What If The New York Marathon Was Never Established?

The Actual History

The New York City Marathon, now the world's largest marathon, began with humble origins in 1970 when 127 runners paid a $1 entry fee to race several loops around Central Park. The event was organized by Fred Lebow, a Manhattan garment district businessman and running enthusiast who had immigrated from Romania, together with Vincent Chiappetta. As president of the New York Road Runners Club, Lebow had a vision of creating a race that would traverse all five boroughs of New York City.

That vision was realized in 1976 during the American Bicentennial celebrations when the marathon expanded beyond Central Park to cover all five boroughs of New York. This expansion transformed the event, with 2,090 participants starting the race and 1,549 finishing. It was a landmark moment for recreational running and for the city, which was struggling through a severe financial crisis and high crime rates at the time. Dick Traum became the first person to complete a marathon with a prosthetic leg in this race, pioneering a tradition of inclusivity.

Throughout the late 1970s and 1980s, under Lebow's passionate leadership, the marathon grew exponentially in size and prestige. The race attracted international elite runners, with legends like Alberto Salazar, Bill Rodgers, Grete Waitz, and Joan Benoit Samuelson cementing their places in the event's storied history. Waitz, in particular, became synonymous with the event, winning nine times between 1978 and 1988.

In 1992, while battling brain cancer, Lebow ran his own marathon for the first time alongside Waitz, completing the course in 5 hours and 32 minutes. This emotional moment has become part of marathon lore. After Lebow's death in 1994, the race continued to grow under new leadership, with the New York Road Runners Club developing into a major nonprofit sports organization.

By the early 2000s, the New York City Marathon had become a massive event, regularly attracting over 30,000 participants. After the September 11 attacks in 2001, the marathon took on additional significance as a symbol of the city's resilience. The 2001 race was dedicated to the victims and first responders, with heightened security and emotional tributes throughout the course.

The event faced unprecedented challenges in 2012 when Hurricane Sandy devastated parts of New York City just days before the scheduled race. After initial plans to proceed, Mayor Michael Bloomberg and race organizers ultimately canceled the marathon—the first cancellation in its history—amid criticism that resources should be directed toward recovery efforts.

In recent years, the New York City Marathon has continued to set records, with over 50,000 finishers in 2019, making it the world's largest marathon. The event generates approximately $415 million in economic impact for the city and raises tens of millions for charities. The field includes professional athletes competing for substantial prize money, celebrities running for causes, and tens of thousands of amateur runners fulfilling personal goals.

Beyond its direct impact, the New York City Marathon helped catalyze the recreational running boom in America. It pioneered the concept of a mass-participation urban marathon that showcases a city, a model that has been replicated worldwide. Major marathons in London, Chicago, Boston, Berlin, and Tokyo now form the World Marathon Majors series, but New York remains the largest in terms of finishers. The event has democratized marathon running, transforming it from an elite athletic pursuit to an accessible goal for everyday athletes of all abilities.

The Point of Divergence

What if the New York Marathon was never established? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where Fred Lebow never organized that first modest race in Central Park in 1970, setting off a cascade of differences in recreational sports, urban events, and the cultural identity of New York City itself.

Several plausible divergences could have prevented the marathon's creation:

First, Fred Lebow (born Fischel Lebowitz) might never have immigrated to the United States from Romania in the 1960s. Perhaps stricter immigration policies or personal circumstances kept him in Europe, removing the key visionary behind the event. Alternatively, Lebow might have settled in a different American city, bringing his organizational talents and passion for running elsewhere.

A second possibility involves the New York Road Runners Club itself. Founded in 1958, the club might have remained focused on track events and smaller races without developing the ambition for a city-spanning marathon. Perhaps without Lebow's leadership or due to internal organizational challenges, the club never expanded its vision to include a major marathon.

Third, the initial 1970 Central Park race might have failed to attract sufficient participation or encountered insurmountable logistical problems, discouraging organizers from attempting it again. At that time, marathon running was still considered an extreme sport for a small number of dedicated athletes, and there was no guarantee that a new race would gain traction.

Finally, the critical 1976 expansion to a five-borough format might never have been approved by city authorities. In the midst of New York's fiscal crisis, with the city nearly bankrupt and crime rates soaring, officials might have deemed a sprawling marathon too costly, too complicated, or too risky from a public safety perspective. Without Mayor Abraham Beame's support for the five-borough concept during the Bicentennial celebrations, the marathon might have remained a minor event confined to Central Park, never achieving the scale and significance that would transform it into a global phenomenon.

In our alternate timeline, we'll assume that Fred Lebow did immigrate to New York but failed to secure necessary approvals from city officials for the initial Central Park marathon, effectively preventing the event from ever taking root in the city's cultural landscape.

Immediate Aftermath

The Early 1970s Running Landscape

Without the New York Marathon's inaugural event in 1970, the American running landscape would have developed quite differently in the early 1970s:

Fragmented Running Community: The New York running community would have remained more fragmented without the unifying goal of a city marathon. The New York Road Runners Club would have likely continued organizing smaller races but would not have achieved the same prominence or growth trajectory.
Boston's Unchallenged Dominance: The Boston Marathon, already well-established since 1897, would have maintained its position as America's premier marathon without significant competition from New York. This could have concentrated elite marathon talent in Boston, potentially leading to even more competitive fields and record-setting performances there.
Delayed Running Boom: While the 1970s recreational running boom was influenced by multiple factors—including Frank Shorter's 1972 Olympic marathon gold medal and Jim Fixx's 1977 bestseller "The Complete Book of Running"—the New York Marathon played a crucial role in democratizing the sport. Without it, the growth of recreational running in America might have been slower and less dramatic, particularly in urban areas.

Impact on New York City's Recovery

The absence of the New York Marathon would have subtly altered the city's recovery from its 1970s fiscal crisis:

Missing Symbol of Revitalization: The five-borough marathon, launched in 1976, provided a powerful visual narrative of New York's unity and resilience during difficult times. Without this symbolic event showcasing all five boroughs, the city's efforts to project a positive image nationally would have lost an important component.
Tourism Gap: Though not immediately as significant as it would later become, the marathon began attracting out-of-town participants and spectators from its early years. Without this annual influx of visitors, New York's tourism industry would have missed an early opportunity for growth during the challenging economic times of the late 1970s.
Alternative Events: City officials, still seeking ways to promote New York, might have invested more heavily in other public events. Perhaps the existing Thanksgiving Day Parade would have received greater emphasis, or different sporting or cultural events might have emerged to fill the void.

Evolution of Urban Running Events

The absence of the New York Marathon would have altered the development pattern of urban running events globally:

Delayed Development of City Marathons: The New York Marathon pioneered the concept of a race that showcased an entire city. Without this model, other major city marathons might have emerged later or developed differently. The London Marathon, founded in 1981 partially inspired by New York's success, might have taken longer to establish or followed a different format.
Alternative Running Event Models: Without New York's influential example, alternative models for mass participation running events might have gained greater prominence. Perhaps shorter distance races (like 10Ks) would have become the dominant urban running format, or races centered on parks rather than city streets might have become the norm.
Corporate Involvement: The New York Marathon helped establish the template for corporate sponsorship of mass participation sporting events. In its absence, the business model for large-scale running events might have evolved more slowly or differently, potentially limiting their growth and reach.

Individual Stories Altered

Beyond these broader impacts, countless individual stories would have unfolded differently:

Grete Waitz: The Norwegian runner who won the New York Marathon nine times between 1978 and 1988 might never have become an international running icon without her New York successes. Her career might have followed a different trajectory, perhaps focused more on track events or European competitions.
Dick Traum: As the first amputee to complete the New York Marathon in 1976, Traum pioneered adaptive sports participation in mainstream events. Without this platform, the integration of athletes with disabilities into major running events might have progressed more slowly.
Charitable Fundraising: The practice of running marathons to raise funds for charities—now a cornerstone of marathon culture—might have developed later or differently without New York's early embrace of charity runners.

By the early 1980s, in this alternate timeline, recreational running would still have grown in popularity, but without the catalyzing effect of the New York Marathon, it would have lacked an important showcase and inspiration. The interconnection between urban identity, mass sports participation, and corporate sponsorship that the marathon helped establish would be notably absent from American cultural life.

Long-term Impact

The Landscape of Recreational Running

Without the New York Marathon as a catalyst, the evolution of recreational running through the 1980s and beyond would have followed a markedly different trajectory:

Altered Marathon Hierarchy

Boston's Continued Primacy: In our alternate timeline, the Boston Marathon would have maintained its position as America's preeminent marathon without serious challenge. Rather than being one among several major marathons, Boston might have developed into an even more exclusive, elite-focused event with higher qualification standards.
Different Major Players: Without New York's model to follow, other city marathons that emerged might have been distributed differently geographically. Perhaps Philadelphia, Washington D.C., or San Francisco would have developed the premier urban marathons, changing the centers of American running culture.
Later International Development: The explosion of international city marathons in the 1980s and 1990s was significantly influenced by New York's success. Without this template, the development of events like the Berlin, Chicago, and Tokyo marathons might have been delayed by years or taken different forms.

Participation Patterns

Slower Democratization: The New York Marathon was instrumental in transforming marathon running from an elite pursuit to a mass participation activity. Without it, this transformation would likely have occurred more gradually, potentially keeping marathon running as a more niche activity for serious athletes longer into the 1990s.
Gender Balance Shifts: The New York Marathon played a crucial role in expanding women's participation in distance running. In its absence, the growth in women's marathon participation rates might have been slower, potentially delaying the achievement of gender parity in recreational running.
Different Distance Preferences: Without the allure of New York's five-borough course making the marathon distance particularly appealing, American recreational running might have centered more around shorter distances. Perhaps 10K races or half marathons would have become the aspirational distance for most recreational runners.

Economic and Cultural Impacts on New York City

The absence of the marathon would have created subtle but significant differences in New York's economic and cultural development:

Tourism and Economy

Revenue Gap: By the 2010s, the New York Marathon was generating over $400 million in economic impact annually. Without this injection, New York's tourism economy would be notably different, with November being a less significant month for visitors.
Different International Perception: The marathon helped rebrand New York internationally as a more accessible, participatory city rather than merely a business and cultural center. Without this softening influence, New York's international image might have remained more exclusively focused on finance, arts, and commerce.
Alternative Event Development: To fill the gap left by the marathon, New York might have developed alternative signature sporting events. Perhaps a major cycling event, a harbor swimming race, or even a different running format might have emerged as the city's premier participatory sporting spectacle.

Urban Identity and Community

Borough Relations: The marathon served as a rare event that united all five boroughs in a single celebratory day. Without this unifying event, the distinct identities of the boroughs might have remained more separate, with fewer opportunities for cross-borough community building.
Different Volunteer Culture: The marathon mobilizes thousands of volunteers annually, creating a culture of civic participation. Without this volunteer opportunity, New York's culture of community service might have developed differently, perhaps more focused on neighborhood-specific activities rather than citywide efforts.

The Global Sporting and Fitness Landscape

Beyond New York and running specifically, the absence of the New York Marathon would have ripple effects throughout global sports and fitness culture:

Mass Participation Event Models

Alternative Templates: Without New York's influential model of taking over city streets for a major participatory sporting event, alternative approaches might have dominated. Perhaps stadium-centered events or more contained race courses within parks would have become the norm.
Different Corporate Involvement: The New York Marathon pioneered a particular model of corporate sponsorship for mass participation events. In its absence, the relationship between major brands and recreational sports might have evolved differently, perhaps with more fragmented sponsorship patterns or different activation strategies.

Charity Fundraising Evolution

Delayed Charity Running Culture: The practice of running for charity, which became a cornerstone of marathon culture, might have developed later or differently. The tens of millions of dollars raised annually through marathon-related charity programs would be redirected or simply absent.
Alternative Fundraising Models: Without run-for-charity as a dominant model, other forms of athletic fundraising might have gained greater prominence, such as charity walks, bike rides, or swim events.

Media Coverage and Technology

Different Broadcasting Approaches: The New York Marathon pioneered innovations in how to televise a mass participation sporting event. Without these innovations, coverage of recreational sports might have developed along different lines, perhaps focusing more on elite competitors or using different storytelling approaches.
Altered Technological Development: The timing and tracking systems developed for managing 50,000+ marathon participants drove innovations that later spread to other events. Without this catalyst, developments in RFID timing chips, runner tracking apps, and registration systems might have progressed more slowly.

Present Day Differences (2025)

By 2025 in our alternate timeline, the world of recreational running and urban sporting events would look substantially different:

Different Running Capitals: Instead of New York, London, Boston, Berlin, Chicago, and Tokyo forming the World Marathon Majors, a different set of cities might host the premier running events, perhaps including cities that in our timeline have secondary status in the running world.
Altered Fitness Culture: Without the marathon boom that the New York event helped catalyze, fitness culture might have evolved with different aspirational goals. Perhaps trail running, obstacle course racing, or triathlon might have earlier or greater prominence as the ultimate tests of recreational athleticism.
Changed Urban Event Landscape: The model of shutting down city streets for mass participation sporting events might be less common. Cities might instead favor more contained events that create less disruption to normal city functioning.
Different New York November: Instead of the first Sunday in November being universally recognized as Marathon Sunday in New York, the city might have a different signature autumn event—or perhaps no single defining event during this season.

In this alternate 2025, recreational running would still be popular, but its manifestations, centers of gravity, and cultural significance would differ in subtle yet fundamental ways. The democratization of endurance sports might have taken longer or followed different pathways, potentially making these activities less accessible to everyday participants and maintaining a greater divide between elite and recreational athletes.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Amara Washington, Professor of Sports Sociology at Columbia University, offers this perspective: "The New York Marathon did something remarkable that we now take for granted—it transformed a fundamentally solitary activity into a massive communal experience. Without Lebow's vision in New York, I believe we'd still have seen growth in recreational running, but the social aspect might have remained secondary. The marathon created a model where the average person could participate in the same event as world champions, on the same day, on the same course—a rare democratic quality in sports. In an alternate timeline without the New York Marathon, running might have remained more atomized and less integrated into urban identity. We might see fewer everyday people identifying as 'runners' and more separation between elite athletics and recreational sports."

Marco Giannetti, former Director of Events for the International Association of Athletics Federations, provides a different analysis: "The absence of the New York Marathon would have created a vacuum in the fall marathon season that other cities would have eventually filled, but with different characteristics. I suspect we would have seen a more geographically diverse set of major marathons emerge, perhaps with stronger events in the southern United States or in Asia earlier on. The concentration of prestige in the Boston-New York axis significantly shaped how the global running calendar developed. Without New York, we might have seen a more balanced global distribution of premier events, potentially making the sport more internationally equitable. The five-borough model might have been replaced by something else entirely—perhaps events that connected multiple cities or followed historically significant routes might have become the prestigious format instead of the urban showcase model New York pioneered."

Dr. Michelle Chen, Urban Economist at NYU's Rudin Center for Transportation, examines the economic implications: "The economic footprint of the New York Marathon extends far beyond race day itself. It created a template for how cities could use participatory sporting events as economic development tools—generating tourism, showcasing neighborhoods, and creating global branding opportunities. Without this model, I believe cities would have taken longer to recognize the economic potential of mass participation sports. New York itself would have likely developed alternative tourism draws for the fall season, but the unique characteristic of the marathon—bringing visitors to all five boroughs and dispersing economic benefits citywide—would be difficult to replicate. The marathon also pioneered the model of using mass sporting events for urban renewal and perception change. This strategy has since been adopted globally, but might have emerged more slowly or in different forms without New York's influential example."