What If The North American Great Plains Had Different Agricultural Practices?

The Actual History

The North American Great Plains—stretching from Texas to Montana and from the Rocky Mountains to the Missouri River—have undergone one of the most dramatic agricultural transformations in human history. For thousands of years, these vast grasslands were managed primarily by Indigenous peoples who employed diverse approaches to land stewardship, including limited cultivation, controlled burning, and harmonizing their practices with the migratory patterns of bison (often called buffalo), a keystone species of the ecosystem.

Indigenous nations like the Pawnee, Arikara, and Mandan developed sophisticated sedentary agricultural systems, particularly in river valleys, growing corn, beans, squash, and sunflowers in polyculture systems. Meanwhile, nomadic Plains tribes like the Lakota, Cheyenne, and Comanche built their societies around following bison herds, occasionally supplementing their diets through trade with farming tribes. These practices maintained the ecological balance of the Plains for millennia.

European colonization fundamentally altered this landscape. Beginning in the 1830s and accelerating after the Civil War, U.S. government policies systematically removed Indigenous peoples from their lands, confined them to reservations, and deliberately decimated bison populations (from an estimated 30-60 million animals to fewer than 1,000 by 1889) as a means of subjugating Indigenous resistance.

The Homestead Act of 1862 encouraged settlement of the Plains by offering 160 acres to any citizen who could "improve" the land. Settlers, encouraged by unusual rainfall patterns and promotional campaigns touting the region's agricultural potential, rapidly converted the prairie to cropland. John Wesley Powell's 1878 warning that the region west of the 100th meridian was too arid for traditional Eastern farming methods went largely unheeded.

The early 20th century saw the wholesale adoption of mechanized agriculture and monocropping across the Plains. During World War I, wheat prices soared, and farmers plowed millions more acres of native grassland. When drought conditions returned in the 1930s, this ecological disruption resulted in the catastrophic Dust Bowl, when wind erosion displaced 2.5 million people and stripped topsoil from approximately 100 million acres.

The post-World War II era brought further intensification through chemical fertilizers, pesticides, large-scale irrigation from the Ogallala Aquifer, and federal policies that encouraged maximum production and consolidation. This industrial approach produced enormous grain surpluses but came with significant costs: declining soil health, aquifer depletion, chemical runoff, loss of biodiversity, and rural depopulation. By 2020, the Ogallala Aquifer had declined by more than 430 million acre-feet, with some regions experiencing water table drops of over 150 feet.

Today's Great Plains are dominated by large-scale production of commodity crops—primarily corn, wheat, and soybeans—along with concentrated animal feeding operations. Monoculture farming prevails, with approximately 95% of the original tallgrass prairie and 70% of mixed-grass prairie converted to other uses. The region faces ongoing challenges including climate change, water scarcity, soil degradation, and economic vulnerability tied to global commodity markets and federal agricultural policies.

The Point of Divergence

What if European settlers had adopted and adapted Indigenous agricultural practices in the Great Plains rather than imposing Eastern farming methods unsuited to the region's ecology? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where the transfer of agricultural knowledge occurred differently during the settlement period, creating a hybrid system that respected the unique environmental conditions of the Plains.

Several plausible mechanisms could have created this divergence:

First, John Wesley Powell's 1878 "Report on the Lands of the Arid Region of the United States" could have been heeded rather than ignored. Powell advocated for watershed-based development and communal management of water resources—approaches more aligned with the ecological reality of the region. In our alternate timeline, Congress accepts Powell's recommendations, establishing land distribution patterns and water rights systems that discourage destructive farming practices.

Second, interactions between settlers and Plains Indigenous peoples could have followed a more collaborative rather than confrontational path. If U.S. policy had not been dominated by removal and confinement, there might have been greater cultural exchange around agricultural knowledge. The sophisticated farming systems of tribes like the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara—who had centuries of experience successfully cultivating crops in the challenging Plains environment—could have provided valuable lessons for newcomers.

Third, the scientific community might have recognized the ecological wisdom in Indigenous land management practices earlier. Botanists and agronomists studying the remarkable fertility and resilience of prairie soils could have connected these qualities to Indigenous stewardship through controlled burning, rotational grazing, and selective cultivation. This scientific validation might have legitimized Indigenous approaches in the eyes of European-American farmers and policymakers.

Finally, early conservation movements could have emerged more successfully in response to the first waves of environmental degradation. Voices like George Perkins Marsh, who warned about human-caused environmental destruction in his 1864 book "Man and Nature," might have gained more traction specifically regarding Plains ecology, creating public support for more sustainable approaches before the massive plow-up of the early 20th century.

In this divergent timeline, these factors combine to create an agricultural system in the Great Plains that incorporates Indigenous wisdom about working with, rather than against, the region's natural patterns—preserving much of the native prairie while sustainably producing food through methods adapted to the local environment.

Immediate Aftermath

Initial Settlement Patterns (1870s-1890s)

Under the influence of Powell's watershed-based development model, the typical 160-acre square homestead grid is abandoned for the Great Plains regions west of the 100th meridian. Instead, settlements form around watersheds with communal access to water resources, creating irregular property boundaries that follow natural contours. Homesteads are larger—often 1,280 acres as Powell recommended—but with the understanding that much of this land would remain native prairie for grazing rather than being converted to cropland.

Cooperative arrangements for water and land management emerge, similar to the later Mormon irrigation cooperatives in Utah but on a larger scale. These institutions promote collective decision-making about resource use, limiting individual actions that might harm the watershed community. Spanish and Mexican acequia systems (community-managed irrigation) influence water management in the southern Plains.

The railroad companies, initially resistant to these changes because they complicate land sales, eventually adapt by promoting "Prairie Farming" methods that align with this new paradigm, seeing the potential for sustainable long-term development that would ensure their future freight business.

Modified Bison Economy (1880s-1900s)

Rather than near-extermination, the government adopts policies that recognize bison as a valuable resource to be managed rather than eliminated. Commercial hunting is regulated, preserving sustainable herds while allowing controlled harvesting. Indigenous communities retain hunting rights in designated areas, maintaining their cultural practices while participating in a regulated commercial market for bison products.

Some forward-thinking ranchers begin experimenting with bison ranching, learning from Indigenous management practices. By 1900, a hybrid system emerges where cattle dominate in more mesic eastern regions while bison increasingly become the preferred livestock in the drier western Plains, managed through techniques adapted from Indigenous practices.

This modified approach delays but doesn't entirely prevent the decline of nomadic Indigenous lifestyles. However, it creates economic opportunities for Indigenous communities to transition to managed bison production while preserving cultural connections to the animal. Treaties recognizing Indigenous hunting territories become the basis for cooperative wildlife management rather than being systematically violated.

Agricultural Practices (1890s-1910s)

A distinct "Plains Agriculture" school of thought emerges, influenced by Indigenous polyculture systems and adapted to the arid environment. Key practices include:

Limited Tillage: Many farmers adopt techniques involving minimal soil disturbance, preserving the deep root systems of native grasses that prevent erosion.
Patch Farming: Instead of plowing entire sections, farmers cultivate smaller patches in lower-lying areas with better moisture retention, leaving uplands in native grass for grazing.
Diverse Crop Selection: Indigenous crops like Jerusalem artichoke, prairie turnip, and amaranth are incorporated alongside traditional European crops, selected for drought tolerance.
Intercropping: Following Indigenous examples, complementary plants are grown together, improving soil health and reducing pest pressure.
Controlled Burning: Settlers learn from Indigenous practices of regular burning to rejuvenate grasslands and control woody encroachment.

Agricultural extension services established after 1900 actively promote these adapted methods, creating demonstration farms that showcase successful integration of Indigenous and European techniques. Agricultural colleges in Plains states develop specialized curricula focused on region-appropriate farming.

Social and Political Developments (1900s-1920s)

The communal aspects of watershed-based development foster a stronger sense of cooperation among Plains settlers. Farmer cooperatives emerge earlier and more robustly than in our timeline, giving agricultural producers more economic leverage. Women play significant roles in these cooperatives, particularly around seed saving and crop diversity, inspired by the traditional roles of women in Indigenous agricultural systems.

Indigenous knowledge becomes valued intellectual property. Several Plains universities establish departments dedicated to Indigenous agricultural science, employing tribal knowledge-keepers as faculty. The Dawes Act still converts some tribal lands to individual allotments, but with greater protection of communal lands designated for traditional practices.

A distinct Plains political identity emerges earlier, characterized by pragmatic environmentalism and skepticism of both eastern industrial capitalism and federal centralization. This "Prairie Populism" has stronger multiracial components than in our timeline, as economic cooperation creates more opportunities for cross-cultural alliance-building.

When drought conditions emerge in the 1910s and 1920s, these communities prove more resilient. While there are still hardships, the maintenance of native grassland buffers, soil conservation practices, and diverse agricultural portfolios prevent the catastrophic soil loss that characterized our timeline.

Long-term Impact

Averted Dust Bowl (1930s)

When severe drought conditions hit the Great Plains in the 1930s, this alternate timeline experiences a significantly mitigated version of the Dust Bowl. With approximately 60% of native prairie still intact, serving as windbreaks and anchoring soil, and widespread adoption of conservation techniques, soil erosion occurs but at manageable levels. Black blizzards still happen during the worst periods, but they're localized events rather than region-wide disasters.

Farm foreclosures and population displacement still occur due to economic depression and drought, but at roughly one-third the rate of our timeline. The demographic collapse of rural communities is less severe, and Indigenous populations maintain more stable numbers throughout the region.

The Roosevelt administration's response focuses on reinforcing existing conservation practices rather than introducing them from scratch. The Civilian Conservation Corps works with tribal experts to implement large-scale prairie restoration where degradation has occurred. The Soil Conservation Service, when established, formally incorporates Indigenous knowledge systems into its institutional framework.

Agricultural Development (1940s-1960s)

The post-World War II Green Revolution unfolds differently in the Plains. While mechanization increases, it follows a different trajectory—specialized equipment is developed for conservation agriculture rather than intensive tillage. Chemical fertilizers and pesticides are introduced more selectively, as the established polyculture systems already provide natural fertilization and pest management benefits.

The Plains become a global center for agroecological innovation. International agricultural students come to study the unique hybrid systems developed in the region. Norman Borlaug and other agricultural scientists still develop higher-yielding crop varieties, but with greater attention to regional adaptation and integration with perennial systems.

Federal farm policies evolve to support these diversified operations rather than encouraging monocropping. Price supports are extended to a wider range of crops, including traditional Indigenous cultivars that have been commercialized. Conservation compliance becomes a cornerstone of agricultural policy decades earlier than in our timeline.

Bison restoration continues steadily, with the continental population reaching several million by the 1960s. A sophisticated industry emerges around sustainable bison products, providing economic opportunities for tribal nations and rural communities. The Plains generate significant ecological research on the beneficial impacts of properly managed grazing on grassland ecosystems.

Water Management (1950s-1980s)

The Ogallala Aquifer is still tapped for irrigation, but at a more sustainable rate. Watershed-based governance structures establish pumping limits early, preventing the dramatic depletion seen in our timeline. Traditional water harvesting techniques adapted from Indigenous and Hispanic traditions—like micro-catchments and check dams—reduce dependence on groundwater.

Large federal dam projects on Plains rivers are scrutinized more critically, with some never being built due to organized resistance from watershed communities and tribes. Those that are constructed incorporate more ecological design principles and respect for Indigenous cultural sites. The Pick-Sloan Plan for Missouri River development is substantially modified to reduce impacts on tribal lands.

Riparian areas are widely protected as ecological corridors, maintaining crucial habitat while improving water quality. Seasonal wetlands, which Plains tribes historically recognized as valuable ecosystems, are preserved rather than drained, providing wildlife habitat and natural water filtration.

Ecological and Climate Resilience (1980s-2025)

By maintaining much of the native prairie, this alternate Great Plains serves as a massive carbon sink, sequestering billions of tons of carbon in deep-rooted perennial systems. This contributes to slightly lower atmospheric CO2 levels globally by 2025, though climate change still progresses.

The region's enhanced ecological integrity makes it more resilient to climate extremes. Drought periods still occur, but the landscape's water retention capacity and soil health provide greater buffering capacity. The Prairie Pothole Region, with more wetlands intact, continues to support robust migratory bird populations despite climate pressures.

Wildlife corridors connecting preserved prairie habitats allow species to adapt to changing conditions by shifting their ranges. Species that faced extinction or severe decline in our timeline—like the black-footed ferret, swift fox, and prairie chicken—maintain healthier populations, though still reduced from pre-European contact levels.

Economic and Cultural Geography (1990s-2025)

The Great Plains of this alternate 2025 has a different demographic profile. Rural population decline still occurs but is less severe, with approximately 30% higher rural population density than our timeline. A more diverse agricultural economy supports more small and medium-sized operations, though consolidation still occurs. The average farm size is smaller, but with greater economic output per acre due to intensive management and value-added production.

Indigenous populations maintain stronger presences in their traditional territories. Tribal colleges and universities have become global leaders in sustainable agricultural science, attracting international research partnerships. Several tribes operate large-scale bison operations that combine commercial production with cultural preservation and ecological restoration.

The region's cultural identity is more distinct and confident, with less of the "flyover country" stigmatization seen in our timeline. A vibrant rural culture emerges from the multicultural mixing of Indigenous, European, Hispanic, and more recent immigrant traditions, particularly evident in regional cuisine that incorporates diverse Plains-adapted foods.

Tourism centered on the region's natural beauty and intact ecosystems forms a significant economic sector, with prairie national parks and tribal-managed wildlife areas drawing visitors seeking experiences in one of the world's most successfully managed large grassland ecosystems.

While industrial agriculture still exists in the region, it operates within a framework that recognizes ecological limits. Precision agriculture technologies are widely adopted but are used to minimize inputs and environmental impacts rather than maximize short-term yields. The Plains become a global model for how traditional knowledge and modern technology can be integrated to create sustainable food systems.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Miranda Yellow Horse, Professor of Indigenous Environmental Studies at Haskell University, offers this perspective: "This alternate timeline isn't simply about adopting specific techniques like polyculture or controlled burning—it's about a fundamentally different relationship with the land. The Plains required humans to adapt to it, not the other way around. Indigenous knowledge systems recognized this, developing sophisticated approaches that worked with natural cycles rather than against them. The tragedy of our actual history is that this generational knowledge was deliberately suppressed just when it was most needed. In the alternate scenario, we see what might have happened if European-American society had approached the Plains with humility and willingness to learn, rather than with the arrogance that led to ecological disaster."

Professor Thomas Hayden, Agricultural Economist at Kansas State University, provides an economic analysis: "What's fascinating about this alternate Great Plains is not that it would produce less food—it might actually produce more when measured across centuries rather than single seasons. The key difference would be in stability and resilience. Our current system produces spectacular yields in good years but is dangerously vulnerable to disruption. The hybrid system in this alternate timeline would show steadier production with lower input costs and fewer catastrophic failures. The economic implications extend beyond agriculture—rural communities would maintain more stable populations and more diverse economies, resulting in stronger regional markets and less dependency on federal support programs. The higher labor requirements of these sophisticated systems would be offset by reduced expenditure on chemical inputs and crisis management."

Dr. Elaine Ramirez, Climate Historian at the University of Colorado, contextualizes the climate implications: "When we examine historical climate records, the 20th century development of the Great Plains occurred during an unusually favorable climate period. Our actual agricultural system was designed without accounting for the region's long history of megadroughts and extreme weather. Indigenous management systems, by contrast, evolved during these challenging periods and incorporated strategies for climatic uncertainty. In our alternate timeline, we see an agricultural system better prepared for the climate volatility we're now experiencing. While this wouldn't prevent climate change, it would create significantly more adaptive capacity. The carbon sequestration benefits of maintained grasslands would be substantial, potentially reducing global atmospheric CO2 by 2-3 ppm by 2025—not enough to solve climate change, but a meaningful contribution alongside other mitigation efforts."