What If The Yemen Civil War Was Prevented?

The Actual History

Yemen's civil war emerged as one of the 21st century's most devastating humanitarian disasters, with roots stretching back to the country's troubled unification and the 2011 Arab Spring. To understand how this catastrophic conflict began, we must examine several critical precursors and the cascade of events that followed.

Yemen had existed as two separate entities—North Yemen and South Yemen—until unification in 1990. This merger was never fully resolved, with southern separatist sentiments persisting due to political marginalization and economic grievances. Additionally, the country faced challenges from the Houthi movement, a Zaidi Shia group from northern Yemen that had engaged in six rounds of armed conflict with the government between 2004 and 2010.

The Arab Spring of 2011 catalyzed significant changes across the Middle East, and Yemen was no exception. Mass protests against President Ali Abdullah Saleh's 33-year rule led to a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-brokered transition agreement. This forced Saleh to transfer power to his vice president, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, in February 2012. This transition was meant to be Yemen's pathway to political reform and stability.

A National Dialogue Conference (NDC) was convened from March 2013 to January 2014, bringing together diverse political factions to chart Yemen's future. However, several critical issues remained unresolved, particularly those concerning the Houthis and southern separatists. The proposed federal division of Yemen into six regions was rejected by both groups.

Taking advantage of widespread dissatisfaction with the Hadi government's economic policies and perceived corruption, the Houthis—tactically allied with their former enemy, ex-president Saleh—expanded from their northern stronghold of Saada. In September 2014, they seized control of Yemen's capital, Sanaa. By January 2015, they had placed President Hadi under house arrest, leading to his resignation and subsequent flight to Aden, where he rescinded his resignation.

The conflict escalated dramatically when, in March 2015, a Saudi-led coalition launched a military intervention with the stated aim of restoring Hadi's government. This internationalized the conflict, with Saudi Arabia and its allies supporting the internationally recognized government, while Iran provided political and allegedly military support to the Houthis.

What followed was a devastating war characterized by shifting frontlines, fragmentation of political alliances, and splits within seemingly unified factions. The Saudi-led coalition imposed a naval blockade and conducted thousands of airstrikes, many hitting civilian infrastructure. The Houthis responded with missile and drone strikes against Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

By 2022, the United Nations estimated that the conflict had directly killed more than 150,000 people, with hundreds of thousands more dying from indirect causes such as famine, disease, and lack of healthcare. Over 4 million people were internally displaced, and approximately 24 million—80% of Yemen's population—required humanitarian assistance, creating what the UN described as the world's worst humanitarian crisis.

Multiple peace initiatives failed to resolve the conflict. The Stockholm Agreement (2018) prevented a catastrophic battle for the port city of Hodeidah but didn't address the broader conflict. The Riyadh Agreement (2019) attempted to resolve tensions between the Hadi government and southern separatists but was never fully implemented. A nationwide truce in April 2022 temporarily reduced hostilities but expired six months later without extension.

By 2025, despite various diplomatic efforts, Yemen remains fractured, with Houthis controlling the northwest including Sanaa, various other factions holding different territories, and continued suffering for the Yemeni population amid economic collapse, disease outbreaks, and persistent food insecurity.

The Point of Divergence

What if the Yemen Civil War had been prevented in 2014? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where a combination of more effective diplomacy, greater international attention, and key domestic compromises averted Yemen's descent into devastating conflict.

The critical point of divergence occurs in September 2014, when the Houthis were on the verge of taking control of Sanaa. In our timeline, the seizure of the capital marked a point of no return that eventually led to full-scale civil war and Saudi intervention. However, in this alternate history, several plausible developments could have prevented this crucial escalation:

One possibility is that the United Nations Special Envoy to Yemen, Jamal Benomar, successfully brokered a more comprehensive power-sharing agreement between President Hadi and the Houthis. This agreement would have addressed the Houthis' core grievances about political representation and the federal division plan, while maintaining the internationally recognized government's authority. In our actual timeline, Benomar's efforts were undermined by lack of international support and domestic political will, but a more concerted diplomatic push might have succeeded.

Alternatively, key regional powers could have played more constructive roles. Saudi Arabia, recognizing the potential for a catastrophic war on its southern border, might have used its considerable influence to pressure Hadi into making concessions to the Houthis while offering economic incentives for stability. Simultaneously, Iran could have been persuaded through back-channel diplomacy to limit its support for Houthi expansionism in exchange for recognition of its legitimate regional concerns.

A third possibility involves the actions of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, whose alliance with the Houthis (his former enemies) was crucial to their military success. In this alternate timeline, international pressure—perhaps including targeted sanctions threats and asset freezes—convinces Saleh not to align with the Houthis, significantly limiting their military capabilities and political reach.

The most likely scenario involves elements of all three: enhanced UN-led mediation backed by coordinated regional pressure, resulting in a peace agreement that:

Established a genuinely inclusive unity government
Revised the federal division plan to address Houthi and southern concerns
Created a phased disarmament program with international monitoring
Provided economic relief packages to address immediate humanitarian needs

This alternate history hinges on the international community recognizing the warning signs of impending disaster in Yemen and acting decisively before the point of no return—something that, tragically, did not occur in our actual timeline.

Immediate Aftermath

Political Stabilization and Governance Reforms

The immediate consequence of the successful peace agreement would have been a dramatic reconfiguration of Yemen's political landscape. The new unity government, formed in late 2014, would have included representation from across Yemen's political spectrum—the General People's Congress (GPC), Islah Party, Houthis, Southern Movement, and smaller parties.

President Hadi, though remaining as the titular head of state, would have seen his powers significantly constrained by a newly formed presidential council that included Houthi representatives and southern leaders. This arrangement, while fragile, would have created a formal mechanism for resolving disputes that previously led to armed confrontation.

The agreement would have mandated significant governance reforms, addressing a major driver of the conflict:

Decentralization of power, with greater authority devolved to governorates
Anti-corruption measures, including an independent commission with international advisory support
Civil service reforms to ensure more equitable regional representation
Restoration of fuel subsidies that had been cut in July 2014, which had sparked widespread protests

Ahmed Bin Mubarak, a respected technocrat who in our timeline was briefly kidnapped by the Houthis, might have emerged as a compromise prime minister, tasked with implementing reforms while navigating the competing interests within the unity government.

Security Sector Transformation

The peace agreement would have necessitated immediate security arrangements to prevent conflict:

A joint military committee comprising representatives from the national army, Houthi forces, and southern military units would oversee security in major cities
International monitors, likely from neutral nations acceptable to all parties, would verify compliance with disarmament provisions
A phased integration plan would begin absorbing militia fighters into a restructured national military or civilian employment programs
Border security would be enhanced to prevent arms trafficking and extremist infiltration, with technical assistance from the Gulf Cooperation Council

In this alternate timeline, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) would have faced a more united Yemeni response, preventing the territorial gains they made during the actual conflict. Without the chaos of civil war, AQAP would have struggled to present itself as a defender against foreign intervention.

Humanitarian and Economic Stabilization

The prevention of war would have averted Yemen's humanitarian catastrophe. Without conflict and blockade, the immediate focus would have shifted to addressing Yemen's pre-existing challenges:

International donors would have funded economic stabilization packages conditioned on implementation of the peace agreement
The Gulf Cooperation Council, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, would commit to multi-billion dollar reconstruction and development funds
Critical infrastructure improvements would begin, focusing on electricity generation, water systems, and transportation networks
Public health initiatives would strengthen Yemen's fragile healthcare system, preventing the cholera epidemics that ravaged the country in our timeline

While Yemen would still face significant economic challenges, the stability dividend would be substantial. The World Bank and IMF would work with the unity government to implement structural reforms, stabilize the currency, and rebuild financial institutions.

Regional Diplomatic Realignment

The successful prevention of Yemen's civil war would have significant regional implications:

Saudi Arabia would claim diplomatic victory for supporting a peaceful solution, while quietly maintaining influence through economic ties and security cooperation
Iran would maintain limited soft power through cultural and religious connections with Zaidi Shias but would lack the military foothold it gained in our timeline
Oman, which in the actual timeline played a neutral mediating role, would strengthen its economic ties with a stable Yemen, developing critical infrastructure linking the Arabian Peninsula
The United Arab Emirates would redirect investments originally intended for military bases and proxy forces toward commercial ports and economic zones, particularly in southern governorates

By early 2015, when the actual Saudi intervention began in our timeline, this alternate Yemen would instead be hosting international donor conferences and investment forums, signaling a dramatically different trajectory for the country.

Public Sentiment and Civil Society

Yemeni civil society, which was devastated by the war in our timeline, would instead flourish in this period:

Independent media would expand, creating accountability mechanisms absent during the Saleh era
Women's organizations, which played a significant role in the National Dialogue, would push for implementation of gender equality provisions
Youth activists would transition from protest movements to formal political participation and community development initiatives
Tribal leaders would gradually shift from military mobilization toward civic engagement and conflict resolution

The sense of national unity that briefly emerged during the 2011 revolution might have been partially recaptured, though regional, sectarian, and political divisions would persist as challenges requiring ongoing dialogue and compromise.

Long-term Impact

Political Evolution and Democratic Development

By the late 2020s, Yemen's political landscape would have evolved considerably from the 2014 power-sharing agreement. The initial unity government, designed as a transitional arrangement, would likely have given way to more formalized democratic institutions and processes.

Constitutional Framework and Federalism

A revised constitution, building on the uncompleted work of the National Dialogue Conference, would likely have been ratified by 2018. This constitution would establish:

A federal system with 4-5 regions (rather than the rejected 6-region model) with substantial autonomy
Strong protections for minority rights and regional representation
Institutional checks and balances, including an independent judiciary
Mechanisms for resource and revenue sharing between the regions and central government

The southern separatist movement would have evolved, with many of its leaders integrated into the federal governance structure. While calls for independence would continue from some factions, the improved governance and economic development in southern regions would diminish the movement's broader appeal.

Electoral Politics and Party Development

By 2025, Yemen would likely have held two rounds of national elections (perhaps in 2019 and 2023). These elections, while imperfect, would establish patterns of democratic competition and peaceful power transitions absent in Yemen's history:

The Houthis would transform from a militia into a political party (perhaps called Ansar Allah), maintaining strong support in the northern highlands but participating in national politics
The General People's Congress would fracture following Saleh's marginalization, with reformist elements forming new political alliances
Islah would remain a significant force but would face competition from emerging secular and issue-based parties
New political movements representing youth, women, and technocrats would gain representation

Yemen's democracy would remain fragile, with periodic crises and power struggles, but the institutional framework established after 2014 would provide mechanisms for resolving these disputes without returning to armed conflict.

Economic Reconstruction and Development

Without the devastating destruction of war, Yemen's economy would follow a very different trajectory, though significant challenges would remain:

Energy Sector Revitalization

Oil and gas production, which collapsed during the actual conflict, would instead see steady expansion, with output potentially doubling by 2025 compared to 2014 levels
New exploration agreements with international energy companies would bring modern extraction technologies and increase proven reserves
Yemen would develop limited refining capacity, reducing dependence on imported fuel products
Renewable energy projects, particularly solar power, would begin large-scale deployment by the early 2020s

Infrastructure and Connectivity

The absence of war would preserve existing infrastructure while enabling critical new developments:

Port modernization at Aden, Hodeidah, and Mukalla would increase cargo capacity and efficiency
Road networks connecting major population centers would be rehabilitated and expanded
Digital infrastructure would develop rapidly, with mobile banking and internet penetration rates approaching regional averages by 2025
Water management systems, including dams, desalination plants, and distribution networks, would address chronic water shortages

Economic Diversification and Employment

Yemen's economy would begin a gradual diversification beyond resource extraction:

Agricultural productivity would increase through irrigation improvements, modern farming techniques, and better market access
Tourism would slowly reemerge as a viable sector, centered on Yemen's unique cultural heritage and natural beauty
Small manufacturing enterprises would develop, initially focusing on food processing and construction materials
Youth unemployment, while still high, would trend downward as economic opportunities expanded

By 2025, Yemen would remain among the Arab world's poorest countries, but would be on a positive developmental trajectory rather than facing economic collapse.

Social Transformation and Human Development

The prevention of war would dramatically alter the trajectory of human development indicators in Yemen:

Health and Education

Child mortality rates would continue their pre-war decline, with improvements in vaccination coverage and maternal health
The education system would undergo reforms, increasing enrollment rates particularly for girls in rural areas
Public health infrastructure would strengthen, preventing the cholera and diphtheria outbreaks that affected millions in our timeline
Yemen would begin addressing chronic malnutrition, which stunted development for generations of children

Urbanization and Migration

Internal displacement, which affected over 4 million people in our timeline, would be limited to localized events related to natural disasters or isolated security incidents
Urban centers would continue to grow, but through more managed processes rather than conflict-driven displacement
Significant numbers of Yemenis would continue seeking economic opportunities abroad, but as migrant workers rather than refugees
The Yemeni diaspora would increasingly invest in homeland development, creating transnational economic networks

Social Cohesion and Identity

Without the polarizing effects of war, Yemen's complex social fabric would evolve differently:

Sectarian identity (Zaidi Shia vs. Sunni) would remain a factor in Yemeni society but would not become the primary fault line it did during the conflict
Tribal structures would continue their gradual transformation, maintaining importance in rural areas while adapting to modern governance
Regional identities would strengthen under federalism, but within a national framework rather than as competing sovereignties
Women's role in public life would gradually expand, building on their significant participation in the 2011 revolution and subsequent dialogues

Regional Geopolitical Implications

The prevention of Yemen's civil war would reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics in several significant ways:

Saudi-Iranian Relations

Without Yemen as a proxy battlefield, Saudi-Iranian competition would follow a different course:

Both powers would maintain influence networks within Yemen but through primarily political and economic means
Their regional competition would focus more on Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, potentially with less militarized approaches having seen the benefits of diplomacy in Yemen
The historic 2023 Saudi-Iranian normalization (brokered by China in our timeline) might have occurred earlier and on different terms

Gulf States' Security Paradigm

Saudi Arabia would avoid the tremendous financial and reputational costs of the Yemen intervention, estimated at over $100 billion
The UAE would focus its regional strategy more on economic expansion and less on military positioning
Gulf military spending might increase more gradually without the urgent catalyst of the Yemen conflict
Regional missile defense systems would develop with less urgency without Houthi missile attacks on Saudi infrastructure

Maritime Security and Global Trade

Without the threat to shipping posed by the conflict, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden would maintain their role as critical global trade arteries:

Insurance premiums for vessels transiting the area would remain at normal levels, avoiding the dramatic increases seen during the conflict
International naval missions would focus primarily on counter-piracy rather than protecting commercial shipping from militant attacks
Yemen's ports would develop as regional logistics hubs rather than being subject to blockades and restrictions
Global energy markets would avoid the periodic shocks caused by attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure

Expert Opinions

Dr. Najwa Al-Dawsari, Yemen Conflict Resolution Specialist at the Middle East Institute, offers this perspective: "The prevention of Yemen's civil war represents one of the great 'what ifs' of modern conflict prevention. The elements for success were actually present in 2014—engaged international mediators, concerned regional powers, and Yemeni leaders who understood the catastrophic potential of full-scale war. What was missing was the political courage to make difficult compromises and the international commitment to support a sustainable peace process. In this alternate scenario, Yemen would still face enormous challenges, but these would be development challenges rather than humanitarian catastrophes. Most importantly, a generation of Yemenis would have grown up experiencing gradual progress rather than traumatic conflict."

Professor Ibrahim Fraihat, Conflict Resolution Expert at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, suggests: "The Yemen case demonstrates how regional proxy conflicts can be prevented through early, decisive diplomatic intervention. In this counterfactual scenario, the key was breaking the security dilemma between Saudi Arabia and Iran before it militarized. By addressing both powers' core security concerns while establishing international guarantees, this alternate timeline created space for Yemeni solutions to Yemeni problems. The GCC and UN would have played complementary roles—the GCC providing economic incentives and the UN the legal framework and monitoring mechanisms. This successful model might have influenced approaches to other regional conflicts, potentially changing the broader trajectory of Middle Eastern geopolitics toward diplomatic rather than military solutions."

Dr. Sarah Phillips, Yemen Politics and Security Expert at the University of Sydney, analyzes: "What's fascinating about this alternate Yemen scenario is how it illuminates the actual costs of the war—not just in lives and infrastructure, but in lost potential. Without the war, Yemen's robust civil society, entrepreneurial private sector, and traditional conflict resolution mechanisms would have continued evolving and adapting. The relationship between center and periphery, always contentious in Yemen, could have found a more sustainable equilibrium through federalism. While Yemen would still be struggling with water scarcity, climate change, and governance challenges, it would be doing so from a position of basic stability rather than fragmentation. This counterfactual reminds us that Yemen's tragic outcome was not inevitable but resulted from specific policy choices by domestic and international actors."