What If The Watergate Scandal Never Happened?

The Actual History

The Watergate scandal stands as one of the most significant political controversies in American history, ultimately leading to the first and only presidential resignation in the United States. The saga began on June 17, 1972, when five burglars were arrested for breaking into the Democratic National Committee headquarters at the Watergate complex in Washington, D.C. These men were connected to President Richard Nixon's re-election campaign, specifically the Committee to Re-elect the President (CREEP).

Initially, the break-in received limited attention. Nixon, who had been unaware of the burglary plans beforehand, participated in efforts to cover up the administration's involvement. The cover-up included hush money payments to the burglars, attempts to have the CIA block the FBI's investigation, and the destruction of evidence. Despite these efforts, Nixon won a landslide re-election victory in November 1972, defeating Democratic candidate George McGovern by carrying 49 states.

The unraveling began in early 1973. In January, the Watergate burglars went on trial, with burglar James McCord later writing a letter to Judge John Sirica alleging a broader conspiracy and perjury. In April, Nixon's senior White House staff members H.R. Haldeman, John Ehrlichman, and Attorney General Richard Kleindienst resigned, while White House Counsel John Dean was fired. That same month, the Senate established the Select Committee on Presidential Campaign Activities (the "Watergate Committee") chaired by Senator Sam Ervin.

A pivotal revelation came in July 1973 when former White House aide Alexander Butterfield disclosed the existence of a secret recording system in the Oval Office. This led to a constitutional showdown over access to the tapes, which Nixon refused to release, citing executive privilege. In October 1973, in the "Saturday Night Massacre," Nixon ordered the firing of Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox, prompting the resignations of Attorney General Elliot Richardson and Deputy Attorney General William Ruckelshaus.

The Supreme Court unanimously ruled in United States v. Nixon (July 1974) that Nixon had to surrender the tapes. The released recordings contained the smoking gun — evidence that Nixon had participated in the cover-up from its earliest stages. With impeachment proceedings underway and Republican support collapsing, Nixon resigned on August 9, 1974. His successor, Gerald Ford, pardoned Nixon a month later, a controversial decision that may have cost Ford the 1976 election.

The Watergate scandal had profound impacts on American politics and culture. It generated widespread distrust in government institutions, strengthened the role of investigative journalism, led to significant campaign finance and ethics reforms, and established important legal precedents about the limits of executive power. In the years following, the suffix "-gate" became attached to virtually every political scandal, cementing Watergate's status as the archetypal American political scandal against which all others are measured.

The Point of Divergence

What if the Watergate scandal never happened? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where the break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters—the incident that sparked the entire affair—never took place, allowing Richard Nixon's presidency to continue unimpeded by what would have been the most significant political scandal of the 20th century.

There are several plausible ways this divergence could have occurred:

First, G. Gordon Liddy's original intelligence-gathering plan, code-named "Operation Gemstone," was initially rejected as too extreme and expensive by Attorney General John Mitchell. In our timeline, a scaled-down version was eventually approved. In this alternate timeline, the entire operation could have been permanently shelved after its initial rejection, with campaign officials deciding the potential risks outweighed any benefits.

Alternatively, White House Counsel John Dean, who in our timeline became a key witness against Nixon, might have exercised more influence to prevent the operation. Dean later claimed he had warned that such activities were "not worth the risk." In this alternate timeline, his cautionary stance could have prevailed.

A third possibility involves security chief James McCord. In our timeline, McCord led the burglary team that was caught. If McCord had conducted more thorough counter-surveillance before the break-in and detected the plainclothes police officer, Frank Wills, he might have aborted the mission. Or perhaps McCord himself could have been replaced by someone more careful who would have avoided the amateur mistakes that led to their capture.

The most straightforward divergence simply involves the Watergate security guard, Frank Wills. In our timeline, Wills noticed tape placed over door latches during his rounds and called the police. In this alternate scenario, Wills might have missed the tape, been distracted, or even been absent that night due to illness or scheduling changes, allowing the burglars to complete their mission undetected.

Regardless of the specific mechanism, the absence of the Watergate break-in—or its successful completion without detection—would have removed the thread that, when pulled, ultimately unraveled Nixon's presidency. Without this catalyzing event, the broader pattern of illegal activities undertaken by Nixon's administration (including the earlier break-in at Daniel Ellsberg's psychiatrist's office, illegal wiretapping, and the "enemies list") might have remained hidden from public view during his time in office.

Immediate Aftermath

The Remainder of Nixon's Second Term

Without the Watergate scandal dominating the news cycle and consuming the administration's focus, Nixon's second term would have progressed quite differently:

Domestic Policy Initiatives: Nixon's ambitious domestic agenda would have faced fewer obstacles. In our timeline, Watergate effectively paralyzed much of Nixon's domestic policy agenda during his second term. In this alternate timeline, Nixon could have more vigorously pursued his plans for comprehensive healthcare reform (which ironically resembled aspects of what would later be called "Obamacare"), welfare reform, and the Family Assistance Plan which proposed a guaranteed minimum income for American families.

Environmental Policy Continuation: Nixon's surprisingly progressive environmental legacy, which in our timeline included the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency, the Clean Air Act, and the Endangered Species Act, might have expanded further. Additional environmental protections and regulations might have been implemented with a Republican president championing them, potentially altering the partisan alignment on environmental issues for generations.

Economic Crisis Management: The 1973-1974 oil crisis and resulting economic recession would still have occurred, but Nixon's response might have been more effective without the distractions of Watergate. His wage and price controls, implemented in phases since 1971, would have continued evolving as economic policy tools. Without Watergate undermining his authority, Nixon might have navigated the economic challenges with greater political capital, potentially implementing different approaches to stagflation than those chosen by Ford.

Foreign Policy Developments

Nixon's and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger's foreign policy, already their administration's strongest suit, would have continued to define the presidency:

Continued Détente with the Soviet Union: The policy of détente, or relaxation of tensions with the Soviet Union, would have progressed more smoothly. The Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) might have advanced beyond the initial agreements, potentially leading to more comprehensive arms control measures earlier than occurred in our timeline.

Deeper Engagement with China: The historic opening to China, begun in 1972, would have expanded. Additional diplomatic, cultural, and economic ties might have developed more rapidly, potentially accelerating China's integration into the global economy by years or even a decade.

Vietnam Peace Settlement: The Paris Peace Accords, signed in January 1973, ended direct U.S. involvement in Vietnam. In our timeline, as Watergate weakened Nixon, North Vietnam became bolder in violating the accords. In this alternate timeline, a non-scandal-plagued Nixon might have been more credible in threatening renewed U.S. intervention or providing more substantial support to South Vietnam, potentially delaying (though likely not preventing) its eventual fall.

Middle East Diplomacy: Following the Yom Kippur War of October 1973, Nixon and Kissinger engaged in "shuttle diplomacy" to reduce tensions. Without Watergate distractions, their efforts in this region might have been more sustained and effective, potentially establishing different parameters for Arab-Israeli relations.

Political Landscape and the 1976 Election

Republican Party Strength: The Republican Party would have avoided the devastating electoral consequences of Watergate. In our timeline, the 1974 midterm elections were a disaster for Republicans, who lost 49 House seats and 5 Senate seats. In this alternate timeline, while some midterm losses would be normal for a president's party, they would be far less severe, leaving Republicans in a much stronger congressional position.

Democratic Party Strategy: Without Watergate providing an easy target, Democrats would have needed to develop different strategies to counter Nixon's popularity. Their 1976 presidential nomination process might not have favored an outsider like Jimmy Carter, whose campaign heavily emphasized honesty and integrity in direct response to Watergate. Instead, more established Democratic figures like Senator Ted Kennedy, Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson, or Senator Edmund Muskie might have had better chances at securing the nomination.

The 1976 Presidential Election: With no resignation, no pardon controversy, and Republicans less damaged by scandal, the 1976 election would have featured different candidates and issues. If the Republican nominee (possibly Ford if Nixon endorsed him, or perhaps someone like Nelson Rockefeller) managed to take credit for economic recovery and foreign policy successes while distancing themselves from any economic hardships, they would have stood a strong chance of victory, potentially extending Republican control of the White House beyond the 1976 election.

Media and Institutional Changes

The Press: Without Watergate, the Washington Post's Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein would never have become household names or symbols of investigative journalism. The surge in journalism school enrollments and the era's emphasis on investigative reporting might never have occurred with the same intensity. While American journalism would still have evolved post-Vietnam, it would have lacked the specific heroic narrative provided by Woodward and Bernstein's Watergate reporting.

Congressional Oversight: The significant post-Watergate reforms that enhanced congressional oversight of the executive branch, including the strengthened Federal Election Commission, the Ethics in Government Act, and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, would either not have been enacted or would have taken different forms. Congress would have had less incentive and public support to aggressively check presidential power.

Long-term Impact

Evolution of Executive Power

Unchecked Expansion of Presidential Authority

In our timeline, Watergate served as a crucial check on the expansion of presidential power that had been accelerating since the New Deal and especially during the Cold War. Without this pivotal moment of accountability:

The "Imperial Presidency": The concept of the "imperial presidency," a term coined by historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr., would have continued developing without the restraining influence of Watergate. Presidential claims of executive privilege, national security exemptions, and unilateral war powers would have encountered fewer judicial and congressional challenges.
Executive Privilege Doctrine: Without the Supreme Court's ruling in United States v. Nixon limiting executive privilege, this presidential power would have remained more expansive and less defined. Future presidents could have more successfully shielded their communications and actions from congressional and judicial scrutiny.
War Powers: The War Powers Resolution of 1973, passed over Nixon's veto as congressional assertiveness grew during Watergate, might never have been enacted or would have been significantly weaker. This would have left presidents with greater latitude to deploy military forces without congressional approval.

Intelligence Community Oversight

The Church Committee investigations of 1975-76, which exposed decades of intelligence community abuses and led to major reforms, might never have occurred without the post-Watergate atmosphere of governmental scrutiny:

Continued Domestic Surveillance: Programs like the FBI's COINTELPRO and the CIA's Operation CHAOS, which involved surveillance of American citizens, might have continued longer or been replaced with similar programs rather than being exposed and reformed.
Different Intelligence Oversight Framework: The establishment of permanent intelligence committees in Congress and stricter rules for intelligence operations would likely have been delayed or taken different forms, potentially leading to a more powerful and less accountable intelligence apparatus into the 21st century.

Impact on American Political Culture

Trust in Government

One of Watergate's most profound legacies was its effect on public trust in government institutions:

Higher Baseline Trust: Without Watergate, public trust in government, already declining due to the Vietnam War and other factors, would have stabilized at a higher level. The dramatic collapse in trust that occurred from 1972-1974 would have been avoided, potentially preserving a more functional relationship between citizens and their government.
Political Cynicism: The deep cynicism about political leaders and institutions that Watergate cemented in American culture might have developed more gradually or differently. The assumption that politicians are corrupt or dishonest might not have become as deeply ingrained in the American psyche.

Media and Political Accountability

The relationship between the press and government would have evolved differently:

Less Adversarial Press: Without the heroic archetypal narrative of Woodward and Bernstein bringing down a corrupt president, journalism might have maintained a somewhat less adversarial relationship with government, particularly the presidency.
Different Investigative Priorities: The massive investment in investigative reporting that followed Watergate might have been directed elsewhere or never materialized to the same degree. Different types of political coverage and priorities might have emerged.
Political Scandal Coverage: Without Watergate establishing the template, political scandals might be covered differently in the media. The "-gate" suffix that has been attached to virtually every political controversy since the 1970s would never have entered our lexicon.

Political Party Development

The trajectories of both major parties would have been substantially altered:

Republican Party Evolution

Delayed Conservative Revolution: The post-Watergate Republican collapse cleared the way for the ascendancy of the conservative wing of the Republican Party, culminating in Ronald Reagan's 1980 election. Without Watergate, the moderate Republican establishment represented by figures like Nixon might have maintained control of the party longer, potentially delaying or altering the conservative revolution.
Different Nixon Legacy: Instead of being remembered primarily for scandal and disgrace, Nixon would be evaluated based on his policy achievements. His creation of the EPA, opening to China, détente with the Soviet Union, and domestic policy innovations would likely form the core of his historical legacy rather than Watergate, potentially making "Nixonian" a less pejorative term in American politics.

Democratic Party Development

Different Reform Movements: The post-Watergate reforms within the Democratic Party, which emphasized transparency and grassroots participation, might have taken different forms or been less urgent without the moral imperative provided by Watergate.
Alternative Coalition Building: Without Watergate providing a unifying theme of governmental ethics and reform, Democrats might have needed to build different electoral coalitions based more heavily on economic or foreign policy positions.

Global and Geopolitical Ripple Effects

The absence of Watergate would have reverberated throughout international relations during a critical period of the Cold War:

Cold War Trajectory

Détente Continuation: Nixon's policy of détente with the Soviet Union faced increasing criticism from the right wing of the Republican Party in our timeline. A Nixon unburdened by scandal might have been able to defend and extend this policy more effectively, potentially leading to earlier or more substantial arms control agreements.
China Relations Acceleration: The normalization of relations with China, begun dramatically with Nixon's 1972 visit, might have progressed more rapidly without the distraction and disruption of Watergate, potentially bringing forward economic and diplomatic developments that in our timeline took decades.

Middle East Developments

Arab-Israeli Peace Process: Kissinger's shuttle diplomacy following the 1973 Yom Kippur War laid groundwork for later peace efforts. A Nixon administration maintaining its full diplomatic momentum might have achieved breakthroughs sooner or created different parameters for Arab-Israeli negotiations.
Iran Policy: The Shah of Iran was a key U.S. ally whose fall in 1979 dramatically altered Middle Eastern geopolitics. A more stable U.S. foreign policy approach through the mid-1970s might have influenced how the U.S. responded to growing instability in Iran, potentially altering the trajectory of the Iranian Revolution or the American response to it.

Constitutional and Legal Legacy

The legal precedents established during Watergate significantly shaped American constitutional understanding:

Executive Privilege Jurisprudence: Without United States v. Nixon establishing limits on executive privilege, this presidential power would remain less clearly defined, likely resulting in broader presidential latitude to withhold information from Congress and the courts.
Special Prosecutor Framework: The concept of the independent counsel or special prosecutor, which evolved directly from the Watergate experience, might never have developed in the same way. Investigations of executive branch misconduct would follow different protocols and face different constraints.
Campaign Finance Law: The Federal Election Campaign Act Amendments of 1974, a direct response to Watergate, dramatically changed campaign finance regulation. Without this catalyst, money in politics might have followed a different regulatory trajectory, potentially leaving fewer restrictions on campaign contributions and expenditures.

Present-Day Implications (2025)

By our present day, the cumulative effects of these alternate historical developments would be profound:

Different Presidential Accountability Standards: Without Watergate establishing a modern template for presidential accountability, the impeachment proceedings against subsequent presidents (Clinton, Trump) would have operated with different historical precedents and possibly different thresholds for what constitutes impeachable conduct.
Intelligence and Security State: The post-9/11 expansion of surveillance and executive authority might have encountered fewer legal and cultural obstacles in a world where Watergate never prompted the intelligence reforms and skepticism of the 1970s.
Political Discourse: The fundamental character of American political discourse, which in our timeline is marked by deep cynicism about government motives and intense partisan suspicion, might maintain a different tone without the watershed moment that Watergate represented for political trust.
Journalistic Approach: Investigative journalism and the media's approach to covering political scandals would likely operate differently, perhaps with less emphasis on finding "smoking guns" and exposing cover-ups—the narrative framework established by Watergate reporting.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Jennifer Mercieca, Professor of Presidential Rhetoric and Political Communication at Georgetown University, offers this perspective: "Nixon's presidency without Watergate would likely be remembered for its remarkable duality: progressive domestic policies paired with pragmatic, sometimes ruthless foreign policy realism. The absence of Watergate would fundamentally alter our understanding of executive power limits. The guardrails established through that constitutional crisis—the precedents about executive privilege, the strengthened role of congressional oversight, the legitimization of journalistic scrutiny—might never have developed. Our contemporary expectations about presidential accountability would be unrecognizably different. Nixon might be viewed as one of America's most consequential presidents rather than its most disgraced."

Dr. Timothy Naftali, former director of the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum, suggests: "Without Watergate, we would likely see a much more powerful presidency today. The post-Watergate reforms created a framework of accountability that, while imperfect, established important checks on executive authority. In this alternate timeline, I believe we would see a presidency with fewer legal constraints, particularly regarding war powers and national security claims. Nixon's foreign policy achievements would dominate his legacy, particularly the opening to China and détente with the Soviet Union, which might have progressed further without the administration's energy being consumed by scandal. However, the darker elements of Nixon's governance—the enemies list, the use of government agencies against political opponents, the ethnic slurs and paranoia revealed in the tapes—might have remained hidden for decades, perhaps only emerging in the distant future when his private recordings eventually became public."

Professor Julian Zelizer, political historian at Princeton University, observes: "The absence of Watergate would likely mean significantly higher baseline trust in government institutions today. The sharp decline in public confidence that occurred in the mid-1970s represented a turning point from which American politics has never fully recovered. Without that traumatic national experience, partisan differences would certainly remain vigorous, but the fundamental assumption that government is corrupt, dishonest, and untrustworthy might not be so deeply embedded in our political culture. Republican Party development would likely have followed a different trajectory as well. The post-Watergate chaos created openings for the ascendant conservative movement to gain control. Without that disruption, the moderate Republican establishment might have maintained influence longer, potentially delaying or moderating the Reagan Revolution and all that followed from it."