What If The Montreal Protocol Never Happened?

The Actual History

In the early 1970s, scientists began to understand that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) – synthetic chemicals widely used in refrigeration, air conditioning, aerosol propellants, and foam manufacturing – were damaging Earth's protective ozone layer. The ozone layer, a region of the stratosphere containing a high concentration of ozone (O₃), shields Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun.

The scientific breakthrough came in 1974 when chemists Mario Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland published their groundbreaking research in the journal Nature, demonstrating that CFCs could deplete stratospheric ozone. Their work showed that when CFCs reached the stratosphere, ultraviolet radiation would break them down, releasing chlorine atoms that could catalytically destroy ozone molecules – with each chlorine atom capable of destroying thousands of ozone molecules before being removed from the stratosphere.

Initial skepticism from industry and some governments gradually gave way to growing concern, especially after British Antarctic Survey scientists discovered a severe thinning of the ozone layer over Antarctica in 1985 – what became known as the "ozone hole." This dramatic physical evidence catalyzed international action. The same year, nations adopted the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer, a framework agreement that acknowledged the problem but contained no specific reduction targets or timelines.

The pivotal moment came on September 16, 1987, when 24 countries signed the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer in Montreal, Canada. This landmark treaty initially required a 50% reduction in CFC production and consumption by 1999. Critically, the Protocol included unique features that made it exceptionally effective:

Universal participation: Eventually achieving ratification by all 198 UN member states, making it the first UN treaty to achieve universal ratification
Principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities": Giving developing countries more time to phase out ozone-depleting substances
Multilateral Fund: Established in 1991 to assist developing countries with transition costs
Regular scientific and technological assessments: Enabling the Protocol to be strengthened through multiple amendments (London 1990, Copenhagen 1992, Vienna 1995, Montreal 1997, Beijing 1999, Kigali 2016)
Trade provisions: Restricting trade in controlled substances with non-parties

The Montreal Protocol's implementation led to rapid, substantial reductions in the production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances. Global CFC production fell from nearly 1.3 million tonnes in 1988 to approximately 12,000 tonnes by 2016 – a remarkable 99% reduction. Scientific monitoring confirmed that atmospheric concentrations of most ozone-depleting substances began to decline, and models indicate that the ozone layer is now on a path to recovery, with expectations for the Antarctic ozone hole to close permanently by the 2060s.

Beyond its environmental success, the Montreal Protocol prevented millions of cases of skin cancer, cataracts, and immune system damage. It also delivered significant climate benefits, as many ozone-depleting substances are also potent greenhouse gases. The Protocol has been credited with preventing greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to approximately 135 billion tonnes of CO₂ between 1990 and 2010.

The Montreal Protocol is widely regarded as the most successful international environmental agreement in history, demonstrating that nations can cooperate effectively to address global environmental challenges when presented with clear scientific evidence and practical solutions.

The Point of Divergence

What if the Montreal Protocol had never been signed in 1987? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where international efforts to regulate ozone-depleting substances failed during the critical negotiations in Montreal, leaving CFC production and use largely unchecked throughout the late 20th and early 21st centuries.

Several plausible scenarios could have derailed the Montreal Protocol negotiations:

Industry Opposition Prevails: In our timeline, chemical manufacturers initially resisted regulation but eventually supported the Protocol when alternative chemicals were developed. In this alternate timeline, we could envision the Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy (an industry group) mounting a more aggressive campaign against regulation, emphasizing scientific uncertainty and economic costs. Without the crucial development of commercially viable alternatives by companies like DuPont, industry might have maintained unified opposition, effectively lobbying key governments to reject binding reduction targets.

Geopolitical Tensions Prevent Agreement: The Montreal Protocol negotiations occurred during a period of easing Cold War tensions. Had East-West relations deteriorated more severely in the mid-1980s, cooperation on environmental issues might have become impossible. The Soviet Union, dealing with internal economic challenges, might have refused to participate in what they perceived as Western-led environmental initiatives that would hamper their industrial development.

Dispute Over Developing Country Provisions: The Protocol's "common but differentiated responsibilities" approach and later the Multilateral Fund were crucial for securing developing country participation. A more contentious negotiation process could have failed to bridge the North-South divide, with developing nations rejecting any reductions without substantial financial and technological support, and developed nations refusing to provide such assistance.

Scientific Skepticism Persists Longer: The 1985 British Antarctic Survey paper confirming the ozone hole was pivotal in creating scientific consensus. In this alternate timeline, methodological critiques of this research might have gained more traction, or natural variations in the ozone layer could have temporarily masked the depletion trend, allowing skeptics to delay action by demanding more research.

The most likely scenario combines elements of all these factors. In our divergent timeline, the Montreal negotiations in September 1987 end in deadlock. Rather than producing a binding treaty with specific reduction targets, the conference merely issues a non-binding declaration expressing "concern" about the ozone layer and calling for further research. Without the framework and momentum provided by the Montreal Protocol, subsequent attempts to negotiate global CFC controls throughout the late 1980s and early 1990s repeatedly fail, allowing ozone-depleting substance production and consumption to continue growing worldwide.

Immediate Aftermath

Splintered Regulatory Approaches (1987-1992)

In the absence of a global treaty, nations and regional blocs pursue divergent approaches to the ozone issue. The European Community, led by environmental advocates like Germany and the Nordic countries, implements a unilateral regulation in 1989 requiring a 50% reduction in CFC use by 1995. This creates tension with the United States, where the Reagan administration, heavily influenced by industry concerns about economic impacts, rejects mandatory controls and instead promotes a "voluntary reduction program" with few enforcement mechanisms.

Japan adopts a middle position, announcing moderate reduction targets but implementing them slowly to protect its electronics and refrigeration industries. The Soviet Union, amid glasnost and perestroika, initially signals willingness to reduce CFC production but abandons these plans as its economy deteriorates in the late 1980s. Developing nations like China, India, and Brazil, seeing no financial or technological transfer mechanisms, accelerate their domestic CFC industries to meet growing demand for refrigeration and air conditioning.

This regulatory patchwork creates economic distortions and "pollution havens," with CFC production shifting to less-regulated regions. Global CFC production actually increases by approximately 15% between 1987 and 1992, rather than declining as it did under the actual Montreal Protocol.

Scientific Confirmation and Public Health Alarms (1992-1995)

By 1992, scientific evidence becomes increasingly difficult to dispute. NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite provides comprehensive data showing accelerating ozone depletion not just over Antarctica but also over the Arctic and, more alarmingly, in the mid-latitudes where most of the world's population lives. A landmark study published in Nature in 1993 documents a 15% decrease in stratospheric ozone over North America and Europe compared to 1970s levels.

Public health researchers begin documenting the consequences. Australia, New Zealand, and southern Chile report sharp increases in skin cancer rates, particularly among fair-skinned populations. Ophthalmologists document rising cataract incidence in outdoor workers. Agricultural scientists note decreased yields in UV-sensitive crops in Argentina and South Africa. Marine biologists report declining phytoplankton populations in southern oceans, disrupting marine food webs.

These findings generate significant media coverage and public concern, particularly in highly affected regions. Environmental groups organize "Ozone Action Days" in major cities worldwide. A 1994 Greenpeace campaign targeting CFC manufacturers gains traction, leading to consumer boycotts of products from companies that continue to produce or use CFCs.

Industry Adaptation and Economic Impact (1990-1997)

The chemical industry responds differently across regions, creating economic advantages and disadvantages. European chemical companies, forced to adapt to EC regulations, invest heavily in developing HCFCs (hydrochlorofluorocarbons) and other alternatives with lower ozone-depleting potential. This initially increases costs but eventually gives them a competitive advantage as consumer preferences shift toward "ozone-friendly" products.

U.S. manufacturers, operating under looser regulations, continue producing CFCs at high volumes while conducting more limited research on alternatives. This preserves short-term profits but leaves them vulnerable to changing market demands. Japanese firms pursue a hybrid strategy, maintaining CFC production while gradually developing alternatives, particularly for export to environmentally conscious markets.

Economic impacts vary by sector. The refrigeration and air conditioning industries face the highest adaptation costs, with manufacturers working to redesign systems for different refrigerants. Electronics manufacturers struggle with finding substitutes for cleaning solvents used in circuit board production. The aerosol industry, which had already started transitioning away from CFCs in some regions after early voluntary phase-outs in the 1970s, shows the most significant product differentiation between markets.

Renewed Diplomatic Efforts (1995-1997)

By 1995, the accumulated evidence and public pressure motivate new attempts at international coordination. The United Nations Environment Programme convenes a "Global Ozone Protection Summit" in Nairobi in February 1995. Unlike the successful Montreal negotiations in our timeline, this summit reveals even deeper divisions between nations:

The European Community advocates for a comprehensive global phase-out modeled on their regional approach
The United States, under the Clinton administration, proposes market-based mechanisms including tradable CFC production quotas
Russia and other former Soviet states, struggling with economic transition, demand exemptions and financial assistance
A coalition of developing nations led by India and China refuse any limitations without massive technology transfer and compensation
Small island states and southern hemisphere nations most affected by ozone depletion push for immediate global bans

The summit ends with only a weak "Nairobi Declaration" acknowledging the worsening problem but containing no binding commitments. A follow-up technical conference in Rio de Janeiro in 1996 makes limited progress on defining ozone-depleting potential metrics but fails to establish reduction targets. By 1997, the international community has effectively abandoned hopes for a comprehensive global treaty, shifting focus to regional agreements and bilateral cooperation on research and monitoring.

Public Response and Adaptation (1994-2000)

As scientific consensus solidifies and public awareness grows, individuals and communities begin adapting to increased UV radiation. Dermatologists and public health authorities in highly affected regions launch aggressive "sun safety" campaigns. School systems in Australia, New Zealand, and southern South America implement mandatory "no hat, no play" policies for children. Outdoor work schedules in agriculture and construction shift to minimize midday sun exposure.

Consumer markets respond with explosive growth in UV-protective products. Sales of broad-spectrum sunscreens increase by 300% between 1994 and 1998. The market for UV-protective clothing, sunglasses, and window films expands rapidly. Architecture in UV-affected regions gradually adapts, with new buildings incorporating more covered outdoor spaces and UV-filtering glass.

By the late 1990s, "ozone consciousness" becomes a significant cultural phenomenon in many regions, comparable to today's awareness of climate change. UV index reports become standard features of weather forecasts, and "high UV alert days" occasionally lead to school closures and outdoor event cancellations in the most severely affected areas.

Long-term Impact

Atmospheric and Environmental Consequences (2000-2025)

Severe Ozone Depletion

Without the Montreal Protocol's controls, CFC and other ozone-depleting substance emissions continue at high levels through the 1990s and 2000s. By 2025, stratospheric chlorine levels reach approximately 9 parts per billion – nearly triple the level in our timeline and far above the natural background of 0.6 ppb.

This results in devastating ozone depletion:

The Antarctic ozone hole becomes a permanent year-round feature by 2010, expanding to cover nearly the entire continent and portions of the Southern Ocean
A comparable Arctic ozone hole develops, appearing regularly each spring by 2015
Mid-latitude ozone decreases by 25-30% compared to 1980 levels
Even tropical regions experience ozone thinning of 10-15%

Global average UV-B radiation increases by 20% compared to 1980 levels, with much higher increases during seasonal depletion events. In southern Chile, Argentina, Australia, and New Zealand, UV index readings regularly exceed 16 (extreme) during summer months, compared to typical maximums of 10-12 in our timeline.

Ecosystem Impacts

The ecological consequences of increased UV radiation prove severe and wide-ranging:

Marine ecosystems suffer significant disruption as UV-sensitive phytoplankton populations decline by up to 35% in southern oceans, triggering cascading effects through marine food webs
Amphibian populations, already vulnerable to multiple stressors, experience accelerated declines worldwide, with UV radiation damaging eggs and larvae
Agricultural productivity decreases for UV-sensitive crops, with wheat yields declining 15-20% in southern hemisphere growing regions
Forestry impacts include reduced seedling survival rates and altered competitive dynamics between tree species with different UV tolerances
Coral reef systems face additional stress beyond ocean acidification and warming, as UV damages coral DNA and disrupts symbiotic relationships

By 2020, evidence emerges of evolutionary adaptation in some organisms, as natural selection favors UV-resistant variants. However, these adaptations appear predominantly in short-lived species with rapid generation times, while longer-lived organisms continue to suffer cumulative damage.

Human Health Crisis (2000-2025)

The human health impacts of increased UV exposure develop into a global health crisis by the 2010s:

Skin Cancer Epidemic

Skin cancer rates increase dramatically, particularly in fair-skinned populations. By 2025:

Australia experiences a 300% increase in melanoma incidence compared to 1980 levels
Non-melanoma skin cancers (basal and squamous cell carcinomas) become so common in high-UV regions that they're treated as routine conditions rather than reportable cancers
Skin cancer emerges as the most common malignancy worldwide, surpassing lung and breast cancer
Treatment costs overwhelm healthcare systems in highly affected regions, forcing triage protocols for advanced cases

Other Health Impacts

Beyond skin cancer, other health effects include:

Cataract rates double in high-exposure regions, creating surgical backlogs and increased blindness in areas with limited healthcare access
Immunosuppressive effects of UV exposure contribute to increased infectious disease susceptibility in outdoor workers
Vitamin D toxicity emerges as a surprising problem in some populations, as UV-induced vitamin D production exceeds optimal levels
Mental health impacts emerge from lifestyle restrictions and "sun anxiety," particularly affecting children in high-UV regions

Demographic and Social Impacts

These health consequences reshape demographics and social patterns in heavily affected regions:

Indoor occupations gain significant wage premiums over outdoor work
Population shifts occur from high-UV to lower-UV regions, particularly among retirees and families with children
Night-shift work becomes normalized in outdoor industries like construction and agriculture
Architectural and urban planning undergo revolutionary changes to minimize direct sun exposure

Technological Adaptation and Innovation (2000-2025)

The absence of comprehensive CFC regulations paradoxically accelerates certain technological developments while hindering others:

Refrigeration and Cooling Technology

Without coordinated transition to alternatives, refrigeration technology evolves along multiple competing paths:

Conventional CFC systems remain dominant in developing regions due to lower costs
Ammonia-based systems gain market share in industrial applications despite safety concerns
Magnetic refrigeration, a technology that uses changing magnetic fields rather than chemical refrigerants, achieves commercial viability by 2015, driven by consumer demand for "ozone-safe" alternatives
Traditional cooling approaches like evaporative cooling and passive building design see renewed interest and innovation

UV Protection Technologies

The market for UV protection drives substantial innovation:

Advanced materials science produces fabrics with UPF (ultraviolet protection factor) ratings over 100 while maintaining comfort and breathability
Transparent UV-filtering films for windows, vehicle glass, and electronic displays become ubiquitous
Pharmaceuticals for preventing and treating UV damage proliferate, including oral photoprotective supplements and DNA-repair enzyme creams
Wearable UV monitors become standard consumer products, with UV exposure tracking integrated into health apps

Atmospheric Engineering Proposals

By the 2010s, as ozone depletion consequences become severe, serious consideration turns to technological interventions:

Stratospheric ozone generation using high-altitude aircraft or rockets dispersing ozone-generating compounds
UV-reflecting aerosol deployment in the stratosphere
Space-based UV filtering using orbital sunshades or dust clouds at Lagrange points

While these geoengineering approaches remain largely theoretical by 2025, several small-scale experimental programs are underway, raising complex questions about governance, unintended consequences, and ethical implications of atmospheric manipulation.

Economic and Political Transformations (2000-2025)

Economic Impacts

The continued production of CFCs and absence of coordinated transition to alternatives creates significant economic distortions:

A perpetual two-tier global market emerges for refrigeration, air conditioning, and other CFC-dependent technologies
Adaptation costs related to UV protection and health impacts reach approximately 2% of global GDP by 2020
Agricultural productivity losses in UV-affected regions contribute to food price volatility and regional food insecurity
Healthcare costs associated with UV-related conditions create significant drags on public health systems and private insurers

The economic burden falls disproportionately on regions with high UV exposure, creating a new dimension of global inequality. Australia, New Zealand, southern South America, and South Africa face the highest adaptation costs relative to GDP.

Geopolitical Dimensions

Ozone depletion emerges as a major geopolitical issue, particularly as its uneven impacts become clear:

A coalition of Southern Hemisphere nations forms the "Ozone Justice Alliance" in 2012, advocating for compensation from major CFC-producing countries
Trade disputes proliferate around CFC-containing products, with several regional trade blocs implementing CFC tariffs and import restrictions
UN agencies struggle with coordinating response to what becomes recognized as a "slow-motion disaster"
Military strategists begin incorporating UV exposure considerations into operational planning, particularly for naval and air forces

Integration with Climate Change Politics

By the 2010s, ozone depletion and climate change become increasingly intertwined political issues:

The failure of ozone diplomacy casts a long shadow over climate negotiations, with many of the same political divisions reappearing
Some nations implement combined "atmospheric protection policies" addressing both ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases
Climate engineering proposals increasingly consider both warming mitigation and UV protection
Environmental movements increasingly frame atmospheric protection as a unified cause

The absence of the Montreal Protocol's success story significantly alters the trajectory of international environmental governance. Without this model of effective global cooperation, climate change negotiations become even more contentious than in our timeline, with greater emphasis on unilateral adaptation rather than coordinated mitigation.

Cultural and Social Adaptations (2010-2025)

The persistent threat of harmful UV radiation transforms cultural practices and social norms:

Daily UV forecasts become as central to planning as weather forecasts, with many regions implementing UV alert systems that trigger automatic school schedule changes
Fashion norms shift dramatically, with full-coverage clothing becoming standard in many regions and specialized UV-protective clothing lines dominating markets
Outdoor recreation patterns change substantially, with night sports gaining popularity and beach tourism shifting to dawn/dusk hours or relocating to indoor waterparks
New architectural aesthetics emphasize UV protection through extensive use of covered walkways, UV-filtering glass, and underground or enclosed spaces

In highly affected regions, these adaptations create distinctly different cultural landscapes from our timeline. Cities in Australia, New Zealand, and southern South America become known for their extensive "UV sheltering" infrastructure, with networks of covered walkways, underground shopping complexes, and public UV refuges.

By 2025, an entire generation has grown up under these conditions, normalizing behaviors that would seem extreme in our timeline. "Sun avoidance" becomes ingrained in child-rearing practices, with outdoor playtime carefully restricted and monitored in many regions.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Susan Harrigan, Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry at MIT, offers this perspective: "The Montreal Protocol represents one of the most critical 'near misses' in environmental history. Our models suggest that without the emissions reductions achieved under the Protocol, we would now be experiencing catastrophic ozone depletion with global average decreases of 20-25% and seasonal losses exceeding 60% at high latitudes. The resulting UV increases would cause approximately 20 million additional skin cancer cases and 130 million additional cataract cases worldwide by 2050. What's particularly sobering is how close we came to this alternate reality – the Montreal negotiations succeeded by a remarkably narrow margin, with several key participants prepared to walk away until the final hours."

Professor Miguel Carranza, Chair of International Environmental Governance at the University of Buenos Aires, provides this analysis: "The failure of the Montreal Protocol would have fundamentally altered the trajectory of international environmental cooperation. The Protocol's success established crucial precedents for how nations could effectively address atmospheric commons problems: the precautionary principle, common but differentiated responsibilities, and financial mechanisms for equitable transition. Without these proven frameworks, subsequent climate negotiations would have occurred in a vacuum, lacking practical models for overcoming North-South divisions or balancing immediate economic concerns against long-term environmental imperatives. The collapse of the Montreal process would likely have cast a shadow over environmental multilateralism for decades, reinforcing the false narrative that global environmental problems are simply too complex for coordinated international action."

Dr. Yuki Tanaka, Director of the Global Health Impacts Program at the WHO, comments on the public health dimensions: "While skin cancer gets most attention when discussing ozone depletion, public health professionals are equally concerned about the immunosuppressive effects of increased UV exposure. Research indicates that UV-B radiation can suppress immune function both locally and systemically, potentially increasing vulnerability to infectious diseases. In a world without the Montreal Protocol, we would expect to see subtle but significant increases in infection rates, particularly in high-UV regions with substantial outdoor worker populations. These effects would be difficult to quantify but potentially quite substantial when aggregated across populations. The implications for regions already struggling with high infectious disease burdens would be especially concerning, creating a compound vulnerability that could undermine public health progress on multiple fronts."