What If The Nintendo Switch Was Never Developed?

The Actual History

The Nintendo Switch represents one of the most successful pivots in gaming history. Following the commercial disappointment of the Wii U, which launched in 2012 and sold only 13.56 million units worldwide during its short lifespan, Nintendo found itself at a crossroads. The company's previous console, the Wii, had been a phenomenal success with over 101 million units sold, but the Wii U's confusing marketing, limited third-party support, and awkward tablet controller failed to capture the public's imagination.

Development of the Switch (originally codenamed "NX") began in 2014 under the leadership of Nintendo's late president Satoru Iwata, who passed away in 2015 before seeing the project completed. The concept represented a fundamental rethinking of gaming hardware: a hybrid device that functioned both as a traditional home console when docked to a TV and as a portable handheld when undocked. This innovative approach addressed a problem Nintendo had identified—that as mobile gaming grew more popular, home console usage was declining as players had less dedicated time in front of their televisions.

On October 20, 2016, Nintendo revealed the Switch in a three-minute trailer that clearly demonstrated its hybrid functionality. The console officially launched on March 3, 2017, alongside the critically acclaimed "The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild," which became one of the most celebrated games of the decade.

The Switch proved to be exactly what Nintendo needed. By December 2021, it had sold over 100 million units worldwide, surpassing the Wii's lifetime sales. As of 2023, the Switch had sold over 132 million units, making it Nintendo's most successful home console and the third best-selling console of all time, behind only the PlayStation 2 and Nintendo DS.

What made the Switch particularly successful was its appeal to multiple demographics: hardcore gamers, casual players, families, and people who hadn't played games in years. The ability to seamlessly transition between TV play and handheld mode resonated with consumers living increasingly busy, fragmented lives. The Switch also solved Nintendo's long-standing third-party support problem, with many developers embracing the platform and creating ports of popular titles.

The console revitalized Nintendo's most beloved franchises with games like "Super Mario Odyssey," "Animal Crossing: New Horizons," and "Pokémon Sword and Shield," while also fostering new intellectual properties and indie game support. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 further accelerated the Switch's success, with "Animal Crossing: New Horizons" becoming a cultural phenomenon during worldwide lockdowns.

By 2025, the Switch stands as one of the most transformative products in Nintendo's 136-year history, fundamentally changing how and where people play video games and securing Nintendo's position as an innovative leader in the gaming industry for another generation.

The Point of Divergence

What if the Nintendo Switch was never developed? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where Nintendo took a dramatically different direction following the failure of the Wii U, abandoning the hybrid console concept that would have revolutionized gaming.

Several plausible divergence points could have prevented the Switch's development:

First, Nintendo's developmental strategy for the Switch was heavily influenced by the late Satoru Iwata, who pushed for the hybrid concept. If Iwata had more strongly advocated for a different approach before his untimely death in 2015—perhaps doubling down on separate dedicated home and handheld systems—the Switch concept might never have materialized. In our alternate timeline, Iwata might have been convinced that merging Nintendo's successful handheld division with their struggling home console business was too risky.

Alternatively, technological limitations could have derailed the Switch. The console relied on NVIDIA's Tegra X1 chip to balance power consumption and performance in a portable form factor. If NVIDIA had chosen not to partner with Nintendo or if the chip had failed to meet development targets for heat management or battery efficiency, Nintendo might have abandoned the hybrid approach as technically unfeasible during the 2014-2015 development phase.

A third possibility involves Nintendo's infamous conservative business philosophy. The Switch represented a substantial risk—essentially betting the company's future on an unproven console concept. In this alternate timeline, Nintendo's board of directors, particularly following Iwata's death, might have opted for a safer approach to recover from the Wii U's failure, perhaps by following competitor trends toward more powerful traditional consoles or by retreating to their handheld market stronghold.

Finally, market research might have played a role. If early user testing of the Switch prototype had yielded negative feedback about its form factor, control scheme, or perceived value proposition, Nintendo might have scrapped the hybrid concept entirely. The company has previously canceled or drastically altered hardware projects based on test user feedback.

In our alternate timeline, a combination of these factors—conservative leadership following Iwata's passing, technical challenges with the hybrid approach, and a strategic decision to segregate handheld and home console development—led Nintendo to abandon the Switch concept in late 2015, setting the company on a radically different trajectory.

Immediate Aftermath

Nintendo's Emergency Pivot (2016-2017)

With the Wii U officially declared a commercial failure and the planned Switch concept abandoned, Nintendo faced an immediate crisis in early 2016. The company's stock plummeted as investors questioned whether Nintendo could remain competitive in the rapidly evolving gaming hardware market.

Under the leadership of the newly appointed president Tatsumi Kimishima, Nintendo announced what analysts called an "emergency pivot" strategy. Rather than developing a new home console to directly compete with Sony's PlayStation 4 and Microsoft's Xbox One (both of which had significantly more powerful hardware than the Wii U), Nintendo made the surprising decision to temporarily exit the home console market.

"We must focus on our strengths," Kimishima announced in April 2016. "Nintendo will concentrate on developing a next-generation dedicated handheld system while exploring new business opportunities in mobile gaming and entertainment."

The 3DS Extended Lifecycle (2016-2018)

Nintendo immediately extended the lifecycle of its successful Nintendo 3DS handheld, which had sold over 58 million units by early 2016. The company announced an aggressive slate of first-party titles for the platform, including new entries in the Pokémon, Fire Emblem, and Mario franchises.

The 3DS received a minor hardware refresh in late 2016, dubbed the "New Nintendo 3DS Pro," featuring improved battery life, enhanced 3D effects, and modest performance improvements. The device was positioned as Nintendo's primary gaming platform while the company regrouped.

Industry analysts were divided on this strategy. Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities commented: "Nintendo is retreating to its comfort zone. While this may provide short-term stability, it fails to address the long-term threat of mobile gaming to dedicated handheld devices."

Accelerated Mobile Strategy (2016-2018)

Without the Switch to bridge the gap between console and mobile experiences, Nintendo dramatically accelerated its partnership with DeNA to develop mobile games based on its popular franchises. Following the limited success of "Miitomo" in March 2016, Nintendo released mobile versions of "Super Mario Run" (December 2016), "Fire Emblem Heroes" (February 2017), and "Animal Crossing: Pocket Camp" (October 2017) in rapid succession.

These mobile titles saw varying degrees of success. "Super Mario Run" reached 200 million downloads but struggled with monetization due to its one-time purchase model. "Fire Emblem Heroes," with its gacha-style mechanics, became Nintendo's most profitable mobile venture, while "Animal Crossing: Pocket Camp" achieved modest success.

However, Nintendo's mobile pivot faced criticism from long-time fans who expressed concern about the company abandoning its hardware legacy and potentially diluting its franchises with free-to-play mechanics.

Third-Party Relations (2016-2018)

Without the Switch platform to develop for, third-party publishers who had been eyeing the hybrid concept with interest redirected their resources. Some Japanese developers who had planned Switch-exclusive titles, like Square Enix's "Octopath Traveler," shifted development to PlayStation 4 or PC.

Indie developers who would have flourished on the Switch's digital storefront found themselves without a Nintendo platform that matched their needs. The 3DS's limited power and aging architecture weren't suitable for many of the indie titles that would have thrived on the Switch.

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild's Fate (2017)

Perhaps the most significant immediate impact concerned "The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild," which had been in development for both Wii U and the planned Switch. Without the Switch to launch alongside, the game released exclusively on Wii U in March 2017, becoming the system's swan song.

While critically acclaimed, the game's commercial impact was severely limited by the Wii U's small install base. Many gaming enthusiasts who didn't own a Wii U missed experiencing what critics still hailed as a masterpiece. This situation created substantial pressure on Nintendo to either port the game to competing platforms (which they refused to do) or accelerate development of their next hardware to give the game a larger audience.

Consumer and Market Reaction (2016-2018)

Without the Switch's innovation to capture public attention, the gaming landscape of 2017-2018 was dominated by Sony's PlayStation 4 and Microsoft's Xbox One, along with the growing PC gaming market. The absence of Nintendo's hybrid concept left a noticeable gap in the market, particularly for families and casual gamers who had been drawn to Nintendo's previous consoles.

Nintendo's stock, which in our timeline rose dramatically following the Switch's reveal and successful launch, instead remained relatively stagnant through 2017 and early 2018, with investors adopting a "wait and see" approach to the company's hardware future.

Long-term Impact

Nintendo's Hardware Strategy Reimagined (2018-2020)

By mid-2018, with the 3DS platform showing its age despite the hardware refresh, Nintendo finally unveiled its post-Wii U strategy for dedicated gaming hardware. In a surprising announcement at E3 2018, Nintendo revealed a two-pronged approach that would define the company for years to come.

The Nintendo Go (2019)

First, Nintendo announced the "Nintendo Go," a powerful dedicated handheld device set to launch in early 2019. The Go featured a 7-inch 1080p screen, detachable "JoyCon-like" controllers, and processing power comparable to the base PlayStation 4, but in a handheld form factor. The device effectively delivered half of what the Switch offered—an advanced portable gaming experience—but without the TV docking functionality.

The Nintendo Go launched in March 2019 at $249, positioning it between traditional handhelds and home consoles in terms of price. The system's launch titles included "Super Mario Odyssey," "Mario Kart 9," and a port of "The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild" that had been optimized for the new hardware.

The Nintendo Home (2020)

The second part of Nintendo's strategy was the "Nintendo Home," a traditional set-top console revealed in concept form at E3 2018 but not scheduled to launch until holiday 2020. The Nintendo Home was designed to compete more directly with Sony and Microsoft's offerings, featuring significantly more powerful hardware than previous Nintendo consoles while maintaining the company's family-friendly focus.

When the Nintendo Home launched in November 2020 at $399, it offered backward compatibility with Wii U titles (addressing the limited library concern) and introduced a unique feature called "Nintendo Network," which allowed limited cross-play and content sharing between the Home and Go systems, though not the seamless transition that the Switch offered in our timeline.

Fragmented Gaming Ecosystem (2019-2022)

Nintendo's two-system approach created a fragmented ecosystem that presented both challenges and opportunities. Developers needed to create separate versions of games for each platform or choose to target just one, lacking the "develop once, play anywhere" advantage of the Switch.

This fragmentation was most evident in how Nintendo's first-party titles were distributed. Games like "Animal Crossing" and "Pokémon" primarily appeared on the Go, while more graphically intensive titles like "Metroid Prime 4" and a new "F-Zero" became Home exclusives. Some major franchises including "Mario," "Zelda," and "Splatoon" received versions on both platforms, but with significant differences.

Third-party developers, particularly indie studios with limited resources, typically chose to develop for either the Go or Home but rarely both. This created distinct libraries for each system and diluted Nintendo's software advantage.

The Pandemic Effect (2020-2021)

The COVID-19 pandemic, which drove massive growth for gaming generally, affected Nintendo's alternate hardware strategy in complex ways. The portable Nintendo Go saw substantial demand during lockdowns, similar to the Switch in our timeline, but supply chain issues restricted Nintendo's ability to capitalize on this opportunity.

However, without "Animal Crossing: New Horizons" as a singular cultural phenomenon playable on a single universally-owned Nintendo device, the company missed the massive pandemic-driven success this title achieved on the Switch. Instead, the Animal Crossing experience was split between a full version on the Go and a scaled-down version for the Home.

The pandemic also complicated the launch of the Nintendo Home in November 2020, with production and distribution challenges limiting its availability during its crucial first holiday season.

Competitive Landscape Transformation (2019-2023)

Without the Switch redefining the market with its hybrid approach, the traditional console war between Sony and Microsoft continued along familiar lines. Both companies launched their next-generation PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S consoles in late 2020 as they did in our timeline.

However, a significant change emerged in the portable gaming space. Seeing Nintendo's success with the Go and identifying the unfilled niche for hybrid gaming, several companies moved to capitalize:

Valve accelerated development of its Steam Deck, launching in 2021 rather than 2022
Sony, recognizing renewed interest in portable gaming, released a PlayStation Portable successor in 2022 (something they haven't done in our timeline)
Several Android-based gaming handhelds from companies like ASUS, Razer, and Lenovo emerged between 2020-2022, offering Switch-like functionality for PC game streaming and mobile games

By 2023, the portable gaming market had become highly competitive, with Nintendo's Go facing serious challenges from multiple directions—something the dominant Switch largely avoided in our timeline.

Financial and Market Position (2019-2025)

Nintendo's financial performance in this alternate timeline shows a markedly different trajectory than with the Switch. While the company remained profitable, it failed to achieve the record-breaking success seen in our timeline.

By 2025, the combined sales of the Nintendo Go (approximately 48 million units) and Nintendo Home (approximately 18 million units) reached about 66 million units—less than half of the Switch's projected lifetime sales in our timeline. Nintendo's market capitalization, which soared past $85 billion in our timeline, peaked at approximately $45 billion in this alternate reality.

The company maintained its position as a major player in the gaming industry but did not achieve the dominant market position that the Switch enabled. Nintendo's software sales were strong but distributed across two platforms, reducing each title's reach compared to the unified Switch ecosystem.

Gaming Culture and Nintendo's Brand (2019-2025)

Perhaps the most profound long-term impact was on Nintendo's brand perception and position in gaming culture. Without the Switch's revolutionary hybrid approach, Nintendo was increasingly viewed as a company clinging to traditional gaming segments while the industry moved toward more flexible, multi-use platforms.

The inability to play the same games seamlessly across different contexts (TV and handheld) came to be seen as a significant limitation as consumer lifestyles became increasingly fluid. This perception forced Nintendo to accelerate plans for its next generation of hardware, expected to arrive in 2025-2026, with rumors suggesting a belated adoption of the hybrid concept that the Switch pioneered in our timeline.

By 2025 in this alternate timeline, Nintendo remained beloved for its iconic franchises and quality games, but had lost the position of innovative hardware leader that the Switch had secured for it in our world.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games and gaming industry consultant, offers this perspective: "Nintendo's decision to forego the hybrid concept of the Switch represents one of the most consequential 'what-ifs' in gaming history. The company essentially predicted the future with the Switch—that gaming would become increasingly platform-agnostic and contextually flexible. By splitting their audience between two distinct platforms instead, Nintendo maintained their historical separation of handheld and home console markets, but missed the opportunity to define the next evolution of gaming hardware. This alternate path kept Nintendo relevant but diminished what could have been a period of market dominance."

Lisa Cosmas Hanson, founder of Niko Partners and expert on Asian gaming markets, suggests: "The absence of the Switch would have been particularly impactful in markets like China and Southeast Asia, where mobile is the dominant gaming platform and the Switch served as an elegant bridge to console gaming. Without the Switch's portable-but-premium gaming solution, these markets would likely have continued their trajectory toward mobile and cloud gaming solutions, potentially accelerating the decline of dedicated gaming hardware overall. Nintendo's separate handheld strategy with the Go would have seen some success in these regions, but without the innovative hook of the hybrid functionality, it would have faced significant pressure from gaming smartphones and tablets."

Professor James Newman, author and gaming historian at Bath Spa University, provides this historical context: "The Switch represents a fascinating convergence of Nintendo's dual hardware lineages—portable and home console—that had run parallel since the Game Boy launched alongside the NES. In an alternate timeline where these paths remained separate, we would likely see a very different Nintendo today—one that might eventually be forced to choose between these approaches rather than unifying them. The company's heritage of hardware innovation would be significantly diminished without what might be its most elegantly practical innovation. The Switch wasn't just another Nintendo console; it was the culmination of lessons learned through both success and failure across decades of hardware development."