criticism would lack cornerstone texts like Tolkien's essay "On Fairy-Stories," potentially delaying the development of theoretical frameworks for understanding fantasy literature.
Institutions like the Mythopoeic Society (founded 1967), which were created largely to study Tolkien and similar authors, might never have formed.

The Nature of Fantasy Publishing Today

By 2025, the publishing landscape for fantasy would be dramatically different:

The standard publishing format for fantasy—lengthy series of doorstop novels—might never have become the industry norm without Tolkien's example.
Epic fantasy might exist as a niche subgenre rather than the commercially dominant form of fantasy literature.
Without the successful template of Tolkien adaptations, publishers might be less focused on acquiring fantasy properties with adaptation potential.
Fantasy literature might be more diverse in its inspirations, drawing from a wider range of cultural traditions rather than the predominantly Western medieval focus that Tolkien helped establish.

Cultural Impact Beyond Literature

The absence of "The Lord of the Rings" would have had ripple effects throughout culture:

Music inspired by Tolkien—from Led Zeppelin's references in "Ramble On" and "Misty Mountain Hop" to entire subgenres of folk and metal music—would never have emerged.
Environmental movements might have lacked Tolkien's powerful imagery contrasting pastoral landscapes with industrial devastation, imagery that resonated with early environmentalists.
Common phrases derived from Tolkien's work—"not all who wander are lost," "one ring to rule them all," etc.—would be absent from everyday language.
The concept of "fandom" as we know it might have developed differently, as Tolkien fans were among the first to organize conventions, create extensive reference works, and engage in activities now recognized as typical fan behaviors.

By 2025, we would inhabit a cultural landscape where fantasy remained a more disparate, less commercially dominant genre. Without Tolkien's unifying influence, fantasy might be more experimental and diverse, but also less mainstream and influential across other media forms. The absence of "The Lord of the Rings" would represent not just a missing book, but a missing cornerstone in the architecture of modern imagination.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Helen Peterson, Professor of Comparative Literature at Columbia University, offers this perspective: "The absence of 'The Lord of the Rings' would have created a fascinating butterfly effect throughout literary history. I believe fantasy literature would have developed as a more fragmented field, with distinct traditions operating in parallel rather than a dominant 'Tolkienian' mode setting the commercial and creative template. Science fiction might have maintained its intellectual prestige advantage over fantasy for much longer, and we might have seen fantasy developing more along the lines of magical realism or slipstream fiction. The big fantasy publishing boom of the 1980s and 1990s might never have happened without Tolkien demonstrating the commercial viability of secondary-world fantasy for adult readers. Most intriguingly, I think fantasy might be more culturally diverse today without Tolkien's medievalist, Eurocentric model becoming so dominant—authors might have drawn more readily from non-Western mythological traditions without feeling the need to conform to what became the standard 'epic fantasy' template."

Professor Richard Harrington, Media Studies scholar at the University of California, Berkeley, argues: "Without 'The Lord of the Rings' and particularly Peter Jackson's film adaptations, the entire media landscape of the 21st century would look radically different. Jackson's films proved that fantasy could be both critically respected and enormously profitable, essentially giving Hollywood permission to invest in other fantasy properties. Without that proof of concept, I doubt we'd have seen the same level of investment in franchises like 'Game of Thrones,' the Marvel Cinematic Universe, or even 'Harry Potter.' The visual effects industry would have developed differently without the revolutionary work done for the 'Lord of the Rings' trilogy pushing boundaries. Gaming—both tabletop and digital—would be almost unrecognizable, as Tolkien's worldbuilding approach has been foundational to how games construct their universes. In short, without Tolkien completing his masterpiece, geek culture might never have become mainstream culture, remaining a niche interest rather than the dominant commercial force it is today."

Dr. Marcus Wong, historian of publishing at Oxford University, provides a different angle: "We should consider the publishing industry implications of this alternate timeline. Allen & Unwin, Tolkien's publisher, might have remained a relatively small British publishing house rather than becoming an international force on the strength of Tolkien's works. The very concept of 'fantasy' as a publishing category might have emerged later and differently. Without Tolkien's example of building an internally consistent secondary world with its own languages, histories, and maps, fantasy might have continued to be published primarily as either children's literature or as a subset of science fiction well into the 1970s or 1980s. The explosion of 'Tolkien clones' in the 1970s and 1980s obviously wouldn't have occurred, meaning major publishing houses might have invested their resources in different genres entirely. By 2025, I believe the publishing landscape would feature far fewer doorstopper fantasy series and shared-world franchises, with more emphasis perhaps on standalone works or shorter series rooted in different traditions."