What If Tunis Developed Different Tourism Strategies?

The Actual History

Tunisia's tourism industry began its significant development in the 1960s under President Habib Bourguiba, who took power after the country gained independence from France in 1956. Recognizing tourism's potential as a driver of economic growth and foreign exchange earnings, Bourguiba's government implemented the first tourism development plan in 1962. This plan established the framework for what would become Tunisia's dominant tourism model: mass beach tourism concentrated along the country's eastern Mediterranean coastline.

Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, the Tunisian government heavily invested in coastal tourism infrastructure, particularly in zones like Hammamet, Sousse, Monastir, and the island of Djerba. Large hotel complexes were built with government subsidies and attractive conditions for foreign investors. The tourism development strategy was centralized and state-directed, focusing on creating standardized facilities that could accommodate large numbers of European tourists seeking sun, sand, and sea at affordable prices.

When Zine El Abidine Ben Ali came to power in 1987, this mass tourism model was further intensified. The government created specialized agencies like the Agence Foncière Touristique (AFT) to manage land acquisition and development for tourism projects. The Tourism Investment Code of 1993 offered significant fiscal advantages to investors, including tax exemptions, reduced customs duties, and state participation in infrastructure costs. During this period, Tunisia positioned itself as a budget Mediterranean destination primarily targeting package tourists from Western Europe, especially France, Germany, Italy, and the UK.

By the early 2000s, tourism had become one of Tunisia's economic pillars, accounting for approximately 7% of GDP and employing (directly and indirectly) about 400,000 people, or roughly 12% of the workforce. In 2010, before the Arab Spring, Tunisia welcomed nearly 7 million international tourists.

However, this development model had significant weaknesses. Tourism was highly seasonal, with most visitors arriving during the summer months. It was also geographically concentrated in coastal enclaves that had little connection to local communities or authentic Tunisian culture. Most importantly, the industry was vulnerable to external shocks. The 2002 Al-Qaeda bombing of a synagogue in Djerba, the 2008 global financial crisis, and most dramatically, the 2011 Jasmine Revolution (which sparked the Arab Spring) each caused severe downturns in visitor numbers.

The 2011 revolution initially devastated Tunisia's tourism industry, with arrivals dropping by 45%. While the sector began to recover in subsequent years, two major terrorist attacks targeting tourists in 2015 (at the Bardo Museum in Tunis and at a beach resort in Sousse) again severely damaged the industry. Although Tunisia had begun efforts to diversify its tourism offerings in the 2000s, including some promotion of Saharan, cultural, and archaeological tourism, these remained secondary to the dominant mass beach tourism model.

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 delivered another severe blow, with international arrivals dropping by 65%. By 2023, while tourism had begun recovering, it remained below pre-pandemic levels, and the industry continued to face challenges including infrastructure deterioration, environmental degradation in coastal areas, and competition from other Mediterranean destinations offering similar products often with better quality-to-price ratios.

Throughout this history, alternative tourism development paths—focusing on cultural heritage, eco-tourism, historical sites like Carthage, unique desert experiences, or Tunisia's rich culinary traditions—remained largely unexplored or underdeveloped at the national planning level, despite the country's diverse potential tourist attractions beyond its beaches.

The Point of Divergence

What if Tunisia had pursued a fundamentally different tourism development strategy from the beginning? In this alternate timeline, we explore a scenario where Tunisia, during its critical early development period in the 1960s, chose a more diversified, culturally-oriented, and spatially distributed approach to tourism rather than concentrating primarily on mass beach tourism.

The point of divergence occurs in 1962, when President Habib Bourguiba and his key economic advisors were formulating Tunisia's first tourism development plan. In our timeline, they prioritized rapid development of standardized coastal facilities to maximize foreign exchange earnings and create jobs quickly. But several factors could have led to a different decision:

Perhaps Bourguiba, who was deeply committed to modernizing Tunisia while preserving its cultural identity, might have been more convinced by advisors arguing for tourism development that showcased Tunisia's rich heritage—from its Berber traditions to its Phoenician, Roman, Byzantine, Arab, and Ottoman influences. After all, Bourguiba himself was educated in France and was keenly aware of how cultural heritage tourism functioned in Europe.

Alternatively, Tunisia's early economic planners might have observed emerging trends in global tourism that suggested higher value in unique cultural experiences rather than standardized beach packages. Several influential economic studies in the early 1960s were beginning to highlight the limitations of mass tourism models and the potential of more diversified approaches.

A third possibility is that international development partners, particularly UNESCO or the World Bank, could have exerted greater influence toward cultural preservation and sustainable tourism development. In 1962, UNESCO was already involved in saving the Abu Simbel temples in neighboring Egypt, raising awareness about cultural heritage preservation throughout the region.

In this alternate timeline, the 1962 Tourism Development Plan takes a fundamentally different approach, establishing several key principles:

Geographic diversification, developing tourism across Tunisia's varied landscapes rather than concentrating on coastal areas
Cultural authenticity as a core selling point, with preservation and showcasing of Tunisia's architectural and archaeological heritage
Integration of tourism with local communities and traditional economic activities
Higher-value, lower-volume tourism targeting visitors seeking cultural experiences
Year-round tourism potential rather than seasonal concentration

This different strategic vision, established at the founding moment of Tunisia's tourism industry, sets the stage for a dramatically different developmental trajectory over the subsequent decades.

Immediate Aftermath

Initial Investment Patterns (1962-1970)

In the immediate years following the adoption of this alternative tourism strategy, Tunisia's development of tourism infrastructure took a markedly different path. Rather than concentrating capital in large coastal hotel projects, the government directed investment toward:

Restoration and accessibility improvements for archaeological sites: Tunisia's Roman sites such as Dougga, Sbeitla, and El Jem received early attention, with improved access roads, visitor centers, and conservation work. The Phoenician/Roman city of Carthage near Tunis became a centerpiece attraction, receiving significant investment to create a world-class archaeological park.
Adaptive reuse of historic buildings: Instead of building new hotel complexes, many traditional buildings in historic cities were renovated as boutique accommodations. The medinas (old cities) of Tunis, Kairouan, and Sousse saw controlled restoration programs where historic homes were converted to small hotels while preserving their architectural character.
Transportation infrastructure: Rather than focusing exclusively on airport development in coastal areas, Tunisia invested in a more balanced transportation network, improving roads to interior regions and enhancing rail connections between cultural sites.

These initial investments were more modest in scale than the large coastal resorts of our timeline, resulting in slower immediate growth in tourist numbers. By 1970, Tunisia received approximately 400,000 international visitors in this alternate timeline, compared to nearly 600,000 in our actual history. However, these visitors stayed longer on average and spent more per day, resulting in similar overall revenue.

Cultural Preservation Policies (1965-1975)

The Tunisian government implemented several innovative policies during this period that would have long-lasting effects:

The Cultural Heritage Protection Act of 1965: This legislation established strict controls on development near historic sites and created funding mechanisms for restoration work, partially financed by tourism revenues. A percentage of all tourism earnings was directed to a Cultural Preservation Fund.
The Traditional Crafts Initiative (1967): This program provided training, certification, and marketing support for traditional artisans, connecting them directly to the tourism market while maintaining quality standards. Crafts villages were established in key tourist regions, allowing visitors to observe and participate in traditional craft-making.
The Culinary Heritage Program (1969): Tunisia began promoting its distinctive cuisine as a tourism asset, establishing culinary training centers that preserved traditional cooking methods while adapting them to international tourism standards.

These policies helped prevent the erosion of cultural authenticity that often accompanies tourism development, while also creating economic opportunities for Tunisians outside the hotel industry.

International Partnerships (1966-1974)

Tunisia's alternative approach attracted different international partners than in our timeline:

UNESCO Partnership (1966): Tunisia became an early pilot country for UNESCO's cultural tourism initiatives, receiving technical assistance and international recognition for its innovative approach to heritage preservation.
High-End European Tour Operators (1968-1970): Instead of mass-market package tour companies, Tunisia attracted specialized cultural tour operators from France, Italy, and Germany, who developed itineraries focused on archaeological sites, culinary experiences, and cultural immersion.
Educational Tourism (1972): Several European and American universities established study abroad programs in Tunisia, focusing on archaeology, Islamic architecture, and Mediterranean cultural studies, creating a steady stream of educational tourists.

These partnerships shifted Tunisia's tourism market from mass budget travelers to higher-spending cultural tourists, including many professionals, academics, and retirees with greater disposable income.

Economic and Social Impact (1970-1980)

By the mid-1970s, the economic and social impacts of this alternative strategy became apparent:

Employment Patterns: Rather than concentrating tourism jobs in coastal hotel enclaves, employment was distributed more evenly throughout the country. Jobs were also more diverse, including roles as cultural guides, craftspeople, restoration specialists, and small business owners, many requiring higher skill levels than typical hotel service positions.
Reduced Seasonality: Cultural tourism proved less seasonal than beach tourism, with more consistent visitor numbers throughout the year. This created more stable, year-round employment and reduced the strain on infrastructure during peak periods.
Cultural Identity: Unlike in our timeline, where tourism often created cultural alienation in coastal areas, Tunisia's focus on authentic cultural experiences strengthened cultural identity and pride among local populations, who saw their heritage valued by visitors.
Environmental Impact: The absence of large-scale coastal development preserved much of Tunisia's Mediterranean shoreline from the concrete sprawl seen in our timeline, maintaining ecological integrity and leaving future options open for more sustainable coastal development.

By 1980, though Tunisia hosted fewer total tourists than in our timeline (approximately 1.8 million versus 2.3 million), tourism revenue was actually higher due to longer stays and higher per-visitor spending. More importantly, the benefits were distributed more equitably throughout Tunisian society, laying the groundwork for more sustainable long-term development.

Long-term Impact

Economic Diversification and Resilience (1980-2000)

As Tunisia entered the 1980s, the long-term economic benefits of its alternative tourism strategy became increasingly apparent. Unlike in our timeline, where tourism developed as a somewhat isolated sector with limited linkages to other parts of the economy, the distributed cultural tourism model created numerous economic synergies:

Agricultural Integration: Tunisia's focus on culinary heritage tourism created strong demand for traditional and local agricultural products. Farmers began producing higher-value organic olives, dates, and vegetables specifically for the tourism market. By 1990, an estimated 20% of small farm income came directly or indirectly from tourism, compared to less than 5% in our timeline.
Craft Industries Renaissance: Traditional crafts such as carpet-making, pottery, metalwork, and textiles experienced a significant revival. Unlike the mass-produced "airport art" common in many tourism destinations, Tunisia's craft certification system maintained quality and authenticity. By 1995, craft exports had grown to become Tunisia's fourth-largest export category, with many international buyers first encountering these products as tourists.
Digital Heritage Leadership (1990s): When digital technologies emerged in the 1990s, Tunisia was well-positioned to become a leader in digital heritage preservation and interpretation. The Tunisian Digital Heritage Institute, established in 1994, pioneered virtual reconstruction of archaeological sites and digital archiving of cultural artifacts, creating yet another economic sector linked to cultural tourism.

This economic diversification created crucial resilience. When the global tourism industry faced downturns—such as during the Gulf War of 1990-91 or the post-9/11 period—Tunisia's economy proved more adaptable than in our timeline, with complementary sectors able to absorb displaced workers from tourism.

Spatial Development and Urbanization (1985-2010)

The geographic distribution of tourism investment dramatically altered Tunisia's urbanization patterns compared to our timeline:

Interior Region Development: Cities like Kairouan, Sbeitla, and Tozeur, largely bypassed by economic development in our timeline, became thriving tourism centers with restored historic cores and improved infrastructure. This created economic opportunities that prevented the rural-to-coastal migration that characterized our timeline.
Medina Revitalization: The historic medinas of Tunisian cities, which in our timeline often suffered from disinvestment and deterioration, became vibrant mixed-use neighborhoods where tourism, residential, and commercial activities coexisted. Tunis medina, instead of becoming primarily a tourist souvenir market as in our timeline, maintained its authentic character as a living urban center with tourism as just one component.
Desert Settlements: In southern Tunisia, traditional desert settlements like Matmata, Tamerza, and Chenini were carefully preserved and adapted for tourism, creating economic opportunities that prevented depopulation while maintaining traditional building techniques and water management systems.
Coastal Development: Tunisia's Mediterranean coast still saw tourism development, but at a much smaller scale and higher quality than in our timeline. Rather than wall-to-wall hotel complexes, coastal areas featured smaller, architecturally distinct resorts integrated with fishing villages and agricultural lands.

By 2010, Tunisia had achieved a much more balanced spatial development pattern, avoiding the stark coastal-interior divide that characterized our timeline.

Political and Social Stability (2000-2011)

Perhaps the most significant divergence from our timeline emerged in the realm of politics and social stability:

Reduced Inequality: The more distributed economic benefits of cultural tourism helped prevent the extreme regional economic disparities that contributed to the 2011 revolution in our timeline. Interior regions, which in our history became hotbeds of discontent due to economic marginalization, instead had viable economic bases through tourism and related industries.
Civil Society Development: The cultural tourism model necessitated greater community involvement and local decision-making than mass beach tourism. This fostered the development of active civil society organizations focused on heritage preservation, environmental protection, and community development. These organizations became important channels for civic participation, creating pressure valves for social and political tensions.
Reduced Corruption: The smaller scale of tourism investments and their geographic distribution made the large-scale corruption of the Ben Ali regime's tourism development (which in our timeline concentrated wealth among presidential family members) more difficult. While corruption certainly still existed, it was less centralized and systemic.
International Exposure: The cultural tourism model brought international visitors into more diverse settings across Tunisia, creating widespread cultural exchange rather than isolating tourists in coastal enclaves. This expanded exposure to democratic norms and practices throughout Tunisian society.

When the Arab Spring erupted across the region in early 2011, Tunisia's trajectory diverged significantly from our timeline. While political protests still occurred calling for greater democratization, they were less driven by economic desperation and regional marginalization. The transition was consequently more orderly and less economically disruptive.

Global Reputation and Terrorism Resilience (2011-2025)

In the post-Arab Spring era, Tunisia's different tourism development model created significant advantages:

Terrorism Target Reduction: The absence of large concentrations of Western tourists in easily targeted beach resorts made Tunisia a less attractive target for terrorist attacks. While the country still faced security challenges, it avoided the devastating tourism-focused attacks that occurred at the Bardo Museum and Sousse beach in our timeline's 2015.
Crisis Recovery Capacity: When security incidents did occur, the tourism industry showed greater resilience than in our timeline. The diversified nature of attractions meant that even if one region faced security concerns, others could continue operating. The industry's integration with other economic sectors also provided economic buffers during downturns.
Climate Change Adaptation: As climate change intensified in the 2010s and 2020s, Tunisia's less beach-dependent tourism model proved advantageous. While rising sea levels and increasing summer heat threatened traditional Mediterranean beach tourism, Tunisia's focus on cultural experiences, many in climate-controlled historic buildings or during spring and fall seasons, kept tourism viable.
Pandemic Response: When COVID-19 struck in 2020, Tunisia's tourism industry, though severely impacted like all global tourism, recovered more quickly than in our timeline. The predominance of smaller accommodations over large hotels, more outdoor cultural activities, and stronger domestic tourism base (developed over decades) provided greater adaptability.

By 2025, Tunisia has established itself as the leading cultural tourism destination in North Africa, with a reputation for authenticity, sustainability, and quality that distinguishes it from mass tourism competitors. Its tourism model is increasingly studied as an exemplar for developing nations seeking to balance tourism development with cultural preservation and distributed economic benefits.

Expert Opinions

Dr. Yasmine Mahmoud, Professor of Sustainable Tourism Development at the University of Cambridge, offers this perspective:

"Tunisia's alternative tourism development path represents one of the most successful cases of breaking the 'pleasure periphery' model that dominated tourism development in the Global South during the latter half of the 20th century. By rejecting the standardized mass beach tourism template pushed by international hotel chains and tour operators, Tunisia maintained agency over its own development trajectory. The distributed cultural tourism model required more patience initially—it didn't deliver the immediate foreign exchange influx of mass tourism—but it built a far more resilient economic foundation. Most importantly, it avoided the cultural alienation and environmental degradation we've seen in destinations that adopted the mass coastal tourism model. The question isn't whether Tunisia made the right choice in this timeline, but rather why more countries didn't follow similar paths."

Dr. Mohamed Larbi, Economic Historian at the Institut National du Patrimoine in Tunis, provides a more nuanced view:

"While Tunisia's alternative tourism strategy yielded impressive long-term benefits, we shouldn't romanticize it as having been without challenges. The early decades required difficult tradeoffs, including slower job creation than mass tourism would have provided. Political leadership had to withstand significant pressure from international hotel chains and development banks pushing for larger, standardized projects. And we must acknowledge that the cultural tourism model initially benefited educated Tunisians with language skills and cultural knowledge more than it did those with limited education. What makes Tunisia's case remarkable is not that these challenges were avoided, but that the government maintained its commitment to the distributed cultural model long enough for its broader benefits to materialize. Many countries have attempted similar approaches but abandoned them when facing short-term political pressures for faster job creation."

Rebecca Johnson, Senior Advisor at the World Tourism Organization and former head of UNESCO's Sustainable Tourism Initiative, contextualizes Tunisia's experience within global tourism trends:

"What's fascinating about Tunisia's alternative development path is how it anticipated global tourism trends that wouldn't become mainstream until decades later. The emphasis on authentic experiences, cultural immersion, and environmental sustainability that Tunisia pioneered in the 1960s and 70s only became industry buzzwords in the 2000s. While major Mediterranean destinations now struggle to 'de-massify' their tourism sectors and retrofit cultural authenticity onto overdeveloped coastal strips, Tunisia built these elements into its tourism DNA from the beginning. The country's approach to balancing preservation with access, maintaining living cultural traditions rather than fossilizing them for tourist consumption, offers valuable lessons for destinations worldwide. Perhaps most impressive is how Tunisia used tourism as a tool for cultural revitalization rather than allowing it to become a force for cultural erosion."