What If The Night of The Long Knives Never Occurred?

The Actual History

The Night of the Long Knives (in German, Nacht der langen Messer), also known as Operation Hummingbird or the Röhm Purge, was a series of political assassinations carried out between June 30 and July 2, 1934. This bloody purge represented a critical turning point in Adolf Hitler's consolidation of power in Nazi Germany, occurring approximately 17 months after he had been appointed Chancellor.

By early 1934, tensions were mounting between different factions within the Nazi regime. The Sturmabteilung (SA, or Storm Detachment), the original paramilitary wing of the Nazi Party led by Ernst Röhm, had played a crucial role in Hitler's rise to power through street violence, intimidation, and the disruption of opposition meetings. By 1934, the SA had swelled to approximately 4 million members, dwarfing the German Army's 100,000 soldiers (a limit imposed by the Treaty of Versailles).

Röhm envisioned the SA as the core of a "people's army" that would replace the traditional military establishment. He advocated for a "second revolution" that would emphasize the socialist elements of National Socialism, potentially threatening the interests of the industrial and military elites whose support Hitler needed. Röhm also wanted his SA to absorb the traditional German Army (Reichswehr), with himself as Minister of Defense.

This vision alarmed several powerful groups:

The traditional military leadership, who viewed the undisciplined SA as a threat to their professional status and influence
Conservative political elites, who feared Röhm's revolutionary rhetoric
Industrialists, who had supported Hitler precisely to prevent socialist policies
Hitler himself, who recognized that he needed the support of the traditional army and worried about Röhm's growing power and independence

Additionally, Hitler's more elite personal bodyguard organization, the Schutzstaffel (SS) under Heinrich Himmler and Reinhard Heydrich, was eager to break free from its nominal subordination to the SA and establish itself as an independent force.

In June 1934, Hitler moved decisively. Using fabricated evidence of an imminent SA coup plot provided by Himmler and Heydrich, Hitler ordered a purge. On June 30, 1934, Hitler personally led SS officers to arrest Röhm and other SA leaders at a resort in Bad Wiessee, Bavaria. Over the next two days, the SS conducted a series of executions throughout Germany. Röhm was shot in his cell after refusing to commit suicide. The purge extended beyond the SA to include other political opponents, former allies deemed unreliable, and some targeted for personal reasons.

The official death toll announced by the Nazi regime was 77, though historians estimate that between 150 and 200 people were killed. The Reichstag subsequently passed a law retroactively legalizing the murders as emergency state defense measures.

The aftermath of the purge was transformative for Nazi Germany. The SA was substantially diminished as a political force, with leadership loyal to Hitler installed and its role reduced primarily to training and indoctrination. The SS emerged as an independent organization directly responsible to Hitler, beginning its evolution into the most powerful organization in Nazi Germany. The purge also eliminated Hitler's need to share power with other revolutionary elements within the Nazi movement and solidified his alliance with the traditional military, which swore a personal oath of loyalty to Hitler in August 1934. The German officer corps, relieved by the elimination of the SA threat, became increasingly complicit in the Nazi regime.

For the German public, the Night of the Long Knives demonstrated Hitler's willingness to use extreme violence against perceived threats, setting a precedent for the brutal methods that would characterize the Third Reich. It also represented the triumph of the more pragmatic, militaristic elements of the Nazi regime over its revolutionary, quasi-socialist wing, establishing a clear trajectory toward preparation for war rather than domestic social revolution.

The Point of Divergence

What if the Night of the Long Knives never occurred? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where Hitler chose to accommodate rather than eliminate Ernst Röhm and the SA leadership in mid-1934, fundamentally altering the power dynamics of the Third Reich and potentially changing the course of World War II.

Several plausible divergences could have prevented the purge:

First, Hitler might have found a political compromise with Röhm rather than resorting to violence. Despite their differences, Hitler and Röhm had a long personal history dating back to the early days of the Nazi movement, with Röhm being one of Hitler's earliest supporters. In our timeline, Hitler hesitated before moving against his old comrade. If Hitler had offered Röhm a position that satisfied his ambitions while preserving the traditional military structure—perhaps as a special minister for national mobilization or youth training—the immediate crisis might have been defused.

Alternatively, the power dynamics could have shifted if Hermann Göring and Heinrich Himmler, who strongly advocated for eliminating Röhm, had not convinced Hitler that the SA posed an imminent threat. Both men had personal motivations: Göring sought to secure his position as Hitler's second-in-command, while Himmler wanted to elevate the SS. If their influence had been countered by others in Hitler's inner circle who favored accommodation with Röhm, such as Rudolf Hess or Joseph Goebbels (at least initially), Hitler might have pursued a different approach.

A third possibility involves military circumstances. If Germany had faced an external crisis in June 1934 that required national unity, Hitler might have postponed action against Röhm indefinitely. Once postponed, the political calculations could have shifted as Hitler found other ways to manage the SA rather than purging its leadership.

Finally, if Reich President Paul von Hindenburg, who was dying in 1934 and whose support gave Hitler crucial legitimacy, had more actively opposed a violent purge, Hitler might have been constrained. Hindenburg still commanded considerable respect from the German Army, and his open opposition to eliminating Röhm could have forced Hitler to seek a negotiated solution.

In our alternate timeline, we will explore a scenario where Hitler, always the political opportunist, recognized the value of keeping the SA intact as a counterbalance to the traditional military while finding ways to control Röhm's revolutionary ambitions. Instead of a purge, Hitler orchestrates a renegotiation of power that preserves the SA's strength while preventing it from threatening his supreme authority.

This decision point—choosing accommodation over elimination—creates ripple effects that would fundamentally alter the character of the Nazi regime, its relationship with German society, and ultimately its approach to rearmament and war.

Immediate Aftermath

Reconfigured Power Dynamics in the Nazi Leadership

Without the elimination of the SA leadership, the internal power structure of the Nazi regime would have developed along significantly different lines throughout 1934-1936:

Continued SA Dominance: The SA would have remained the largest paramilitary organization in Germany, with its 4 million members continuing to play a major role in enforcing Nazi policies at the street level. Ernst Röhm would have retained his position in Hitler's inner circle, though likely with modified responsibilities that satisfied his ambitions while constraining his independence.

Constrained SS Development: Without the purge, the SS would have remained nominally subordinate to the SA rather than evolving into an independent power center. Heinrich Himmler and Reinhard Heydrich would have continued building their intelligence capabilities, but their ability to create a state-within-a-state would have been significantly curtailed by Röhm's continued presence and power.

Hitler's Balancing Act: Hitler would have needed to become even more adept at balancing competing power centers within his regime. Rather than ruling through relatively streamlined chains of command with the SS as his primary instrument, he would have maintained a more complex system of competing organizations, playing the SA, SS, regular military, and party apparatus against each other.

Röhm's Managed Role: To accommodate Röhm while limiting his threat, Hitler might have created a new position for him—perhaps as head of a national militia system or minister for national mobilization—that channeled his energies in directions that did not directly challenge the traditional military hierarchy.

Military Development and Rearmament

The continued existence of a powerful SA would have significantly affected Germany's rearmament program in 1934-1936:

Hybrid Military Structure: Rather than the clear primacy of the traditional military that emerged after the Night of the Long Knives, Germany might have developed a hybrid structure with the Wehrmacht handling professional military development while the SA focused on mass mobilization, preliminary training, and creating a militarized society.

Slowed Professional Military Development: The professional military leadership under Werner von Blomberg and Werner von Fritsch would have been forced to accommodate SA influence, potentially slowing the sophisticated military modernization programs that characterized German rearmament in our timeline. The traditional officer corps would have remained more politically independent but also more constrained in its planning.

Earlier Mass Mobilization: The SA's emphasis on "people's war" concepts might have pushed Nazi Germany toward earlier mass mobilization rather than the creation of a smaller, highly professional force. This could have resulted in larger but less well-equipped and trained forces by the late 1930s.

Technological Priorities: Röhm's "revolutionary military" concepts might have emphasized different technological priorities, potentially focusing more on infantry weapons, defensive systems, and equipment for mass forces rather than the combined-arms, mechanized warfare doctrine that developed under the professional military.

Domestic Politics and Social Impact

The continued prominence of the SA would have significantly affected domestic developments in Nazi Germany:

Stronger "Socialist" Elements: Röhm and many SA leaders took the "socialism" in National Socialism more seriously than Hitler did. Their continued influence would likely have resulted in more worker-oriented economic policies and possibly greater state control of industry. This might have manifested in expanded worker welfare programs, housing initiatives, and possibly even nationalization of some industries—all wrapped in nationalist rather than Marxist rhetoric.

Industrialist Concerns: German industrialists, who had supported Hitler as a bulwark against communism, would have grown increasingly concerned about the SA's rhetoric and power. This might have created tensions in Hitler's support coalition, forcing him to make difficult choices between his paramilitary supporters and his financial backers.

Extended Street Violence: The SA's tendency toward street violence and direct action would have continued longer than in our timeline, where the post-purge Nazi state increasingly channeled violence through more controlled institutional forms. Sporadic anti-Jewish riots, attacks on perceived enemies of the regime, and general lawlessness by SA members would have persisted, creating a more visibly chaotic society.

Intensified Antisemitism: While the SS ultimately implemented the Holocaust in our timeline, the SA was notoriously antisemitic from the beginning. Their continued prominence would likely have resulted in more immediate, visible persecution of Jews in Germany, though perhaps in less systematized forms initially.

International Reactions

The international community would have perceived Nazi Germany differently with the SA remaining powerful:

Heightened Western Alarm: The revolutionary rhetoric and visible street violence of the SA would have heightened Western concerns about the Nazi regime earlier. The British and French governments might have taken German threats more seriously sooner, potentially accelerating rearmament programs in response.

Soviet Calculations: The Soviet Union under Stalin would have viewed a Nazi Germany with strong "national socialist" elements differently than the more traditionally militaristic regime that emerged after the purge. This might have affected Soviet diplomatic calculations, potentially making the eventual Nazi-Soviet Pact less likely.

Emigration Patterns: The more visibly chaotic and violent nature of SA-influenced Germany would likely have accelerated emigration of Jews, intellectuals, and political opponents, potentially preserving more of Germany's intellectual and cultural capital but also spreading alarm about the Nazi regime more quickly internationally.

By late 1936, a Nazi Germany where the Night of the Long Knives never occurred would have been more internally divided, with competing power centers and a more revolutionary character. Its military development would have followed different lines, potentially emphasizing mass mobilization over professional excellence. The regime's domestic policies might have included more worker-oriented economic programs alongside increased street-level antisemitic violence. Internationally, the more revolutionary character of the regime would have heightened concerns, potentially affecting diplomatic alignments and rearmament schedules in neighboring countries.

Long-term Impact

Evolution of the Nazi State Structure (1936-1939)

The absence of the Night of the Long Knives would have created a fundamentally different Nazi state structure as Hitler consolidated his power:

Institutionalized Factionalism: Rather than the relatively streamlined totalitarian state that emerged in our timeline, this alternate Nazi Germany would have evolved into a more factional system. Hitler would have continued to rule by balancing competing power centers—primarily the SA, the traditional military, the Nazi Party apparatus, and the constrained SS. This institutionalized competition would have created inefficiencies but also built-in checks on any single organization gaining too much power.

Modified Führer Principle: While Hitler would still have emerged as the unquestioned leader, especially after Hindenburg's death in August 1934, his practical authority would have been somewhat more constrained by the need to maintain Röhm's support. The "Führer principle" would have been modified in practice, with Hitler needing to make more concessions to key power blocs rather than ruling by unquestioned decree.

Revolutionary Legitimacy: Without the purge, the Nazi regime would have maintained more of its revolutionary character rather than evolving toward a strange hybrid of revolutionary ideology and conservative institutional forms. The regime's legitimacy would have rested more heavily on its claims to be a genuine people's movement rather than on traditional concepts of state authority.

Alternative Security Apparatus: Without the massive expansion of the SS and SD (Sicherheitsdienst) that followed the Night of the Long Knives, Nazi Germany would have developed a different internal security system. The Gestapo might have remained under control of Hermann Göring rather than being absorbed into Himmler's SS empire, creating a more fragmented security apparatus with multiple competing intelligence and enforcement organizations.

Military Development and War Preparation (1936-1939)

The continued existence of a powerful SA would have dramatically altered German military development in the critical years leading to World War II:

"People's Army" Concept: Röhm's vision of a "people's army" might have gradually been implemented in some form, creating a military structure that balanced professional units with mass formations drawn from SA ranks. This might have resulted in a larger but less technically proficient and mobile military by 1939.

Altered Rearmament Priorities: The influence of the SA's leadership would have shifted rearmament priorities. There might have been less emphasis on advanced weapons systems like tanks and aircraft and more focus on equipping massive infantry formations. This could have resulted in a German military less capable of the Blitzkrieg tactics that proved so effective in 1939-1941.

Compromised Command Structure: The traditional military expertise of the German General Staff would have been diluted by SA influence. Strategic and tactical planning might have been compromised by political considerations and the need to incorporate SA units and leadership into operational designs.

Different Military Alliances: The professional connections between the German and Italian militaries that developed in our timeline might have been altered if the Italian Fascist militia model (which more closely resembled the SA) had greater influence on German military organization.

Ideological Evolution and Persecution Patterns

The continued prominence of the SA would have affected how Nazi ideology developed and how persecution was implemented:

Intensified but Less Systematic Persecution: The SA's more improvisational and public approach to violence would have resulted in more visible but potentially less systematic persecution of regime enemies. Jews, political opponents, and other targeted groups would have faced more immediate public brutality but perhaps with more opportunities to escape than under the methodical SS system that developed in our timeline.

Competing Racial Theories: While antisemitism was central to both Röhm's SA and Himmler's SS, their approaches differed. The SS developed elaborate pseudo-scientific racial theories and bureaucratic approaches to "racial policy," while the SA generally engaged in more opportunistic violence. This might have resulted in less systematic implementation of racial policies but no less deadly results for targeted groups.

Economic Radicalism: The "left-wing" of the Nazi movement, which was largely eliminated in the Night of the Long Knives, might have continued pushing for more radical economic policies, including nationalization of industries and banks. This could have created a Nazi Germany with more state control of the economy, potentially enhancing war production capabilities but creating inefficiencies and corruption.

The Path to War and World War II

Perhaps most significantly, a Nazi Germany where the SA remained powerful would have approached territorial expansion and war differently:

Delayed Military Readiness: The hybridized military structure resulting from SA influence would likely have delayed German military readiness. The sophisticated combined-arms approach that characterized the Wehrmacht's early victories might have developed more slowly or incompletely. This could have pushed Hitler's aggressive moves back by several years.

Different Alliance Patterns: The revolutionary character of an SA-influenced Germany might have complicated Hitler's diplomatic maneuvers. Conservative elements in countries like Hungary, Romania, and Spain might have been more hesitant to align with a visibly revolutionary Germany, while Japan might have found the regime more ideologically compatible.

Alternative War Strategies: If war did break out, German strategy might have emphasized different approaches. Rather than the high-mobility warfare that characterized the early Blitzkrieg campaigns, a German military influenced by SA doctrine might have relied more on mass infantry attacks supported by artillery, resembling more closely the warfare of 1918 than the mobile operations of 1940.

Modified Holocaust: The Holocaust as we know it—a systematized, industrialized genocide—was largely an SS creation that evolved during wartime. An alternate Germany with a weakened SS and stronger SA might have implemented antisemitic policies through different mechanisms, possibly relying more on deportations, ghettoes, and mass shootings rather than developing the death camp system.

Potential War Outcomes

By 1941-1942, the divergences would have accumulated to potentially change the course and outcome of World War II:

Early Setbacks: Without the highly effective combined-arms military that Germany developed in our timeline, early campaigns against Poland and France might have been much slower and costlier, perhaps even resulting in stalemates rather than decisive victories. This could have fundamentally altered the war's trajectory, possibly preventing the fall of France or creating a prolonged multi-front war from the beginning.

Different Eastern Front: The invasion of the Soviet Union, if it occurred, would have looked very different. Without the mobile warfare capabilities that initially gave the Wehrmacht its edge, the campaign might have bogged down much sooner, potentially sparing the Soviet Union the catastrophic losses of 1941 and accelerating Germany's defeat.

Internal Strife During Wartime: The competing power centers within the Nazi regime might have created serious command problems once Germany faced military setbacks. Blame games between the SA and traditional military leadership could have accelerated the regime's collapse or even led to internal power struggles during the war.

Alternative Resistance Patterns: The German military resistance to Hitler, which culminated in the July 1944 bomb plot in our timeline, might have developed differently. With the military maintaining more institutional independence from the beginning, resistance networks might have formed earlier and been more effective.

By 1945, a Nazi Germany where the Night of the Long Knives never occurred would have been a fundamentally different entity. Its military capabilities, governance structure, implementation of persecution, and ability to wage war would all have differed significantly from the historical Nazi regime. While it's impossible to say with certainty whether such a regime would have fallen sooner or later than in our timeline, it almost certainly would have followed a different path to either victory or defeat, with profound implications for Europe and the world.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Richard Evans, Professor Emeritus of Modern European History at Cambridge University, offers this perspective:

"The Night of the Long Knives represents one of history's most consequential internal power struggles. Had Hitler chosen accommodation with Röhm rather than elimination, Nazi Germany would have maintained more of its revolutionary character rather than evolving into what I've called a 'charismatic dictatorship' built around Hitler's person. The continued presence of a powerful SA would have created a very different power structure—more factional, less efficient, but potentially more ideologically consistent in its implementation of 'national socialist' principles. The Holocaust might have unfolded very differently, perhaps with more visible public violence but less systematic implementation. I suspect such a regime would have stumbled earlier in its military ambitions due to the dilution of professional military expertise by SA influence, potentially changing the entire course of World War II."

Dr. Claudia Koonz, Professor of History at Duke University and expert on Nazi Germany, provides another analysis:

"An often overlooked aspect of the Röhm purge was its effect on gender politics in Nazi Germany. The SA leadership included many men who didn't conform to Nazi ideals of masculinity, including Röhm himself, who was homosexual. After the purge, the SS under Himmler intensified the regime's hypermasculine, heteronormative ideology. Without the purge, Nazi gender politics might have remained somewhat more ambiguous. More broadly, the survival of the SA would have preserved the street-level, participatory nature of Nazi violence rather than channeling it through bureaucratic institutions. This would have maintained the 'carnival of violence' that characterized early Nazism, making the regime's crimes more visible to ordinary Germans but perhaps less efficiently implemented. I believe such a regime would have generated more internal resistance precisely because its brutality would have remained more public and less compartmentalized."

Dr. Robert Gerwarth, Professor of Modern History at University College Dublin and Director of the Centre for War Studies, suggests:

"The military implications of an unpurged SA are fascinating to consider. The German military's rapid development between 1934 and 1939 was facilitated by the removal of SA influence and Hitler's bargain with the traditional officer corps. With Röhm still alive and the SA intact, German rearmament would likely have followed a different trajectory—perhaps larger in manpower but less sophisticated in equipment and doctrine. The Blitzkrieg tactics that proved so devastating in 1939-1940 might never have been developed or implemented effectively. This raises the intriguing possibility that France might not have fallen in 1940, potentially altering the entire war. Additionally, the SS's evolution into a state-within-a-state with its own military formations would have been curtailed, significantly changing how the Holocaust and other Nazi crimes were perpetrated. In essence, a Nazi Germany without the Night of the Long Knives might have been more revolutionary in rhetoric but less effective in implementing its radical vision."