What If The Times Beach Dioxin Contamination Never Occurred?

The Actual History

Times Beach, Missouri, once a vibrant riverside community of approximately 2,000 residents situated 17 miles southwest of St. Louis, became the site of one of America's most severe environmental disasters. The crisis began innocuously in 1972 when the city contracted with waste hauler Russell Bliss to spray oil on unpaved roads to control dust—a common practice in rural communities at the time. For $2,400, Bliss agreed to spray approximately 23 miles of dirt roads in Times Beach with what residents believed was simple waste oil.

Unknown to the town officials, Bliss had been hired by a chemical manufacturer, Northeastern Pharmaceutical and Chemical Company (NEPACCO), to dispose of waste materials from their facility in Verona, Missouri. NEPACCO had produced hexachlorophene, a disinfectant, and in the process generated waste containing extremely high levels of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzodioxin (TCDD), commonly known as dioxin—one of the most toxic compounds ever synthesized. Bliss mixed this dioxin-laden waste with used motor oil and sprayed it throughout Times Beach and at least 26 other sites across eastern Missouri between 1972 and 1976.

The first signs of trouble appeared at Shenandoah Stables in Moscow Mills, Missouri, where Bliss had sprayed the same contaminated oil mixture. Within hours, horses became ill, and within a few days, 62 horses died. Birds dropped from the sky, and cats and dogs in the area also perished. Despite these alarming incidents, the connection to the oil spraying wasn't immediately made, and the practice continued.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began investigating in 1979 after a former employee of NEPACCO informed federal officials about the improper disposal of hazardous waste. By 1982, EPA testing confirmed alarmingly high levels of dioxin in Times Beach's soil—up to 33,000 parts per billion in some areas, far exceeding the 1 part per billion level then considered acceptable.

The true catastrophe for Times Beach came in December 1982 when the Meramec River flooded the town, spreading the dioxin contamination and creating an environmental emergency. On December 23, 1982, the EPA advised residents not to return to their homes. In February 1983, the federal government, under President Ronald Reagan's administration, approved a $33 million buyout of Times Beach. The entire town—homes, businesses, schools, and churches—was purchased and evacuated.

Between 1983 and 1985, all residents were permanently relocated, and Times Beach became a ghost town. In 1985, the EPA designated Times Beach and the other contaminated sites in eastern Missouri as a Superfund site. The cleanup operation was extensive, involving the construction of an incinerator that operated from March 1996 to June 1997, burning more than 265,000 tons of contaminated soil at temperatures exceeding 1,000 degrees Fahrenheit.

The Times Beach disaster had far-reaching implications for environmental policy in the United States. It helped shape the implementation of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), commonly known as Superfund, which had been enacted in 1980. The incident heightened public awareness about the dangers of hazardous waste and strengthened calls for stricter environmental regulations.

Today, the former site of Times Beach houses Route 66 State Park, opened in 1999. A small museum at the park's visitor center tells the story of Times Beach and its environmental tragedy. The disaster remains a powerful case study of environmental contamination and the devastating impact it can have on communities, influencing environmental policy, corporate responsibility, and public health awareness to this day.

The Point of Divergence

What if the Times Beach dioxin contamination never occurred? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where the chain of events leading to one of America's worst environmental disasters was broken, saving a community and potentially altering the course of environmental regulation in the United States.

Several plausible divergences could have prevented the contamination:

First, NEPACCO might have implemented proper waste disposal protocols for the dioxin-laden waste from its hexachlorophene production. In this scenario, corporate responsibility prevails, with NEPACCO executives recognizing the dangers of their waste products and investing in appropriate disposal methods rather than seeking the cheapest option. Perhaps a forward-thinking executive familiar with emerging research on dioxin toxicity insists on incineration at high temperatures—the method eventually used in the cleanup—rather than improper disposal through a waste hauler.

Alternatively, the divergence could have occurred at the regulatory level. Federal or state environmental inspectors might have conducted a routine inspection of NEPACCO's Verona facility in the early 1970s, discovering the improper waste storage before it ever reached Russell Bliss. In this version, the still-young EPA (established in 1970) implements more aggressive early inspection protocols for chemical manufacturers, catching NEPACCO's violations before they could impact Times Beach.

A third possibility centers on Russell Bliss himself. In this scenario, Bliss rejects the contract with NEPACCO upon noticing unusual characteristics of the waste material, or perhaps experiences immediate health effects when handling the chemicals that prompt him to report concerns to authorities. Alternatively, after the initial animal deaths at Shenandoah Stables, investigators might have quickly connected the dots to the sprayed oil and halted all similar operations before Times Beach was ever contaminated.

The most plausible divergence may have been at the local government level. Times Beach officials, perhaps aware of early reports about animal deaths at other Bliss spraying sites, could have decided to invest in paving their roads or using alternative dust control methods instead of contracting with Bliss. A single skeptical town council member demanding more information about the source and safety of the waste oil could have derailed the entire arrangement.

In this alternate timeline, through any of these mechanisms, the roads of Times Beach remain untainted by dioxin, the community continues to develop normally, and the history of American environmental disasters takes a different course.

Immediate Aftermath

A Community Preserved

The most immediate and obvious consequence of avoiding the Times Beach contamination would be the preservation of a vibrant riverside community. In our alternate timeline, the approximately 2,000 residents of Times Beach continue their normal lives through the 1970s and early 1980s without the trauma of evacuation and relocation. The community maintains its character as a working-class riverside town with deep historical roots—originally developed as a summer resort in the 1920s and advertised in the St. Louis Times newspaper (hence its name).

The social fabric of Times Beach remains intact. Neighbors who in our timeline were scattered across different communities continue their relationships and community building. Churches, schools, and local businesses that disappeared with the evacuation instead continue serving as anchors for community life. Family histories remain uninterrupted, with homes passing between generations rather than being demolished.

Different Trajectories for Key Individuals

Russell Bliss, who in our timeline became infamous for his role in the disaster and faced numerous lawsuits, would likely have continued his waste oil business without notoriety. His business practices might have eventually come under scrutiny through other channels, but he would not have become the central figure in an environmental catastrophe.

Similarly, the executives at NEPACCO would have avoided the legal consequences they faced in our timeline. President Edwin Michaels and plant supervisor John Lee, who were eventually charged with illegal disposal of hazardous waste, would have continued their careers without this significant legal entanglement. Without the Times Beach disaster bringing attention to their operations, NEPACCO might have continued its questionable waste disposal practices longer, potentially leading to different environmental issues elsewhere.

Marilyn Leistner, who in our timeline became the last mayor of Times Beach and a prominent advocate for the displaced residents, would have had a completely different life trajectory. Rather than becoming an unexpected environmental activist and spokesperson for a displaced community, she might have continued as a local leader in a developing Times Beach community.

Regional Economic Effects

The economic trajectory of Jefferson County, Missouri would have differed significantly. Without the stigma of containing a notorious toxic waste site, the region might have experienced more consistent growth through the 1980s and 1990s. Property values in and around Times Beach, which plummeted after the contamination was discovered, would instead have likely appreciated normally along with the broader St. Louis metropolitan area.

The $33 million federal buyout of Times Beach that occurred in our timeline would never have happened, leaving these funds available for other federal priorities. The additional millions spent on cleanup and remediation—ultimately totaling over $110 million by the time the site was cleared in 1997—would similarly have been allocated elsewhere.

Initial Environmental Regulatory Response

Without the Times Beach disaster serving as a high-profile example of toxic contamination, the implementation and enforcement of the recently-passed CERCLA (Superfund) legislation would have taken a different course in the early 1980s. The disaster occurred at a critical moment, just two years after CERCLA's passage, and became a test case for the new law.

In this alternate timeline, the EPA would have lacked this dramatic case study to justify aggressive implementation of Superfund. The Reagan administration, which was generally skeptical of environmental regulation, might have been more successful in limiting the scope and funding of the Superfund program without the Times Beach disaster highlighting the need for federal intervention in environmental emergencies.

Anne Gorsuch Burford, Reagan's controversial first EPA Administrator who resigned in 1983 amid accusations of mismanaging the Superfund program (with Times Beach being a central issue), might have faced less scrutiny and potentially remained in her position longer. This could have resulted in a more industry-friendly EPA throughout the 1980s, with slower implementation of various environmental protection measures.

Public Health Awareness

The Times Beach disaster significantly raised public awareness about dioxin specifically and chemical contamination more broadly. In our timeline, media coverage of the evacuation of an entire town created a watershed moment in public understanding of how industrial chemicals could impact communities.

Without this high-profile case, public knowledge and concern about dioxin would have developed more slowly. The scientific and regulatory debate about dioxin's toxicity would have evolved differently, potentially with less public pressure for strict standards. The EPA's eventual reassessment of dioxin that began in the early 1990s might have occurred later or with less rigorous standards.

Local physicians and public health officials in eastern Missouri, who in our timeline began investigating unusual patterns of illness potentially linked to dioxin exposure, would not have undertaken these studies. The epidemiological understanding of dioxin's health effects might have developed more slowly as a result.

Long-term Impact

Development of Environmental Law and Regulation

The absence of the Times Beach disaster would have significantly altered the evolution of environmental law and regulation in the United States. The disaster occurred during a critical period when many of America's cornerstone environmental laws were still in their early implementation phases.

Superfund Program Evolution

Without Times Beach serving as a dramatic example of the need for federal intervention in environmental disasters, the Superfund program might have developed differently:

Reduced Funding and Scope: The Reagan administration, which attempted to limit environmental regulation across the board, might have been more successful in restricting Superfund's budget without the public attention generated by Times Beach. The program, which received $1.6 billion in its initial five-year authorization, might have seen substantially lower reauthorization levels in 1986.
Different Prioritization System: The National Priorities List (NPL), which ranks contaminated sites for cleanup, was significantly influenced by the Times Beach experience. Without this case study, the EPA might have developed different criteria for site prioritization, potentially focusing more on groundwater contamination or urban industrial sites rather than soil contamination in rural areas.
Delayed Hazardous Waste Taxes: The taxes on petroleum and chemical industries that funded Superfund faced significant opposition from industry. Without the Times Beach disaster demonstrating the consequences of improper chemical disposal, these taxes might have been reduced or eliminated earlier than they were in our timeline (where they expired in 1995).

Evolution of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA)

RCRA, which governs the management of hazardous waste from "cradle to grave," was still being implemented when the Times Beach disaster occurred. Without this dramatic example:

Less Stringent Waste Tracking: The strict cradle-to-grave manifest system for tracking hazardous waste might have been implemented more loosely or with more exemptions.
Different Used Oil Regulations: The specific regulations governing used oil disposal, which were influenced by the Times Beach incident, might have taken a different form, potentially with fewer restrictions on the recycling and reuse of waste oils.
Delayed Small Quantity Generator Rules: Regulations for small quantity generators of hazardous waste, finalized in 1986 partly in response to incidents like Times Beach, might have been delayed or made less stringent.

Community Development and Regional Growth

The absence of contamination would have allowed Times Beach to develop along a trajectory similar to other communities in the St. Louis metropolitan area:

Times Beach Urban Development

Riverside Development: Given its location along the Meramec River just outside St. Louis, Times Beach might have evolved into a more desirable suburban community as the St. Louis metro area expanded. The riverside location, which proved disastrous during the 1982 flood that spread contamination, could instead have become an asset for recreation and riverside development.
Highway Corridor Growth: With its proximity to Interstate 44 and historic Route 66, Times Beach was well-positioned for commercial development along these transportation corridors. Without the contamination, it might have seen significant growth in service industries, hotels, and retail establishments catering to interstate travelers.
Potential Gentrification: As with many formerly working-class communities near major metropolitan areas, Times Beach might have experienced gentrification in the 1990s and 2000s, with higher-income residents moving in and property values rising accordingly.

Regional Perception and Development

Jefferson County Growth: Without the environmental stigma, Jefferson County might have seen more consistent population and economic growth throughout the 1980s and 1990s. In our timeline, the county's development was affected by its association with the Times Beach disaster.
Tourism Impact: The Route 66 corridor, which runs through the former Times Beach area, has become a focus of heritage tourism. In this alternate timeline, Times Beach might have capitalized on its Route 66 connection differently, perhaps becoming a thriving stop for Route 66 enthusiasts rather than a cautionary environmental tale.

Scientific and Medical Understanding

The Times Beach disaster spurred significant research into dioxin and its effects. Without this catalyst:

Dioxin Research Trajectory

Delayed Toxicity Assessment: The EPA's comprehensive reassessment of dioxin toxicity, which began in 1991 and continued for years, might have started later or proceeded with less urgency without the Times Beach case highlighting the need for better understanding.
Different Exposure Standards: The acceptable exposure levels for dioxin might have been set differently. In our timeline, acceptable soil concentrations were repeatedly revised downward as more was learned about dioxin toxicity, partly in response to the Times Beach experience.
Alternative Research Priorities: Without Times Beach directing attention specifically to dioxin in soil, environmental toxicology research might have focused more on other contaminants or exposure pathways.

Public Health Approaches

Environmental Health Tracking: The development of systems to track environmental exposures and health outcomes might have evolved differently. The Times Beach incident contributed to the recognition that better systems were needed to connect environmental contamination with health effects in communities.
Community Health Studies: The methodologies for studying health impacts in contaminated communities were significantly influenced by the Times Beach experience. Without this case study, different approaches might have dominated the field.

Political and Cultural Impact by 2025

By our present day of 2025, the absence of the Times Beach disaster would have created a significantly different landscape:

Environmental Movement Evolution

Different Narrative: The environmental movement's narrative about corporate responsibility and government oversight would lack one of its most powerful examples. Times Beach served as a compelling story that environmentalists could point to when arguing for stronger regulations.
Focus on Climate vs. Toxics: Without high-profile toxic contamination cases like Times Beach in the 1980s, the environmental movement might have pivoted more quickly toward climate change as its central focus, potentially accelerating climate awareness but reducing emphasis on chemical contamination issues.

Corporate Practices and Responsibility

Delayed Corporate Accountability: Without the object lesson of NEPACCO and Russell Bliss, corporate awareness of liability for improper waste disposal might have developed more slowly. The Times Beach case made clear that companies could face massive financial consequences for improper waste handling.
Different Industry Self-Regulation: Chemical industry self-regulation initiatives, some of which developed in response to disasters like Times Beach, might have taken different forms or emerged later.

Missouri Political Landscape

Environmental Politics: Missouri politics around environmental issues might have evolved differently without the Times Beach experience showing Missourians the potential consequences of lax environmental enforcement.
Trust in Government: The Times Beach disaster affected public trust in both corporate and governmental institutions in Missouri. In this alternate timeline, different factors would have shaped public trust in these institutions.

Environmental Justice Movement

Different Catalyst Cases: The environmental justice movement, which highlights the disproportionate impact of pollution on disadvantaged communities, would have developed around different catalyst cases. Times Beach, though not primarily a minority community, contributed to awareness that working-class communities often bear the brunt of environmental contamination.
Alternative Frameworks: Without Times Beach as a reference point, the frameworks for understanding and addressing environmental injustice might have been constructed differently, perhaps with more focus on urban industrial contamination rather than rural toxic waste.

By 2025 in our alternate timeline, Times Beach would exist as a normal suburban community rather than a state park built on the site of an environmental disaster. Its name would not appear in environmental science textbooks, and the residents who in our timeline were dispersed across Missouri would instead form a community with multi-generational ties to the riverside town—all because waste from a chemical factory never made its way onto its dusty streets.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Claudia Martinez, Professor of Environmental Policy at Georgetown University, offers this perspective: "The Times Beach disaster created a focusing event that accelerated the implementation of Superfund at a critical moment. Without this dramatic example occurring early in the Reagan administration, I believe we would have seen a significant weakening of environmental enforcement throughout the 1980s. The visceral image of an entire American town being purchased and demolished due to toxic contamination created political constraints that prevented the wholesale dismantling of environmental programs. In an alternate timeline without Times Beach, I suspect we would have seen a much slower development of hazardous waste regulations, with the robust framework we have today potentially delayed by 10-15 years."

Robert Harrington, Former Regional EPA Administrator and environmental consultant, provides a different analysis: "Times Beach, while tragic, may have actually distorted our approach to environmental remediation for decades. The focus on dioxin contamination in soil—which represents just one pathway of exposure—diverted substantial resources from what might have been more impactful interventions addressing air and water pollution affecting larger populations. Without Times Beach dominating the early Superfund narrative, we might have developed a more balanced, risk-based approach to environmental protection sooner. By 2025 in an alternate timeline, I believe we might actually have remediated more sites and protected more people, albeit with less dramatic interventions than the complete evacuation and demolition of a town."

Dr. Maria Johnson, Environmental Health Historian at the University of Missouri, considers the local impact: "The evacuation of Times Beach severed community ties that had existed for generations. In studying similar communities that narrowly avoided environmental evacuation, I've observed how differently they develop. Without the Times Beach disaster, we would see a community that maintained its historical continuity while gradually evolving with the St. Louis metropolitan area. These working-class riverside communities often develop distinctive cultural characteristics when allowed to evolve naturally. The disaster not only dispersed residents physically but erased what might have become a culturally significant community. Moreover, the psychological impact on former residents who in our timeline still gather for reunions decades later would never have occurred—there would be no 'Times Beach diaspora' maintaining memories of a lost hometown."